How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[iabs]

Quoting for future reference lol

That dude is legit deranged.

[wincel]

Quoting for future reference lol

you laugh but that is how exponential growth works...in fact at current rates, it would be like 50M, but the virus will obviously slow down at some point and run its course before that so I am estimating it will reach near its maximal death toll by may 1, probably 1-2 M americans will die...maybe more.

There are 36 days from now until then. It looks from the graph to be multiplying by 2.5 every 3 days or so. So, you can see how fast it will explode.

[JoshSP1985]

How? Everything is shut down.

Hardly.

Most of the country has been working and will continue to be working. A vast majority of jobs are considered essential services. The rest of the people are retired and or making their daily grocery runs trying to get their TP supply up to 1 year.

[Reliance012]

How? Everything is shut down.

Many things are shut down, which is why it’ll be 3-6k in a week, and not 10-12k.

[JoshSP1985]

you laugh but that is how exponential growth works...in fact at current rates, it would be like 50M, but the virus will obviously slow down at some point and run its course before that so I am estimating it will reach near its maximal death toll by may 1, probably 1-2 M americans will die...maybe more.

And if they're not even remotely close? How will you reconcile that your math failed you?

[Slayermanlet]

What government policy?

FFS

I said that the death rate will depend on government policy

The "policy" in my statement was not specifying any particular policy, but making the point that the government's actions over the next weeks/months are a factor in what the eventual death rate will be

For example, there's a wide range of moves with Draconian Chinese measures on one end and doing very little on the other.....

How? Everything is shut down.

That does not stop it from spreading, only slows it down

[Lefticle]

you laugh but that is how exponential growth works...in fact at current rates, it would be like 50M, but the virus will obviously slow down at some point and run its course before that so I am estimating it will reach near its maximal death toll by may 1, probably 1-2 M americans will die...maybe more.

There are 36 days from now until then. It looks from the graph to be multiplying by 2.5 every 3 days or so. So, you can see how fast it will explode.

You are insane.

[Reliance012]

you laugh but that is how exponential growth works...in fact at current rates, it would be like 50M, but the virus will obviously slow down at some point and run its course before that so I am estimating it will reach near its maximal death toll by may 1, probably 1-2 M americans will die...maybe more.

There are 36 days from now until then. It looks from the graph to be multiplying by 2.5 every 3 days or so. So, you can see how fast it will explode.

I don’t think so. The rate of spread will plummet as weather warms, just like influenza does. Influenza kills very few in April relative Jan and Feb. I also think people are underestimating how much quarantining, even if imperfect, can reduce spread.

I will say if this virus starting taking off in Oct/Nov in the US, and we did nothing about it, we’d hit a death toll in the millions. No question.

[wincel]

Careful what you wish for, if daddy goes who will take care of you?

You don't think I'm scared chitless for my dad? I'm keeping him indoors. Told him to wait til mid may. He's pissed af at me, but my brother told him as well so he is listening to us.

[wincel]

You are insane.

2.5^(36/3) times the base amount of about 1k. That's way more than the mortality rate would allow, meaning we will probably reach full saturation sooner. It's not insane. It's just math.

[FatBallz]

2.5^(36/3) times the base amount of about 1k. That's way more than the mortality rate would allow, meaning we will probably reach full saturation sooner. It's not insane. It's just math.

Have you considered that things aren't always linear and there can be other influencing factors to change the rate?

[wincel]

I don’t think so. The rate of spread will plummet as weather warms, just like influenza does. Influenza kills very few in April relative Jan and Feb. I also think people are underestimating how much quarantining, even if imperfect, can reduce spread.

I will say if this virus starting taking off in Oct/Nov in the US, and we did nothing about it, we’d hit a death toll in the millions. No question.

I was just extrapolating by current trends. It is possible the quarantining will help a lot since that probably isn't reflected in the trend yet.

[ScottTil]

Heres to hoping less than 20k.
Would be extremely surprised if it was more than 100k.

[ImpressiveGainz]

We're at what, ~600 deaths now, if that number is even accurate. I don't think it'll be much over 1k, honestly, and everyone who does die will be really old or have some condition that would cause them to die if they got a cold.

Are we counting the morons who self-suicide by fish cleaner?

[TEGGSRB18C1]

Less than 5k but it's going to be hard to get the real number because a lot of flu related deaths will be lumped in with the covid number.

Exactly, we'll never know the real number because there are so many people invested in this "CRISIS OMG CANT WORK" mentality that they'll gladly lie to keep the paranoia high.

[JoshSP1985]

Set a reminder to bump this thread on May 1. I'll bump if it it doesn't get bumped before I get to work.

[Audioslave]

We're at what, ~600 deaths now, if that number is even accurate. I don't think it'll be much over 1k, honestly, and everyone who does die will be really old or have some condition that would cause them to die if they got a cold.

Are we counting the morons who self-suicide by fish cleaner?

We passed 1,000 confirmed deaths.

[wincel]

Have you considered that things aren't always linear and there can be other influencing factors to change the rate?

Yes. I was just using it to show that at those rates, the growth would easily explode out of control beyond what the mortality rate should be, implying that the virus will take full effect sooner than may 1. I stand by this unless the quarantine isn't reflected in the current trend.

If I'm right, by mid may we will all be over this mostly as a country, but the death toll will be awful. Also not looking forward to the economic and political instability that will follow. There could be war.

[ImpressiveGainz]

We passed 1,000 confirmed deaths.

Yeah, I just looked again. Still don't think we hit the 2k mark.

[Dave22reborn]

Many things are shut down, which is why it’ll be 3-6k in a week, and not 10-12k.

One week from now we'll have 3-6 thousand deaths from this virus alone?

[wincel]

One week from now we'll have 3-6 thousand deaths from this virus alone?

yea if things keep going by the trend...like in 3 days it should be 2.5k or so

[Slayermanlet]

Yeah, I just looked again. Still don't think we hit the 2k mark.

Why not? It's blindingly obvious that you will unfortunately. You think the virus will just randomly disappear?

[Dave22reborn]

Heres to hoping less than 20k.
Would be extremely surprised if it was more than 100k.

20K in the US alone will die from this virus by May 1st? It's around 21K worldwide right now, and it's been a couple of months.

[wincel]

20K in the US alone will die from this virus by May 1st? It's around 21K worldwide right now, and it's been a couple of months.

It's spreading faster in the us because we didn't take actions to really slow it down. China has also lied. Who knows how many died there?

Also, you're failing to see exponential growth. Long tail, rapid rise. Think.

[ImpressiveGainz]

Why not? It's blindingly obvious that you will unfortunately. You think the virus will just randomly disappear?

Explain South Korea.

[JUSA]

yea if things keep going by the trend...like in 3 days it should be 2.5k or so

#RemindMe March 29th

Explain South Korea.

Meh, it's silly to compare us to Italy but it's also silly to compare us to SK. They have much more testing, didn't quarantine, are trying promising experimental treatment that our media is saying kills you and Governor(s) are banning and such. Not a good way to directly compare. I think it absolutely will crest 2K, probably in the next week or so.

[Slayermanlet]

Explain South Korea.

Superior strategy and leadership

Never allowed it to get out of control in the first place

[Audioslave]

Yeah, I just looked again. Still don't think we hit the 2k mark.

The problem with this poll is that there is a big difference between confirmed deaths and estimated deaths. For the 2009 H1N1 pandemic the WHO confirmed 18k deaths but estimated 284k deaths. There can be a big difference between the two. Right now there are only 510k confirmed cases in the world with 23k confirmed deaths. If we just go by confirmed numbers the death rate worldwide would be almost 5%. The truth is, far more people have this virus and probably far more have died from it. So, until the smoke clears and we get estimates, we don't really have the information.

[ImpressiveGainz]

#RemindMe March 29th

Meh, it's silly to compare us to Italy but it's also silly to compare us to SK. They have much more testing, didn't quarantine, are trying promising experimental treatment that our media is saying kills you and Governor(s) are banning and such. Not a good way to directly compare. I think it absolutely will crest 2K, probably in the next week or so.

My point about SK is that they have a very good healthcare system. The US has the best healthcare system in the world, regardless of what some retarded WHO people say about Italy. Anyone who dies from this crap here would have died from pretty much any sort of illness, so I think it's under control.

[Slayermanlet]

My point about SK is that they have a very good healthcare system. The US has the best healthcare system in the world, regardless of what some retarded WHO people say about Italy. Anyone who dies from this crap here would have died from pretty much any sort of illness, so I think it's under control.

LMAO

So according to you, nobody should die from Covid in the US because your healthcare is too good?