geek paper on r0
https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teach...ones-on-R0.pdf
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Thread: Actual death rate is likely .06%
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03-26-2020, 07:03 AM #91
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03-26-2020, 07:06 AM #92
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03-26-2020, 07:09 AM #93
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03-26-2020, 07:17 AM #94
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03-26-2020, 07:20 AM #95
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03-26-2020, 07:22 AM #96
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03-26-2020, 07:25 AM #97
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03-26-2020, 07:29 AM #98
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03-26-2020, 07:30 AM #99
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03-26-2020, 07:39 AM #100
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03-26-2020, 07:46 AM #101
you do exactly that.
the CFR is largely irrelevant to the DURATION of a national outbreak. the spread from one region to the next increases the duration. compare south korea's seoul and deagu numbers. SK was DONE with the outbreak in 17 days. italy is passing the 30 day mark and will post 6-8% today.
the best thing for the economy is to blast through it quickly. the best way to blast through it quickly is to lock shiit down.
the death rate doesnt matter shiit to the market. if its .01% it means the shiit wasnt very deadly. if its 5% it means the shiit was kinda deadly. who cares.
there is a breakpoint somehwere, where its better to give it to everyone in the country all at once, willingly. but that point is 10-20x+?? what any country will see and thats a massive mult-year (economically) disaster that no country will see.do not read my posts and weep, i am not there i do not sleep
i am the thousand greens that rep, i am the ban bet dutifully kept
of memes and trolls in toasted breads, i am not there, i am not dead.
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03-26-2020, 07:53 AM #102
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03-26-2020, 07:56 AM #103
the best thing for the economy is once we start posting single digit rate increases, we start widespread testing, especially in metro areas that did* see outbreaks. this drives down the CFR and in a month this whole thing looks like it was no big deal.
a political spinoff is that our CFR will be 10x better than italy and no one will mention single payer healthcare for 20 years.do not read my posts and weep, i am not there i do not sleep
i am the thousand greens that rep, i am the ban bet dutifully kept
of memes and trolls in toasted breads, i am not there, i am not dead.
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03-26-2020, 08:18 AM #104
Doctors are retarded half the time, they have a very specific set of skills and have a very narrow view of what's important. Just because you know a lot about medicine it doesn't mean you know how to analyze and interpret statistics or are immune to media fear mongering. They don't know how to calculate the cost/benefit ratio of shutting down the economy over this virus. All they're considering is that their job is going to get harder and they are obviously victims of confirmation bias since they obviously tend to see more severe cases of the illness because they work in a hospital.
They just repeat whatever is the currently the established medical consensus, which in this case changes literally every day. Literally just a week ago every doctor was saying that masks don't protect you from getting sick because that's what they heard somewhere, which the average population knew was retarded. Now the script has completely flipped and they're saying we should all wear masks.Last edited by proteinsnake; 03-26-2020 at 08:24 AM.
500lb Squat
375lb Bench
675lb Deadlift
201lbs Bodyweight
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03-26-2020, 08:26 AM #105
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03-26-2020, 08:32 AM #106
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03-26-2020, 08:32 AM #107
Yup, I don't know why people think medical doctors are the epitome of intelligence. They have a great ability to memorize information and study really fukkin hard, that's about it. Doctors are not taught to think independently, because in medicine that gets people killed. They're taught to sift through the knowledge they've acquired through years of study and apply it to the current medical problem.
I don't know why people think that qualifies them as an authority on how to handle a pandemic on an anthropological scale. Stick to medicine.500lb Squat
375lb Bench
675lb Deadlift
201lbs Bodyweight
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03-26-2020, 08:38 AM #108
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03-26-2020, 09:15 AM #109
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This, there are so many so called authority figures and experts in any industry that are so full of chit and really don't have any clue what they are talking about, or just regurgitate the same chit without every thinking for themselves. Honestly getting into lifting and doing my research on which people to follow for fitness advice really opened my eyes to this idea that even so called the most popular and so called most credible people can be full of chit. Not saying that we shouldn't listen to experts but do your own research instead of just blindly accepting or following but somebody says like a mindless drone. Research and look up the facts and think for yourself. Dr.Oz has a lot of credentials but many of us know a lot of the supplements and chit he pushes are unfounded in the scientific community and research.
Besides, general doctors or MDs or those working in the hospitals aren't exactly experts on disease and viruses. It would be guys who are more on the research front of things, like biochemists, microbiologists, epidemiologists. Even those guys don't have all the answers right now and even those guys will disagree on certain points. It's like going to a doctor when you should really see a physiotherapist.
I think I read an article that makes a great point. Doctors are extremely risk averse. If something even has a 1% risk they are going to give you some general blanket recommendation to protect their own ass that's often an overreaction. Brb I have a slight twinge in my back - "you should stop lifting weights". Brb I have high cholesterol - "eliminate junk and fatty food from diet". While they do work it's like smashing a single ant with a sledgehammer. On a small scale sure that might be okay. But if we are talking about shutting down the entire world for months this is something entirely different with a lot more unintended effects. Their entire field is based on risk aversion so they are always going to have that viewpoint, but the problem is you need to consider other viewpoints from other professions and experts and the issue is a multi-faceted one that isn't strictly medical.
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03-26-2020, 09:52 AM #110
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03-26-2020, 09:57 AM #111
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03-26-2020, 09:59 AM #112
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03-26-2020, 10:04 AM #113
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03-26-2020, 10:49 AM #114
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03-26-2020, 10:51 AM #115
https://www.dailywire.com/news/epide...-revises-model
You can't make this **** up.
"Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson has changed his tune, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000."
You *******s better start investing if you haven't already. Individual stocks and crypto not mutual fund bull****.
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03-26-2020, 10:54 AM #116
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03-26-2020, 11:15 AM #117
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03-26-2020, 11:57 AM #118
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nice graphic, kinda proves the point most people are saying. 0.03% of medical workers have died from the virus. Of the ones known to have caught it and tested positive 0.5% died. Sooo OP is right???
thats a 44 year age span. There are waaaay more people on the planet in that age group than 0-19 or 65+. So the largest population age group only makes up 1/5 of the people who died from it?
Even then I would like to see where you got the 20% number.Last edited by Contribution05; 03-26-2020 at 12:04 PM.
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03-26-2020, 12:04 PM #119
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03-26-2020, 12:05 PM #120
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