I don’t know about the rest of the country. But in NYC it’s actually the opposite. Spike in at home deaths compared to same period of previous years. None have been tested or counted as part of the NYC COVID fatalities. We’re talking 2.2k at home fatalities in 2 weeks vs 453 same period last year.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ny-as-covid-19
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04-08-2020, 10:44 AM #1081They said she's gone too far this time
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04-08-2020, 10:58 AM #1082
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You're saying it's inaccurate which means you must have an idea of what the accurate way is. So what is the accurate way? How would you classify a death as either C-19 or not C-19? Or do you not have an answer to the question?
In the case of your example I would, not being a doctor, classify it as a flu related death if the patient would have been alive but for the fact they the patient got sick with the flu and died because of that.747 Driver
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04-08-2020, 11:07 AM #1083
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04-08-2020, 11:11 AM #1084
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Theoretically based on estimates yes but we also don't attempt to battle the flu each year by destroying the economy.
I still hold the position that this thing is about as dangerous as the flu.
Think about how many people the flu kills and that's with vaccination and with herd immunity. A new virus entering the global sphere will have a bad year and then just kind of fold into the normal ebb and flow in following years.
I think we should have done some public initiatives to fight a new virus being added to the global goulash if you will such as canceling large entertainment events/sporting and even closing schools, and advocating distancing/hygiene as best you can but the shelter in place orders affecting non essential businesses was the wrong move in my opinion.*PUREBLOOD CREW*
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04-08-2020, 11:14 AM #1085
No, but it’s not far off. But that is only by August 4th so it doesn’t include rest of the year, it doesn’t include maybe earlier in this year before the virus arrived in America and obviously we don’t quarantine the entire country during flu season so we’ve experienced fewer deaths because of the social distancing.
It’s still not “just the flu bro” even if we get close to the death toll this model shows.Horny.
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04-08-2020, 11:17 AM #1086
I disagree, mainly because I live in CA and we are seeing how well SIP has worked over here. We have crappy people all over the place, but somehow managed to avoid huge spikes. It's all about the hospital system.
Trump has prepared us for future pandemics with this, and we will no longer rely on China. There is a chance this whole ordeal will help us in the long run.
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04-08-2020, 11:19 AM #1087
2017-2018 flu season claimed 61k lives. It isn’t the flu, but it isn’t Ebola either. The case for crashing the economy and destroying people’s livelihoods is becoming less convincing each day. We did the right thing at the start, but the time to get back to normal is approaching. If we could get antibody testing done large-scale, we could kore forward with more confidence.
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04-08-2020, 11:22 AM #1088
You're not comparing the same things. When the CDC takes the final covid-19 and runs it through their model that use to estimate flu deaths, it'll jump up substantially. This is just reported deaths and doesn't include the excess mortality and deaths at home, attributable deaths, etc... that they use to calculate the final toll. The flu deaths they report includes all of those estimates already.
Physics crew
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04-08-2020, 11:24 AM #1089
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Maybe, there are a lot of factors.
Amount of Chinese travel to NY vs LA during the weeks leading up to the spikes
Amount of high density public transit in LA vs NY
Weather
etc
I'm not saying you're wrong but I'm not saying what you've said is a definitive fact either.*PUREBLOOD CREW*
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04-08-2020, 11:27 AM #1090
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04-08-2020, 11:29 AM #1091
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04-08-2020, 11:31 AM #1092
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04-08-2020, 11:40 AM #1093
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04-08-2020, 11:41 AM #1094
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04-08-2020, 11:42 AM #1095
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04-08-2020, 11:46 AM #1096
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04-08-2020, 11:55 AM #1097
Holy sh*t. You’re joking, right??? People have been making this point the whole time.
Some of that uncertainty is what I as well as other non doom and gloomers have mentioned. Your idea of uncertainty is some crazy outbreak or a COVID strain gets stronger, etc.
On the other side there is the uncertainty of a possible breakthrough in a cure or the heat destroying the virus or the virus losing a lot of strength over time, etc.
Point is that I’ve made this argument before to you. That there is so much uncertainty. But you’re a fukking clown that suggested only you and Bill Gates knew the truth. We don’t know nearly enough about what’s to come. Just quit pretending you do. This is why you’re a pseudo-intellectual.Horny.
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04-08-2020, 12:03 PM #1098
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maybe we should trust the medical professionals in determining cause of death instead of trusting chaunce54? that sounds reasonable to me.
oh joshy, you're so predictable, it's comically naive. you are quite skilled at holding ignorant positions that run contrary to facts
“Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'”
― Isaac AsimovIt's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray
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04-08-2020, 12:05 PM #1099
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wincel dude, why not take a break until may 1. whether you're going to be right or wrong, debating it now serves no useful purpose and continuing to make fake accounts is just a really juvenile look. you're destroying any credibility you hope to have with each new account you create.
It's hard to win an argument with a smart person. It's damn near impossible to win an argument with a stupid person. - Bill Murray
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04-08-2020, 12:12 PM #1100
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Estimates put CV deaths at 500k w/o mitigation, flu deaths would be right there as well without mitigation. We still have tens of thousands of deaths in the US with vaccination and with herd immunity. Without those existing dampers flu deaths would be drastically higher than they are currently. It's not a stretch to think that the given the same environment that the flu and cv would kill a similar amount of people.
Today CV is more dangerous absolutely, my point was in following seasons it may end up killing even less people seasonally than the flu.*PUREBLOOD CREW*
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04-08-2020, 12:14 PM #1101
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04-08-2020, 12:35 PM #1102
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04-08-2020, 12:36 PM #1103
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04-08-2020, 12:36 PM #1104
That's on the low end of what I would expect, but I guess not too unreasonable. It's probably going to be 50,000 by 5/1, and I'd personally guess near 65,000 by June 1, but it's going to be slowing at that point, too, so I'd think 70-75,000 by Aug 4? There will likely be another mini-spike near the end of the year, so by the time the vaccine is ready next spring, I'd be surprised if we're not over 100k.
The key to ending all of the restrictions is going to be testing. There needs to be widespread antibody testing to determine how many people have actually been exposed so far (because it's way more than 400k, but how much - 3x, 5x, 10x?). There also needs to be an ability to control breakouts through quarantining and contact tracing, but to do that, you have to start with a very low number of infections in the public, and you have to have extensive on-demand testing to catch all cases very early (I mean, like go to any CVS and get tested for free and get an immediate result level of on-demand testing) and then also test everyone who that person came in contact with very quickly. Quarantine and contact tracing is what worked in SK, and it's what was tried here at first, but when they started actually testing for it, it quickly became apparent that there were millions of cases in the country already and not nearly the testing capability we needed to contain it. Hopefully, all this social distancing will reduce the number of community spread infections to a manageable number, but we still need to significantly ramp up the testing capabilities (I've seen stuff in the works, but the quarantine can't really be lifted until it's in mass production and rolled out).
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04-08-2020, 12:41 PM #1105
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04-08-2020, 12:59 PM #1106
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04-08-2020, 01:01 PM #1107
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04-08-2020, 02:52 PM #1108
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04-08-2020, 03:37 PM #1109
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04-08-2020, 03:40 PM #1110
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