☣️🦠☣️🦠 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Information Thread 🦠☣️🦠☣️

[Farley1324]

No, what we want to know is if we took the same individual, otherwise young and healthy, or group of individuals, does the COVID pose any statistically significant risk to ones health beyond a garden variety of flu virus.

You'll probably have to wait ~1 year to get the peer reviewed hindsight research paper if you want that degree of certainty, especially since that ~1/3 of the US adult population isn't where most of the attention is going right now

[Farley1324]

Texas LT Gov is an idiot

This is the definition of selfish, greed, negligence.

Basically the rich cronies in texas are losing money and want their slaves to continue to work to bring them in money. So they want to open up the economy despite the deadly risks

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/polit...nes/index.html

"Let's be smart about it and those of us who are 70+, we'll take care of ourselves. But don't sacrifice the country.""

Of course, as a rich, famous, or politician, he'll be guaranteed the best care no matter what.

[dondadas]

Texas Lt. Gov. Urges Old People To Sacrifice Themselves To Save Economy Amid Coronavirus

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/t...avirus-economy

The lieutenant governor asserted that grandparents have a “choice” to make in the face of “total collapse” in the economy.

“We all want to live. We all want to live with our grandchildren as long as we can,” he said. “But the point is our biggest gift we give to our country and our children and our grandchildren is the legacy of our country, and right now, that is at risk.”

legacy of a country who is willing to let the people who worked for it all their lives die because muh economy

[ANumber1]

"Let's be smart about it and those of us who are 70+, we'll take care of ourselves. But don't sacrifice the country.""

Of course, as a rich, famous, or politician, he'll be guaranteed the best care no matter what.

The country consists of stock market indexes and not American families, apparently.

Besides, there's no statewide lockdown in Texas. I was told all the rural folks are self-sufficient and don't need big city tax dollars. What's this old fart's problem?

[Johnez]

Texas Lt. Gov. Urges Old People To Sacrifice Themselves To Save Economy Amid Coronavirus

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/t...avirus-economy




praise our new lord an savior... the economy, may it let our politicians sell even more of our country to the CCP, can i get an amen?

How old is this fuk? When he catches this chit, he better be the first to rip off his ventilator and give it to some zoomer.

[dondadas]

How old is this fuk? When he catches this chit, he better be the first to rip off his ventilator and give it to some zoomer.

69 years old with the best health care you can get, paid for by the people who should sacrifice themselves, so he can sell off more of his country to the chinese or other foreigners

[MEDITATE]

looks like we have another touchdown..... buckle up boys

https://www.newsweek.com/what-hantav...odents-1493924

[MEDITATE]

Locking people up in jail with covid-19 patients is probably a pretty effective threat

hahaha, come to think about it, youre right

[R3L3NTL3SS]

looks like we have another touchdown..... buckle up boys

https://www.newsweek.com/what-hantav...odents-1493924

Rarely passed human to human. Stop the further fear mongering. This literally wouldn't have even made the news if not for COVID-19 one everyones radar...

[dondadas]

looks like we have another touchdown..... buckle up boys

https://www.newsweek.com/what-hantav...odents-1493924

The CDC states that hantaviruses in the U.S. cannot be passed from person to person, while rare instances of human-to-human transmission have been documented in Chile and Argentina in people who have had close contact with those sick with the Andes virus.

let's deal with our more pressing issue

[Witrebel]

I've been doom and gloom crew since early January. So hopefully my optimism carries some weight here.

Pretend for a moment that no one has ever said "70% of the population will get this infection" Also forget that the expectation is it takes 60-70% of a population to acquire complete immunity before the virus will burn out.

Lets just look at the DATA from italy. The Y axis is number of cases. This is restricted to these 4 cities. With shading per city.



What lockdowns are doing is attempting to reduce the number of transmissions. Transmissions take time to become symptomatic cases. This data is showing when people became symptomatic.

So then lets overlay the time lag from transmission (contagion event) to symptom onset.



Here are the italy lockdown dates: https://www.axios.com/italy-coronavi...897494dc6.html

March 4: Schools and universities are closed (3,089 cases).
March 8: Several northern provinces are placed under lockdown (7,375 cases).
March 9: The lockdown is extended nationwide (9,172 cases)

If you look at the second graph, Italy locked down well after the contagion event had peaked. This data is showing us that the virus was beginning to slow its spread in those cities, BEFORE social distancing was implemented. I do not have the answer why. It does not appear that the reason is that 70% of the entire city was infected. Maybe more like 50%, with half of those people being asymptomatic. This is still a problem for NYC, and it still means hospitals would be overrun for a period of time. But it's a way different picture than I've seen painted so far.

[theACEofSPADES]

So how many of y'all are still going to the gym? Mine is closed but apparently will open on the 1st. Not sure if I wanna go, but I'm losing my mind sitting at home

[bov188]

So how many of y'all are still going to the gym? Mine is closed but apparently will open on the 1st. Not sure if I wanna go, but I'm losing my mind sitting at home

Whereabouts in NY are you?

Most likely your gym will not be opening on the 1st. NYC is not expected to peak until mid to late April and I imagine that will effect the entire state of NY

[KT667]

who masslikes trump’s twitter posts? i saw that tweet about the cure being worse than the virus it had like 300k likes. has to be either the russians/chinese or trump himself.

[Kirra]

Yes. They are.

There are degrees of risk obviously, as we all know and as I have said. And, also as I said, in the post you JUST quoted, you might say <20 is not at risk (even though there are outliers like the 12 year old locally in ICU and a couple <20 who have died worldwide).

2/3 of American adults likely have an 'underlying medical condition' so, yeah, there is a degree of risk to a lot of people.

Time to post some sources or stop lying boyo

[AltarOfPlagues]

If you look at the second graph, Italy locked down well after the contagion event had peaked. This data is showing us that the virus was beginning to slow its spread in those cities, BEFORE social distancing was implemented. I do not have the answer why. It does not appear that the reason is that 70% of the entire city was infected. Maybe more like 50%, with half of those people being asymptomatic. This is still a problem for NYC, and it still means hospitals would be overrun for a period of time. But it's a way different picture than I've seen painted so far.

it isnt THAT contagious. i tried to tell you off top but you dont wanna listen. if you are fukkin laying in the same bed with the person every single night, breathin up all they air, the rate is like 85%.

no fukkin shiit 70% wasnt infected. those numbers were never remotely based in any reality. i said you would have to have naked orgies to get these rates.

the wuhan data was always legit and corroborated by lombardy.

the rate increases (case and death) could soley be attributed to population densities, sociocultural activities, comorbidities and population age.

this idea that the infection rate was only capped by the actual number of people was never grounded in anything empirical.

96 million cases in the US my ass

[keyboardworkout]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/corona...17-days-later/

Coronavirus found on Diamond Princess surfaces 17 days later

Coronavirus stays on surfaces far longer than first thought — with traces found in cabins on the stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship 17 days after they were abandoned, according to alarming new research.

The potentially deadly bug was previously understood to live two to three days on some surfaces — but the new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it lasts more than five times as long.

The coronavirus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted,” according to the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

However, the report stressed that the research “cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces” and whether the traces were active enough to get anyone sick.

The alarming discovery came in a study of the bug’s terrifying spread in cruise ships, with the CDC calling for further study of the vessels.

“During the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Diamond Princess was the setting of the largest outbreak outside mainland China,” the CDC report noted.

More than 700 of the ship’s 3,700 passengers and crew later tested positive for the coronavirus, the study says.

Along with its sister ship, the Grand Princess — also owned by Carnival Corporation — there were a total of 10 deaths, the report says.

Passengers returning from cruises have also been linked to cases “in at least 15 states,” with reports of “secondary community-acquired cases linked to returned passengers on cruises,” according to the study.

“Cruise ships are often settings for outbreaks of infectious diseases because of their closed environment, contact between travelers from many countries, and crew transfers between ships,” the report warned.

[Farley1324]

Time to post some sources or stop lying boyo

What do you want a source for?

I'm lying? What am I lying about and what are you willing to wager on it?

[Witrebel]

it isnt THAT contagious. i tried to tell you off top but you dont wanna listen. if you are fukkin laying in the same bed with the person every single night, breathin up all they air, the rate is like 85%.

no fukkin shiit 70% wasnt infected. those numbers were never remotely based in any reality. i said you would have to have naked orgies to get these rates.

the wuhan data was always legit and corroborated by lombardy.

the rate increases (case and death) could soley be attributed to population densities, sociocultural activities, comorbidities and population age.

this idea that the infection rate was only capped by the actual number of people was never grounded in anything empirical.

96 million cases in the US my ass

Here's to hopping my ass was wrong man. I can't find any granular data to fact check that this holds true after March 8th.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.09320.pdf Here is the original paper that this stems from.

If you graph the data from the whole of lombardia I don't know that it really holds up. The peak of cases per day occurs on March 21st. If we backdate the onset of symptoms 1 week you get the 14th. If you backdate the contagion event you get peak contagion events per day on March 7th. This is in the middle of the lockdown phase, so the rollup data would still somewhat support lockdown's being the reason cases are peaking. Without granular data to show that those cities had sustained reduction in cases from March 8th onward, I'm not ready to "call it".

Interestingly enough, it would appear the market is optimistic though.

[Farley1324]

Here's to hopping my ass was wrong man. I can't find any granular data to fact check that this holds true after March 8th.

https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.09320.pdf Here is the original paper that this stems from.

If you graph the data from the whole of lombardia I don't know that it really holds up. The peak of cases per day occurs on March 21st. If we backdate the onset of symptoms 1 week you get the 14th. If you backdate the contagion event you get peak contagion events per day on March 7th. This is in the middle of the lockdown phase, so the rollup data would still somewhat support lockdown's being the reason cases are peaking. Without granular data to show that those cities had sustained reduction in cases from March 8th onward, I'm not ready to "call it".

Interestingly enough, it would appear the market is optimistic though.

Why 7 days from peak contagion to onset of symptoms? That seems kind of long I thought it was 4-5 days?

[Kawhilights]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/corona...17-days-later/

Chit son I have to put away all of my diamond surfaces now.

[Farley1324]

Chit son I have to put away all of my diamond surfaces now.

" SARS-CoV-2 RNA was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated on the Diamond Princess but before disinfection procedures had been conducted (Takuya Yamagishi, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, personal communication, 2020). Although these data cannot be used to determine whether transmission occurred from contaminated surfaces, further study of fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 aboard cruise ships is warranted. "

[Witrebel]

Why 7 days from peak contagion to onset of symptoms? That seems kind of long I thought it was 4-5 days?

Rule of thumb from "my guy".

A simple 1-1-1 rule for backdating and forward-dating events

one week from contagion to testing: {hospitalization, confinement, release}
one week from hospitalization to {ICU, release}
one week from ICU to {death, release}

Always hoping for the latter.

https://twitter.com/oliverbeige/stat...19067605467136

My guess is that you figure a day or two from onset to account for delays in getting to a testing site and/or getting admitted. Onset of fever <> instant positive test result etc.

[Farley1324]

Okay so ~7 days from contraction to symptoms sufficient enough to push you for a test, which may be a couple days after onset of symptoms. That follows what we know as well as anything at this point

[2RDEYE]

So how many of y'all are still going to the gym? Mine is closed but apparently will open on the 1st. Not sure if I wanna go, but I'm losing my mind sitting at home

that is ridiculously weird that it opens so early in the midst of this disaster. think may would be the best option for opening up again

[chalup]

I've been doom and gloom crew since early January. So hopefully my optimism carries some weight here.

Pretend for a moment that no one has ever said "70% of the population will get this infection" Also forget that the expectation is it takes 60-70% of a population to acquire complete immunity before the virus will burn out.

Lets just look at the DATA from italy. The Y axis is number of cases. This is restricted to these 4 cities. With shading per city.



What lockdowns are doing is attempting to reduce the number of transmissions. Transmissions take time to become symptomatic cases. This data is showing when people became symptomatic.

So then lets overlay the time lag from transmission (contagion event) to symptom onset.



Here are the italy lockdown dates: https://www.axios.com/italy-coronavi...897494dc6.html




If you look at the second graph, Italy locked down well after the contagion event had peaked. This data is showing us that the virus was beginning to slow its spread in those cities, BEFORE social distancing was implemented. I do not have the answer why. It does not appear that the reason is that 70% of the entire city was infected. Maybe more like 50%, with half of those people being asymptomatic. This is still a problem for NYC, and it still means hospitals would be overrun for a period of time. But it's a way different picture than I've seen painted so far.

Thank you for those graphs. Obviously Washingston State has a issue from the outbreak at the retirement home and NYC is so densely packed they are getting hit hard as well. We should focus most resources there and by mid April 80% of the US should be able to go back to a semi normal life.

[AltarOfPlagues]

population densities in sq mi:

nyc: 26,403
ny state: 421

milan: 20,000
lombardy:1,100

deagu (sk ground zero): 7,300
SK total: 1,313

stop thinking in terms of countries and start thinking in terms of cities.

[Witrebel]

Okay so ~7 days from contraction to symptoms sufficient enough to push you for a test, which may be a couple days after onset of symptoms. That follows what we know as well as anything at this point

Correct. I will say that the datasets I have access to do not support the theory above.



Blue line is cases per day rolled up for all of lombardia.

Red line is if you subtract a week to estimate time of contraction.

Notice how on the blue line, there is a significant valley right around March 8th? The paper was only using data up to March 8th.

We need good data per city/outbreak cluster that shows that the new cases in lombardia overall are due to the virus reaching new populations, and not further infections in those same subsets that are in the report.

Basically once again, without good granular data we are in the dark. I would say this theory has at least a 50/50 shot at being correct. And the fact that the market is up nearly 10% today makes me think I'm not the only one looking at this. Does anyone have another good reason to markets are so happy? Other than the money printer goes Brrrrrr?

[AltarOfPlagues]

Basically once again, without good granular data we are in the dark. I would say this theory has at least a 50/50 shot at being correct. And the fact that the market is up nearly 10% today makes me think I'm not the only one looking at this. Does anyone have another good reason to markets are so happy? Other than the money printer goes Brrrrrr?

we have more than enough data. distributions are fat tailed, data quantity doesnt matter. make small adjustments and the graphs go apeshiit. the data doesnt matter.

this why the UK powers that be are brainlets. they were waiting on better and better data. you're lookin at a hurricane off brazil and calculating the destruction in florida.

[Witrebel]

we have more than enough data. distributions are fat tailed, data quantity doesnt matter. make small adjustments and the graphs go apeshiit. the data doesnt matter.

this why the UK powers that be are brainlets. they were waiting on better and better data. you're lookin at a hurricane off brazil and calculating the destruction in florida.

Okay but that's not just a fat tail, that's a blowout?

The paper looks at data up to March 8th, and essentially concludes that the lockdown was late to have an effect, and the reduction in cases and deaths was due to natural causes, not the lockdown.

If that was the case, you would have expected the "do nothing" case count for lombardia to have topped out around 4,189 cases. Those graphs I posted above show this, as they show the new cases per day virtually flattened out and done by March 8th.

If we look at lombardia after March 8th, we see that an additional 24,000 or so cases have since been logged. Those cases aren't a fat tail, they are a 5x?

Possible reasons:

1) Increased testing.
2) Virus spreading to other populations outside of the 3 clusters in the paper but within the bounds of lombardia.

Not saying the theory is wrong, but we do need data from those exact same clusters in the report going past march 8th. If we take that data, and then overlay the number of tests performed, we can validate that the contagion events were decreasing BEFORE the lockdown came. Untill we have that data, it's still just a theory.

Given that multiple economies just got blown the fuk out, I think it's safe to say we need data before we conclude that all of those governments got it wrong, not to mention the epidemiology experts advising them.