Corona

[7Seconds]

Even a Tiger at the Bronx zoo has it now. We shall see what it's made of, tough guy or just a big pussy

Who the hell coughed on a tiger?

[mtpockets]

Who the hell coughed on a tiger?

Maybe ate a bat

[Mark1T]

Maybe ate a bat

I'm sure we're getting close to what happened.

But...

[Fishman15]

I'm sure we're getting close to what happened.

But...

Are you saying the "bats" were raised in a lab???

[Farley1324]

Coronavirus: Pastor who decried 'hysteria' dies after attending Mardi Gras'



https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-ca...at_campaign=64


At least there is a little bit of karma in this whole thing

[acrawlingchaos]

Are you sure he didn't say that in another source because he never said it in the one you posted. What was actually said was:



We'd also have to assume the reported numbers of deaths is accurate and there are many reports out of China that the number is drastically higher. More time is needed to get a more accurate picture either way.

It clearly shows that death rates are comparable to the flu, and not the panic inducing nonsense being pandered around. As you said, more time is needed to gather data.

Cliffs: GL with your conspiracy theory that this is all not happening. Also, read your own sources again for info like R0 of 2.2

No one said it isn't happening. If people disagree with you, just misrepresent what they say.

r0 of previous flu epidemics was about 1.9. The difference is significant sure, but not by the margins you're insisting.

[Farley1324]

It clearly shows that death rates are comparable to the flu, and not the panic inducing nonsense being pandered around. As you said, more time is needed ti gather data.



No one said it isn't happening. If people disagree with you, just misrepresent what they say.

r0 of previous flu epidemics was about 1.9. The difference is significant sure, but not by the margins you're insisting.

Please link what clearly shows the CFR of covid-19 is 0.1% or less

[acrawlingchaos]

Please link what clearly shows the CFR of covid-19 is 0.1% or less

You can't help but misrepresent what I said. Because I didn't make that claim. I said comparable to the flu.



I've already linked the study. I even linked what I was referring to.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%"


Disclaimer.... not all the data is. We all know that.

[Farley1324]

You can't help but misrepresent what I said. Because I didn't make that claim. I said comparable to the flu.



I've already linked the study. I even linked what I was referring to.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%"


Disclaimer.... not all the data is. We all know that.

Okay. Let's try to use some actual numbers in our discussion.

The paper napkin math suggestion is that, perhaps, maybe, the CFR might be closer to 0.1% than it is to 10%.

Nobody will disagree with that. Even 4% would be closer to 0.1 than to 10.

So that snippet of a quote is pretty well meaningless, considering. Intentionally vague so as not to be wrong, it seems?

[Mark1T]

Are you saying the "bats" were raised in a lab???

You've never heard of Test-Tube Bats? Where have you been?

The questions is: Out of all the animals in the zoo, what was the clue that got the tiger tested?

[acrawlingchaos]

Okay. Let's try to use some actual numbers in our discussion.

The paper napkin math suggestion is that, perhaps, maybe, the CFR might be closer to 0.1% than it is to 10%.

Nobody will disagree with that. Even 4% would be closer to 0.1 than to 10.

So that snippet of a quote is pretty well meaningless, considering. Intentionally vague so as not to be wrong, it seems?

Meaningless? The medical professional that JTBNY suggested was credible literally said Covid19 death rates are comparable to the flu, and now because that information doesn't align with what you thought was accurate the numbers are meaningless? OK

So why don't you show me some numbers regarding the CFR that show significant levels of death over the flu instead of telling me the credible reference I produce isn't good enough. I will certainly read it.

[Farley1324]

That was literally not said, which is why you literally selectively quoted half of a sentence and cut off the rest

What was linked suggests that covid-19 CFR may be closer to 0.1 than to 9-10 or 36

If you're going to quote something, please don't cut it off mid sentence because the whole sentence doesn't support what you are trying to push

So why don't you show me some numbers regarding the CFR that show significant levels of death over the flu

When did the flu kill over 1,300 Americans in one day?



Here is the WHOLE SENTENCE

"This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively"


Yes, covid-19 may be more akin to 0.1% than 10% or 36%. Nobody here, especially me, is arguing this is anywhere near 36% or even 10% CFR

[acrawlingchaos]

If you're going to quote something, please don't cut it off mid sentence because the whole sentence doesn't support what you are trying to push

I highlighted the portion you specifically inquired about..... in this thread

Of a paragraph that was posted in full and being discussed by you, jtbny and I.... in this thread

Of an article that was posted for reference.... in this thread

Ill just assume you're being obtuse, because instead of just posting a source so we can discuss the numbers, you're full on intent on getting you're gotcha moment. Do you have a source for the high death tolls you are expecting or not?

When did the flu kill over 1,300 Americans in one day?

Well, there was an estimated 64000 flu deaths last flu season with the vast majority of those occurring in the 3 month flu season. So chances are ya, quite a few and recently.









FWIW, part of my shortness is the fact that I am having constant "access denied" errors, so my responses become shorter with each attempt to post the same thing.

[OldFartTom]

We have no idea at this point the mortality rate for Covid because until we can antibody test (the did you have it in past) large chunks of populations we don't know the proportion of asymptomatic cases, it might be quite low. I suspect from the proportion of frontline medical and healthcare teams ill, that's not the case. Also Northern Italy didn't look like an a typical bflu season.

However even if the mortality rate was closer to seasonal flu (I concede that can't yet be disproven) it's still incomparable to seasonal flu due to..
1) way way more contagious (for both general population and medical teams).
2) harder to treat
3) At this point, no vaccination
4) huge list unknowns, even the transmission mechanism is speculative

A comparison of Covid to seasonal flu just doesn't make sense, they're too dissimilar for that to be helpful

[OldFartTom]

Forget arguing over the math for a moment.

Simple question... Would you say that the events in either Northern Italy or Spain are comparable with a typical flu season?

[mtpockets]

Forget arguing over the math for a moment.

Simple question... Would you say that the events in either Northern Italy or Spain are comparable with a typical flu season?

Excellent insertion of common sense.

[Farley1324]

I highlighted the portion you specifically inquired about..... in this thread

Of a paragraph that was posted in full and being discussed by you, jtbny and I.... in this thread

Of an article that was posted for reference.... in this thread

Ill just assume you're being obtuse, because instead of just posting a source so we can discuss the numbers, you're full on intent on getting you're gotcha moment. Do you have a source for the high death tolls you are expecting or not?

Well, there was an estimated 64000 flu deaths last flu season with the vast majority of those occurring in the 3 month flu season. So chances are ya, quite a few and recently.

FWIW, part of my shortness is the fact that I am having constant "access denied" errors, so my responses become shorter with each attempt to post the same thing.

Don't delete half of the sentence when doing so makes the message much different. The only way you could even reasonably make the argument you did was because you ignored half of the damn sentence.

The answer to when did the seasonal flu kill 1,300 Americans in one day is "probably never". Even if you said the only flu deaths for the whole year happened over a 3 month span, 1,300 a day as a rate would still be 117,000 annually...double the HIGH end of the estimates (which likely over-estimate). Try again




The access denied thing is maddening

[Plateauplower]

Lets assume that 70% of the US population becomes infected with SARS-CoV-2 the virus that causes COVID-19 (disease) by the end of summer per the CDC model that was previously created.
336,000,000 US population X.7 = 235,200,000.

At a .1 mortality rate that would be 23,520,000 deaths....I don't think that will happen, I think we will be well under that.
At a .01 mortality rate there could be 2,352,000 deaths using these numbers, still seams really high to me....

There will be more deaths than a typical flu season (in total mortality), but I think the mortality rate will be much lower than the flu. We won't know until we can do antibody testing and get an idea of the real number of cases.

[x-trainer ben]

Maybe I am taking it wrong or heard it wrong but at the 3:36 mark the commentator made a remark about how "we" have the luxury of being able to work from home while developing nations don't? We don't all have that luxury, sure I could probably do half my work from home but the other half is hands on and there is no way my crew could run the equipment from home.

A Governor from Arkansas made that point yesterday on Meet The Press, that many jobs require interactions so it isn't feasible everywhere.

[Farley1324]

Lets assume that 70% of the US population becomes infected with SARS-CoV-2 the virus that causes COVID-19 (disease) by the end of summer per the CDC model that was previously created.
336,000,000 US population X.7 = 235,200,000.

At a .1 mortality rate that would be 23,520,000 deaths....I don't think that will happen, I think we will be well under that.
At a .01 mortality rate there could be 2,352,000 deaths using these numbers, still seams really high to me....

There will be more deaths than a typical flu season (in total mortality), but I think the mortality rate will be much lower than the flu. We won't know until we can do antibody testing and get an idea of the real number of cases.

This revised IHME model (just came out) projects a total of about 81,000 by the end of May, if we continue the extreme social distancing. That would be 80k (and not an inflated estimate like the flu) in 3 months

And there is no way the mortality rate will be much lower than the flu.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[x-trainer ben]

Forget arguing over the math for a moment.

Simple question... Would you say that the events in either Northern Italy or Spain are comparable with a typical flu season?

Fkkkkkk NOOOOOOOOO!

[Farley1324]

Forget arguing over the math for a moment.

Simple question... Would you say that the events in either Northern Italy or Spain are comparable with a typical flu season?

Good perspective.

Too much reality in this post for some people to accept, I'm afraid

I'm also afraid it's safe to add NYC to that list now I think, though they are only going to get worse.

[acrawlingchaos]

Forget arguing over the math for a moment.

Simple question... Would you say that the events in either Northern Italy or Spain are comparable with a typical flu season?

Italy has a history of being hit hard by the flu. Much harder than other European countries. During the flu season studied, there was 68000 deaths attributed to the flu, equal to what is experienced in the entirety of the U.S.

So yea.... the 68000 flu deaths in Italy in the study observed is pretty comparable to the 15000 covid deaths in Italy. Did you bother to look at the history of Italy or just make assumptions?

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...328-5/fulltext

Don't delete half of the sentence when doing so makes the message much different. The only way you could even reasonably make the argument you did was because you ignored half of the damn sentence.

We were already discussing the article, and the entire paragraph was already posted in this thread. The link was right there so you could view the entire f*cking study bro. I quoted that 1 line because you were pretending it wasn't there and requested clarification... even after you quoted the paragraph.

The answer to when did the seasonal flu kill 1,300 Americans in one day is "probably never". Even if you said the only flu deaths for the whole year happened over a 3 month span, 1,300 a day as a rate would still be 117,000 annually...double the HIGH end of the estimates (which likely over-estimate). Try again

The 2017/18 season had 92000 deaths. Seems there would be one or two days with 1000 deaths. I saw the "projections" for 81000 covid deaths and that seem pretty f*cking comparable to 92000 "estimated" flu deaths. It certainly isn't the 200,000-2+million death tools fear mongerers are spreading.

[Farley1324]

Italy has a history of being hit hard by the flu. Much harder than other European countries. During the flu season studied, there was 68000 deaths attributed to the flu, equal to what is experienced in the entiriety of the U.S.

So yea.... the 68000 flu deaths in the study observed is pretty comparable to the 15000 covid deaths in Italy

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...328-5/fulltext


We were already discussing the article, and the entire paragraph was already posted in this thread. The link was right there so you could view the entire f*cking study bro. I quoted that 1 line because you were pretending it wasn't there.

The 2017/18 season had 92000 deaths. Is that not enough deaths for you to consider influenza concerning?


I saw the "projections" for 81000 covid deaths and that seem pretty f*cking comparable to 94000 "estimated" flu deaths.

You were pretending only half of the sentence was there.

Cutting a sentence in half, choosing to delete the half that completes the thought and does not fit your agenda, is dishonest and misleading.

Nobody is denying that covid-19's CFR is expected to be closer to 0.1 than to 10, but that article is not predicting the CFR to actually be about 0.1

If 80k covid deaths in 3 months, and 1,000+ a day for 3 days straight (so far) even with this extreme distancing with school and sports cancellations, doesn't demonstrate anything to you...there's simply no getting through to you

[Plateauplower]

This revised IHME model (just came out) projects a total of about 81,000 by the end of May, if we continue the extreme social distancing. That would be 80k (and not an inflated estimate like the flu) in 3 months

And there is no way the mortality rate will be much lower than the flu.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

That is a projection for deaths, but does not attempt to determine total cases/infections including asymptomatic and mild cases which is necessary to determine mortality rate. There are a lot of deaths that are still not being counted BTW. A coworker of my wife just lost a parent to "Pneumonia" there was no COVID test administered...Test were conducted to confirm negative for a variety of other causes.. Pneumonia can be a generic "catch all" for upper respiratory disease mortality.

[Farley1324]

That is a projection for deaths, but does not attempt to determine total cases/infections including asymptomatic and mild cases which is necessary to determine mortality rate. There are a lot of deaths that are still not being counted BTW. A coworker of my wife just lost a parent to "Pneumonia" there was no COVID test administered...Test were conducted to confirm negative for a variety of other causes.. Pneumonia can be a generic "catch all" for upper respiratory disease mortality.

Yeah you don't get 1,300 in a day or 80k in three months during a worldwide lockdown with a mortality rate of the seasonal flu. And I agree there are uncounted deaths, some of these tests take so long to come back people die before they get test results for example. Some aren't tested. So we're comparing tested and confirmed covid cases (in a nation with a yuge lack of testing capacity) (in like 2-3 weeks total) to inflated year long estimated flu numbers.

We really need to stop trying to compare to flu in any way.

[acrawlingchaos]

You were pretending only half of the sentence was there.

Cutting a sentence in half, choosing to delete the half that completes the thought and does not fit your agenda, is dishonest and misleading.

The entire study was posted, the entire was paragraph was quoted. Obtuse as f*ck and dishonest as f*ck.

Nobody is denying that covid-19's CFR is expected to be closer to 0.1 than to 10, but that article is not predicting the CFR to actually be about 0.1

I said the study pointed out that they believed it was comparable to a bad flu system. The clinical consequences would be fairly close.

If 80k covid deaths in 3 months, and 1,000+ a day for 3 days straight (so far) even with this extreme distancing with school and sports cancellations, doesn't demonstrate anything to you...there's simply no getting through to you

So the 92000 influenza deaths meant nothing to you? And you really think the quasi half assed quarantine is the least bit effective? I take this very seriously, I just think this is over hyped. That's very clear with people shouting out 3% deathrates and deathtolls in the millions. Pure irresponsibility.

[OldFartTom]

Italy has a history of being hit hard by the flu. Much harder than other European countries. During the flu season studied, there was 68000 deaths attributed to the flu, equal to what is experienced in the entirety of the U.S.

So yea.... the 68000 flu deaths in Italy in the study observed is pretty comparable to the 15000 covid deaths in Italy. Did you bother to look at the history of Italy or just make assumptions?

I did look at some stats, interestingly flu is very variable. In UK, on average 8,000 people per year die from flu... However the last 2 years have been atypical with around 16,000 last year and 15,000 the year before. The last 2 years anomalies were attributed to, and I **** you not, new strains originating from China H7N9, H5N1, H5N6 (see https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...al-flu-reports see 2018-2019 annual flu report)

So how you look flu mortality depends on if you compare it with 2018-2019 season or perhaps the 10year average. The math will greatly differ.

For the record.. 68,000 flu deaths in Italy is the total during 2013 -- 2017 not a single flu season (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...28-5/fulltext) and is notable for being so unusually high (i.e abnormal) it warranted study.

[acrawlingchaos]

I did look at some stats, interestingly flu is very variable. In UK, on average 8,000 people per year die from flu... However the last 2 years have been atypical with around 16,000 last year and 15,000 the year before. The last 2 years anomalies were attributed to, and I **** you not, new strains originating from China H7N9, H5N1, H5N6 (see https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...al-flu-reports see 2018-2019 annual flu report)

So how you look flu mortality depends on if you compare it with 2018-2019 season or perhaps the 10year average. The math will greatly differ.

For the record.. 68,000 flu deaths in Italy is the total during 2013 -- 2017 (https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S...28-5/fulltext) and not their average flu season, and is notable for being so unusually high (i.e abnormal) it warranted study.

Thank you for the correction, that actually brings the numbers far closer together.

To be clear, I take covid seriously and just feel the U.S. has overreacted and will end up causing more harm than good by shutting the nation down.

[Plateauplower]

Yeah you don't get 1,300 in a day or 80k in three months during a worldwide lockdown with a mortality rate of the seasonal flu. And I agree there are uncounted deaths, some of these tests take so long to come back people die before they get test results for example. Some aren't tested. So we're comparing tested and confirmed covid cases (in a nation with a yuge lack of testing capacity) (in like 2-3 weeks total) to inflated year long estimated flu numbers.

We really need to stop trying to compare to flu in any way.

You can get those numbers with a very low mortality rate, it all depends on the actual caseload. This virus seems to be much more communicable than typical influenza virus is, which would make sense considering the complete lack of immunity, long incubation period, and number of mild/asymptomatic cases resulting in increased spread. Many in the medical field had observed increased mortality rates as far back as early January from "pneumonia" and causes consistent with this disease before it was "a thing" here officially. Pretty sure I had it in mid January and experienced dry cough (uncontrollable coughing fits, but primarily at night), shortness of breath, not sure about a fever, I never checked. I did take a few baths when I was sick which is usually because I'm chilled and achy from a fever...