Long Term Investing Thread

[EpicenterRex]

I'm long on ARK anything. ARKK/ARKF/ARKW/ARKG

[aberry33]

Yeah it’s a tough call. Right now my philosophy is around finding good companies that I believe in and that operate within an industry I understand. That + dividends and I think you’re golden. When you think about it, being able to buy into companies and get a slice of their profits is actually a really remarkable thing

Side note, watching the markets on a daily basis is exhausting. The amount of noise you need to cut through is legit ridiculous, there are constant conflicting reports about this and that and blablabla. Its far less stressful to follow value investing techniques while ignoring the daily up-and-down stock price movements

Agreed on the exhausting part. I mean it's interesting, but after doing it for a good amount of time it can get discouraging because the amount of contradictory reports/articles on a daily basis is crazy. Many times they come from the same exact sites. One day we're all gonna make it, the next day the world is one fire. Repeat daily.

Just poking my head in real quick haven't even had a chance yet to look into a lot of the suggestions yet but thanks again for sharing. Like some of you, I also add amounts to my account each paycheck. Right now I'm using M1 Finance, no fees on basic buying or selling it's pretty nice.

Has anyone ever signed up for Ycharts and downloaded their Y-Rating Report and One Page Reports on the right hand side of the page? You get 5 free downloads and I found the info within them to be helpful for some basic data all in one spot.

[wave_length]

Agreed on the exhausting part. I mean it's interesting, but after doing it for a good amount of time it can get discouraging because the amount of contradictory reports/articles on a daily basis is crazy. Many times they come from the same exact sites. One day we're all gonna make it, the next day the world is one fire. Repeat daily.

Just poking my head in real quick haven't even had a chance yet to look into a lot of the suggestions yet but thanks again for sharing. Like some of you, I also add amounts to my account each paycheck. Right now I'm using M1 Finance, no fees on basic buying or selling it's pretty nice.

Has anyone ever signed up for Ycharts and downloaded their Y-Rating Report and One Page Reports on the right hand side of the page? You get 5 free downloads and I found the info within them to be helpful for some basic data all in one spot.

It‘s exhausting and contradictory, because it‘s useless. There are two facts of investing that should shape your strategy:

Active investing (market timing and/or stock picking) must perform worse than passive investing on average, simply because of higher cost. This is Sharpe‘s law, based on logic alone.

Of course there will always be temporary active outperformers. To consistently outperform the market, outperformers however would have to be identifiable by their past performance. Numerous studies have shown that this is not the case. Some studies even suggest that past outperformers are less likely to outperform in the future.

[tyn89]

$V
$MSFT
$WM
$UNH
$AAPL
$LMT
$RTX

$VNQ
$FSLY, in since $42, going to keep on DCA FSLY for a while.


And always a small portion of -
$BND


401/Roth IRA, adjusting every year to match risk personal tolerance level -

Total USA market - 80%
Total International market - 15%
Total bond - 5%

[SouthDakotaBrah]

Agreed on the exhausting part. I mean it's interesting, but after doing it for a good amount of time it can get discouraging because the amount of contradictory reports/articles on a daily basis is crazy. Many times they come from the same exact sites. One day we're all gonna make it, the next day the world is one fire. Repeat daily.

Just poking my head in real quick haven't even had a chance yet to look into a lot of the suggestions yet but thanks again for sharing. Like some of you, I also add amounts to my account each paycheck. Right now I'm using M1 Finance, no fees on basic buying or selling it's pretty nice.

Has anyone ever signed up for Ycharts and downloaded their Y-Rating Report and One Page Reports on the right hand side of the page? You get 5 free downloads and I found the info within them to be helpful for some basic data all in one spot.

I like to use Morningstar and CFRA reports for a bunch of information all in one PDF. Can use Ctrl+F to search keywords and Alt+Tab to instantly fill an Excel workbook out with whatever metrics you're looking for

[guest89]

I'm long on ARK anything. ARKK/ARKF/ARKW/ARKG

Blows my mind more people aren't on the ARK train. In the short term it has performed extremely well. And its the type of investment that's geared for the long haul/20+ years into the future.

[Hoop_Dreams]

Blows my mind more people aren't on the ARK train. In the short term it has performed extremely well. And its the type of investment that's geared for the long haul/20+ years into the future.

Why not just get shares of TSLA, SQ, and/or NVTA? Seems to be overlap with those 3 in all of those funds and you don't have to pay the high expense ratio (.75)

[guest89]

Why not just get shares of TSLA, SQ, and/or NVTA? Seems to be overlap with those 3 in all of those funds and you don't have to pay the high expense ratio (.75)

For short term trades I buy individual stocks. During all the volatility did quite well buying and selling. But as for a long term hold I really like Cathie Woods investment style. I consider it a low fee for a much greater rate of exposure and a team of experts analyzing and picking the companies. I've gotten fairly busy now and I don't have as much time as I'd like to analyze/research anymore. Have more peace of mind with a ETF I have faith in.

[Hoop_Dreams]

For short term trades I buy individual stocks. During all the volatility did quite well buying and selling. But as for a long term hold I really like Cathie Woods investment style. I consider it a low fee for a much greater rate of exposure and a team of experts analyzing and picking the companies. I've gotten fairly busy now and I don't have as much time as I'd like to analyze/research anymore. Have more peace of mind with a ETF I have faith in.

.75 expense ratio over 30 years is 6 figures in fees. I understand where you're coming from, but that's a big price to pay.

[aberry33]

This shows how much of a novice I am but it's all about learning. If anyone is bored as hell could you explain what happened with AMP in Q1 2020? Their net income and therefore EPS shot up without really any change in revenue. I tried googling if it was acquisition related but found nothing. I did find a couple of potentially interesting footnotes in the earnings call. I don't understand it but a small part of me keeps wondering if it's one of those fancy accounting tactics that can somehow spin a negative into a positive:

-First quarter adjusted operating earnings per diluted share was $5.41, up 46 percent reflecting strong business performance in a challenging environment and a tax benefit from a projected net operating loss.

That last sentence is what sounded odd. The link below is to the full transcript and the first two bullet points on the left maybe give some insight?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...r-2020-Results

I'm going to try to paste the quarterly data from my spreadsheet but if it comes out a mess, revenue basically stays the same as previous quarters but then net income all of sudden shoots up from an average of around 500 mil to 2 billion.

Net Income
12/30/2017 3/30/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/30/2018 3/30/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/30/2019 3/30/2020
AMP 177m 594m 462m 503m 539m 395m 492m 543m 463m 2.036B

EPS Last 10 Quarters (Diluted)
12/30/2017 3/30/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/30/2018 3/30/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/30/2019 3/30/2020
AMP 1.18 3.91 3.1 3.43 3.76 2.82 3.57 4.04 3.53 15.88

Revenue
12/30/2017 3/30/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/30/2018 3/30/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/30/2019 3/30/2020
AMP 3.194B 3.184B 3.216B 3.316B 3.208B 3.153B 3.282B 3.351B 3.104B 3.026B

[aberry33]

Well dammit those numbers came out as messy as I thought they would. They're the last 10 quarters of each of those metrics.

Have a good 4th everyone.

[JustAGuy94]

Dis
V
WM
RTX
BA
MMM
Brk/b

+

Looking to add tech once it's not at an all time high

[Gizzyhardcore]

Long on Tesla since mid 2018 getting in at an average of $230, feels good mang right now

Also been dollar cost averaging these ETFs since 2016 at $250 a month each
US 500
US Mid Cap
US small cap
Euro
Emerging Markets
Asia Pacific

+ a lot of other stuff on and off, but generally I'm long

[RobParks2M]

This shows how much of a novice I am but it's all about learning. If anyone is bored as hell could you explain what happened with AMP in Q1 2020? Their net income and therefore EPS shot up without really any change in revenue. I tried googling if it was acquisition related but found nothing. I did find a couple of potentially interesting footnotes in the earnings call. I don't understand it but a small part of me keeps wondering if it's one of those fancy accounting tactics that can somehow spin a negative into a positive:

-First quarter adjusted operating earnings per diluted share was $5.41, up 46 percent reflecting strong business performance in a challenging environment and a tax benefit from a projected net operating loss.

That last sentence is what sounded odd. The link below is to the full transcript and the first two bullet points on the left maybe give some insight?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...r-2020-Results

I'm going to try to paste the quarterly data from my spreadsheet but if it comes out a mess, revenue basically stays the same as previous quarters but then net income all of sudden shoots up from an average of around 500 mil to 2 billion.

Based on your link it appears that they had a tail hedge kinda similar to Ackman and they made a LOOOOT of money on it. Also sounds like due to high volume they made more from their credit spreads too.

From your source:

"In the quarter, the sizable difference between the company’s GAAP and adjusted operating results was driven by the severity of the market dislocation in March, primarily related to widening in our credit spread and the valuation of derivatives used to hedge the company’s variable annuity living benefit guarantees(3). Management believes adjusted operating results best reflect underlying performance"

[EpicenterRex]

.75 expense ratio over 30 years is 6 figures in fees. I understand where you're coming from, but that's a big price to pay.

Cathie Wood is a genius and rebalances often. It’s an actual active managed. She changes the % in holdings monthly... so what is 10% Tesla today might be 5% next month and 9% in SQ

Regardless, it’s given me a 45% return over 6 months. I’ll gladly give .75 for a 45% return

[aberry33]

Based on your link it appears that they had a tail hedge kinda similar to Ackman and they made a LOOOOT of money on it. Also sounds like due to high volume they made more from their credit spreads too.

From your source:

"In the quarter, the sizable difference between the company’s GAAP and adjusted operating results was driven by the severity of the market dislocation in March, primarily related to widening in our credit spread and the valuation of derivatives used to hedge the company’s variable annuity living benefit guarantees(3). Management believes adjusted operating results best reflect underlying performance"

Thanks appreciate the feedback.

[DoragonKingu]

You wanna be rich bet your house on AMD!

[ontclone]

Yeah it’s a tough call. Right now my philosophy is around finding good companies that I believe in and that operate within an industry I understand. That + dividends and I think you’re golden. When you think about it, being able to buy into companies and get a slice of their profits is actually a really remarkable thing

Side note, watching the markets on a daily basis is exhausting. The amount of noise you need to cut through is legit ridiculous, there are constant conflicting reports about this and that and blablabla. Its far less stressful to follow value investing techniques while ignoring the daily up-and-down stock price movements

this is why is so important to do your own research on a company and come to YOUR on conclusion. If you can do that and be right about the company you literally dont have to listen to anything. If your conclusion was wrong only due to business factors not the market than you can sell

[EpicenterRex]

You wanna be rich bet your house on AMD!

I think Chegg is a much better play for a medium risk/high reward play.

[tunafish01]

I think Chegg is a much better play for a medium risk/high reward play.

You think? May all just be online books now, germ free etc.

[EpicenterRex]

You think? May all just be online books now, germ free etc.

Chegg has huge potential IMO. I put 500 into them and will likely do another 500 soon.... College is only going to go to more online in the future (not even from the virus, it's just headed that way) and what started as book rentals, have already progressed to a 14.99 online membership that will give answers to nearly most/all test questions. They have memberships that are for tutorials on how they got the answer, and i know they confirmed already soon they're going to have live tutoring. I think it has huge potential. up 100% in 3 months, 16% last 1 month, 7% last week, I think this will continue to grow. Being the #1 place for college kids to go to can be worth a lot of money, especially if tutoring takes off.

[ontclone]

This shows how much of a novice I am but it's all about learning. If anyone is bored as hell could you explain what happened with AMP in Q1 2020? Their net income and therefore EPS shot up without really any change in revenue. I tried googling if it was acquisition related but found nothing. I did find a couple of potentially interesting footnotes in the earnings call. I don't understand it but a small part of me keeps wondering if it's one of those fancy accounting tactics that can somehow spin a negative into a positive:

-First quarter adjusted operating earnings per diluted share was $5.41, up 46 percent reflecting strong business performance in a challenging environment and a tax benefit from a projected net operating loss.

That last sentence is what sounded odd. The link below is to the full transcript and the first two bullet points on the left maybe give some insight?

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...r-2020-Results

I'm going to try to paste the quarterly data from my spreadsheet but if it comes out a mess, revenue basically stays the same as previous quarters but then net income all of sudden shoots up from an average of around 500 mil to 2 billion.

Net Income
12/30/2017 3/30/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/30/2018 3/30/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/30/2019 3/30/2020
AMP 177m 594m 462m 503m 539m 395m 492m 543m 463m 2.036B

EPS Last 10 Quarters (Diluted)
12/30/2017 3/30/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/30/2018 3/30/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/30/2019 3/30/2020
AMP 1.18 3.91 3.1 3.43 3.76 2.82 3.57 4.04 3.53 15.88

Revenue
12/30/2017 3/30/2018 6/30/2018 9/30/2018 12/30/2018 3/30/2019 6/30/2019 9/30/2019 12/30/2019 3/30/2020
AMP 3.194B 3.184B 3.216B 3.316B 3.208B 3.153B 3.282B 3.351B 3.104B 3.026B

if you cant understand a company why buy it? just move on to something simpler that you understand, so many companies out there. Why jump over 6 foot bars when you can jump over 2?

[EpicenterRex]

if you cant understand a company why buy it? just move on to something simpler that you understand, so many companies out there. Why jump over 6 foot bars when you can jump over 2?

This. Tesla isn’t even profitable yet, and they’re the #1 worth automaker and now more than coke as a business.... that’s wild what they’re worth more than coke and have yet to turn a profit... I don’t understand it, but I seem to put money in monthly into the company and keep making money monthly from the company. That’s all I really care about lol

[RobParks2M]

This. Tesla isn’t even profitable yet, and they’re the #1 worth automaker and now more than coke as a business.... that’s wild what they’re worth more than coke and have yet to turn a profit... I don’t understand it, but I seem to put money in monthly into the company and keep making money monthly from the company. That’s all I really care about lol

lmao. I've got some tulips to sell you as well

Of course I am not serious but it somewhat floors me that so many people risk a decent chunk of their retirement on a company with no profits and a man who is a brilliant mad man.

[EpicenterRex]

lmao. I've got some tulips to sell you as well

Of course I am not serious but it somewhat floors me that so many people risk a decent chunk of their retirement on a company with no profits and a man who is a brilliant mad man.

I don’t risk a large amount in my IRA. 70% is in a target retirement date fund. It’s 2050 and ran by Charles Schwab and I’m very impressed by the performance for the .07 expense. I allow myself 30% to buy whatever I want. I put 15% on Tesla and over 5 months, it’s alone risen my IRA by a rather decent amount... 5% on Microsoft, 5% Chegg, 5% RTX

[_zman]

Bulk of my investing is in Large, Mid, Small Cap stocks right now. It's giving me the returns I want for sure. The only thing I've really sold is international stuff and REITS after the housing market rebounded. I bought low, and got out high. I don't plan to do that kind of trading again, but it definitely paid off.

Bought some VDE (Energy ETF) at $45, hasn't done much yet, but I plan to hold that long term as well.

[Hoop_Dreams]

This is my first post ever and it's a great topic.

I only buy and hold. Last time I sold a stock was when I cleared out everything in 2007 to pay off student loans. I started buying again in 2012 with 50K into a company called Tencent. I'm still holding.

I have only 4 stocks:

TCEHY
DISH
XOM
BABA

Some are doing well, some aren't and I'm gonna go in on some Chinese health care stocks next as I think this area will boom in the next 10 years. Investing in China is a winner at the moment. For my USA stocks I like XOM because of the dividend and DISH as the spectrum assets are undervalued IMHO. S&P will always be a winner if you have a long horizon.

I will hold these stocks for at least 5 more years, probably more. I think TCEHY will be the next Amazon.

Right now I have about 70% in stocks and 30% in $$$. May up that stock % soon.

I started a position with BABA this morning. Clean balance sheets, tons of $$$, great leadership, and forward thinking.

Any reason why you believe TCEHY is the next Amazon and not BABA? I've seen BABA talked about as the Chinese equivalent of AMZN, not TCEHY.

Cathie Wood is a genius and rebalances often. It’s an actual active managed. She changes the % in holdings monthly... so what is 10% Tesla today might be 5% next month and 9% in SQ

Regardless, it’s given me a 45% return over 6 months. I’ll gladly give .75 for a 45% return

ARK has been making a killing the last few years. Dug more into Wood's background after your post. She's been two steps ahead of Wall Street for years now. She predicted this disruptive innovation a few years ago. Convinced me to buy a share of TSLA.

[FinanceBrah2004]

I have 20k into Dave and Busters [Play] at about 15 USD. how screwed am i? Im expecting it to be just a big waste of time but ill get a good pay off. Will probably dip down below 10 USD with 2nd wave.. once COVID goes away within 1.5 years or so, will be up to 30-40USD and ill 200% my bid.

[PattBattmann]

I know that something like VOO (S&P 500) is the usual go-to, safe play, but in this day and age, is there any reason not to just go with something like QQQ due to the heavy reliance on tech?

[ontclone]

I have 20k into Dave and Busters [Play] at about 15 USD. how screwed am i? Im expecting it to be just a big waste of time but ill get a good pay off. Will probably dip down below 10 USD with 2nd wave.. once COVID goes away within 1.5 years or so, will be up to 30-40USD and ill 200% my bid.

is there any chance they go bankrupt? they have a lot of long term debt.... would have to look more into the company