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[QUOTE=ChazWood;1643941493]I think it was a typo and he meant washing your balls with an Oreo cookie. Rather than cleaning it just makes a crumby mess down there.[/QUOTE]
That makes a lot more sense.
[QUOTE=_zman;1643942443]Pretty simple response to a meme is all.
But which is more effective? A vaccine or healthy lifestyle/diet choices?[/QUOTE]
Just imagine if we lived in a world where you could do both?!
[img]https://i.imgur.com/4PoYu4O.jpg[/img]
[QUOTE=JustTheDad;1643941993]Without a vaccine this trip would have about a 1 in 100 chance of getting me hospitalized with long term side effects, and maybe a 1 in 200 chance of dying. Maybe a little higher. [/QUOTE]
When you cite these kinds of odds, have you already taken into account your age, health, and presence or absence of covid specific comorbidities? How do you apply the statistics for your age group in light of how prominent obesity and other health factors influence the outcome? Just curious.
[QUOTE=JustTheDad;1643941993]I'm 53 and healthy. I just had breakfast at Assembly Hall and Lunch at Kid Rock's. Obviously no mask. Going to see Garth's concert tomorrow. Was also in several shops browsing. Nashville, really TN in general, is a low vaccine/high risk area. Given the crowds, it's pretty likely someone is contageous.
Without a vaccine this trip would have about a 1 in 100 chance of getting me hospitalized with long term side effects, and maybe a 1 in 200 chance of dying. Maybe a little higher.
Fully vaccinated with my last shot 5 months ago, I have less than a 1 in 1000 chance of a serious outcome, and I don't even know how low my mortality risk from this trip is. Pfizer hasn't given me zero risk, but it sure improved the odds...[/QUOTE]
Are you fuking kidding me? Healthy 53 YO, a trip to TN “hot zone” would have been a 1 in 100 chance of hospitalization or 1in 200 chance of dying from covid? Is this the new covid math? That’s not even close. Back to stats class sir. Hope your not the dude who calculates vaccine efficacy :p
[QUOTE=CommitmentRulz;1643942913]"In one cluster of more than 200 cases in Provincetown, Massachusetts, [b][color=red] 70 percent of the Covid positive cases since July 1 have been among vaccinated individuals[/color][/b][/QUOTE]
makes no sense...
simple logic would tell most that if this was true, then vaccinations would have had to have been the actual cause of the positive test result...
unless I'm missing something, those are astronomical odds !
[QUOTE=Oceanside;1643961443]makes no sense...
simple logic would tell most that if this was true, then vaccinations would have had to have been the actual cause of the positive test result...
unless I'm missing something, those are astronomical odds ![/QUOTE]
Vaccinations can be expected to skew antibody/antigen test results but not the NAT. NAT positives would only come from detection of viral genetic material.
[QUOTE=Plateauplower;1643957903]Are you fuking kidding me? Healthy 53 YO, a trip to TN “hot zone” would have been a 1 in 100 chance of hospitalization or 1in 200 chance of dying from covid? Is this the new covid math? That’s not even close. Back to stats class sir. Hope your not the dude who calculates vaccine efficacy :p[/QUOTE]
You're right, and I honestly laughed out loud when I re-opened this just now. I can mostly promise that's the last time I'll type from a loud bar in Nashville.
I know I read the helmet post while waiting for the bride and bridesmaids in front of us to get carded and wanting to not be so close to the coughing homeless guy asking for money. That's when I started to wonder about my odds of dying from this packed bar if I hadn't been vaccinated, and I figured ~1.4 to 1.5% mortality in my age group so 1.5 for easy math. Figured 3-4% of that for people with essentially no comorbidities. .015/25 is easy and I remember I didn't want to divide .015 by 33 and deciding 30 is good.
About 90 minutes later I unlocked my phone while waiting to get my card back from the waitress and posted my pre-lunch math. Guess I shouldn't have :) I remembered thinking, "Boy, I'm glad I got vaccinated." as I typed that on my phone.
I still am glad I got vaccinated, but I'm also wondering if I did the tip math better than the post math. I may have mixed up 20% and 40 or 50%. Waitress was nice though, so it's all good either way.
[QUOTE=JustTheDad;1643965153]That's when I started to wonder about my odds of dying from this packed bar if I hadn't been vaccinated, and I figured ~1.4 to 1.5% mortality in my age group so 1.5 for easy math. Figured 3-4% of that for people with essentially no comorbidities. .015/25 is easy and I remember I didn't want to divide .015 by 33 and deciding 30 is good.[/QUOTE]
The part you forgot were the odds of infection.
[QUOTE=ectoBgone;1643950013]When you cite these kinds of odds, have you already taken into account your age, health, and presence or absence of covid specific comorbidities? How do you apply the statistics for your age group in light of how prominent obesity and other health factors influence the outcome? Just curious.[/QUOTE]
Whelp, if you read my last post, you'll know I did and didn't... .
In the few places that had tried to tease out the zero comorbidity deaths, I remember it ranged from 1.5% to some stupidly high 15%. The high number was just an outlier from some government that must think you have to have metastatic cancer to not to be considered perfectly healthy. The others were under 5%. I think NY had 3 to 4% of the covid deaths coming from "healthy individuals" under 65. Could have been under 50. The fraction goes up the closer you get to the limit they used. For 5 or 10 year olds, it's too small to calculate. At 50 or 55, it's 3 to 4 %. So 1/33rd to 1/25th the total number. But you can't even do that, which is what I did in the bar line, because you then have to also take in to account what percentage of the age group has no comorbidities to calculate the risk. I'm too exhausted to try to find the actuarial tables that break down the age groups and health risks which I'd need to do the real math.
Edit: I lied. My brain doesn't let me skip the math. This is super loose and easy estimates, just for entertainment.
In the 2008 health survey, 69.5% of the age 55 to 64 population had at least one of the following: arthritis, current asthma, cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes. 37% had 2 or more.
Some of that has to be osteoarthritis, so lets cut it in half and say 35% of people 55 to 64 have a covid risk factor. And lets cut that in half and say in the 50 to 55 group, only 17.5% have one or more comorbidities. So if my groups overall mortality is 1.5%, and 3% of that is individuals with zero comorbidities, then in 100 people, 97% of the 1.5 people who died had a risk, and only 3% or .045 people who were healthy died.
So out of the 82.5 healthy people who got covid, .045 of them died.
.045 deaths from 82.5 people with COVID is .000545.
1/.000545 is 1833, so my risk of dying if I have no vaccine and catch SARS CoV2 is 1 in 1833.
Assuming my math is right and my guestimates are also close.
Plateauplower, have time to check me on that math?
[QUOTE=Cass40;1643942603]In other news, not really in news cos I don't watch but my conspiracy coworker doesn't want to get vaxxed so I told him just come to work but do the covid tests every week but he responded that covid kits are unreliable and damages your brain.
Oh and the antivaxxer guy from the gym today was making jab gestures and I was like "what", and he said did you get the vaccine. I said yes you already asked me that. Then he said jokingly "oh I must be getting Alzheimer's", then I said maybe you should get the vax, maybe it would help. Lol. He laughed.[/QUOTE]
Cool story.
Stfu
[QUOTE=TolerantLactose;1643965443]The part you forgot were the odds of infection.[/QUOTE]
Oh no, I left off a lot more than that lol. I just assumed my risk of exposure was probably close to 100% from standing in the super spreader bar lines, squeezing my way through the packed cowboy boot stores, souvenir shops, and honky tonks :) Drunk math is not nearly as good as drunk history.
[QUOTE=JustTheDad;1643966333]Whelp, if you read my last post, you'll know I did and didn't... .
In the few places that had tried to tease out the zero comorbidity deaths, I remember it ranged from 1.5% to some stupidly high 15%. The high number was just an outlier from some government that must think you have to have metastatic cancer to not to be considered perfectly healthy. The others were under 5%. I think NY had 3 to 4% of the covid deaths coming from "healthy individuals" under 65. Could have been under 50. The fraction goes up the closer you get to the limit they used. For 5 or 10 year olds, it's too small to calculate. At 50 or 55, it's 3 to 4 %. So 1/33rd to 1/25th the total number. But you can't even do that, which is what I did in the bar line, because you then have to also take in to account what percentage of the age group has no comorbidities to calculate the risk. I'm too exhausted to try to find the actuarial tables that break down the age groups and health risks which I'd need to do the real math.
Edit: I lied. My brain doesn't let me skip the math. This is super loose and easy estimates, just for entertainment.
In the 2008 health survey, 69.5% of the age 55 to 64 population had at least one of the following: arthritis, current asthma, cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes. 37% had 2 or more.
Some of that has to be osteoarthritis, so lets cut it in half and say 35% of people 55 to 64 have a covid risk factor. And lets cut that in half and say in the 50 to 55 group, only 17.5% have one or more comorbidities. So if my groups overall mortality is 1.5%, and 3% of that is individuals with zero comorbidities, then in 100 people, 97% of the 1.5 people who died had a risk, and only 3% or .045 people who were healthy died.
So out of the 82.5 healthy people who got covid, .045 of them died.
.045 deaths from 82.5 people with COVID is .000545.
1/.000545 is 1833, so my risk of dying if I have no vaccine and catch SARS CoV2 is 1 in 1833.
Assuming my math is right and my guestimates are also close.
[b]Plateauplower, have time to check me on that math?[/b][/QUOTE]
Yes, I do.
Here’s the math as I understand it. We are dealing with a highly communicable virus with a low mortality rate in what could be considered productive members of society. It viciously kills people who are elderly or in poor health. It originated in China (maybe) from a bat at a market that sells fish which happens to be right next to a lab that studies bat viruses.
We now have a vaccine that’s 90% effective, but everyone should wear masks which show zero benefit statistically (in real world application, not hospitals where people know how to use them), because the people who are vaccinated can still catch it and spread it. Yet, we shut down the economy because of asymptomatic transmission. However, now we have effective vaccines, which we should all get because they prevent us from dying from a virus that we can still get, transmit to others, or die from.
I think, virus gonna do, what virus gonna do…
[QUOTE=LWW;1643930513]SCrew him, he’s the guy who used it to cheat an election. This guy is just talking bs 1 person out of a million dies and this clown uses it to campaign on, screw him and screw you if you fall for it.[/QUOTE]
Met a lady today at an office I was at.
She was UNMASKED. I was masked. I could tell she’s making an effort to stay 6ft the fuk away from people. Dunno why she didn’t have a mask - I should’ve asked.
Well on the way out I thanked her for keeping the distance. And she said she had covid in December and then the delta last month - just recovered she said. She said the first time it was a bad bad flu but this last time she said she had enough of it.
She had to lay on her side to be able to breath. Her office of 10 people had an outbreak - everyone but 2 were vaccinated. They’re all sick real bad except a couple who show no symptoms.
She’s getting vaccinated in 2 weeks.
So make you wanna of this…just throwing it at y’all. I hear chit like this and I think I’ll be up for the vaccine 2.0 which will deal with covid 2.0 (lol) and so on and so forth.
They should just follow software version nomenclature.
One of my cowerokers and her family is also down. She can’t stop coughing - has black eyes from coughing she said and it only started yesterday for her.
Keep safe ladies and gentlemen
[QUOTE=TryingBB;1643970623]Met a lady today at an office I was at.
She was UNMASKED. I was masked. I could tell she’s making an effort to stay 6ft the fuk away from people. Dunno why she didn’t have a mask - I should’ve asked.
Well on the way out I thanked her for keeping the distance. And she said she had covid in December and then the delta last month - just recovered she said. She said the first time it was a bad bad flu but this last time she said she had enough of it.
She had to lay on her side to be able to breath. Her office of 10 people had an outbreak - everyone but 2 were vaccinated. They’re all sick real bad except a couple who show no symptoms.
She’s getting vaccinated in 2 weeks.
So make you wanna of this…just throwing it at y’all. I hear chit like this and I think I’ll be up for the vaccine 2.0 which will deal with covid 2.0 (lol) and so on and so forth.
They should just follow software version nomenclature.
One of my cowerokers and her family is also down. She can’t stop coughing - has black eyes from coughing she said and it only started yesterday for her.
Keep safe ladies and gentlemen[/QUOTE]
Oh jeez, I’m gonna baton down the hatches, $hits gettin serious now. I wondered why I was driving over all those bodies in the streets today.
Where do you live?
[QUOTE=TryingBB;1643970623]Met a lady today at an office I was at.
She was UNMASKED. I was masked. I could tell she’s making an effort to stay 6ft the fuk away from people. Dunno why she didn’t have a mask - I should’ve asked.
Well on the way out I thanked her for keeping the distance. And she said she had covid in December and then the delta last month - just recovered she said. She said the first time it was a bad bad flu but this last time she said she had enough of it.
She had to lay on her side to be able to breath. Her office of 10 people had an outbreak - everyone but 2 were vaccinated. They’re all sick real bad except a couple who show no symptoms.
She’s getting vaccinated in 2 weeks.
So make you wanna of this…just throwing it at y’all. I hear chit like this and I think I’ll be up for the vaccine 2.0 which will deal with covid 2.0 (lol) and so on and so forth.
They should just follow software version nomenclature.
One of my cowerokers and her family is also down. She can’t stop coughing - has black eyes from coughing she said and it only started yesterday for her.
Keep safe ladies and gentlemen[/QUOTE]
pretty pathetic sh*t even by todays BB.COM standards...
I'm guessing you've got Don lemon posters plastered on your bathroom walls .
[QUOTE=Plateauplower;1643971253]Oh jeez, I’m gonna baton down the hatches, $hits gettin serious now. I wondered why I was driving over all those bodies in the streets today.
Where do you live?[/QUOTE]
You better. Someone on internet met someone who had it, and other one who can't stop coughing.
And doctors partying it up doing drunken math and miscing.
[QUOTE=Plateauplower;1643971253]Oh jeez, I’m gonna baton down the hatches, $hits gettin serious now. I wondered why I was driving over all those bodies in the streets today.
Where do you live?[/QUOTE]
I was sharing info. You don’t like the facts I shared? Move on…my coworker, I talk to her several times a week and was talking to her for a bit on the phone and told her to hang up cuz she couldn’t stop coughing. She sounded terrible and in misery and I felt terrible talking about work with her but gotta work man…
But seriously I myself fuking wonder about the videos of wrapped bodies being dumped out of dumpsters into mass graves in europe (I think Italy) that was circling online and on WhatsApp groups - people dying from covid. What about the people who were spontaneously falling in the streets from covid? What the fuk was all that?
[QUOTE=Oceanside;1643971513]pretty pathetic sh*t even by todays BB.COM standards...
I'm guessing you've got Don lemon posters plastered on your bathroom walls .[/QUOTE]
Got nothing but porcelain and mirrors lol but more people than ever before are getting it.
None I know directly have died recently from this but IT IS spreading.
I’m actually trying to get my booster now :/ gunna just start showing up /signing up for appointments because no one in the state wants it and see if I can get another shot
[img]https://i.imgur.com/rRLUuse.png[/img]
[QUOTE=Cass40;1643971573]You better. Someone on internet met someone who had it, and other one who can't stop coughing.
And doctors partying it up doing drunken math and miscing.[/QUOTE]
Sneezing too.
Only the doctors who didn’t lose their jobs because they didn’t take the jab.
[QUOTE=TryingBB;1643974593]I was sharing info. You don’t like the facts I shared? Move on…my coworker, I talk to her several times a week and was talking to her for a bit on the phone and told her to hang up cuz she couldn’t stop coughing. She sounded terrible and in misery and I felt terrible talking about work with her but gotta work man…
But seriously I myself fuking wonder about the videos of wrapped bodies being dumped out of dumpsters into mass graves in europe (I think Italy) that was circling online and on WhatsApp groups - people dying from covid. What about the people who were spontaneously falling in the streets from covid? What the fuk was all that?
Got nothing but porcelain and mirrors lol but [b]more people than ever before are getting it.[/b]
None I know directly have died recently from this but IT IS spreading.[/QUOTE]
Really? Jeez I guess they are really underreporting cases.
[img]https://fermentationwineblog.com/wp-content/uploads/zombie.jpg[/img]
[QUOTE=snailsrus;1643976213]I’m actually trying to get my booster now :/ gunna just start showing up /signing up for appointments because no one in the state wants it and see if I can get another shot[/QUOTE]
Just go get vaccinated again, nobody is going to turn you away. I wish everyone who was vaccinated would go for round two so it would look like the entire country is vaxxed by the doses administered.
[url]https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210730/leaked-cdc-document-new-report-warn-of-deltas-contagiousness[/url]
[quote]In the MMWR report, Catherine M. Brown, DVM, an epidemiologist for the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and colleagues summarized 469 cases of COVID-19 that occurred in Barnstable County, where 69% of the population is fully vaccinated.
Of the 469 cases, around 90% were caused by delta and 74% occurred in individuals who were fully vaccinated. Among the fully vaccinated with an infection, 79% were symptomatic.
Five of the people infected were hospitalized, including four who were fully vaccinated. No deaths were reported.[/quote]
[QUOTE=TolerantLactose;1643985593][url]https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20210730/leaked-cdc-document-new-report-warn-of-deltas-contagiousness[/url][/QUOTE]
Small sample size and it goes against larger data sets but [I]"Five of the people infected were hospitalized, including four who were fully vaccinated."[/I] is a troubling stat.
[QUOTE=mgftp;1643986213]Small sample size and it goes against larger data sets but [I]"Five of the people infected were hospitalized, including four who were fully vaccinated."[/I] is a troubling stat.[/QUOTE]
I'm trying to locate the clip where the health minister of New South Wales, AUS, was giving a covid update press conference. The numbers he gave was 141 patients in ICU with covid, of which 139 were fully vaxxed, 1 was single-dose vaxxed and 1 was unvaxxed. I don't know the vaccination rate in NSW but I doubt it's 99+%.
Edit: it was 141 hospitalized, not necessarily in ICU.
@5:55 "141 people are in hospital with covid at present. 43 are in intensive care"
@6:35 "All but 1 are vaccinated. 1 person has just received 1 dose of vaccine."
[youtube]46vq4Mn2DUQ[/youtube]
I like these numbers.
[url]www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9846225/A-dose-COVID-reality-126K-164M-fully-vaxxed-Americans-breakthrough-cases.html[/url]
Breakthrough vaxxed=
Only 6,587 - or 0.004 per cent - of the 163 million Americans who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had suffered serious 'breakthrough' infections
The CDC reported that, of the 6,587, a total of 6,239 people were hospitalized and 1,263 died
Out of 163 million Americans who are fully vaccinated, 1,263 died from COVID - representing 0.0008 per cent
[QUOTE=TolerantLactose;1643986543]I'm trying to locate the clip where the health minister of New South Wales, AUS, was giving a covid update press conference. The numbers he gave was 141 patients in ICU with covid, of which 139 were fully vaxxed, 1 was single-dose vaxxed and 1 was unvaxxed. I don't know the vaccination rate in NSW but I doubt it's 99+%.
Edit: it was 141 hospitalized, not necessarily in ICU.
@5:55 "141 people are in hospital with covid at present. 43 are in intensive care"
@6:35 "All but 1 are vaccinated. 1 person has just received 1 dose of vaccine."
[youtube]46vq4Mn2DUQ[/youtube][/QUOTE]This is incredible. Are we about to "swing" to the point that the FULLY VAXXED are the real dangers to society?
[QUOTE=x-trainer ben;1643987233]I like these numbers.
[url]www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9846225/A-dose-COVID-reality-126K-164M-fully-vaxxed-Americans-breakthrough-cases.html[/url]
Breakthrough vaxxed=
Only 6,587 - or 0.004 per cent - of the 163 million Americans who have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 had suffered serious 'breakthrough' infections
The CDC reported that, of the 6,587, a total of 6,239 people were hospitalized and 1,263 died
Out of 163 million Americans who are fully vaccinated, 1,263 died from COVID - representing 0.0008 per cent[/QUOTE]
It would be better to see the numbers for the unvaxxed for this period as well for context.
If the number of unvaxxed being infected >>> vaxxed being infected, it calls into question the CDC's updated mask recommendations.
[QUOTE=TryingBB;1643970623]Met a lady today at an office I was at.
She was UNMASKED. I was masked. I could tell she’s making an effort to stay 6ft the fuk away from people. Dunno why she didn’t have a mask - I should’ve asked.
Well on the way out I thanked her for keeping the distance. And she said she had covid in December and then the delta last month - just recovered she said. She said the first time it was a bad bad flu but this last time she said she had enough of it.
She had to lay on her side to be able to breath. Her office of 10 people had an outbreak - everyone but 2 were vaccinated. They’re all sick real bad except a couple who show no symptoms.
She’s getting vaccinated in 2 weeks.
So make you wanna of this…just throwing it at y’all. I hear chit like this and I think I’ll be up for the vaccine 2.0 which will deal with covid 2.0 (lol) and so on and so forth.
They should just follow software version nomenclature.
One of my cowerokers and her family is also down. She can’t stop coughing - has black eyes from coughing she said and it only started yesterday for her.
Keep safe ladies and gentlemen[/QUOTE]
I don't know one fuking person who has this, my 90 year old grandmom is not even vaccinated, she went to the hospital recently for nothing related to covid, and still didn't get the vaccine.
Not saying it's not still out there, but I'm won't be a paranoid fuking fruitcake.
And why the fuk would you even talk to her, if you are so GD concerned, again you keep showing the stupidity.
I may be an anal fusser azzhole, but I'm not stupid:) I'm throwing a no hitter game son.
[QUOTE=Plateauplower;1643981273]Sneezing too.
Only the doctors who didn’t lose their jobs because they didn’t take the jab.
Really? Jeez I guess they are really underreporting cases.
[img]https://fermentationwineblog.com/wp-content/uploads/zombie.jpg[/img]
Just go get vaccinated again, nobody is going to turn you away. I wish everyone who was vaccinated would go for round two so it would look like the entire country is vaxxed by the doses administered.[/QUOTE]hell I’ll take the jab 4 times lol I had moderna first then second shot in Jan/feb
[QUOTE=Plateauplower;1643981273]
I wish everyone who was vaccinated would go for round two so it would look like the entire country is vaxxed by the doses administered.[/QUOTE]
I got this Pockets, you can’t be calling out your buddy and all.....
You haven’t even gotten round 1 yet?
[QUOTE=LWW;1643997453]I got this Pockets, you can’t be calling out your buddy and all.....
You haven’t even gotten round 1 yet?[/QUOTE]
Put your gun away Curly before you hurt yourself
[img]https://i.imgur.com/yDgHCXl.jpg[/img]
My guess is PP's wife didn't make him get a shot like some people on here, That and perhaps he had covid and is relying on the antibodies from that to keep him safe. Pay attention homie
I think I am buddies with everyone on here, even you ya chubby lil bass turd