COVID-19, let's put updates here
Hey all,
Been reading/following a lot about this in recent days. Happy to take any questions. Some current thoughts for us in the USA (which is where I am) from various people in the medical community (I'm not gonna provide sources as a lot of this is from various physician groups on ******** and it would be challenging to source well, but if anyone needs a specific reference I can try to provide):
- We are well past the containment phase. Now we're trying to slow the rapid spread of the disease and care for those who need it
- Expected that 40-70% of Americans may get this over the next 12-18 months
- Fatality rate seems to be 10x that of influenza, age 80+ may have fatality rate 10-15%, in Italy with recent numbers fatality rate was 0.1% <40yo, 0.6% age 50-60, 2.7% age 60-70, higher above that
- No data yet to suggest this will die down in the summer but if it does it will almost certainly come back next fall
- People may be infectious 2 days prior to symptom onset up to 14 days post onset. There will be some outliers
- Unclear how long this virus will last on surfaces but it is very easy to kill with standard microbial sanitation methods
- If you get sick from this or something else and have cold-like symptoms and you are not high risk (ie, elderly or other cardiopulmonary or immunocompromising condition), STAY HOME unless you start to have trouble breathing. There is no treatment we can give for this. If you are elderly or have a high risk condition, consult your doctor and ask if you are eligible for compassionate use of Remdesivir as this seems to be helping the critically ill patients
- When people get really sick it seems to occur 7-10 days into illness and then there is a rapid decline into respiratory failure (over 1-2 days)
The situation and guidance is changing very rapidly. Biggest take away is if you think you are sick call your doctor for guidance rather than go to the doctor's office in person (unless you have trouble breathing) as the biggest goal at this time should be to slow the spread of the disease as much as possible so the healthcare system does not get completely overrun.