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We haven’t even had the recession news event yet.
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre;1668337803] There is long road between 8ish percent inflation to feds 2 percent goal.[/QUOTE]
That’s right
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Finally dumped my short positions. Im going in for a quick swing now, RSI on daily is below 25-28 right now on major guys. They usually don't get much lower, last 2 times were Covid 2020 crash and Jan 2022 dump.
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Just made my weekly buys. I love Fridays!
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Up nicely on TZA. Almost 9% today alone.
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[img]https://c.tenor.com/D1r5-cD_EFAAAAAC/first-time-youll-get-used-to-it.gif[/img]
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One point away from 2022 low point S and P 500. Will be interesting to see if this breaks people out of the "any day were getting a pivot" mindset.
Edit: 3665 has been hit.
Double Edit: Google S and P graph data
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in few hours Jerome will be speaking at some event.
bulls better hope he walks back some of the things he said at FOMC.
otherwise June low is not going to hold up at this rate.
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From what I can tell, the S&P just broke below the previous low for the year. The downward trend line continues.
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not yet almost there.
these brutal rotations could cause massive squeeze next week.
since there will be monetizing of puts.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/wkMAekt.png[/img]
yeah you're right this trend line has been intact every time
4000 by year end is now pipe dream.
maybe santa rally to 3900
but it will be another rally to sell calls on
[img]https://i.imgur.com/sCkFIQP.png[/img]
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre;1668342323]in few hours Jerome will be speaking at some event.
bulls better hope he walks back some of the things he said at FOMC.
otherwise June low is not going to hold up at this rate.[/QUOTE]
I doubt he walks anything back, even remotely. First they sat on their hands when they could have started taking gradual action. Now, they're going full speed ahead with the economy teetering. JPow seemed pretty intent on pointing out that they were only getting started and that pain was coming.
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If this keeps up we will at least be done with hikes for the year.
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[QUOTE=taf1968;1668342733]I doubt he walks anything back, even remotely. First they sat on their hands when they could have started taking gradual action. Now, they're going full speed ahead with the economy teetering. JPow seemed pretty intent on pointing out that they were only getting started and that pain was coming.[/QUOTE]
They want to soft land this.
Fed has been playing both sides, on purpose refusing to say anything further out.
Market gets too hot on idea that fed pivots they send out Fed speakers to tell market phuck off don't fight us.
Think his tone will be dovish today.
[QUOTE=RobParks2M;1668342993]If this keeps up we will at least be done with hikes for the year.[/QUOTE]
no chance.
stock market is not the economy.
you need to see unemployment start to tick much higher 6-7% percent before fed thinks about thinking about pause.
that goldman cut of SP from 4300 down to 3600 this morning was the fuel.
this is what fed sees
[img]https://i.imgur.com/qwhzKAc.png[/img]
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Sad thing is Americans voted for this chit.
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[QUOTE=ghostfacedup;1668344103]Sad thing is Americans voted for this chit.[/QUOTE]
not me
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[QUOTE=ghostfacedup;1668344103]Sad thing is Americans voted for this chit.[/QUOTE]
Result would be same no matter who is in power. (thats like saying Bush is responsible for 08 crash)
You can't print trillions and than expect no inflation.
Its called populism look into it.
But hey lets turn it into political thread again.
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[QUOTE=Lefticle;1668345313]Bitch please.
Democrats voted for further stimulus, printing trillions.
Democrats voted for trillions in new spending in recent bills.
Democrats pushed green deals, destroying domestic oil production and driving up fuel prices. A main driver of inflation.
Democrats did nothing to stop pootin's invasion of ukraine, causing further inflation.
Saying democrats aren't responsible for these things tell us exactly how blind and foolish you are.[/QUOTE]
lololololol Trump spent way more trillions then the dems have and added $8T to the national debt on the heels of the tax cut for the rich AND bullying the Fed to keep rates low. You know very well if, god forbid, Trump had been elected he'd be cry tweeting non-stop about the Fed raising rates. Phuk was a cancer to our country.
You dumb son.
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[QUOTE=Lefticle;1668345313]Bitch please.
Democrats voted for further stimulus, printing trillions.
Democrats voted for trillions in new spending in recent bills.
Democrats pushed green deals, destroying domestic oil production and driving up fuel prices. A main driver of inflation.
Democrats did nothing to stop pootin's invasion of ukraine, causing further inflation.
Saying democrats aren't responsible for these things tell us exactly how blind and foolish you are.[/QUOTE]
Cares act you dumb phuck. Go look up debt by presidents. They are all the same debt to the moon.
The emergence of people like Trump / Sanders two far opposite sides created even more populism.
Want to know what happens next, you retard once reps win house and senate, they will start doing same shiit passing bills to help average joe struggling things like home credit tax etc.
That does what = create more inflation. Both are doing same thing.
There is extreme income inequality.......in order to win votes both sides will do same shiit.
Also come back with riveting discussion points when you can figure out difference between Blackstone and Blackrock.
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This Fed discussion doesn't seem like the kind of thing where there's going to be any there there.
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I personally couldn't care less about domestic politics, feels like it doesn't matter who sits at the top because there are so many different levels and processes that it'll all be the same chit in the end
Geopolitics is far more interesting and consequential in my mind
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Whelp. Guess that's that. Figured we would teater around June lows but not break them.
I'm positioned for a bounce off june lows, and hopes that market makers want to rip some faces on all the puts. If we break far below that today I'll be taking a few losses. Expect some sort of rally next week, so much oversold.
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre;1668334953]I would be very careful trying to knife catch.
There is forced liquidations happening in energy (oil) stocks atm.
That is never good sign.[/QUOTE]
How do you tell if there are forced liquidations in oil? I like devons 8% divi and could average in and sell premium but dont want to jump in too early.
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[QUOTE=TugOfPeace;1668350133]There has to be a bounce sometime between now and midterm elections at the very least. Stock market looking this bad during elections will only accelerate dem's destruction
Regret DCAing into ZIM now.. it alone is wrecking my port[/QUOTE]
I think today is a good day to be buying quality names for nov/dec.
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[QUOTE=TugOfPeace;1668350133]There has to be a bounce sometime between now and midterm elections at the very least. Stock market looking this bad during elections will only accelerate dem's destruction
Regret DCAing into ZIM now.. it alone is wrecking my port[/QUOTE]
rip
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[QUOTE=Lefticle;1668345313]Bitch please.
Democrats voted for further stimulus, printing trillions.
Democrats voted for trillions in new spending in recent bills.
Democrats pushed green deals, destroying domestic oil production and driving up fuel prices. A main driver of inflation.
Democrats did nothing to stop pootin's invasion of ukraine, causing further inflation.
Saying democrats aren't responsible for these things tell us exactly how blind and foolish you are.[/QUOTE]
Cry more snowflake. Why don’t you go post in your thread with your friends.
If you don’t see fed did far more than politicians you are blind and ignorant.
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[QUOTE=Carbonfibre;1668346883]Cares act you dumb phuck. Go look up debt by presidents. They are all the same debt to the moon.
The emergence of people like Trump / Sanders two far opposite sides created even more populism.
Want to know what happens next, you retard once reps win house and senate, they will start doing same shiit passing bills to help average joe struggling things like home credit tax etc.
That does what = create more inflation. Both are doing same thing.
There is extreme income inequality.......[B]in order to win votes both sides will do same shiit. [/B]
Also come back with riveting discussion points when you can figure out difference between Blackstone and Blackrock.[/QUOTE]
My total lay assessment: QE should have backed off in Fall of 2020, but no way Trump was going to risk having dow drop a few points since his re-election was already unlikely. Biden should have immediately put the brakes on, but instead he slammed his foot on the gas pedal.
2 pretty big fukk ups, IMO. Think if 2020 weren't an election year, we would be in better shape. Just bad luck.
In any case, the bold reminds me of this quote:
[quote]A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy[/quote]
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[QUOTE=RobParks2M;1668350443]Cry more snowflake. Why don’t you go post in your thread with your friends.
[b]If you don’t see fed did far more than politicians you are blind and ignorant.[/b][/QUOTE]
Agreed, but just LOL if you think dems didn't throw a ton of gas on the fire
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VIX daily RSI 70, SPY 27, high volume coming in. Starting to look like a local bottom like the other ones. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a quick 3-5% pump next few days before more dumping/flat til earnings over. Definitely not a July bear rally coming
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[QUOTE=Lefticle;1668351463]Agreed, but just LOL if you think dems didn't throw a ton of gas on the fire[/QUOTE]
As poster above said both sides have done it around election time. Tbh when trump was railing against hikes I thought we needed them then and not those sissy 0.25 fukkin hikes.
That said forgiving student loans definitely isn’t helping any causes and I’m almost certain if fed gets what they want (unemployment 5%+) they are going to push student loan payments out AGAIN.
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[QUOTE=mulletwarrior;1668350743]My total lay assessment: QE should have backed off in Fall of 2020, but no way Trump was going to risk having dow drop a few points since his re-election was already unlikely. Biden should have immediately put the brakes on, but instead he slammed his foot on the gas pedal.
2 pretty big fukk ups, IMO. Think if 2020 weren't an election year, we would be in better shape. Just bad luck.
In any case, the bold reminds me of this quote:[/QUOTE]
yeah spot on quote there.
this leaves Fed to do everything and they have only one tool (monetary policy) to fight two different things.
you want lower inflation = rate hike = high unemployment
I mean every FOMC is now +/- 150-200 point mover on SP 500. If anyone can't deny power of Fed than.....
