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View Full Version : ITT: I aware you of the Kobe Assist



ShweezyBTFO
12-08-2012, 12:42 AM
Kobe haters/sdboxscore = mad as fuk right now


CLIFFS: a guy who is good with numbers and didn't go to a poverty school (unlike 95% of the misc) quantifies the value in a kobe bryant miss.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8719297/how-kobe-bryant-missed-shots-translate-new-nba-statistic-kobe-assist



The Kobe Assist
Introducing a new NBA statistic that proves that missing shots is sometimes just as valuable as making them
By Kirk Goldsberry on December 6, 2012

(deleted some stuff due to post limit)


Many times these field goals shape the outcomes of basketball games, but we neglect to consider what exactly they follow. We fail to explore the interactions between shot events and put-backs. We fail to understand which shooting environments are most or least conducive to offensive rebounds. We only kind of know which players' and teams' missed shots are most likely to result in put-backs. Most important, we have no idea who leads the NBA in Kobe Assists.

Spoiler alert: Kobe Bryant is the king of the Kobe Assist and hence its namesake. Over the last two seasons, Kobe had more than 200 Kobe Assists, which is by far the most in the league and also precedes the arrival of Dwight Howard, the most dominant interior presence in the NBA. The combination of one of the league's most voluminous and creative jump shooters with the league's most dominant interior force will only proliferate the Kobe Assist phenomenon in L.A.

While Kobe haters may delight in the idea that many of Kobe's best passes are actually his missed shots, I would suggest that these folks temper their delight because, like it or not, these passes are effective. I would also argue that many times Kobe Assists are not as accidental as they may seem; in fact, the belief that these outcomes are "lucky" or these bounces are "fortuitous" diminishes the considerable skills required for an offensive team to extend a possession or score those critical "second chance" points. A 16-foot jumper during a fast break is a horrible shot in part because there is little chance a teammate is present in case you miss; that same jumper in a half-court set when Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are on your team and near the basket is nowhere near as foolish. The latter is the actual shooting environment in Los Angeles; this is the ecosystem where Kobe Bryant lives.

As a general rule, NBA offenses rebound 32 percent of their misses. But this number is not homogeneous league-wide; it depends on the team, the shooter, and many other variables especially team priorities. The Celtics, who famously prioritize transition defense over offensive rebounding, only rebound 23 percent of their misses, while the high-flying and physical Denver Nuggets capture 42 percent of their missed shots. The Lakers prioritize offensive rebounds, and given their personnel that makes a lot of sense for them.

Assist

As of November 30, Kobe has attempted 289 shots. He has missed 146 of them, but the Lakers have retained possession on 50 of those misses. Furthermore, the Lakers have immediately converted 22 of those 50 offensive rebounds into points. So far this year, Kobe has 22 Kobe Assists, which trails only Dion Waiters and Carmelo Anthony. You might be saying, "Well, since Kobe shoots so much, this isn't that special." Not so fast 15 percent of Kobe's misses immediately lead to Lakers put-backs, which is much higher than the league average. In comparison, Dallas's Vince Carter has missed over 100 shots and only has three Kobe Assists all year. The Lakers have a smarter, more responsive jump-shooting environment than almost any other team in the NBA.

But some of Kobe's misses are even more "effective" than others. So far this season, Kobe has taken 107 close-range shots (within 7.5 feet). He's made 59 percent of them, which is very good, but what is scary is that of his 44 misses in this zone, the Lakers have rebounded 52 percent of them, and immediately put back 32 percent of them. Breaking it down this way raises provocative questions about how we evaluate shooting in the NBA. Out of 100 close-range Kobe shots, 59 go in and 41 miss. Of those 41 misses, the Lakers grab 21 of them; the defense grabs only 20 of them. This means 80 percent of Kobe's close-range shots either result in immediate points or a "fresh 24." Furthermore, out of those 44 misses, 14 will become "put-backs" so, out of 100 close-range Kobe shots, 59 immediately find the net and 14 more find the net within seconds of being rebounded by a Laker; 73 percent of Kobe's close-range shot attempts become points for the Lakers within five seconds.

Around the league this season, there are other examples of effective misses. Cavs rookie Dion Waiters provides a fascinating case. He's making 36 percent of his 3s so far this season, which is average, but incredibly the Cavs have rebounded 35 of his 54 misses (65 percent) from beyond the arc. Elsewhere, the Knicks put back close-range misses by Carmelo 35 percent of the time. Of course, these high numbers have a lot to do with Anderson Varejao and Tyson Chandler, who are both dominant rebounders, but it's not that simple. The presence of a dominant rebounder does not ensure Kobe Assists. The Rockets have only put back 8 percent of James Harden's 147 missed shots this season despite the presence of Omer Asik, the league's third leading rebounder. Kobe Assists also depend on shot location. Although the Knicks love to rebound and put back Carmelo's close-range misses, they very rarely put back any of Carmelo's mid-range misses, and Knicks fans' subconscious knowledge of this may explain their groans about mid-range Melo. By conventional numbers, Carmelo is a fairly average jump shooter and a slightly above-average close-range scorer, but when we look more broadly at the basketball sequences these numbers take on a completely different tone. The Knicks rebound 55 percent of his close-range misses but only 14 percent of his mid-range misses. When he is close to the basket, good things happen that field goal percentage will never be able to explain. All Carmelo misses are not created equal.

As another example, consider the cases of Elton Brand and Derrick Rose. Conventional wisdom suggests Elton Brand is a better mid-range shooter than Derrick Rose. Over the last two seasons Elton Brand made 381 out of his 782 mid-range jumpers (49 percent). This is really impressive because as a whole the league shoots only 38 percent from mid-range. During the same window, Derrick Rose made 294 of his 724 mid-range shots (41 percent), which isn't bad, but it's much closer to average than to elite. Again, field goal percentage does not tell the whole story. The Bulls rebounded 152 of Rose's 430 misses (35 percent), while the Sixers rebounded only 63 of Brand's 401 misses (16 percent). Looking at these shots through another lens, 62 percent of Rose's mid-range shots result in points or a fresh possession for the Bulls. For Brand, 57 percent of his mid-range shots result in points or a fresh possession for the Sixers. Which is better?

The Rose-Brand comparison suggests that by appending offensive rebounding rate or put-back rate to field goal percentage we can more accurately assess a shot's true value. Every time a shot is released, a potential change of possession gets its wings. An additional reason close-range shots are more effective than mid-range shots is that, when missed, they are rebounded by the offensive team at much higher rates; in other words, they kill possessions at lower rates than jump shots.

You can also think of Kobe Assists as delayed makes. This way it's also easy to reevaluate an individual shooter's shooting efficiency. Our dominant shooting analytic is field goal percentage, which is essentially the number of made shots per 100 attempts. Well, if we extend our temporal window of analysis to account for these delayed makes, we can start to make interesting new inferences about overall shooting efficiency.

Every offensive rebound comes from somewhere. More specifically, every offensive rebound follows a missed shot that was attempted by an offensive player somewhere on the court. By neglecting to evaluate the contrails of offensive rebounding events, we shortchange our understanding of the game. Take, for example, the game's best pure rebounder, Kevin Love, who has recently become a more prolific 3-point shooter. However, when Love takes a 3-point shot he is obviously not in a great rebounding position. As a result, Love's 3-point attempts elicit fewer offensive rebounds and Kobe Assists than those of his teammates. Over the past two seasons, the Wolves have rebounded their own 3-point misses 26 percent of the time. But this number for Love is 20 percent it's 30 percent for Luke Ridnour. So, while looking at the surface of field goal percentage, Kevin Love seems to be a decent 3-point shooter, but when we examine the sequential nature of the Timberwolves' 3-point shooting his attempts are less efficient than many of his teammates.

Although the smartest basketball analysts evaluate success by possessions, for the most part the temporal extent of basketball analysis remains too narrow. Anyone who has ever acknowledged that the "assist" has some value has therefore admitted that basketball outcomes exhibit sensitive dependence on the events immediately preceding them. But this concept goes well beyond passing, is central to basketball strategy, and is part of what separates basketball from other games we love to measure. Baseball analytics had its epiphany in part because Bill James and others realized that baseball was only barely a team sport, and really could be reduced to a discrete sequence of outcomes that involved singular players competing in sequences of one-on-one scenarios. But basketball achievements do not occur in a vacuum; just as it is rare for one player to be solely responsible for a made basket, it is similarly rare for one player to be solely responsible for other types of events, including rebounds and put-backs.

Although Kobe Assists are admittedly a silly reminder of the natural connectedness of basketball plays, they also provide a real diagnostic of how well offensive ecosystems cooperate. In the taxonomy of the NBA, there are various species of superstars. Different players do different things, and as evidenced by the league's great offenses, like the one in San Antonio, the best teams are the ones that somehow find a way to be greater than the sum of their individual parts. When you step back and think about combining Steve Nash, Kobe Bryant, and Dwight Howard it seems obvious that they would coalesce to become a ridiculous collective scoring device, yet look no further than Mike Brown for proof that this is easier said than done. As Kobe eclipses the 30,000-point milestone, we're reminded of how great a scorer he was, and still is. There's no doubt that Kobe is still the king of the Lakers' offensive ecosystem, and it's up to the Lakers' coaches to devise schemes that both acknowledge and optimize this. Kobe shots will happen, and they will happen a lot, but what happens after them may determine the outcome of this Lakers season.

xedmike
12-08-2012, 12:45 AM
tldr

BigJaffaCakes
12-08-2012, 12:58 AM
So what you're saying is Kobe has played with some dominant big men in his career who are good at cleaning up his bricks?

ShweezyBTFO
12-08-2012, 01:56 AM
So what you're saying is Kobe has played with some dominant big men in his career who are good at cleaning up his bricks?

So what you're saying is...you didn't read the article? Got it.

AmazinJason
12-08-2012, 02:45 AM
I've actually thought about this before. Not exactly the idea of the "Kobe Assist", but the idea that some misses are better than others.

A big man like Kevin Love or Bargnani taking a 3 is not as valuable as a smaller point guard/shooting guard taking a 3 because it means that the big man is outside taking the 3 and not in the paint fighting for a potential offensive rebound. Even if Love makes 3's at a 40% rate, maybe 10% of the misses will be offensively rebounded, while if his teammate Conley made 3's at a 35% rate, maybe 30% of the misses will be offensively rebounded. Which would make Conley taking 3's actually more valuable than Love taking 3's.

At the same time, a corner 3 missed is worse than a missed 3 somewhere in the middle of the court, because it puts the 3 point shooter in a worse position to get back on transition defense.

BigJaffaCakes
12-08-2012, 08:21 AM
So what you're saying is...you didn't read the article? Got it.

I did read it and its crap, picking out a few stats and claiming that they are actually somehow good shots without making a concrete correlation.

The players it uses as an example, Kobe, Rose, Waiters all play for teams that have been elite offensive rebounding teams (Bulls were number one actually last year). The article tries to wave off this argument, that these "kobe assists" do not occur purely because the player plays on a good offensive rebounding by using the Rockets as an example, well the Rockets are only a slightly above average offensive rebounding despite having Asik whereas (as per the player examples) Cleveland is 3rd, Lakers are hanging around Top 5 territory (and would have for most of Kobe's career) and Chicago was number one last year when Rose was playing.

Funny that huh

WesCracker
12-08-2012, 08:34 AM
Lol what a read. BRB uhh wait/

ShweezyBTFO
12-08-2012, 09:14 AM
I did read it and its crap, picking out a few stats and claiming that they are actually somehow good shots without making a concrete correlation.

The players it uses as an example, Kobe, Rose, Waiters all play for teams that have been elite offensive rebounding teams (Bulls were number one actually last year). The article tries to wave off this argument, that these "kobe assists" do not occur purely because the player plays on a good offensive rebounding by using the Rockets as an example, well the Rockets are only a slightly above average offensive rebounding despite having Asik whereas (as per the player examples) Cleveland is 3rd, Lakers are hanging around Top 5 territory (and would have for most of Kobe's career) and Chicago was number one last year when Rose was playing.

Funny that huh

so then are you intelligent enough to backtest the stat, or are you just gonna cry some more?

PuNjAbixxPheNoM
12-08-2012, 09:21 AM
Who shot the ball before Horry made that game winner against the Kings in 2002? Kobe assist? Praise the GODBE

rhyfelwr
12-08-2012, 09:26 AM
Interesting concept. They should integrate this into the next 2k game so my little brothers point guard actually gets assists

I OuTsiDeR I
12-08-2012, 10:53 AM
I agree with the post that said some misses are better than others.

The Brand/Rose comparison was just stupid. A guard shooting and missing has a higher chance of getting his shot rebounded because his C and PF are there to do it. But when a PF takes a shot his chances of getting his shot rebounded is less? You don't say. Could it be because the guard is already heading back on D and only the C could try to get the rebound? \

Since when was 41% good shooting from mid range?

This is all common sense and it doesn't make missed shots an assist.

ShweezyBTFO
03-11-2014, 06:47 PM
I agree with the post that said some misses are better than others.

The Brand/Rose comparison was just stupid. A guard shooting and missing has a higher chance of getting his shot rebounded because his C and PF are there to do it. But when a PF takes a shot his chances of getting his shot rebounded is less? You don't say. Could it be because the guard is already heading back on D and only the C could try to get the rebound? \

Since when was 41% good shooting from mid range?

This is all common sense and it doesn't make missed shots an assist.

how dare you insult GOATbe.


Let this thread be proof that I don't hate Kobe. Daewoo_Nadalfanboy can eat a dikk

Daewoo_Lanos
03-11-2014, 07:44 PM
how dare you insult GOATbe.


Let this thread be proof that I don't hate Kobe. Daewoo_Nadalfanboy can eat a dikk

woosah bruh. don't let the anger of empty pockets take over your mind. you're better than that.

if you want 5 more bucks to get in on the GSW/DAL game, i'm here for you.

ShweezyBTFO
03-11-2014, 09:28 PM
woosah bruh. don't let the anger of empty pockets take over your mind. you're better than that.

if you want 5 more bucks to get in on the GSW/DAL game, i'm here for you.

sorry but I'd rather take my chances with the guy from Nebraska who is self-employed and runs his own meth lab.
















phaggot :)

apappas7787
03-11-2014, 09:33 PM
In on one star thread

Daewoo_Lanos
03-11-2014, 10:08 PM
sorry but I'd rather take my chances with the guy from Nebraska who is self-employed and runs his own meth lab.
















phaggot :)

inb4


http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5202a27069beddf833000007-1200/12-jesses-friend-combo-gets-murdered-by-an-11-year-old-on-a-bike.jpg

ShweezyBTFO
03-11-2014, 10:09 PM
inb4


http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/5202a27069beddf833000007-1200/12-jesses-friend-combo-gets-murdered-by-an-11-year-old-on-a-bike.jpg

in on srsmethhead taking a trip to belize with Mr. Armintrout.

Baghdadassup
03-11-2014, 10:19 PM
Mount Rushmore
http://img.allvoices.com/thumbs/event/609/480/54443819-kobe-bryant.jpg
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.a/6a00d8341c630a53ef0133ecfff7b8970b-800wi
http://pinoytutorial.com/lifebytes/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Kobe-Bryant.jpg
http://i43.tinypic.com/112e42v.jpg

PureCardio
03-11-2014, 11:13 PM
I would venture a guess and say that Iverson has to be the goat Kobe assist player.



I don't know why they wouldn't compile a quick table to show who is top 10 in Kobe assists per game per shot, or something like that. I would also like to see if other Lakers/Cavs/Knicks players put up similar Kobe assists, although I would assume the best chance for a Kobe assist is at the beginning/middle of the clock which is when those three seem to shoot the most.




I would say this is a good team building tool, and I'm sure many teams look at things like this, but I don't see how it is useful for comparing player vs player(which is what he did.)

PureCardio
03-11-2014, 11:14 PM
Also who got teh Kobe assist in game 6 srs question

HoustonMiscer
03-11-2014, 11:15 PM
Did not read but in on Shweezy thread

Gerald151
03-11-2014, 11:20 PM
OP made this thread when he was poor. #onlyexplanation

ShweezyBTFO
03-11-2014, 11:22 PM
OP made this thread when he was poor. #onlyexplanation

back when me and my boyfriend CCballer hated each other. #WTW #woebegonethreadwednesdays