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Tyler44
08-14-2012, 08:57 AM
Jason Stark blog on ESPN this morning, what are your thoughts?

http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/stark_jayson/id/8265725/the-case-aroldis-chapman-winning-national-league-cy-young-award


If the season ended today (which remains highly unlikely), I regret to inform the Knuckleballer Fan Club that the 2012 National League Cy Young Award winner shouldn't be R.A. Dickey.

It also wouldn't be Johnny Cueto. Or Jordan Zimmermann. Or Ryan Vogelsong. Or anyone else whose job description includes the words "starting pitcher."

No, sir. The NL Cy Young winner should be the one, the only, Aroldis Chapman.

I have voted in a half-dozen Cy Young elections over the years. I have to pick a winner -- for column-writing and air-time-filling purposes -- every season. So I understand that our mission statement as Cy Young voters is simple. We just need to answer one uncomplicated question:

Who has been the most dominant pitcher in this league?


Aroldis Chapman
#54 RP
Cincinnati Reds
2012 STATS
GM
53
W
4
L
4
BB
14
K
106
ERA
1.26
Friends, if that's the question, how is there any answer this year besides Chapman?

If you talk to hitters about the pitchers in this Cy Young field, they'll tell you that they admire Dickey. They respect Cueto. They have no fun facing Zimmermann. They have no interest whatsoever in hitting against the other lights-out closer candidate, Craig Kimbrel. But you know what they think about Chapman? I can sum it up in one word:

Fear.

"A lot of guys nowadays throw 100 [mph]," Skip Schumaker said, "but I've never seen anybody with a fastball like his.


Schumaker
"For one thing," he said, looking up at a visitor who was approximately a foot and a half away, "when you face him, it feels like [he is as far away as] me to you. Then he winds up, and he's all herky-jerky. He's big. He's tall. He's throwing elbows and knees at you. And even though you're sitting dead-red fastball, it's just like it's by you, before you can even think about it. I've never seen a fastball explode like that. Ever. It's just ridiculous."

"Ridiculous" is an excellent word to describe the numbers Chapman is piling up this year.

• Start with this one: 106 strikeouts, 25 hits. Unless something bizarre happens, this man's numbers project out to make him the first relief pitcher in history with 110 more strikeouts than hits. Crazy.

• Then there's this: This fellow is averaging nearly 17 strikeouts per nine innings (16.74, to be exact). How many other pitchers in history have done that? None, of course.

• OK, next up: The batting average of the 216 hitters who have had the misfortune to step into the box against Chapman this year is an insane .127. Want to guess how many pitchers in the live-ball era have proved to be that unhittable in any season of 50 innings or more? Not a one. (The record is .133 against Eric Gagne in his ultra-dominating Cy Young season in 2003.)

• Meanwhile, talk about dominating his league: Chapman's ERA against the NL this year -- in 47 trips to the mound -- is (ready for this?) 0.17. That's 51 2/3 innings, one earned run. NL hitters have batted .099 against him (17-for-172). He has faced 190 hitters in his own league. Just 34 have reached base.

• Then there are all the strikeouts. Do you realize this guy is piling up more than four strikeouts for every hit he allows (4.24, to be precise)? Once again, nobody has ever done that in a year in which he pitched this many innings. Only Gagne in 2003 (3.7) and Billy Wagner in 1999 (3.5) have even approached it.

• Bet you didn't know that Chapman has more strikeouts than the Opening Day starters for 11 teams … or that he has struck out more hitters than two pitchers who made the All-Star team (Matt Harrison, Wade Miley), as well as Vogelsong … or that he would lead four teams in strikeouts (A's, Royals, Blue Jays, Rockies).

• Ah, here's the clincher: I hear lots of people refer to Jered Weaver as the favorite for the American League Cy Young Award. But guess what? Chapman has racked up exactly as many strikeouts this season as Weaver has -- in 81 fewer innings.

Wow. What makes all this especially incredible is that everybody knows what's coming. And it's still hopeless.

"The guy throws fastballs," Schumaker said. "That's pretty much it. I mean, he mixes in sliders every once in a while, but when you're up there, you're getting his fastball. Everyone knows it. And not only are they not hitting it, they're not even putting it in play."

Want to talk domination? This guy has thrown 964 pitches this year. Only 9.9 percent of them (95) have been put in play. You have got to be kidding.

Yet I wouldn't bet my lunch money that Chapman is going to win this award. You know why? Because the Cy Young has turned into a starting pitcher's award, almost without exception. One reliever (Gagne) has won it in the past 20 years.

A couple of years ago, I made a proposal to the Baseball Writers' Association of America that we add a new award to honor the best relief pitcher in each league. Not because I think relief pitchers are a bunch of great dudes with cool beards and funny quotes who need to fill up their trophy cases. It's because over the past two decades, the writers have pretty much decided not to vote for them. For anything.

Cy Young. MVP. Senator. Congressman. ESPY Award. Anything.

It's gotten so absurd that the great Mariano Rivera, one of the most dominating, difference-making players of modern times, has never won any of our awards. He has never even come close. How incomprehensible is that?

If we couldn't find an award that even a relief pitcher as great as Rivera could win, it seemed it was about time to invent one. But that proposal was voted down, naturally.

And you know what I was told by the folks who opposed it?

That if I thought a relief pitcher was so good, so dominant, that he deserved the Cy Young Award, then just vote for him.

You know what? I thought that was such great advice that I'm now advising voters everywhere to do exactly that.

Aroldis Chapman Cy Young fever. Catch it. Please.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 09:19 AM
LOL no. Someone who pitches 70-80 innings in a season will not get it over someone who goes out and pitches 200+, seeing the same batters multiple times in the same game. Dickey is the best if the voting was today; Kershaw will be the best at the end of September.

Tyler44
08-14-2012, 09:25 AM
LOL no. Someone who pitches 70-80 innings in a season will not get it over someone who goes out and pitches 200+, seeing the same batters multiple times in the same game. Dickey is the best if the voting was today; Kershaw will be the best at the end of September.

Im not saying he will, its definitely become a starting pitcher only award. But if it awards the most dominant pitcher, who has been more dominant than Chapman?


Dickey has had a great season and will probably win it, but statistically has he really had a better season than Chapman? Not the numbers I am seeing at least. Honestly one can easily argue that Johnny Cueto has had a season as good or better than Dickey, and you hardly hear about Cueto in the discussion. Great American Ballpark maybe the toughest stadium to pitch in, in the MLB.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 09:36 AM
Im not saying he will, its definitely become a starting pitcher only award. But if it awards the most dominant pitcher, who has been more dominant than Chapman?


Dickey has had a great season and will probably win it, but statistically has he really had a better season than Chapman? Not the numbers I am seeing at least. Honestly one can easily argue that Johnny Cueto has had a season as good or better than Dickey, and you hardly hear about Cueto in the discussion. Great American Ballpark maybe the toughest stadium to pitch in, in the MLB.

No he hasn't been more dominant, because he isn't pitching anywhere near the innings. If you wanted to take innings pitched out of the equation, a reliever would win the Cy Young every year. Kimbrel would have won it last year with a 2.10 ERA and 15 K/9. Kershaw wouldn't have had a chance against those numbers. Luckily, most voters know that it's easier to be a relief pitcher because the workload is much less, you can put more into your pitches, and you never have to worry about batters making adjustments the second, third, and sometimes 4th time around. If the Dodgers were stupid, they'd make Kershaw a reliever and his numbers would blow Chapman's out of the water.

sups31
08-14-2012, 09:42 AM
lol, just no.

Murph0408
08-14-2012, 10:15 AM
no, if you ask me the cy young award should rarely if ever go to a reliever. as already stated in this thread there are plenty of guys who have dominant seasons of 50-80 innings, if we're going to start weighing their performance as equal to a starter going 200+ i think it'd be a mistake. eric gagne won it in '03 and i was skeptical then, i'm even more skeptical of giving it to chapman

Big_Spaz
08-14-2012, 10:20 AM
Chapman and Kimbrel have been coming up a lot lately in this conversation (NL Cy Young) but I have to agree with others, it should be Kershaw, Dickey or maybe even Hamels.





-Spaz

Legsneedwork
08-14-2012, 10:26 AM
As a Reds fan, I'd love to see it happen. That said, it's minute at best even if he doesn't give up another run, and you can forget about it if he has another rough patch like went through during IL play. But if the guy gets his ERA under 1 and strikes out 150+ he has to at least be considered.

brb winning Cy Young as reliever in 2012 and starter in 2013

Big_Pete1000
08-14-2012, 10:29 AM
If the award is supposed to go to most dominating pitcher than it is easily chapman.

If there are certain qualifications like so many starts or innings than obviously he doesn't get it.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 10:36 AM
If the award is supposed to go to most dominating pitcher than it is easily chapman.


Do you think Kimbrel should have gotten it over Kershaw last year then?

Big_Pete1000
08-14-2012, 10:56 AM
Do you think Kimbrel should have gotten it over Kershaw last year then?

Yea you can make that case.

I see both sides of it. Everybody on this board acts like being a reliever is so easy. If it was so easy everybody would be closing and people like Mariano Rivera would be on every team instead a once a decade player. If being a relief pitcher was so easy than no team would score again as soon as the starting pitcher comes out. Closers and relievers in general usually have short shelf lives. Closing pitchers remind me of RB in the NFL. They are sometimes asked to pitched a few days in a row and then might take a week off. Puts a lot of stress on the arm/shoulder to have it going non-stop and then no action and then start back up again. Its not a once every five games routine with time to rest sometimes.

LostOne287
08-14-2012, 11:34 AM
No he hasn't been more dominant, because he isn't pitching anywhere near the innings. If you wanted to take innings pitched out of the equation, a reliever would win the Cy Young every year. Kimbrel would have won it last year with a 2.10 ERA and 15 K/9. Kershaw wouldn't have had a chance against those numbers. Luckily, most voters know that it's easier to be a relief pitcher because the workload is much less, you can put more into your pitches, and you never have to worry about batters making adjustments the second, third, and sometimes 4th time around. If the Dodgers were stupid, they'd make Kershaw a reliever and his numbers would blow Chapman's out of the water.

Loony pls. Chapman has .9 less WAR than Dickey and Cueto despite throwing 100 less innings. That is dominance on another level.

ivegotbigballs
08-14-2012, 11:40 AM
I've been a huge Reds fan my whole life, however I don't think that Chapman should win it. I've never believed in closers winning the Cy Young, and was strongly opposed when Gagne won it. However, I do believe that Chapman is on pace to have a better year than Gagne did (asides from his gaudy save numbers).

With that being said, I think Cueto should win.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 11:42 AM
Yea you can make that case.

I see both sides of it. Everybody on this board acts like being a reliever is so easy. If it was so easy everybody would be closing and people like Mariano Rivera would be on every team instead a once a decade player. If being a relief pitcher was so easy than no team would score again as soon as the starting pitcher comes out. Closers and relievers in general usually have short shelf lives. Closing pitchers remind me of RB in the NFL. They are sometimes asked to pitched a few days in a row and then might take a week off. Puts a lot of stress on the arm/shoulder to have it going non-stop and then no action and then start back up again. Its not a once every five games routine with time to rest sometimes.

There are plenty of pitchers in MLB right now who could be a more dominant closer than Rivera was. The thing is, when pitchers are that good, teams want to maximize the number of innings they get out of them. So they aren't in the bullpen.


Loony pls. Chapman has .9 less WAR than Dickey and Cueto

Yup.

LostOne287
08-14-2012, 11:52 AM
There are plenty of pitchers in MLB right now who could be a more dominant closer than Rivera was. The thing is, when pitchers are that good, teams want to maximize the number of innings they get out of them. So they aren't in the bullpen.



Yup.

Lol strong response when you have nothing to say back. Why don't we just give the Cy Young to whoever has the most innings at the end of the year? I mean, apparently amount of innings is the deal breaker so whoever racks up the most should get the CY clearly.

Tyler44
08-14-2012, 12:11 PM
There are plenty of pitchers in MLB right now who could be a more dominant closer than Rivera was. The thing is, when pitchers are that good, teams want to maximize the number of innings they get out of them. So they aren't in the bullpen.
.


Completely disagree. Most starters would get eaten alive as a closer. Its an entirely different world, situation and mentality. You simply cannot pitch the same way in the most stressful and spotlit portion of the game compared to the middle of the 3rd inning. The same argument can be made that most relievers/closers would be bad starters for those same reasons.

If it comes down to Dickey and Cueto, even though I am a Reds fan, Cueto wins it. Strasburg getting shutdown takes him out of the conversation sadly as well. But there simply has not been a more dominant player on the mound this season that Chapman. You cant deny the numbers and assuming he finishes out strong he will have one of the best seasons a reliever has ever had. You cant just act like that doesn't matter.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 12:13 PM
Lol strong response when you have nothing to say back. Why don't we just give the Cy Young to whoever has the most innings at the end of the year? I mean, apparently amount of innings is the deal breaker so whoever racks up the most should get the CY clearly.

I've already given my argument several times in this thread, but if you need me to direct it specifically to you then fine, I'll do it one more time. Obviously it's a combination of workload and per inning rate stats. A guy who pitches 250 innings with an ERA (or FIP depending on the WAR calculation) of 4 isn't going to win it, and neither is a guy who pitches 20 innings with an ERA/FIP of 0.5. Neither of those guys will top the WAR leaderboards either. The whole point of WAR is to measure total value, so if you're going to center your argument around WAR you should realize that you don't have an argument unless Chapman leads the league in it. Don't try and handwave it into a rate stat, because that's not what it is.

WheyneNewton
08-14-2012, 12:13 PM
CY to a relief pitcher who throws 70 innings is ridiculous.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 12:15 PM
Completely disagree. Most starters would get eaten alive as a closer. Its an entirely different world, situation and mentality. You simply cannot pitch the same way in the most stressful and spotlit portion of the game compared to the middle of the 3rd inning. The same argument can be made that most relievers/closers would be bad starters for those same reasons.

Yeah there's never any pressure on starters :rolleyes:.

cor030
08-14-2012, 12:17 PM
LOL no. Someone who pitches 70-80 innings in a season will not get it over someone who goes out and pitches 200+, seeing the same batters multiple times in the same game. Dickey is the best if the voting was today; Kershaw will be the best at the end of September.

This. This this this this this.


Loony pls. Chapman has .9 less WAR than Dickey and Cueto despite throwing 100 less innings. That is dominance on another level.

Is WAR really the end all of stats? If so Jordan Zimmermann is MUCH better than Strasburg and Kershaw which we all know is not true.

Sorry, relievers should not get CY Young's unless literally every starter is just mediocre. At the end of the year there will be a handful of great pitchers(Kershaw who will prob win, Strasburg, Dickey, Zimmermann, Cueto, etc..) that dominated during the year and didn't just come in and pitch an inning.

AriGhold
08-14-2012, 12:22 PM
LOL no. Someone who pitches 70-80 innings in a season will not get it over someone who goes out and pitches 200+, seeing the same batters multiple times in the same game. Dickey is the best if the voting was today; Kershaw will be the best at the end of September.

your argument last year was that verlander shouldn't win the MVP award because he didn't play as many innings as bautista did. the voters didn't agree with you. now you are saying that chapman shouldn't win the cy young because he hasn't pitched as many innings as starters? i can't say i'm surprised. while you did have a point about the MVP, nothing mentions value in the cy young. it is given to the most dominant and best pitcher for the season. if that pitcher happens to be a reliever, so be it.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 12:27 PM
your argument last year was that verlander shouldn't win the MVP award because he didn't play as many innings as bautista did. the voters didn't agree with you. now you are saying that chapman shouldn't win the cy young because he hasn't pitched as many innings as starters? i can't say i'm surprised. while you did have a point about the MVP, nothing mentions value in the cy young. it is given to the most dominant and best pitcher for the season. if that pitcher happens to be a reliever, so be it.

Actually, that wasn't my argument at all. I'm firmly on the side that starting pitchers should be considered for MVP unless they want to officially make it a position-player only award. Verlander just flat out wasn't as good as Bautista, Ellsbury, or probably even Cabrera on his own team.

And again I'll say that if you want to ignore workload and give the Cy Young to the most dominant pitcher based on rate stats (which is the full argument for Chapman), then you'll be giving it to a reliever every single season.

AriGhold
08-14-2012, 12:31 PM
are there advanced stats for determining if a pitcher or position player is better?

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 12:34 PM
are there advanced stats for determining if a pitcher or position player is better?

Well according to fWAR, Ellsbury, Bautista, Pedroia, Kinsler, Cabrera and Sabathia all beat out Verlander.

LostOne287
08-14-2012, 12:38 PM
And again I'll say that if you want to ignore workload and give the Cy Young to the most dominant pitcher based on rate stats (which is the full argument for Chapman), then you'll be giving it to a reliever every single season.

Wrong. You keep bringing up Kimbrel but his era was barely even under Kershaw's last year. His season was nowhere near what Chapman is doing. I said this in the other thread, Chapman is having one of greatest seasons in history reliever or not. IF there was a starter having a similar season I would be all for them getting the award. But there clearly isn't.

F.A.M.E.
08-14-2012, 12:39 PM
Def my pic for Cy Young.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 12:45 PM
Wrong. You keep bringing up Kimbrel but his era was barely even under Kershaw's last year. His season was nowhere near what Chapman is doing. I said this in the other thread, Chapman is having one of greatest seasons in history reliever or not. IF there was a starter having a similar season I would be all for them getting the award. But there clearly isn't.

No, he's having one of the greatest seasons in history for a reliever. Giving him the award would be like giving Janikowski the NFL MVP if he goes out and breaks a ton of records this year and Rodgers/Brady only throw for 40 TDs and a 105 rating.

JoshSelbyfor3
08-14-2012, 12:47 PM
Dude had like 2 bad weeks in June. Aside from that he hasn't even allowed an earned run. Chapman is nearing GOAT status, srs.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 12:57 PM
Wrong. You keep bringing up Kimbrel but his era was barely even under Kershaw's last year. His season was nowhere near what Chapman is doing. I said this in the other thread, Chapman is having one of greatest seasons in history reliever or not. IF there was a starter having a similar season I would be all for them getting the award. But there clearly isn't.

For that matter, why are you now using ERA as your qualifier? Funny how when you brought up WAR before you use the one from fangraphs that is derived from FIP, in which Kimbrel slaughtered Kershaw last year. You want to use ERA; that's fine. Let's look at the WAR leaderboard for the one derived from ERA this year. Chapman's a long way from the top. You can't have it both ways.



WAR for Pitchers
1. Cueto (CIN) 5.3
2. Zimmermann (WSN) 4.4
3. Dickey (NYM) 3.9
4. Hamels (PHI) 3.7
5. Lohse (STL) 3.5
6. Kershaw (LAD) 3.4
7. Dempster (CHC) 3.2
8. Chapman (CIN) 3.1
9. Strasburg (WSN) 3.0
Miley (ARI) 3.0

joewtugwell
08-14-2012, 01:00 PM
Only way chapman (or any other reliever) gets it is if there isn't a 20 game winner.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 01:02 PM
Only way chapman (or any other reliever) gets it is if there isn't a 20 game winner.

Now we're really getting into advanced stats.

LostOne287
08-14-2012, 01:07 PM
For that matter, why are you now using ERA as your qualifier? Funny how when you brought up WAR before you use the one from fangraphs that is derived from FIP, in which Kimbrel slaughtered Kershaw last year. You want to use ERA; that's fine. Let's look at the WAR leaderboard for the one derived from ERA this year. Chapman's a long way from the top. You can't have it both ways.

I used era because that was the only thing you were using to even put Kimbrel in the discussion. His WAR was less than half of Kershaw's and the same as Chapman's with still a month and a half to play. Kimbrel was nowhere near a CY contender last year so comparing him to Chapman this year is ridiculous. The seasons are in no way comparable.

Greg1983
08-14-2012, 01:19 PM
I used era because that was the only thing you were using to even put Kimbrel in the discussion. His WAR was less than half of Kershaw's and the same as Chapman's with still a month and a half to play. Kimbrel was nowhere near a CY contender last year so comparing him to Chapman this year is ridiculous. The seasons are in no way comparable.

No, it's not the only thing. Kimbrel had a better ERA, K/9, FIP, xFIP, and if I want to extrapolate his WAR to a rate stat like you seem to love to do he dominated Kershaw in that too. I never said his season was as good as Chapman's 2012. I said if you want to give Chapman the award based on rate stats, then you have to do the same for every other reliever. If you don't want to do that, then you have to come up with some measure of combining rate stats with workload. There's a few different WAR rankings out there that do just that, and they rank Chapman 11th and 8th. So unless you want to now tell me the flaws in those statistics, you're just telling a nice story.

joewtugwell
08-14-2012, 01:25 PM
Now we're really getting into advanced stats.
lol no need to over-analyze quite yet

cor030
08-14-2012, 01:50 PM
Don't forget that Kimbrel stumbled in September of last year when the Braves collapsed. His stats were MUCH better at this point in the year last year, then his ERA fell almost half a run in the month of September.

So yeah. I want to see Chapman keep doing this into September.. but being honest he could keep this up and get better and I still wouldn't endorse a reliever winning CY Young.

AmazinJason
08-14-2012, 01:56 PM
Hells no Chapman shouldn't win it. A reliever should never win it unless they are pitching like 2 innings every other game and getting like 150+ innings of work. I guess if all the starters are absolute sh*t, say the best starter has an ERA of like 3.40 while being utterly unimpressive while Chapman is putting up the numbers he is putting up right now, then I'd give the nod to a reliever. But this season? Hells no. Too many quality starters: Zimmerman, Dickey, Cueto, Kershaw, Hamels, Cain, etc.

I'm a Dodgers fan and I don't think Gagne deserved it when he won it.

19jeff83
08-14-2012, 03:22 PM
Johnny Cueto for Cy Young Award Winner!!!!!

JM2412
08-14-2012, 04:34 PM
CY to a relief pitcher who throws 70 innings is ridiculous./thread.

SP >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> RP

taxe91
08-14-2012, 04:37 PM
pretty good article with some cool stats, but I think a guy like Dickey who literally wins games singlehandedly (the two 1-hitters) and a guy who I expect to lead his teams to the playoffs (Kershaw) will deserve it more, by September

Tyler44
08-15-2012, 07:01 PM
Dickey sure am looking Cy Young caliber tonight.

6ip
10 hits
5 ER

Getting out dueled by Mike Leake.


Ouch!

AmazinJason
08-15-2012, 07:10 PM
Dickey sure am looking Cy Young caliber tonight.

6ip
10 hits
5 ER

Getting out dueled by Mike Leake.


Ouch!

One by one, the pitchers who have a better ERA than Kershaw are starting to suck. At this rate, all Kershaw really needs to do is maintain his ERA and he'll probably have the lowest ERA by the end of the season.

Tyler44
08-15-2012, 08:00 PM
One by one, the pitchers who have a better ERA than Kershaw are starting to suck. At this rate, all Kershaw really needs to do is maintain his ERA and he'll probably have the lowest ERA by the end of the season.

Mets stadium is one of the worst stadiums offensively in the league. He has that luxury of a deep wall that gives up rate homers. He comes to GABP, and learns how hard it is to pitch here.

Todd Frazier hit a 476ft bomb to center, keeps making his case for NL ROTY.

Forumite
08-15-2012, 08:09 PM
If it went to a reliever it should be Kimbrel, not Chapman.

There are at least 3 starters that deserve it though.