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  1. #1
    i eat babies for protein. DieHollywoodDie's Avatar
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    Chances of Becoming a Professional Athlete

    ARE YOU AWARE:
    there are only ~17,000 professional athletes in the United States and with a total census population of ~301,139,947.

    thus you have a .0000565/1 chance of becoming a professional athlete.

    WHAT THIS MEANS:
    you have a .00565% chance of becoming a professional athlete. chances are you will not become one, you will not be paid anything for your sport, you will not even make the minors...so stop aiming for such high goals or comparing yourself to the NFL, MLB, NHL, NBA, etc. If you aim for such things you can pretty much only be crushed. Instead remember: it's about fun and your health.

    I play water polo and there really is no professional league (at least in the USA, there is a good paying one in Europe but no one cares) thus players are playing in general just for the love of the sport. That's why I love water polo. Too many football players, etc. think they can make the NFL and don't realize there are only 32 teams.
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  2. #2
    Registered User Tyro's Avatar
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    That is bull**** in my opinion, there is way to many factors involved when you compare the people its stupid becosue maybe you compared to 10000000 people and all of them are disabled and will never compete in such events (not including paralimpics) this will meen you have a 100% chance of making it between those people. Another solution go play in a different country, good pay and so on. Anyways i would still play a sport becouse its the best one ever.
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  3. #3
    Registered User killermony's Avatar
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    i play because i love football. if i make it to the nfl awsome but i know that i really have almost no chance, but i am almost certain i can make it and play at the college level probably not for D1 but maybe D2 and definitly D3. i don't care what level i play at i just have fun playing. size is really the only thing that would stop me from playing NFL because i have the speed and continue to get stronger. i can probably play semi pro one day or canadian. does not matter i just love playing football, and probably one day coach.
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  4. #4
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    id rather coach in the NFL (or Div-1) than play ....
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  5. #5
    Do Work Quarter Nelson's Avatar
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    Your calculations are way off. You're only calculating the chance of any random person in the U.S. is a professional athlete at the present moment. That doesn't take into account living persons that are future or past pro athletes.

    So let's calculate something else. Chance that someone has been involved in pro sports in their life time.

    Firstly, lets assume the average career is 4 years (because of injuries and lack of talent, most don't have long careers). If the average life expectancy is 78 years, that means they spend 5.12% of their life as a pro athlete. Meaning you're not factoring the 94.88% of people that are past or future pro athletes. Since 100/5.12 = 19.53, that's the number you need to multiply your calculation by.

    So .00565% x 19.53 = .1103%, which is roughly 1/900. That's how many people will be pro athletes in their life time.

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  6. #6
    Registered User k-mac's Avatar
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    There are a few guys who have played in the minor pro basketball leagues, d-1 colleges, and professionally overseas (offseason) who go to my gym. i know what it takes, but even then they are extremely fortunate. but having that attitude does not get you far. try your hardest, dont give up, what happens, happens. you tried your best...

    the numbers are biased in that statement as well... not everyone plays sports...
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  7. #7
    Banned FBDEDICATED83_gone's Avatar
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    oh quick thing too, you know how many of those athletes were "realistically" told that they wouldnt make it either....just wanted to point out
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  8. #8
    Registered User WRbigbody's Avatar
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    meh... just a number
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  9. #9
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    You can't put a percentage on a sport. That pretty much means that I can bust my ass 6 hours a day everyday, and a guy who doesn't do **** has the same chance as me. you can only put percentage on lottery's cause thats totally random, but the more tickets you buy the higher chance you have, sort of the the same thing for athletes the more you practice they higher chance you have.

    Professional athletes busted there ass off when they were kids, They weren't the kids who would go to party's, smoke, and drink. They were the ones who would practice there sport for hours every day.


    I'm 15, I love basketball, I would love to make it to the nba; I bust my ass off every single day. I have a better chance of getting shot then making it, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna give up on the sport I love.

    I laugh at all these kids in my school who play sports, they think they can goto party's, drink all they want, go chill at the mall, etc., and still think they can make it to the professional level.

    Your never gonna make it to the professional level without sacrifices.

    Just my two cents.
    Last edited by girlpwner; 07-26-2007 at 07:45 PM.
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  10. #10
    Registered User dcs080's Avatar
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    are you aware that the 1 person has to be SOMEBODY?
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  11. #11
    Registered User NpWrestling's Avatar
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    What you need to calculate in is the people that dont play sports, and then theres the people that dont play YOUR sport, and then you have old people, fathers with kids, mothers, kids, disabled, so your calculations are way off
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  12. #12
    Aaron watchandsee23's Avatar
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    If everyone payed attention to teh odds there would be no pro sports....
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  13. #13
    Registered User dcs080's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by DieHollywoodDie View Post
    Too many football players, etc. think they can make the NFL and don't realize there are only 32 teams.


    this makes for a better overall sport and far better competition....therefore leading to a level of popularity on a whole other planet than that of basically any other sport

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  14. #14
    Registered User SDOptimist's Avatar
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    ya those are just numbers which mean nothing, you arent a part of those stats, the people next to you arent a part of those stats, and every single person is different, even when people are told that there is a 99.9% chance of failure, they suceed. there are ALWAY exceptions to the rules. just because that thing said that you have a .0000565/1 chance of becoming a pro athlete, thats not your probability of making it, those are just numbers of people who are pro compared to NOT, you not a part of that, your havent gotten to the point where you can be a pro or not. Your probability of becoming pro is what you make it. if you follow those numbers, then you already lossed. if you fallow statistics or probabilities of anything you do in life then you failed before you even started. like i said, THE PROBABILITY OF YOU GOING PRO IS WHAT YOU MAKE IT.
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  15. #15
    Registered User wdcf's Avatar
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    hmm well Micheal Jordan didnt make his frosh bball team, The varsity coach when I was a freshman said I would never be good enough for varsity football
    Presently I am A division 1 football player, NFL? NO CFL probably.

    Never listen to people who say **** like that, use it as inspiration to be the best you can be to put yourself in that elite category.
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  16. #16
    i eat babies for protein. DieHollywoodDie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by girlpwner View Post
    You can't put a percentage on a sport. That pretty much means that I can bust my ass 6 hours a day everyday, and a guy who doesn't do **** has the same chance as me. Professional athletes busted there ass off when they were kids, They weren't the kids who would go to party's, smoke, and drink. They were the ones who would practice there sport for hours every day.

    **I laugh at all these kids in my school who play sports, they think they can goto party's, drink all they want, go chill at the mall, etc., and still think they can make it to the professional level.**
    This right here is my biggest peave with "dreamers" as I refer to them. YOU ARE WRONG. There are plenty of people (as you will notice in life) who don't have to work at all and will be as good, if not far better than you. In fact, many Division I athletes didn't need to work hard at all. Let's be honest: most professional athletes are there because of their natural athletic ability, not just because they "tried hard". There are hundreds of thousands of people who "try hard" and "work their asses off" but will NEVER get even close to professional athletics. There are people who will be far better than you that have never lifted weights while you spend 6 hours a day running, jumping, and lifting. There are kids who will eat pizza and get high on the weekends while you work your ass off only to stomp you into the ground. Stop laughing, chances are they are better than you, or there is someone that IS better than you doing similar stuff.

    Originally Posted by killermony View Post
    i don't care what level i play at i just have fun playing
    which is the exact attitude i am recommending.

    Originally Posted by datakeover8389 View Post
    oh quick thing too, you know how many of those athletes were "realistically" told that they wouldnt make it either....just wanted to point out
    true, however one big point is: nearly every single one of those athletes absolutely dominated at the high school level, even if they were on an awful team. to be honest, by age 17 you will know if you have a chance in hell of becoming a professional athlete. in addition, you are forgetting that while they MAY have overcome, statistically there are thousands of others who DIDNT.

    Originally Posted by k-mac View Post
    i know what it takes, but even then they are extremely fortunate. but having that attitude does not get you far. try your hardest, dont give up, what happens, happens. you tried your best...the numbers are biased in that statement as well... not everyone plays sports...
    you are overlooking the point. statistically you are still pretty screwed even with more accurate numbers. in addiiton you are overlooking my message: enjoy your sport and don't freak out too much or dedicate your entire life to it...at some point during our lives we realize that not everyone is going to be a rock star or a pro athlete or a billionaire etc.

    Originally Posted by Quarter Nelson View Post
    Your calculations are way off. You're only calculating the chance of any random person in the U.S. is a professional athlete at the present moment. That doesn't take into account living persons that are future or past pro athletes. Firstly, lets assume the average career is 4 years (because of injuries and lack of talent, most don't have long careers). If the average life expectancy is 78 years, that means they spend 5.12% of their life as a pro athlete. Meaning you're not factoring the 94.88% of people that are past or future pro athletes. Since 100/5.12 = 19.53, that's the number you need to multiply your calculation by.

    So .00565% x 19.53 = .1103%, which is roughly 1/900. That's how many people will be pro athletes in their life time.
    ok, if you really want to get accurate numbers it would in fact be far less. there are about 25,000 people in China who are professional athletes...whereas their population is nearly 1 billion. In addition in real athletics you are competing against people overseas and also America has a relatively high # of pro athletes. Thus the number realistically is even smaller than I predicted probably (no accurate statistics on this, just speculation) although you are certainly correct in your calculations. Forget trying to prove me wrong through math, you're overlooking the bigger picture.
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  17. #17
    Habeeb it KellerLB's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Quarter Nelson View Post
    Your calculations are way off. You're only calculating the chance of any random person in the U.S. is a professional athlete at the present moment. That doesn't take into account living persons that are future or past pro athletes.

    So let's calculate something else. Chance that someone has been involved in pro sports in their life time.

    Firstly, lets assume the average career is 4 years (because of injuries and lack of talent, most don't have long careers). If the average life expectancy is 78 years, that means they spend 5.12% of their life as a pro athlete. Meaning you're not factoring the 94.88% of people that are past or future pro athletes. Since 100/5.12 = 19.53, that's the number you need to multiply your calculation by.

    So .00565% x 19.53 = .1103%, which is roughly 1/900. That's how many people will be pro athletes in their life time.

    k?
    Well basically the only way to do it is 1 out of how ever many people have the same goal of your sport I know I won't play NFL... I dunno if I'll play College because I have a different goal long-term but hey things change i got 3 years (yeah extra year) of high school left
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    The odds of any one individual becomming a pro athlete next year can be calculated as follows:
    Number of pro positions which will be offered next year / Number of athletes competing for those positions.

    Taking the population of the whole of the US as the denominator will give you a rediculously small percentage because it takes into account non-athletes. But a young athlete hoping to go pro is not competing with the entire population of the US- they are not competing with bed-ridden old men, or babies who can't yet walk. In fact the average athlete hoping to go pro is not competing with anyone bar other athletes.

    I think the exercise is a little pointless though, becomming a professional athlete is not a matter of pot luck, it's not a matter of percentage chance - it's a matter of who puts in the work day after day, month after month, year after year. Coaches don't draw a lottery of the entire US population when looking for a new tallent- they look for athletes already playing the sport at a lower level who show enough talent and promise to compete at the next grade.

    Even if the odds are low, you're better off aiming ****ing high than aiming low. If you aim ****ing high and miss you are at least going to go pretty high. If you aim low the best you will do is hit your bullseye.
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    I think the point of the original post, and it's a valid point, is that nobody with half a brain should put all their stock into becoming a pro athlete. You'd better be able to do something other than throw a football, or you're likely to be pumping gas for a living.
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    Registered User LC83's Avatar
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    I would like to see a number calculated off of a better pool of players. I don't care about how many high school football players make it the to the NFL. How about how many HS starters make it to the NFL who have college potential or something more indicative of future success. Adding the slow, fat, short, 3rd stringers to that statistic really skews the actual percent. If you are Calvin Johnson or even some lesser NFL backup player do you think that this statistic really apply to you. NO!!!
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    The thread starter's stats are poorly calculated and not very accurate. However, I agree with his point, atleast for the most part. It is unlikely that many people will end up as pro athletes. Even if you make it pro, your chances of success are low. Sure you could play Arena Football or Minor Minor League Baseball or play overseas, but the guys that make the millions are few and far. I don't discourage dreaming, but be prepared to give up your dream eventually and get a different job as there is a good chance you'll have to if you want to make a living. Even guys who get drafted into the NBA get cut before they play a game. And trust me, playing in Europe is no joy ride for a lot of players.
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    Out of people I know I could say like:

    3 CFL
    4-5 NHL
    1-2 MLB
    7-8 (Professional Volleyball???)
    2 Soccer

    My school is the best volleyball team in the province we've won OFSAA (AAAA Provincials) 4 times in a row and in the last 4 years lost like 2-3 games I think...

    And im in canada so the next is hockey and I know like 2 guys who play competitive baseball and one is the best pitcher in ontario
    Legalize it and I will advertise it!
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    You simply cannot put a percentage on your chances of succeeding at a sport. It comes down to your genetics (height, weight, fast twitch vs slow twitch muscle fiber ratio, metabolism, etc) and dedication.

    If you are young and have a good amount of talent, then shoot for the stars. The only advice I can provide is that no matter how hard you work at your sport, never let your education suffer. You will always be able to get a job with your brain, but the same cannot be said about a sport. You could suffer a freak accident, break a bone, tear a rotator cuff, etc...

    On a side note, my friend from college used to play in a Montgomery County youth basketball league when he was an adolescent. Coincidentally, Carmelo Anthony played in the league and he used to average 40 to 50 points a game in 70 pt games amongst his peers. Sometimes you really are just better than everyone you play against.

    Same could be said about Lebron in high school.
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    Neg This Bellend.
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    We all on here play for the love of the game. And where busting are humps trying to be the best we can and if dont make it aw well at leat we gave it our best. LIke MJ said " I can accept failure i cannot acept not trying" So if i tried my best at my dream and failed at least i know i gave it my all.
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    Originally Posted by girlpwner View Post
    You can't put a percentage on a sport. That pretty much means that I can bust my ass 6 hours a day everyday, and a guy who doesn't do **** has the same chance as me. you can only put percentage on lottery's cause thats totally random, but the more tickets you buy the higher chance you have, sort of the the same thing for athletes the more you practice they higher chance you have.

    Professional athletes busted there ass off when they were kids, They weren't the kids who would go to party's, smoke, and drink. They were the ones who would practice there sport for hours every day.


    I'm 15, I love basketball, I would love to make it to the nba; I bust my ass off every single day. I have a better chance of getting shot then making it, but that doesn't mean I'm gonna give up on the sport I love.

    I laugh at all these kids in my school who play sports, they think they can goto party's, drink all they want, go chill at the mall, etc., and still think they can make it to the professional level.

    Your never gonna make it to the professional level without sacrifices.

    Just my two cents.
    exactly. I love hockey and like many, I'd like to make it one day to the nhl. At least, if I don't make it, I'll know I tried my best and that I shouldn't regret it. I also know people that go and get drunk every single weekend and still think they can make it to the pros. They eat fast food almost 4 times a week. If you train hard and truly believe in yourself, you will make it!
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    ADDITIONALLY, ball buster OP, many of us get $$ for college from football...which obviously isn't pro ball but it helps us pursue our careers with more financial help....f off if you want to bring your negative attitude to the rest of us
    Bulking is fun
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    i eat babies for protein. DieHollywoodDie's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by jonebone View Post
    You simply cannot put a percentage on your chances of succeeding at a sport. It comes down to your genetics (height, weight, fast twitch vs slow twitch muscle fiber ratio, metabolism, etc) and dedication.

    If you are young and have a good amount of talent, then shoot for the stars. The only advice I can provide is that no matter how hard you work at your sport, never let your education suffer. You will always be able to get a job with your brain, but the same cannot be said about a sport. You could suffer a freak accident, break a bone, tear a rotator cuff, etc...

    On a side note, my friend from college used to play in a Montgomery County youth basketball league when he was an adolescent. Coincidentally, Carmelo Anthony played in the league and he used to average 40 to 50 points a game in 70 pt games amongst his peers. Sometimes you really are just better than everyone you play against.

    Same could be said about Lebron in high school.
    you just keep supporting my point: if you are going pro, you most likely will know it before college.
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  29. #29
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    What was the point of this thread anyway?
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    You gave the chances out of everyone in America to make it as a pro.

    You should subtract all the people in the world that don't want to be an athlete and then only use the people that bust their ass and will give whatever it takes and have the right body to do it and the odds will be a lot higher than what you gave us.
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