New Home prices down 20% from peak. Falling faster than 2008

[OliverHeldens]

With 7% rates projected to stick around for another few years, this doesn't show any signs of stopping.

[tripod29]

*yawn*

[twovalvekid]

Just like this incoming market dump?

https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=185094433

[OliverHeldens]

Just like this incoming market dump?

https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=185094433

Look at the chart. It's happening in real time.

[Titansfan08]

Just like Bitcoin dumping going to 5k

https://forum.bodybuilding.com/showt...hp?t=184809033

[LuigiMiami631]

Just like kim kardashian taking a dump.

[twovalvekid]

Look at the chart. It's happening in real time.

Looks like they peaked and are now pulling back to a more reasonable level to what they should be (like literally everything does). Just look at the growth slope of what would be a potential trend line prior to the spike on the graph you posted. Looks like a pullback to something along 375k is at least reasonable.

Also lol @ technical analysis about rates.

[Vhagar]

Oh no

All those people that bought average homes pre Covid sitting there with $100k in equity still are definitely panicking

Lmao

[xxAchillesxx]

Jesus. OP taking L's left and right

[OliverHeldens]

Looks like they peaked and are now pulling back to a more reasonable level to what they should be (like literally everything does). Just look at the growth slope of what would be a potential trend line prior to the spike on the graph you posted. Looks like a pullback to something along 375k is at least reasonable.

Also lol @ technical analysis about rates.

This would make sense if they were showing signs of support. Based on the chart, they're in freefall and not stopping.

Housing doesn't crash overnight like stocks do. It's usually a 3-5 year process. Unless rates drop, this will continue on its current path.

[twovalvekid]

Oh no

All those people that bought average homes pre Covid sitting there with $100k in equity still are definitely panicking

Lmao

I think they'll resist a continued trend down. bought my latest house in 2021 when rates were 2.99%. Things have continued to go up from there because of all the money on the sidelines and still general home shortage. As prices and rates creep back down in the foreseeable future, things will become more "affordable" again. So the demand isnt really doing to dump hard. MHO.

[twovalvekid]

This would make sense if they were showing signs of support. Based on the chart, they're in freefall and not stopping.

Housing doesn't crash overnight like stocks do. It's usually a 3-5 year process. Unless rates drop, this will continue on its current path.

I mean if you want to go full retard and do nothing but look at a singular chart and take nothing else into consideration, be my guest.

[ithappenss]

this model of "capitalism" has been exaushted thats why they have a plan for 2030. no point in doing anything major till then

[WoofieNugget]

Condo listings in Toronto went up 37% in February and are up 48% year over year. Lots of people trying to dump investment properties up here but they are all hanging onto the idea that people will pay what they want.

[ThatGuy950]

This would make sense if they were showing signs of support. Based on the chart, they're in freefall and not stopping.

Housing doesn't crash overnight like stocks do. It's usually a 3-5 year process. Unless rates drop, this will continue on its current path.

The fed is already doing sneaky QE right to the ((banks)) while keeping it off their balance sheet, although it would probably take a huge and sudden uptick in unemployment (which is already way higher than reported due to layoffs and bs numbers) for them to cut rates and then all bets are off


They’ll never stop spending though, and the treasury is sneakily fking the fed and will force them to cut rates eventually

It’s over for merica ded srs

[OliverHeldens]

I mean if you want to go full retard and do nothing but look at a singular chart and take nothing else into consideration, be my guest.

What other chart could possibly more accurately describe trends in new home prices than a chart of new home prices?!?

[twovalvekid]

What other chart could possibly more accurately describe trends in new home prices than a chart of new home prices?!?

lol.

There's a lot more out there than charts...

[Anachron]

Oh no

All those people that bought average homes pre Covid sitting there with $100k in equity still are definitely panicking

Lmao

Just LOL @ copecels srs

[OliverHeldens]

lol.

There's a lot more out there than charts...

[sabusake]

its geographically subjective, however

[twovalvekid]

You're the one who continually posts full retard financial takes and then seems surprised when i mention something like "theres more to look at than one chart." Then all you want is...another chart...

Come on bruh...maybe just unpack my previous post in your brain a little bit.

I think they'll resist a continued trend down. bought my latest house in 2021 when rates were 2.99%. Things have continued to go up from there because of all the money on the sidelines and still general home shortage. As prices and rates creep back down in the foreseeable future, things will become more "affordable" again. So the demand isnt really doing to dump hard. MHO.

But this explains your current trend of "hurr derr" finance related posts.

[OliverHeldens]

its geographically subjective, however

The cost-benefit analysis still works in some locations, so people can arbitrage. But this only works for so long.

[naich]

Funny how it costs a 401k, literally in most cases.

Great progress, let me know when its down another 20%, then it will be approaching reasonable pricing.

[OliverHeldens]

Funny how it costs a 401k, literally in most cases.

Great progress, let me know when its down another 20%, then it will be approaching reasonable pricing.

Just give it time. The real fireworks haven't even started yet.

[Sal29]

With 7% rates projected to stick around for another few years, this doesn't show any signs of stopping.

It's over for HouseCels. Image being so Cucked that your property values are in freefall and your property taxes and ither home ownership costs are skyrocketing at the same time.
RentChads win as usual with rents in frefall and wages skyrocketing at the same time.

[Destor]

its geographically subjective, however

Here’s one table by region

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/release/...85#snid=206087

I don’t know if there’s enough data in these to say much though, need to break this out as benchmark prices for certain types of properties. Like condo vs detached single family, etc

[WoofieNugget]

With 7% rates projected to stick around for another few years, this doesn't show any signs of stopping.

Still gobsmacked that the average price is only 400k. In Canada overall it's over 700k and in big cities like Toronto it's well over a million.

[Sal29]

I think they'll resist a continued trend down. bought my latest house in 2021 when rates were 2.99%. Things have continued to go up from there because of all the money on the sidelines and still general home shortage. As prices and rates creep back down in the foreseeable future, things will become more "affordable" again. So the demand isnt really doing to dump hard. MHO.

There's a perfect storm for multiple massive housing market crashes for the next 25 years.
Rents are in freefall, New Home Prices are in freefall, over 50% of all homes are owned by the Silent Generation, Greatest Generation, and Boomers, over 70% of people that inherent homes sell immediately, the marriage rate is the lowest ever, and the birth rate is the lowest ever and has been in freefall for decades. Anyone that disputes the facts I mentioned in the non bold part of my post is inhaling copious amounts of Pharmaceutical Grade Super Copium.

[frankdtank20]

Homebuilders have been in huge expansion mode AND offering rate buydowns to motivate potential buyers. Owners of existing homes aren't listing their homes for sale, so homebuilders are overbuilding. Oversupply = lower prices. New homes in a normal market are usually 10% of home purchases, but they've been 30% for awhile. So even though they're selling at an unusually high clip new homes are still in oversupply, which tells you just how much homebuilders are building. A LOT.

Inventory of existing homes, nationwide = 3 months
Inventory of new homes, nationwide = 8.5 months

-6 months has always been been the guidance between a seller vs buyer's market

And I suspect some of the decrease in new home prices is WHAT homes are being built. Less single family, more townhomes, which are cheaper.

[guest89]

Ok, so we are experiencing a minor correction in the real estate market. Perfectly normal. If things pull back to the 330K range on that chart we'll be about right where we should be.

There's a perfect storm for multiple massive housing market crashes for the next 25 years.
Rents are in freefall, New Home Prices are in freefall, over 50% of all homes are owned by the Silent Generation, Greatest Generation, and Boomers, over 70% of people that inherent homes sell immediately, the marriage rate is the lowest ever, and the birth rate is the lowest ever and has been in freefall for decades. Anyone that disputes the facts I mentioned in the non bold part of my post is inhaling copious amounts of Pharmaceutical Grade Super Copium.

I hope so. I've been hoping to scoop up about 10 rental homes or so prior to retirement. Even if there is a crash rentcucks won't be able to afford homes.


I doubt it happens but if it does I'll be waiting.