New Home prices down 20% from peak. Falling faster than 2008

[radrd]

Subbed for masterclass education later. So much to unpack here!

[frankdtank20]

Still gobsmacked that the average price is only 400k. In Canada overall it's over 700k and in big cities like Toronto it's well over a million.

Existing homes are more expensive than the new homes prices shown in those charts. Strange times. And the average price of a home in the US is significantly higher than the median price. They sound like they should be the same but they're very different. The avg home price in the US is 20% higher than the median, which means the higher end of the market is still going hard, still a lot of capital being placed as investment instead of a place to live.

Unusually high numbers of homes owned by wealthy foreigners during unstable times. There are about 15 million vacant homes in the US and it sure as schitt isn't from abandonment. And there's the AirBnB effect. If anything is likely to "crash" the market any time soon it would be AirBnB owners deciding to sell off en masse.

[x-trainer ben]

lol.

There's a lot more out there than charts...

just provide the links or charts, simple.

we can all examine and debate.

[MEDITATE]

This data is only for new builds, it does not include existing house sale prices.

[WetCoaster]

NAR data shows that median sale prices of existing homes are near record highs. February 2024’s median of $384,500 is off the all-time-high of $413,800, but it’s the highest February median on record. (Seasonal fluctuations in home prices typically make late spring the highest-priced time of the year — the all-time-high was reached in June 2022.)

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate...bout-to-crash/

[-JR]

Oh no!

[SaltyDog920]

Just give it time. The real fireworks haven't even started yet.

I was told the fireworks started in March of '22...before my value went up another 10%

[OliverHeldens]

I was told the fireworks started in March of '22...before my value went up another 10%

You don't think Inflation is up more than 10% in the last 2 years?

[-JR]

By the looks of it we still have room to drop if we over correct like in 2010. Completely different environment then the '08 clusterfuk though.

[stevebec]

Part of that is because builders have been building smaller homes with fewer upgrades to make them more affordable. A $/sf chart would take a lot of that out.

[Retoaded]

Median home price =/= housing crash. The more expensive your house is, the less willing people will be to take the mortgage rate hit. So people are still buying starter homes and cheaper homes, but not one is upgrading from a 600k home to an 800k home when their mortgage rate will go from 3% to 7%.

All that being said, prices are definitely down a little bit.

[twovalvekid]

just provide the links or charts, simple.

we can all examine and debate.

The exact point was OP continually comes in with ridiculous financial threads that blow up in his face. And in this one...shows one chart that says median home price is going down and makes an outrageous claim about it.

Then, with faced with...hey theres more than just this one singular chart to pay attention to...asks for another one and proceeds to give the vibe of not understanding or thinking about the myriad of other data available. And in the OP says interest rates are going to stay the same for years (so obviously who was the fed lately?).

[Retoaded]

The exact point was OP continually comes in with ridiculous financial threads that blow up in his face. And in this one...shows one chart that says median home price is going down and makes an outrageous claim about it.

Then, with faced with...hey theres more than just this one singular chart to pay attention to...asks for another one and proceeds to give the vibe of not understanding or thinking about the myriad of other data available. And in the OP says interest rates are going to stay the same for years (so obviously who was the fed lately?).

its one of the stranger trolls on the misc, and that is saying something.

[OliverHeldens]

The exact point was OP continually comes in with ridiculous financial threads that blow up in his face. And in this one...shows one chart that says median home price is going down and makes an outrageous claim about it.

Then, with faced with...hey theres more than just this one singular chart to pay attention to...asks for another one and proceeds to give the vibe of not understanding or thinking about the myriad of other data available. And in the OP says interest rates are going to stay the same for years (so obviously who was the fed lately?).

The only way Mortgage Rates drop at this point would be the result of a significant downturn in the economy. Which would also tank housing prices.

[twovalvekid]

The only way Mortgage Rates drop at this point would be the result of a significant downturn in the economy. Which would also tank housing prices.

So what do you think mortgage rates are tied to, and why do you think they are going to stay the same, if not go up, for years?

[OliverHeldens]

So what do you think mortgage rates are tied to, and why do you think they are going to stay the same, if not go up, for years?

Mortgage Rates are typically based on the 10 Year Treasury yield.

I'm not saying they'll necessarily go higher than here. But they certainly aren't showing any signs currently of dropping below 6% anytime soon.

[x-trainer ben]

The exact point was OP continually comes in with ridiculous financial threads that blow up in his face. And in this one...shows one chart that says median home price is going down and makes an outrageous claim about it.

Then, with faced with...hey theres more than just this one singular chart to pay attention to...asks for another one and proceeds to give the vibe of not understanding or thinking about the myriad of other data available. And in the OP says interest rates are going to stay the same for years (so obviously who was the fed lately?).

Well in this thread and another recent threads people RARELY prove their points with charts, so we are expected to decide without opposing information.

The "trust me" model on bb.com is no longer valid.
We got too many fake links.

[OliverHeldens]

Oh no!

Ha! You drew it wrong. There's still a loooooooooong way left to go.

https://ibb.co/db59j0J

Right now, they're in a mess and they know it. Either housing values can tank and tons of people are under water. Or they can hold the markets down for another 10 years until the markets actually catch up to where they should be.

Right now, they're trying the "catch up" approach, but that isn't going to last.

[dfprodz]

eh the rates are still high so that's still not any indication of a drop anytime soon

[dfprodz]

Ha! You drew it wrong. There's still a loooooooooong way left to go.
https://ibb.co/db59j0J

no matter how we slice it, it's not going down lol

[Kiop]

Blackswan event
will fuk everyone,
beside the crunched middleclass
and the invasion of ai.in the ass

[blueberryboy]

This data is only for new builds, it does not include existing house sale prices.

LMAO

Op caught rentcel copeing yet once again.

[OffwhiteBrah]

OP's housing threads are incredibly adorable but so far he's batting 0.00% dating back to 2022

[OliverHeldens]

no matter how we slice it, it's not going down lol

Average price dropping another $100k by 2026 isn't a good thing for the housing market, and that's how it will go.

[twovalvekid]

Well in this thread and another recent threads people RARELY prove their points with charts, so we are expected to decide without opposing information.

The "trust me" model on bb.com is no longer valid.
We got too many fake links.

Nothing to do with "trust me." But when i make a general statement about other factors and play and unpacked it a little....then get a response of "show me another chart" from someone who continually posts full retard takes that blow up in his face.. Sorry i didnt continue to go the extra mile.

Which is exactly the point im trying to make asking this specific question:

Mortgage Rates are typically based on the 10 Year Treasury yield.

I'm not saying they'll necessarily go higher than here. But they certainly aren't showing any signs currently of dropping below 6% anytime soon.

Which is all based on speculation and actual changes in what...

[Vhagar]

Just give it time. The real fireworks haven't even started yet.

Any day now right? Only 4 years behind schedule for you doomers

[OliverHeldens]

Nothing to do with "trust me." But when i make a general statement about other factors and play and unpacked it a little....then get a response of "show me another chart" from someone who continually posts full retard takes that blow up in his face.. Sorry i didnt continue to go the extra mile.

Which is exactly the point im trying to make asking this specific question:



Which is all based on speculation and actual changes in what...

It's based on the fact that the economy doesn't appear to be heading toward a significant recession, and lowering interest rates would re-ignite inflation so there's a significant incentive for the Federal Reserve to not provide additional accommodation to markets

[OliverHeldens]

Any day now right? Only 4 years behind schedule for you doomers

It's only been 2 years. But there are another few years of this process left.

[Destor]

House prices actually crashing is something that would likely trigger the Fed to tap into the 5% of interest rate easing they have in their back pockets

These days I buy much more into the idea of a soft landing tbh, this isn't 2008

[OliverHeldens]

House prices actually crashing is something that would likely trigger the Fed to tap into the 5% of interest rate easing they have in their back pockets

These days I buy much more into the idea of a soft landing tbh, this isn't 2008

I agree that things look like a soft landing at this point. But that just means instead of a quick crash and renewed growth, it's a prolonged period of below average growth.

This can be settled in 5 years or 10. At this point, it looks like it will be settled in 10.