Massive energy crisis inbound; hundreds of millions…

[katya422]

Reality

- the next 6 months gonna suck balls for Europe. The are sorta fuked

- the US is going to be fine overall, just a very unnecessarily annoying next 6-9 months, and a kinda bad next year and a half (unless you entered in with a home purchased or refinanced 2 years with a fixed - and got a auto that will last 7 years 2 years ago)- for that person that will be balling.

-it will really suck in China, and they have a very ugly recovery path.

- the dollar is still king, will remain king, and has wholeheartedly reestablished that reality for the foreseeable future.

-when it’s all said and done, the US is positioned to recover much quicker and stronger than the rest of the world.

We will be fine, it will just unnecessarily suck for a little while.






The disheartening part is we won’t be here near as good as we could’ve been without this recent “inflation reduction act”- specifically the corporate tax part.

Hope you're right. I continue to see negative economic news for the US too though. I'm aware that the US$ is strong vs. other currencies right now.

How has the labor thing been going for you?

[gachase21]

Hope you're right. I continue to see negative economic news for the US too though. I'm aware that the US$ is strong vs. other currencies right now.

How has the labor thing been going for you?

Labor still tight. Customer demand still strong as fuk.

There’s a ton of bad economic news for the US.

It is going to be a little fugly a while - but not long-term catastrophic- and it will be recoverable.

Bad year and a half.

Fed rates go up - but….. you have people like I mentioned above with higher incomes - but their realized inflation actually isn’t that much higher because they fixed/locked all their rates 2 years ago- so they will still keep pressing consumer demand… and this is a significant amount of people.

As we just saw with the railway strike - workers are still on a position of power to add more wage pressure.

Fed will raises rates - and that will make cost go up for corporate debt, thus passed to consumer (inflation)

Then you have weird inventory cliffs that will have a dramtic price collapse- I.e wait till those acres and acres full of cars waiting on micro chips to be complete and enter the system


It will be interesting to see what Jerome Powell says tomorrow about adjustments to the balance sheet “reduction” plan.

[gachase21]

One more side note-

Wheat futures went up between 6-7.6% today - almost hit daily trading cap.

2007ish type levels for this time of year…

[Kraken]

The disheartening part is we won’t be here near as good as we could’ve been without this recent “inflation reduction act”- specifically the corporate tax part.

Every major expansionary policy this admin passes, sets us back 1 to 2 years at a minimum. we are going to have about 6 to 8 years to go to recover from this, possibly longer.

[gachase21]

Analysis: Europe energy crisis may deepen with looming liquidity crunch

Europe's problems in sourcing oil and gas this winter after a dispute with Russia may be exacerbated by a new crisis in the market where prices are already red-hot: a liquidity crunch that could send them spiralling higher still.

But European governments have only belatedly rallied to offer financial support to power providers on the brink of collapse, in an effort to ease pressure on a market whose smooth operation is vital to keep people warm.

"We have a dysfunctional futures market, which then creates problems for the physical market and leads to higher prices, higher inflation," a senior trading source told Reuters.

The problem first came to light in March when an association of top traders, utilities, oil majors and bankers sent a letter to regulators calling for contingency plans. read more

This was triggered by market players rushing to cover their financial exposure to soaring gas prices through derivatives, hedging against future price spikes in the physical market, where a product is delivered, by taking a 'short' position.

Market players typically borrow to build short positions in the futures market, with 85-90% coming from banks. Some 10-15% of the value of the short, known as minimum margin, is covered by the traders' own funds and deposited with a broker's account.

But if funds in the account fall below the minimum margin requirement, in this case 10-15%, it triggers a 'margin call'.

As prices for power, gas and coal have risen over the past year, so have the price of shorts, with the resulting margin calls forcing oil and gas majors, trading firms and power utilities to tie up more capital.

Some, particularly smaller firms, have been hurt so badly they have been forced to exit trading altogether as energy prices soared after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, which made a general global shortage worse.

Any such drop in the number of players reduces market liquidity, which can in turn lead to even more volatility and sharper spikes in prices that can hurt even major players.

Since late August, European Union governments have stepped in to help utilities such as Germany's Uniper. read more

Much more continued…..

https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ch-2022-09-21/

[gachase21]

Every major expansionary policy this admin passes, sets us back 1 to 2 years at a minimum. we are going to have about 6 to 8 years to go to recover from this, possibly longer.

I think you and me just disagree with the outlook for this.

I will say the additional corporate tax 15%min total coming couldn’t have come at a worse time- strait inflationary causing - section 179 bonus tier down from the TCJA destroying mess.

Obviously I disagree with doing that on a wholesale basis- but if they were going to do that they should’ve been doing that coming out of the mess not at the worst time of it.


Most of the rest of his policies our economy will digest fairly quickly- and this November the deadlock will start so not much different will happen.

It will be pretty ugly for a bit though.

A much bigger separation of the “have’s” and “have not’s”

It will be a completely different experience for people depending on how you entered it.

[katya422]

One more side note-

Wheat futures went up between 6-7.6% today - almost hit daily trading cap.

2007ish type levels for this time of year…

Perhaps related to downward yield forecasts from the USDA? I put this up in a thread on main misc:

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/art...t-expectations

But I had already heard something about having 70% less fertilizer for 2023 planting season.

[gachase21]

Perhaps related to downward yield forecasts from the USDA? I put this up in a thread on main misc:

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/art...t-expectations

But I had already heard something about having 70% less fertilizer for 2023 planting season.

Scroll down this ladies page for a while and read a few days of post.

She is my go to for upkeep on crop commodities.


https://twitter.com/kannbwx?s=21&t=x...BvDqAFlMgkev3g



Read the last 7 days and you’ll see why I follow






Edit: also

[katya422]

Related- I'm watching this right now.



It is about the collapse of Germany, crazy energy prices, and fertilizer/food.

He compares current changes in Germany with the changes that happened there at the start of the Wiemar infation.





And that energy over there has passed 1K Euros per MWH. For comparison a quick search found under $200 per MWH for the US.







The producer inflation [45.8% for August] in Germany is wrecking them. Businesses that make things shutting down which feed along to other businesses that need those products that are not being made.

Notice fertilizer up 108% year over year.

still watching...

Countries are doing big spending programs to try and prevent disaster, but of course more spending = more inflation.

[katya422]

Another mention of systemic collapse.




Government spending may not be able to keep up.




The situation is worsening.

[katya422]

Scroll down this ladies page for a while and read a few days of post.

She is my go to for upkeep on crop commodities.


https://twitter.com/kannbwx?s=21&t=x...BvDqAFlMgkev3g



Read the last 7 days and you’ll see why I follow






Edit: also

Nice handstands. Following.

[gachase21]

What’s going to be crucial - especially for members of the right - is to watch Europe like a fish tank this next year - and articulate very well the relationship of how that result is from decades of leftist policies.

We must communicate a generation here not to repeat those mistakes here while there is still time.

Europe’s fuk’d

[Hussar1]

People were crying about Peak Oil 30 phucking years ago. Still no apocalypse.

I mean, in all seriousness, give us some real societal breakdown. I'm tired of living around so many mouth-breathers.

[JonZ]

My energy bill has gone up at least 50% this summer.

Mine hadn't this summer but I noticed a big difference this past winter.

I have solar panels that go to grid and I get charged the difference. In years past that would be about $9 in warmer months, about $60 in cold.

This past winter that shot up to about $150 or so.

Govt = I cant supply my own power to home. I HAVE to connect to grid and get charged the difference.

Feel sorry for people and what it will cost to heat their homes this winter. A friend who has propane said his bills went up about 150% past winter.

[gachase21]

Video link- hilarious…..


https://twitter.com/consumersfirst/s...PByNElSd2ZSNwQ




Even longer version with more bat chit crazy

https://twitter.com/tomselliott/stat...PByNElSd2ZSNwQ

[Kraken]

I think you and me just disagree with the outlook for this.

I will say the additional corporate tax 15%min total coming couldn’t have come at a worse time- strait inflationary causing - section 179 bonus tier down from the TCJA destroying mess.

Obviously I disagree with doing that on a wholesale basis- but if they were going to do that they should’ve been doing that coming out of the mess not at the worst time of it.


Most of the rest of his policies our economy will digest fairly quickly- and this November the deadlock will start so not much different will happen.

It will be pretty ugly for a bit though.

A much bigger separation of the “have’s” and “have not’s”

It will be a completely different experience for people depending on how you entered it.

Most mainstream economists use is cyclical Standard. All they see are zeros and ones. Government interferences influence the market, breaking the cycle.

What I said was completely logical; inflation takes one to two years to realize and can take one to two years, and much longer sometimes, to recover. these are the largest expansionary policies the US has ever seen in its history. It’s tremendous inflation, and each policies inflation pushes both the recovery and the realized inflation out farther.

We now have run away inflation, which, as Hayek put it “is like trying to catch a tiger by its tail”. Along with the rates having been too low for too long, we have set up a situation fo run away inflation. Rates would have to be something like 8% right now to catch up. it’s going to be an impossible task.

We saw a crack up boom in the EU, and we are getting set up for one in the US as well. If this administration continues, we will see a crack up boom. All of the economic markers are there; too low of rates, major rallies and crashes, nonstop money printing, and major decrease in supply, high demand… this is no normal business cycle

[Kraken]

[katya422]

Most mainstream economists use is cyclical Standard. All they see are zeros and ones. Government interferences influence the market, breaking the cycle.

What I said was completely logical; inflation takes one to two years to realize and can take one to two years, and much longer sometimes, to recover. these are the largest expansionary policies the US has ever seen in its history. It’s tremendous inflation, and each policies inflation pushes both the recovery and the realized inflation out farther.

We now have run away inflation, which, as Hayek put it “is like trying to catch a tiger by its tail”. Along with the rates having been too low for too long, we have set up a situation fo run away inflation. Rates would have to be something like 8% right now to catch up. it’s going to be an impossible task.

We saw a crack up boom in the EU, and we are getting set up for one in the US as well. If this administration continues, we will see a crack up boom. All of the economic markers are there; too low of rates, major rallies and crashes, nonstop money printing, and major decrease in supply, high demand… this is no normal business cycle

Agree.

This isn't new [start of September] but today is the first time I saw it.

At the start of the year, Grantham said that conditions showed bubble prices in stocks, bonds, real estate, and part of the commodity sector, and warned that a return to trend would slice half the value off the S&P 500. Bubble deflations often send prices below trend, but the 2000-2002 technology bubble and house prices in 2008-9 only returned to trend, Grantham surmises, because of aggressive intervention from the Federal Reserve.

https://citywireusa.com/professional...l-act/a2396138

S&P value down by half. Though I've heard some estimates that it could go even lower and this isn't just the people who are perma-bears.

[Dude.Jon]

German PPI up over 50%, fertilizer over 100%, EU countries paying the equivalent of 400-500$ per barrel for energy, heating homes with candles and clay pots, searching for firewood, German military planning for mass civil unrest...

Food inflation is just getting started. Buy I-bonds through treasury direct, up to 10k per calendar year, currently paying 9.62%. Just have to hold a minimum of 12 months.

[gachase21]

Agree.

This isn't new [start of September] but today is the first time I saw it.



https://citywireusa.com/professional...l-act/a2396138

S&P value down by half. Though I've heard some estimates that it could go even lower and this isn't just the people who are perma-bears.

The publicly traded market may be looking at a “lost decade” type stagnation - but more of a few year version than a 10 year version.


If you get in ownership a private company however - have great inventory control- go no-debt- then it’s yearly dividends at the floating margins of cost vs revenue.

You will win- and win big.

One of the fundamental differences- The rest of the developed world is going to suck way worse than us.

We are net importers - they will be battling to keep our business. Our currency will remain dominant over their’s - and many small nation currencies will go into collapse mode.

Many of the nations that have lowered the purchasing our debt will have to increase it again (if we allow them) to protect their own currency - especially China which has stopped- and way behind.

I wouldn’t feel comfortably holding any publicly traded currencies for a while

[gachase21]

Let’s just ignore the free lesson Europe gave us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eaters-by-2030

[DuracellBunny]

Let’s just ignore the free lesson Europe gave us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eaters-by-2030

Between that and all cars being EVs, they must have a magic electricity tree somewhere.

[Kraken]

Its a shame it took these catastrophic events to push the EU back to the right. Everyone talked about Swedens success of socialism for so long…

https://news.yahoo.com/immigration-c...202748280.html

[gachase21]

We’ll see how it ends…

Futures how they down back below 30k this morning.


Just l o l


Funny but not funny

[NitrogenWidget]

Let’s just ignore the free lesson Europe gave us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eaters-by-2030

Hochul wants to ban gas hookups in new houses and renovations. Her plan is to eliminate NG use as much as possible and force people to convert to electricity.
in NY.
where the weather here leaves people without power for days regularly during the winter due to ice and trees taking out power lines.
meanwhile natural gas almost never goes out because the pipes are below the frost line.

[Kraken]

Hochul wants to ban gas hookups in new houses and renovations. Her plan is to eliminate NG use as much as possible and force people to convert to electricity.
in NY.
where the weather here leaves people without power for days regularly during the winter due to ice and trees taking out power lines.
meanwhile natural gas almost never goes out because the pipes are below the frost line.

Unfortunately the result is more demand for natural gas. Natural gas use went from about 75% to about 85% after they shut down their nuclear power plant and tried to force people off of natural gas. The cost of electricity went up too high when the power plant was taken off-line. Natural gas was the best and cheapest and will remain so.

The Dems don’t understand scarce resources and how an economy decides, ESPECIALLY when the government interferes and influences the market in the opposite direction of what they intended. The market will always look for alternatives

Edit; natural gas is actually would help the United States decrease emissions so much. It is a vital part of the process of getting to an economic status that will allow people to not only afford new energy sources, but develop and extract new ones too. Cheap energy allows people to find other routes!!

[Stizzel]

Estonia announced their contribution to owning the Ruskies is to disconnect from Russian power and hook up to the European grid. So another country to drain the system that is already suffering from skyrocketing prices and rolling blackouts.

Fuking clown world is going at warp speed in Europe.

[leafs43]

The Czech Republic last week capped energy on residents.

That means the shortfall will have to be paid for by industry.


Czech Republic's economy is going to collapse when businesses can't stay open.


Inb4 "Who cases abotu the Czech republic" when the global capital equipment supply chain grinds to a screeching halt

[Stizzel]

The Czech Republic last week capped energy on residents.

That means the shortfall will have to be paid for by industry.


Czech Republic's economy is going to collapse when businesses can't stay open.


Inb4 "Who cases abotu the Czech republic" when the global capital equipment supply chain grinds to a screeching halt

Once upon a time trade was conducted via barter. Eventually direct barter was replaced with things like gold, salt, shells, etc, and then that was replaced with money. As time went on we generated so much wealth that we could have people live their entire lives thinking that money is the wealth itself rather than a representation of wealth and very soon these people are going to learn a harsh lesson.

Cliffs: Ron Paul was right

[gachase21]

It’s sad, but watching this chit is funny.

Not funny.

But funny as chit.

So effing predictable