**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[kusok]

I tried to close my ZIM CSP at expiry expecting it to drop to like $.01-$.03 given that the premium was $.17, and the underlying at expiration was $9.48 with a $9.50 strike, and the damn liquidity went nuts and made the BTC price at expiry $.35

Such bullchit

This is like that time I had a CC on DOCS and the stock closed aftermarket at a penny over strike price but come Monday those fukkers didn't exercise and the stock dropped significantly that morning

Should be illegal

None if that matters. You should only sell options on stocks you want to own. Many sellers never even roll puts, they want to get assigned. You can try to buy a put back after you captured 90% of the money, but if it doesn’t work, so what.. let it go.

I had the weirdest things happen to my puts and calls, nobody cares, the plan is made before you sell the option. I had situation where I was assigned out of the blue long before expiration, I also had a very very far out of the money call stay at very high price until the last split second and never went down in price (on amazon of all things), it’s all over the place, but that should make no difference.

What does matter is making sure stocks like ZIM and upst never take more than 10% of your holdings, and probably better not more than 1%
Currently if you said you are 50% bitcoin and solana, and the other 50% you’re buying the tesla dip or just holding sp500 if you sell calls on that, ok.

[kusok]

Feel like if I bought into anything else when SPY is this high I'm just going to create new bags.

Google is currently at fair value. Tesla is an easy dip buy here. Bitcoin is going to double and mostly likely triple from here in the next several months/weeks. Solana too. Amazon is never a bad idea, should be double in the next couple of years. PLTR is an easy buy here too. ENPH having a nice dip right now.

[TugOfPeace]

Odds are good no one would be on the other side and they just disappear lmao

Edit: What's poppin' Friday night investment gang. I just put the kids down. Sippin some whiskey and looked through the NYCB 10-k while waiting for the boys to hop on to play a few games I saw an interesting note--- that of their $18B rent-regulated multi-family housing portfolio 40% are in their interest only period.

Got assigned lol!

[ikytdsutwvc]

Enphase is like the Amazon of the solar industry right?, #1

[kusok]

Enphase is like the Amazon of the solar industry right?, #1

ENPH is a leader, BUT that space is not like online retail and ENPH is not like Amazon. Amazon does more stuff, and solar is currently under attack as governments are taking away some of the help they gave solar industry in the past. ENPH also has competition, Amazon does not.

So.. your allocation should reflect this. Amazon is a kind of stock you can have 10% of your portfolio in. But not ENPH. That type of stock can be 1% of your portfolio.

[RobParks2M]

Enphase is like the Amazon of the solar industry right?, #1

They are exactly like Amazon if they are diverse and have 10+ different industry’s they are involved in. Otherwise no they absolutely are not.

[Visel]

Anyone else sitting with anticipation for NVDA calls? GTC and FOMC will make this a fairly chaotic week.

[Bingo559]

inverse head and shoulders on BROS coffee?

[TugOfPeace]

inverse head and shoulders on BROS coffee?

I trimmed my bros position last year for tax loss harvesting. Have about 130 shares now at $75 cost basis. I think if it touches $50, I'm just going to close it out for tax loss harvesting again.

[Bingo559]

my bags are heavy too. I'm averaged in the mid 50's. I've been to one of their locations before, and the lines were super crazy. kinda like chipotle when they first opened. but stock isnt behaving like chipotle unfortunately

[TugOfPeace]

my bags are heavy too. I'm averaged in the mid 50's. I've been to one of their locations before, and the lines were super crazy. kinda like chipotle when they first opened. but stock isnt behaving like chipotle unfortunately

I averaged down last year and made some money but $35 seems to be heavy resistance. It hasn't broken that price in a long time.

I could see it going above in the near term as it barely lost any support last week after the PPI print. Lot of bullish activity.

However given that inflation seems to be here to stay, I dont see too much upside long term. If there are rate cuts that could change, but its looking less and less likely..

Although I do wonder why share price has risen recently, maybe there is something I'm missing.

[GeneralSerpant]

In the past few weeks Nvidia’s been like going on a rollercoaster at an amusement park, day by day.

[Destor]

The moves are especially crazy considering it’s a fukn $2trillion+ stock

[RobParks2M]

Still accumulating puts on NYCB for July and starting to look at October puts too. I’ve got about a $50,000ish interest in them hitting receivership which probably isn’t highly likely, but a big drop can still pay off nicely for me. Earnings for them end of April and if they are truthful on their CRE positions particularly their portfolio of rent regulated housing they’ll freak anyone still holding and we will see a panic sell. IMO their deposits will keep dropping just because almost all consumers are net negative on income, lots of people chipping away at their savings right now. That, and their bonds are still rated as B2 aka “junk”. One more big scare and I think there is likely to be a bit of a run on their banks.

Not to mention a big credit facility from the government just ended so their cost to borrow is going to soar. They are selling their few quality loans to draw capital to pay for their bad positions. By doing this they also increase their overall % of loans that are CRE. If they go to move these underwater rent regulated loans they’ll likely be taking a 30-50% loss. They have I think $3b in these loans coming due this year so you can do the math. Look at my previous post. 40% of these loans are still in interest only period so investors holding these regulated building are going to hand over the keys to every single building and walk away with the profits from the last couple years. NYCB gonna be left holding the bag.


Just about their only positive is that they’ve built up $1B in loan loss provisions prior to their most recent $1b infusion plus another $1b in loan sales. they do save $300m a year in common dividends but end up paying about $100m to their preferred dilutive shares so only a net $200m year savings but screws common holders hard.

[TugOfPeace]

RIP Visel's NVDA calls??

[Destor]

Oil won’t stop going up

Inflation in Canada seems to be diverging further from the US, headline inflation for Feb came in below expectations and has a 2-handle on it now @ 2.8%.

75% chance of a June rate cut priced in here

[sooby]

I think I might dump some money into Tesla, maybe some more money into Exxon as well

[GeneralSerpant]

Oil won’t stop going up

Inflation in Canada seems to be diverging further from the US, headline inflation for Feb came in below expectations and has a 2-handle on it now @ 2.8%.

75% chance of a June rate cut priced in here

You trade currency?

[Destor]

You trade currency?

Nope just always watching the broader economy, inflation, interest rates, all that good stuff

I’m in oil & gas and real estate

[SipNPiz]

I closed out my EOG shares for profit and went into TALO

[RobParks2M]

Oil won’t stop going up

Inflation in Canada seems to be diverging further from the US, headline inflation for Feb came in below expectations and has a 2-handle on it now @ 2.8%.

75% chance of a June rate cut priced in here

Canadian real estate has already been in a bubble far longer than US so their inflation won’t get hit so hard from housing. Rising gas prices should move the needle for inflation.

[Destor]

Canadian real estate has already been in a bubble far longer than US so their inflation won’t get hit so hard from housing. Rising gas prices should move the needle for inflation.

With our system of only locking in rates for 5 years rather than 25-30 in the US, that also has other implications for home and rental prices since those higher financing costs would likely flow through to higher interest and rent costs much more quickly.

Real estate in Canada is highly variable by area though just like the US, prices have been doing nothing but going up in Alberta over this time but still very affordable compared to BC and Ontario. There is no bubble here, what I own for $1.5million total would probably blow many people’s minds.

[RobParks2M]

With our system of only locking in rates for 5 years rather than 25-30 in the US, that also has other implications for home and rental prices since those higher financing costs would likely flow through to higher interest and rent costs much more quickly.

Real estate in Canada is highly variable by area though just like the US, prices have been doing nothing but going up in Alberta over this time but still very affordable compared to BC and Ontario. There is no bubble here, what I own for $1.5million total would probably blow many people’s minds.

Sorry I primarily meant major cities where prices have been high.

Are you saying your home is $1.5m or is this an investment property? Oh lawd.

In Murica no one who had a house pre 2021 is gonna sell in the next 15 years. The low rates dropped monthly payments so freaking low. Instead everyone I’ve ever talked to says they’ll never sell their “starter” home they’ll just rent it out either LTR or STR. Gonna be funny when boomers start dying and suddenly there’s a plethora of houses and no one to live in them.

[SipNPiz]

Sorry I primarily meant major cities where prices have been high.

Are you saying your home is $1.5m or is this an investment property? Oh lawd.

In Murica no one who had a house pre 2021 is gonna sell in the next 15 years. The low rates dropped monthly payments so freaking low. Instead everyone I’ve ever talked to says they’ll never sell their “starter” home they’ll just rent it out either LTR or STR. Gonna be funny when boomers start dying and suddenly there’s a plethora of houses and no one to live in them.

I plan on not renting out my starter home, dead beats who don’t pay you can’t evict in most states, maintenance and a terrible return on capital are other reasons I don’t want to rent out.

[Destor]

Sorry I primarily meant major cities where prices have been high.

Are you saying your home is $1.5m or is this an investment property? Oh lawd.

In Murica no one who had a house pre 2021 is gonna sell in the next 15 years. The low rates dropped monthly payments so freaking low. Instead everyone I’ve ever talked to says they’ll never sell their “starter” home they’ll just rent it out either LTR or STR. Gonna be funny when boomers start dying and suddenly there’s a plethora of houses and no one to live in them.

Alberta’s two main cities are both 1million+ population, Vancouver and Toronto areas specifically are where you see the ridiculous prices in Canada and they’re two of the least affordable metro areas in the world in terms of house prices. In Alberta, our two cities are two of the most affordable lol, the land of extremes.

Bought my current primary residence for just under $1m and then have a second house that was a bit under $500k and am renting that out. The place I’m living in right now, with the land and everything, would probably be $3-4m+ in Vancouver.

I plan on not renting out my starter home, dead beats who don’t pay you can’t evict in most states, maintenance and a terrible return on capital are other reasons I don’t want to rent out.

Yeah it’s work man, definitely not without risk but at least my province has very good protections for landlords.

I have this house locked in until 2026 with a 1.69% interest rate, so that’s a big incentive to keep renting it out for the time being (but don’t want to sell it either way)

[TugOfPeace]

1.69%.. fuark

[Destor]

1.69%.. fuark

It renewed at basically the perfect time, right in the midst of COVID when rates were slashed, but that will change in 2026 (in which case I’ll plan to charge more rent to offset)

[kusok]

When is that stupid FOMC? Market popping, somebody on inside knows something?


Inb4 correction

[SipNPiz]

When is that stupid FOMC? Market popping, somebody on inside knows something?


Inb4 correction

11 am taxafornia time me thinks.

[TugOfPeace]

Seems like Powell will hold rates higher for longer.. hope thats the case

Imagine how badly prices on everything would rise if he let his foot off the pedal now

Have some CCs on UPST but bought some puts today. My first BTO play this year heh. I just break even if I'm wrong so no worries