**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[SipNPiz]

Love me a good red day, hopefully more to come!

[Lefticle]

Love me a good red day, hopefully more to come!

This. Currently cash heavy and need to buy more stocks.

[imbeingcereal]

Oh yea. Known about the tech heavy weighting for a while, but the reality is that the AI bubble won't pop for a long time right?

Markets can stay irrational longer than I can stay liquid, but the value of a business inevitably comes down to cash flows in the long-run. If I'm wrong and AI does take over the world, then it's value-add will eventually flow to the shareholders' coffers and I'll have missed out on an opportunity. From what I understand so far, AI is mostly something that'll enhance my productivity, almost like a calculator on steroids. It'll help companies, there will be increases to bottom lines as companies cut costs or generated revenues more quickly than before. How much of that will happen vs how much is hype is TBD. I personally am not betting on as much an impact as the markets currently suggest, but I'm open to hearing (intelligent) discussion otherwise.

As for when all this falls apart is anyone's guess. At the end of the day, markets are driven in the short-run by emotion and sentiment. Understand when human psychology will flip and when is damn near impossible. If it were easy enough to explain away with a few moving averages and "charts", everyone would do it and those techniques wouldn't work anymore anyway.

[im2manly]

Any strongly held opinions as to whether or not SOFI is a strong buy right now?

[RobParks2M]

Any strongly held opinions as to whether or not SOFI is a strong buy right now?

I’m just holding. I should have wrote some CCs at $9 last week but was focused on other things. I’m not keen to buy more tbh. Not much for catalysts coming up other than being the top bank by virtue of not existing as a bank till recently.

[looxmatter]

so are stonks going up or down rest of the year?

FOMC just set the tone. we will probably be bouncing between 400 and 430 on SPY.

[looxmatter]

wtf is wrong with users negging me for no reason. Tryin to add as much value to this thread as possible.

Anyone have any thoughts on Hedgeye? Keith McCullough a hedge fund manager sharing and selling signals.

https ://www . youtube. com /watch?v=CyRj1Oqy6sw

[2020Wellness]

Love me a good red day, hopefully more to come!

I bought.

[looxmatter]

Made an easy 300$ today. If you look at DXY and US10Y on 5 min or 15 minute charts, The both broke support of 105.413 and 4.448%. This cause a rebound in equites. Bought (O DTE 432 STRIKE) calls after MACD cross on SPY and jumped all the way to 432. Easy scalp with both DXY and US10Y breaking support levels.

Looking for both DXY and US10Y to rebound and break through 105.413 and 4.448% as resistance (previous support) and if DXY breaks 105.627 and/or US10YR 4.508% we will have a huge dump in equities later in the day today! I don't think we need both to happen but it would be more confirmation from both for a red day in equities.

[looxmatter]

tempted to neg for complaining about negs


















































repped

I appreciate it brother! I got my 50 posts and will now be able to embed links and videos.

For SPY I'm expecting 434 too be too strong of a resistance and we will end the day red! DXY almost confirming this with a HUGE REBOUND!

edit:


From the US flash PMI:

"Hikes in wage bills, borrowing costs and material prices, with many panelists mentioning greater fuel expenses, drove up cost inflation in September. The overall rate of input price inflation quickened to the sharpest since June. The faster uptick was led by manufacturing firms where the pace of increase accelerated to the steepest since April as higher oil prices pushed up chemicals, plastics and transportation costs. Meanwhile, firms found it challenging to pass through the full extent of higher cost burdens to clients amid soft demand conditions and reduced purchasing power among customer"

Stagflation here we come!

[imbeingcereal]

I'm not a technical analysis guy, so can you guys enlighten me on how you determine support, etc.? I just don't get how you guys come up with these seemingly arbitrary levels of support, resistance, double-tops, head-shoulder-knees-toes patterns, etc.

[im2manly]

Student loans will need to be paid back next month I think, that alone is a reason to buy. I'm not opening any new major positions right now though. May do some LEAPs instead

I’m just holding. I should have wrote some CCs at $9 last week but was focused on other things. I’m not keen to buy more tbh. Not much for catalysts coming up other than being the top bank by virtue of not existing as a bank till recently.

Thanks, Boyos. I really appreciate the input! Been looking hard at SoFI and PLTR

[looxmatter]

I'm not a technical analysis guy, so can you guys enlighten me on how you determine support, etc.? I just don't get how you guys come up with these seemingly arbitrary levels of support, resistance, double-tops, head-shoulder-knees-toes patterns, etc.

How I do it:

Put chart on Daily time frame. See areas where there are a lot of wicks/price rejects/bounces and place lines there. Zoom in on hourly and see if there are any other big areas of support/resistance. It's not a set in stone science but more of an art and once you get the hang of it you'll catch on quickly. Just practice every day before open with a different stock.

I like this guy who basically simplifies his techniques and rules. He also posted screenshots of his day trading and he is extremely profitable.







Just a tip: these lines shouldn't necessarily be views as lines but rather areas. There could be a difference of 0.1 to where prices reject/bounce.

Also a good idea to subscribe to a YouTube/day trader who goes lives and gives his opinions on markets. You can compare your levels of support/resistance with theirs!

Hope this helps.


edit:

SPY rejecting perfectly off of 434 as I called. DXY and 10YR both on up trend. loook out for a big dump in the markets today before close.

[looxmatter]

Made an easy 300$ today. If you look at DXY and US10Y on 5 min or 15 minute charts, The both broke support of 105.413 and 4.448%. This cause a rebound in equites. Bought (O DTE 432 STRIKE) calls after MACD cross on SPY and jumped all the way to 432. Easy scalp with both DXY and US10Y breaking support levels.

Looking for both DXY and US10Y to rebound and break through 105.413 and 4.448% as resistance (previous support) and if DXY breaks 105.627 and/or US10YR 4.508% we will have a huge dump in equities later in the day today! I don't think we need both to happen but it would be more confirmation from both for a red day in equities.

I appreciate it brother! I got my 50 posts and will now be able to embed links and videos.

For SPY I'm expecting 434 too be too strong of a resistance and we will end the day red! DXY almost confirming this with a HUGE REBOUND!

edit:


From the US flash PMI:

"Hikes in wage bills, borrowing costs and material prices, with many panelists mentioning greater fuel expenses, drove up cost inflation in September. The overall rate of input price inflation quickened to the sharpest since June. The faster uptick was led by manufacturing firms where the pace of increase accelerated to the steepest since April as higher oil prices pushed up chemicals, plastics and transportation costs. Meanwhile, firms found it challenging to pass through the full extent of higher cost burdens to clients amid soft demand conditions and reduced purchasing power among customer"

Stagflation here we come!

How I do it:

Put chart on Daily time frame. See areas where there are a lot of wicks/price rejects/bounces and place lines there. Zoom in on hourly and see if there are any other big areas of support/resistance. It's not a set in stone science but more of an art and once you get the hang of it you'll catch on quickly. Just practice every day before open with a different stock.

I like this guy who basically simplifies his techniques and rules. He also posted screenshots of his day trading and he is extremely profitable.

[youtube]33C40sMBEYY[youtube]

[youtube]qm90uTnxY1U[youtube]

[youtube]nuVv0ZWUfs4[youtube]

Just a tip: these lines shouldn't necessarily be views as lines but rather areas. There could be a difference of 0.1 to where prices reject/bounce.

Also a good idea to subscribe to a YouTube/day trader who goes lives and gives his opinions on markets. You can compare your levels of support/resistance with theirs!

Hope this helps.


edit:

SPY rejecting perfectly off of 434 as I called. DXY and 10YR both on up trend. look out for a big dump in the markets today before close.

I called it. I just didn't buy puts at 434 which I should of done but didn't get any confirmation from DXY or 10YR. DXY didn't even reach my resistance level of 105.627 for equities to start dumping.

Too late in the day to even make a play but SPY will probably hit 430 which is an EXTREMELY BIG SUPPORT LEVEL with a bunch of open interest options and buying support.






Can't be amd at 350$ profit but looking back at my charts I could of easily made more. **** should of bought puts when DXY broke vwap.

[swolefnatic]

Is it advisable to sell my stocks' returns over original cost basis that have accumulated throughout the year?

[usersignup2]

Can't be amd at 350$ profit but looking back at my charts I could of easily made more. **** should of bought puts when DXY broke vwap.

Base hits is all it takes. You don't have to take every trade and in the long run it's probably advantageous to stop short - mental fatigue is real with trading. Avoid chasing the high when trading...winning becomes addictive and you may end up seeking it at the detriment to your portfolio.

Nice work on your gains!

[RobParks2M]

I guess I should have been more scared lmfao fuk. Already down another 3% on fukking bonds that I bought just last week. Still gonna keep averaging in- they probably can’t drop a whole lot more. I sold a TLT CSP at $85 strike for $1.65 that I’ll just take assignment on early if we get close to ITM. The move in the last 2 weeks is blowing my mind. I’m planning on searching around for indications things are breaking when I’m chilling at home later. Wondering if fed borrow funds are gonna get hammered by banks desperate for liquidity.

Berkshire hasn’t managed to find any distressed companies to lend to so I’m guessing there is further to go.

[GreatReset1]

Today is a Biden's America day.

The ones that votes for or support Biden.. deserve more days like this.

This is what you voted for!!

Now take it boy!!

[RobParks2M]

Always nice to see an autism awareness post ^ sorry you never got the help you so desperately needed. Unfortunately you didn’t manage to post it somewhere it belongs. You see this is an investing thread. It’s for people with money who buy and sell things.

[GreatReset1]

Always nice to see an autism awareness post ^ sorry you never got the help you so desperately needed. Unfortunately you didn’t manage to post it somewhere it belongs. You see this is an investing thread. It’s for people with money who buy and sell things.

I guarantee I have way more $$$ than a cuckold like yourself. You are one of the reasons the United States is in decline. People like you are a virus to this country. You want to completely ignore the fact that Biden has ruined this country. You are the problem. I hope suffering enters your life and sticks around until you get your head out of your ass.

[Destor]

I guess I should have been more scared lmfao fuk. Already down another 3% on fukking bonds that I bought just last week. Still gonna keep averaging in- they probably can’t drop a whole lot more. I sold a TLT CSP at $85 strike for $1.65 that I’ll just take assignment on early if we get close to ITM. The move in the last 2 weeks is blowing my mind. I’m planning on searching around for indications things are breaking when I’m chilling at home later. Wondering if fed borrow funds are gonna get hammered by banks desperate for liquidity.

Berkshire hasn’t managed to find any distressed companies to lend to so I’m guessing there is further to go.

You can be down on bonds? I really have no clue how this side of things works, should do some testing

[imbeingcereal]

You can be down on bonds? I really have no clue how this side of things works, should do some testing

Yes. That's what happened with SVB. Longer duration bonds are more sensitive to rates. If rates go up, your bond value drops. Think about it. If you buy a bond for 4% and a new issuance is available for 5%, they're not going to be worth the same amount

[Destor]

Yes. That's what happened with SVB. Longer duration bonds are more sensitive to rates. If rates go up, your bond value drops. Think about it. If you buy a bond for 4% and a new issuance is available for 5%, they're not going to be worth the same amount

Does that still matter if you hold to maturity?

[RobParks2M]

Does that still matter if you hold to maturity?

It matters in that while everyone else is getting 5% a year you are still only getting 4% lol so either you take your loss lump sum or just wait it out and slowly take your lost interest.

[Destor]

It matters in that while everyone else is getting 5% a year you are still only getting 4% lol so either you take your loss lump sum or just wait it out and slowly take your lost interest.

Yeah I guess that makes sense, so it would be a *loss* in real terms if not nominal

[RobParks2M]

Yeah I guess that makes sense, so it would be a *loss* in real terms if not nominal

Only a real loss when you sell

[SipNPiz]

Doesn’t ZIM have a 150-200% dividend though

[usersignup2]

Doubled my position in ZIM. Cot damn I should learn to use stop loss. Bought this turd at $80 or so lmao. Cost basis $25 now.

Jmho but averaging down on ZIM has a real possibility of opportunity cost

[imbeingcereal]

Does that still matter if you hold to maturity?

Not really. If you're happy with 4% and that meets your income requirements, then it should essentially be fine unless they default and can't pay. The main risk is that rates usually go up in line with bankruptcy potential and/or inflation. HTM either means your risk of being paid back are less or your "I'm happy with this level of income" is less in real terms because of inflation.

[SipNPiz]

Question on holding bags. I know the answer already, but just curious if I'm missing anything.

Say I make money on other tickers - enough to offset the loss on a bag I'm holding. There wouldn't be any harm in just taking a loss on that position to offset my profit elsewhere and effectively break even on the stock right? This would free up cash to do other things.


Realized I could've sold out of BROS @ $35 and freed up a fair bit of cash, but too late now. That's my lightest bag so it frees up the most money. However, soon I could do that with other tickers.

I think you can offset long term against long term and short term against short term just as long as you haven’t bought any of the security or a like security within 30 days. I have losses on TLS but I bought at two different times so I’m waiting until the second batch is 1 year old so I can close and offset some long term gains. This might be stupid since maybe I could close now and half would be short term loss and half long term but I don’t have enough short term gains and I don’t know if you can file taxes with a short term loss and long term gain?