**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[camaleom]

boyos the bank I work for is taking in the arse... pray for me

[RobParks2M]

Also, shoutout FNMA posting a $3.8b profit Q1. 1 quarter. Government can’t figure out how to continue to keep it under their control and push back to public markets is getting closer with every profitable quarter regardless of market conditions. $130b in retained earnings are the conditions for Freddie and Fannie spin off. Ideally it won’t happen till after this interest rate cycle to make certain housing is as stable as everyone thinks. I’ve been starting positions just for the sake of holding over a year for capital gains.

@cam which one you at fella? A buddy of mine works at a Midwest regional and he’s nervous. Told me he liquidated his investment account which isn’t a good sign. He won’t tell me if he thinks the entire market is gonna get shyt on or if he thinks he’ll be out of a job.

[Carbonfibre]

boyos the bank I work for is taking in the arse... pray for me

oh man sorry to hear that.

mother phucking vultures

they are doing this on purpose

running short basket on all KRE.


JPM / BAC / Citi / Wells / GS / MS

gonna hold all the phucking banking sector at this rate. rest are phucked.

talk about putting all eggs in one basket / too big to fail.




................................


man the crude futures are phucking crazy.

someone call Opec and ask for production cut.

[RobParks2M]

oh man sorry to hear that.

mother phucking vultures

they are doing this on purpose

running short basket on all KRE.

man the crude futures are phucking crazy.

someone call Opec and ask for production cut.

Wtf is up with crude? Underlying assumption recession is coming and demand will be down? Current inventories are absolutely dumping… majors haven’t moved yet though which is odd. The last couple years the opposite kept happening where crude wouldn’t budge but majors shares would plummet.

[Carbonfibre]

Wtf is up with crude? Underlying assumption recession is coming and demand will be down? Current inventories are absolutely dumping… majors haven’t moved yet though which is odd. The last couple years the opposite kept happening where crude wouldn’t budge but majors shares would plummet.

Seems to be some crude futures manipulation.

5% down day looks to be someone decided to crush crude long buyers.

[RobParks2M]

Seems to be some crude futures manipulation.

5% down day looks to be someone decided to crush crude long buyers.

I bought short term calls thinking crude is pretty coiled. I’ll keep holding they expire early June so I think I’ve still got time.

Edit: sold 100 pacwp @13.9 close to 30% gains I’ll take it. I think I’ll hold long closer to Friday maybe.

[Abzu]

boyos the bank I work for is taking in the arse... pray for me

*** plans to replace 7,800 jobs with AI over time, pauses hiring certain positions
https://arstechnica.com/information-...eplaced-by-ai/



Lol.

Will do <3.

International Business Machines are censored now lol?

Layoffs are rolling in because most expect lower domestic demand.

They will use their savings to prepare for the next boom.

Less chance of not meeting demand is room to play.

This is the perfect time to automate the workplace.

When demand comes back, use labor to fill gaps.

Labor will be desperate and less consequential.



While all that is happening, China is preparing for the next American boom cycle and will be prepared to meet any American demand.

Like I said before, inflation will not be the story of 2023, 2023 will be about growth.

In the long run, deflation will prove to be a bigger problem.



The fed is not going to cut now, they are going to cut after they move rates to where I previously stated with an interim pause.

The market is going to be disappointed if they are expecting cuts right now.

That means it's going down and I don't mean the fed funds rate.

[dopamine72]

What dip? IMO considering that natty gas is back to trading cheaply like pre-war levels and oil itself is range bound 70-80 I think they are over valued above $110. Everything else is trading down, but they’ve held up insanely strong. I think they have had pretty dam solid crack spreads so perhaps that is why they are holding up so strong. Their Stabroek find is insane though. They are flowing value outta there like no one else.

Small down turn from 120 to 110

Was honestly waiting for it to break 120 and keep going but you would know better than me

Would Kinda like to liquidate it all to not miss out on pretty big gainz (already trimmed half)

[Carbonfibre]

I bought short term calls thinking crude is pretty coiled. I’ll keep holding they expire early June so I think I’ve still got time.

Edit: sold 100 pacwp @13.9 close to 30% gains I’ll take it. I think I’ll hold long closer to Friday maybe.

balls of steel on pacw

these phuckers again bought the dip on sp 500.

I had short till lunch on ES took profit and ran.


always find some dog shiit reason to bid up apple/nvda/msft



AI fixes everything

no need for banks

fire everyone

just give all your money to Bill Gates / Jensen / Tim Cook / Bezos

[camaleom]

*** plans to replace 7,800 jobs with AI over time, pauses hiring certain positions
https://arstechnica.com/information-...eplaced-by-ai/

Lol.

Will do <3.

International Business Machines are censored now lol?

actually I am the one researching and designing system(s) to use AI

I gonna called the final system "skynet" for zhits and giggles lol

[Abzu]

actually I am the one researching and designing system(s) to use AI

I gonna called the final system "skynet" for zhits and giggles lol

Well then maybe you should be praying for me lol.

[dopamine72]

I know we've discussed this before, but I always find this entertaining:

[Destor]

oh man sorry to hear that.

mother phucking vultures

they are doing this on purpose

running short basket on all KRE.


JPM / BAC / Citi / Wells / GS / MS

gonna hold all the phucking banking sector at this rate. rest are phucked.

talk about putting all eggs in one basket / too big to fail.




................................


man the crude futures are phucking crazy.

someone call Opec and ask for production cut.

What's interesting is that -- numbers based on a quick Google for more specific numbers to back up already knowing that a huge difference exists -- there are <100 banks in Canada with the five biggest holding almost 90% of the market share while there are almost 5,000 banks in the US.

[RobParks2M]

I’m waiting to see what BAC does. I bet they take over a couple regionals if any more fail. Buffet always has an eye out for opportunities for his favorite companies. Then he can lend said company money for a great synergistic deal.

[SipNPiz]

WTI below $70 again wut

[RobParks2M]

WTI below $70 again wut

At some point White House gotta start filling the reserve again. $60 or 65 seems like a good spot to do so. Just make a blanket announcement that they will make purchases every so often below $70 and then just do it so they don’t pump oil prices constantly.

It’s about time to go round 2 on OXY $55/60 CSP again. I have a decent amount of CSP exposure so I’ll probably go $55 in hopes of not getting exercised. Buffet hasn’t let me down yet

[Destor]

At some point White House gotta start filling the reserve again. $60 or 65 seems like a good spot to do so. Just make a blanket announcement that they will make purchases every so often below $70 and then just do it so they don’t pump oil prices constantly.

It’s about time to go round 2 on OXY $55/60 CSP again. I have a decent amount of CSP exposure so I’ll probably go $55 in hopes of not getting exercised. Buffet hasn’t let me down yet

Have you seen any of the interviews this year with Buffett and Munger? To be like them at 90-100 years old, just insane

[RobParks2M]

Have you seen any of the interviews this year with Buffett and Munger? To be like them at 90-100 years old, just insane

I haven’t seen this years. I watched some from last year and they both seemed as sharp as ever. I find it odd they are still sitting on their mountain of cash. If they still haven’t found deals they like I’m guessing they foresee better deals yet to come so I’ve been trying to pace myself as well. I’ve traded quite a bit the last month or so but mostly just entering and exiting quickly to maintain some cash on hand. Hell even the fnma shares I bought are more or less stable so I’ve added there and if need be I can exit with <5% loss of opportunity arises.


Also odd question but say I sell and make $5,000 on something I’ve held for a year then sell something for $5,000 profit I held for a week then take a $9,000 loss to tax loss harvest will I automatically just pay taxes on the long term stuff or is there a way in which to sell the long term stuff so I pay the capital gains tax on the $1,000 vs paying the short term taxes on the $1,000?

[Destor]

Tax implications there are something I'm personally not overly familiar with

Seeing some attribute the oil price pressure to the debt ceiling risks

[RobParks2M]

Tax implications there are something I'm personally not overly familiar with

Seeing some attribute the oil price pressure to the debt ceiling risks

I member when $70 oil sent XOM into the $80-90 range. I think they got some room to drop. I’m horrified for my small cap holdings, but not gonna hedge just yet.

Also if fed wanted to de-risk and create some $$ for the treasury they could push Fannie/Freddie back to public markets and exercise their warrants. Could likely net $50b…

[Carbonfibre]

Today is FOMC.

Fed is gonna do 25BPS to bring rates to 500 BPS.


This is all priced in so nothing burger.


However the big boy is the press conference where Jerome can cause some type of sell today by saying Fed rates will remain high till end of year.

If Jerome says pause and doesn't say anything about longer term rates than market will pump.

[RobParks2M]

Today is FOMC.

Fed is gonna do 25BPS to bring rates to 500 BPS.


This is all priced in so nothing burger.


However the big boy is the press conference where Jerome can cause some type of sell today by saying Fed rates will remain high till end of year.

If Jerome says pause and doesn't say anything about longer term rates than market will pump.

Hopefully he’s learned to leave wiggle room. Something like we are seeing dramatic effect from our full year of hikes. We will reassess various data points before our next meeting to see if a further hike will be necessary otherwise we plan to hold rates.

[Carbonfibre]

25bps it is.

Could have seen this from space that it was going to happen.

They removed language of more hikes in press release.


Now comes the big part will Jerome have the balls to say we are pausing here and holding rates here till end of year.

market will sell on that.


or


will he say dependent on data and market pumps.

[Elias373]

nothing burger

[Destor]

Haven't read the minutes but the speech certainly wasn't a commitment to a pause, mostly just more data dependency

Whether it's a pause or there are another couple 0.25 bps hikes feels far less significant than whether rates are coming down in friggin two to four months, which I don't think there's any chance of and would lean much more into the idea that we won't see very low interest rates again for some time and that current deglobalization trends will be inflationary over the medium and longer term.

[RobParks2M]

How bad are retail investors gonna flip when dividends get axed? 🤔

[taf1968]

JPow basically said they might be done . . . but might not be. They'll look at the data. They no longer foresee a recession, but don't hold your breath for a rate cut.

Markets dropped after he made the comment about cuts not expected.

[Carbonfibre]

JPow basically said they might be done . . . but might not be. They'll look at the data. They no longer foresee a recession, but don't hold your breath for a rate cut.

Markets dropped after he made the comment about cuts not expected.

Nailed it.

That last sentence was the sell off.


Bond guys said mferr when he said doesn't see rate cuts.

Don't worry by next week those idiot bond guys will start pricing in cuts again.

[RobParks2M]

More opportunity to pick up ZIM at rock bottom prices

I’ve been selling SABS warrants at anything above 10 cents for the last couple days so you can hop back in at 6 cents. Not sure who tf is buying here, but I’m doing my best to push them down for you . Although I’m nervous because I keep forgetting to sell lifo. I hope since it’s a wash sale(bought a bunch at 4.5 cents like 1-2 weeks ago) that I can keep lots from last year so I can get the 15% cap gains tax instead of short term. Probably doesn’t work like that though right?

@carbon I think anyone holding bank bonds or preferred for regionals are saying Phuk this and are exiting right and left. Could score some good deals if you can handle the stress. I imagine this is the last thing banks wanted to see they are the ones trying to convince fed to cut.

[Carbonfibre]

^^^^

There is huge fight going on between Fed and Market under the surface.

Big funds want to blow up all regional banks so the Fed starts cutting rates and turns on printer.

Its pretty clear this is hit job.

May not look like it with SP 500 doing phuck all trading sideways for 2 months now.


**** is brewing.



Another regional bank bites the dust.

Pacwest after hours with the news bomb they are looking to sell.


Someone call JP Morgan.