**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[taf1968]

25 points it is.

[Destor]

Medium-term rate expectations look increased to me compared to the December meeting

[taf1968]

Updated dot plot . . .

[Destor]

Page 9 is a good one too, would post a screenshot but am away from the computer right now

Most everything moved to the right

[Abzu]

It feels tense in here.

[dopamine72]

I bought to close stuff for <$5/contract for April just didn’t wanna wait. But oil almost always goes up for the summer and $70 is government floor so I feel good about a temporary floor here. I like my OXY $55 CSP still.
Bought 30 Sept $2c for CANO at $10/each which seemed like a bargain if they get a $4 buyout. Got some Jan 24 $2c for $15.

I'll hold my XOM position then, will trim if it goes over $120, riding only profits on it now

We had a discussion earlier about how interesting it is that the strategic petroleum reserve is not getting filled, despite that the biden admin said they would refill once fuel prices hit $70. Have been bullish on oil for last 3 yrs, but now thinking time to turn into a bear (no homo).
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier...h=3d44db3a514e
Yeah hard to play catchup. Its like someone deciding to save for retirement when they are 50 yrs old.
Fed needs to stop being reactive. Should have stopped QE in early 2021, started small rate hikes mid 2021 as well as QT.

Biden didn't allow a handful of new drilling contracts yea

To me that shows they're trying to articificially inflate oil prices, probably because there is a war going on so that in itself will make these slime balls more money

Prices of a gallon of gas have only started dropping even though barrels of oil have been sub$80 for a loooong time. House prices have hardly budged even though interest rates have doubled. Rents going up only slightly but still up. Bottom end jobs going up slowly pushes everything else up. Lots of union contracts locked in for 3-5 years confirming wages will grow at 5% clip if not more across various industries.

Fed gotta do the economy dirty this summer or inflation isn’t going to go away. This banking thing isn’t the fed’s problem. Banks can and should go under if they are incapable of calculating risk properly and maintaining a reasonable cash cushion. Banks have been doing everything as if rate cuts are coming because they are trying to force the fed to cut due to their poor business decisions.

What do you think the best appreciating assets will be the next 5 years out?

Holy moly nvda $270..

Hellyeahmothefuker.jpg

We gon hit a new ATH this year?

[RobParks2M]

I'll hold my XOM position then, will trim if it goes over $120, riding only profits on it now

Biden didn't allow a handful of new drilling contracts yea

To me that shows they're trying to articificially inflate oil prices, probably because there is a war going on so that in itself will make these slime balls more money


What do you think the best appreciating assets will be the next 5 years out?


Hellyeahmothefuker.jpg

We gon hit a new ATH this year?

I feel good about grocery stores and health care(primary care/urgent care). Needless to say I don’t feel great about a lot of sectors.

I looked at stress test results and it kinda made me cringe for some big banks. MS and GS didn’t look… ideal.

[Destor]

I think energy/O&G will continue to outperform relative to the broader market if we do remain in an environment of higher rates for longer regardless of what the bond market wants to believe

Mature companies with lots of cash flow today will be where it's at

[Carbonfibre]

In case you need to know what just happened today on close.

Jerome didn't say anything that was out of line.

Said regional banking sector should be fine.

The dot plots stayed same as December they didn't change it.






However 20 minutes before market close Janet Yellen did interview and said no they will not guarantee other banks going under deposits via FDIC.

KRE ETF started tanking hard.

FRC bank hit limit down again.

BTC took massive shiit right away.


Market there fore sold off.

[Lefticle]

In case you need to know what just happened today on close.

Jerome didn't say anything that was out of line.

Said regional banking sector should be fine.

The dot plots stayed same as December they didn't change it.






However 20 minutes before market close Janet Yellen did interview and said no they will not guarantee other banks going under deposits via FDIC.

KRE ETF started tanking hard.

FRC bank hit limit down again.

BTC took massive shiit right away.


Market there fore sold off.

[RobParks2M]

In case you need to know what just happened today on close.

Jerome didn't say anything that was out of line.

Said regional banking sector should be fine.

The dot plots stayed same as December they didn't change it.






However 20 minutes before market close Janet Yellen did interview and said no they will not guarantee other banks going under deposits via FDIC.

KRE ETF started tanking hard.

FRC bank hit limit down again.

BTC took massive shiit right away.


Market there fore sold off.

Yellen is a clueless idiot whose word means nothing. Like how they weren’t gonna do anything for SVB then 30 mins to an hour later suddenly they were covering all deposits.

[Carbonfibre]

Yellen is a clueless idiot whose word means nothing. Like how they weren’t gonna do anything for SVB then 30 mins to an hour later suddenly they were covering all deposits.

The other day they floated idea to cover deposits for every bank and cost calculated was $17 trillion.

I think today what they did was walk back this statement because there is too much money in markets still.

Fed doesn't want market pumping or crashing.

They would love if SP 500 sat all year around 4000 level.



Markets are too frothy.

You can see it how fast they ran up Bitcoin cause speculation rampant.

Today they rug pulled it again.

[Destor]

I think the distribution of the dots did change a bit, mostly moving to the right except for perhaps the 2025 projections. I believe there was one less participant in this one and we don't know who moved where so there is a bit of lacking clarity, but otherwise



But considering the market flipped from accepting higher for longer to believing strong rate cuts are coming after the next meeting and none of that is what the Fed believes, no change seems bearish relative to what the market believes

[Schnitzl]

Yellen is a clueless idiot whose word means nothing. Like how they weren’t gonna do anything for SVB then 30 mins to an hour later suddenly they were covering all deposits.

It's easy to write off someone just saying they know nothing but, objectively, she knows exactly what is going on. Either because she is being nudged towards a situation or it is the best out of bad choices in the long run. Of course there are people who give 0 fuchs about anyone but I doubt most go to sleep at night thinking "how can I fuk up the world economy tomorrow"

[Carbonfibre]

market doesn't believe that though.

nothing changed / market thinks something else blowing up apart from regional banks.

one more hike coming and than its cut again.

It's easy to write off someone just saying they know nothing but, objectively, she knows exactly what is going on. Either because she is being nudged towards a situation or it is the best out of bad choices in the long run. Of course there are people who give 0 fuchs about anyone but I doubt most go to sleep at night thinking "how can I fuk up the world economy tomorrow"

SIBV failure and its ties to crypto caused speculation to go rampant. Market got instant bid especially in speculative names crpto / high growth.

Than fed balance sheet going up was also form of QE.

They clearly regretting the statement saying all bank deposits will be insured for every failing bank. Hence walking back that statement today.

Its pretty clear Fed doesn't want market going up or down.

Make it trade here in this range till Dec and inflation goes away and they get soft landing.

Think it will be impossible to do so.

You can see how much rage fit wall street throws if Fed says we staying the course till job on inflation is done.


Stock market is 100 percent rigged.

You need something to go your way just sell in size.

Need to pump it just get few analyst to go on tv talk about it.

Driven by algorithms that trade in milliseconds / news driven.

90% of it is all done by computers now.

[Destor]

At this point I’m pretty skeptical the bank issues will even have much of a deflationary impact. I’m seeing an uptick in garbage crypto spam/scam emails and more of it on social media, that’s coming from somewhere.

Market pumped hard, crypto pumped hard, there’s still too much cash floating around.

Wage increases still coming in these parts of the real economy that employ huge numbers of people and who have seen stagnant wages for like a decade.

Deglobalization still ramping up and will be inflationary in nature as cost efficiency in the global economy reduces and is replaced by concerns around national security and eating the costs associated with all that, moving things out of China, building new infrastructure in areas with higher labour costs and more onerous regulation.

[RobParks2M]

It's easy to write off someone just saying they know nothing but, objectively, she knows exactly what is going on. Either because she is being nudged towards a situation or it is the best out of bad choices in the long run. Of course there are people who give 0 fuchs about anyone but I doubt most go to sleep at night thinking "how can I fuk up the world economy tomorrow"

I disagree. She is suffering some sort of disconnect where she isn’t aware of what others in the fed are doing. My example is proof of exactly that. She says one thing then 1 hr later the complete opposite happens.

[RobParks2M]

ARK just loaded up on square… then Hindenburg dropped their short report and crashed Shares 18% LOL

[usersignup2]

I disagree. She is suffering some sort of disconnect where she isn’t aware of what others in the fed are doing. My example is proof of exactly that. She says one thing then 1 hr later the complete opposite happens.

maybe they just hate that b1tch and feed her bs to make her look like a fool.

[RobParks2M]

maybe they just hate that b1tch and feed her bs to make her look like a fool.

It’s hysterical because she just loaded coin too. Both picks down 20%

[Carbonfibre]

how bad is bank of america? like bottom tier shiit?

this is 250B market cap bank.

pretty serious move down.

they shouldn't be at risk of bank run.

[RobParks2M]

how bad is bank of america? like bottom tier shiit?

this is 250B market cap bank.

pretty serious move down.

they shouldn't be at risk of bank run.

I’m very confident in them only because buffet has a large interest in them continuing to exist. They are down about the same 2-3% all the banks are down.

[Venom08]

Wow, markets take another chitter with two hours to close again.

[RobParks2M]

I’ll tell you now which bank fails next. Just sold to open $5p FRC exp May for $1.75 ayyy lmao max risk is minimal but potential for free money

[Elias373]

imagine having money in a bank and not invested into PLTR

[usersignup2]

imagine having money in a bank and not invested into PLTR

I know that you do this just to troll but realistically PLTR I would not invest in it. I was in and then got out at a loss for tax harvest. The simple reason is it has no forseeable ability to scale. That will limit longterm growth and revenue. Maybe in 10-15 years when it has enough defense contracts under their belt but imo there's better growth plays.

[RobParks2M]

I know that you do this just to troll but realistically PLTR I would not invest in it. I was in and then got out at a loss for tax harvest. The simple reason is it has no forseeable ability to scale. That will limit longterm growth and revenue. Maybe in 10-15 years when it has enough defense contracts under their belt but imo there's better growth plays.

Like FRC

[Carbonfibre]

see these odds

next day after Fed bond market again saying nope, you will be cutting in July and fast.

market throwing fit

stock market cannot function without low interest rate

there is no way around it.

inflation not a problem what stock market is saying give us fed *******.

if regular middle class suffers we don't care

[Destor]

Hope springs eternal, it’s far more common for things to be overvalued than find them undervalued, etc etc

[camaleom]

NVDA baby /enough said

my long term account is looking pretty