**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread: Part XVI -- BAG HOLDING EDITION

[RobParks2M]

Had a meeting with the guys in charge of lending at my FI, they are considering giving a discount on existing variable rate helocs because they are projecting we will forclose of too many homes this year

Oh lawwwwd lol. Canada is truly fukt tho

Edit: on the variable rate thing I mean.

[Abzu]

Anyone wanna offer a range on CPI tomorrow?

I'll start it off with a tight range of 6.1 to 6.3.

Please state your range and what it means.

[Abzu]

No one?







You guy will miss me when I'm gone.







Thank you for the coffee and donuts Marsellus <3.

[Destor]

Oh lawwwwd lol. Canada is truly fukt tho

Edit: on the variable rate thing I mean.

It shouldn't be, every mortgage coming up for renewal this year and beyond would have been stress-tested at rates much higher than what was actually available -- the BoC knew what was coming.

Our borrowing power has effectively been throttled since 2018, only getting approved for the amount passing through the stress test rather than 1.xx%

[hardestgainer]

Oh lawwwwd lol. Canada is truly fukt tho

Edit: on the variable rate thing I mean.

This is in regard to Idaho, we are the largest mortgage lender in the state. Idaho has also had the most overvalued housing prices on the nation, back to back years. This entire states housing market is going to collapse

https://amp.idahostatesman.com/news/...262478187.html

[RobParks2M]

This is in regard to Idaho, we are the largest mortgage lender in the state. Idaho has also had the most overvalued housing prices on the nation, back to back years. This entire states housing market is going to collapse

https://amp.idahostatesman.com/news/...262478187.html

No it shouldn’t. 3% interest will keep people afloat. It’s kinda the same as more average prices with higher interest I would think. But yeah foreclosures will probably go up. I think it’ll be sustainable otherwise I wouldn’t buy fnma stuff lmao

[Destor]

In Canada you've needed to qualify for a mortgage by passing through a stress test at high 4% or 5%+ even if the actual rate you're getting is <2%, lowest stress test rate to date has been 4.79% and that was when the 5-year fixed rate was as low as 1.39%


HELOCs have long seemed like the biggest risk as house values have blown up, especially in the hot speculative markets, making people more inclined to take out loans against those gains

[mulletwarrior]

Anyone wanna offer a range on CPI tomorrow?

I'll start it off with a tight range of 6.1 to 6.3.

Please state your range and what it means.

I think consensus expectation is 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. But IIRC, I think some local fed chair hinted about a positive surprise? I'm going to guess 0.2% M/M and 5.3% Y/Y

[Abzu]

I think consensus expectation is 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. But IIRC, I think some local fed chair hinted about a positive surprise? I'm going to guess 0.2% M/M and 5.3% Y/Y

Not talking core, I'm talking about the scarier, larger number.

CPI is expected to be 6% YoY.

Thanks.

[SipNPiz]

Oil and energy has gone up the past few months curious what the number comes in at tomorrow.

[Carbonfibre]

it will be 6% y/y

core 0.4%

pretty sure Biden slipped it out last week saying inflation report is looking optimistic.





made me lol

[NestBrah]

it will be 6% y/y

core 0.4%

pretty sure Biden slipped it out last week saying inflation report is looking optimistic.





made me lol

USD getting crushed tomorrow?

[Carbonfibre]

USD getting crushed tomorrow?

that will come next week with FOMC

what ever Jerome decides.

25BPS hike USD stops drilling

pause yeah USD phucked

rate cut USD super phucked


some idiots banks now saying that Fed will do rate cut next week -25bps just LOL

[NestBrah]

that will come next week with FOMC

what ever Jerome decides.

25BPS hike USD stops drilling

pause yeah USD phucked

rate cut USD super phucked


some idiots banks now saying that Fed will do rate cut next week -25bps just LOL

25BPS still seems likely based on Powell's comments last week.

You think this could cause the USD to bounce back above 105/106?

[taf1968]

that will come next week with FOMC

what ever Jerome decides.

25BPS hike USD stops drilling

pause yeah USD phucked

rate cut USD super phucked


some idiots banks now saying that Fed will do rate cut next week -25bps just LOL

No way in hell they actually cut.

I don't even put much creedence in the idea of a pause this early. I think they go the 25 no matter what and then they'll pay lip service to banks needing to be more responsible with their procedures and risk mitigation, etc.

[im2manly]

It is dumb that I have to post in order to subscribe to this thread. That is all.

[RobParks2M]

It is dumb that I have to post in order to subscribe to this thread. That is all.

Too bad we are about to start a new one

[Destor]

It sounds like banks are suggesting lending standards and amount of lending will tighten up as a result of all this and do part of the Fed’s job, and they’re legit fearful of what more could come thus are very much hoping the rate hikes will stop.

[camaleom]

people at the office were freaken out yesterday - specially the older ones that are looking at retiring in the next few years. The stock lost a ton of value so their RSU/Stocks and 401k are ugly af

Biden front run the market telling people about CPI numbers - I bought spy calls yesterday so let see how it plays out

[camaleom]

people at the office were freaken out yesterday - specially the older ones that are looking at retiring in the next few years. The stock lost a ton of value so their RSU/Stocks and 401k are ugly af

Biden front run the market telling people about CPI numbers - I bought spy calls yesterday so let see how it plays out

and ty very much Biden easy money

[Abzu]

and ty very much Biden easy money

Market was going to rally even at 6.3%.

Good job calling 6 CarbonFibre.

<3.

[Destor]

Inflation Reduction Act doing its job to bring real new manufacturing investment back to our shores: Volkswagen building its first-ever North American battery plant in Ontario. To qualify for both manufacturing credits and the $7500 consumer credit on EVs, batteries need to be manufactured in North America and components + critical battery minerals need to come from North America or countries the US has Free Trade agreements with.

It'll be interesting to see what Europe does in response to the IRA, because right now this is pulling capital towards us. And next up will be Hyundai/Kia/Genesis group in South Korea.

[camaleom]

the more than China keep up with the bs the more we are going to keep attracting investment back to US/Canada and some of the other countries.

[Destor]

the more than China keep up with the bs the more we are going to keep attracting investment back to US/Canada and some of the other countries.

Definitely, Inflation Reduction Act in particular is all about pulling the battery supply chain out of China as they currently have a borderline monopoly on it.

Battery minerals will be the real challenge

[hardestgainer]

Meta announces 10k in layoffs and Zuck says there will likely be more due to economy.


BRB up 7% on the day

[RobParks2M]

bullish as fuk.

bad time to enter tech tho..

Lol the funniest is the sheer number of people who worked at FB and other tech companies from home and juggled 3 jobs working a collective 20-40 hours a week making $200k at each “job”.

Ruh roo they caught on.

[RobParks2M]

I think that lifestyle isn't even a purely tech phenomenon anymore.. when I left my last employer the person who replaced me said they didn't leave their last job which was also remote. Pissed me off because I did the ethical thing and left my remote job for the new one. Otherwise I could've had two jobs pulling in $275k. Surprised more companies don't check productivity or anything, tons of money is being wasted on these workers (and I'm guilty of it too, except I actually provide value while doing it).

I mean I’ve got 2 jobs too, but one is strictly being “on call” 7pm-7am and the other is a daytime operation. Honestly if I thought I could swing it I’d have 2 daytime jobs but honestly I put in enough effort I don’t think I could get everything done for 2 jobs plus daytime I gotta be available all the time basically 9-9 for my staff to reach me. Honestly if there was another health system and they offered me a similar overnight gig I’d consider it. Although that would mean I probably couldn’t ever just have a drink LOL

[bsmit107]

Is it "too soon junior" to start buying a little heavier or do we still have a ways to fall?

Thinking we still have a ways down to go but would also like to get some extra shares at a discount while we're here.

[baroni01]

Credit Suisse down 20, saudis out, trade halted

[Carbonfibre]

yeah CS is done

this called limit down on many euro banks




also PPI / retail sales missed by country mile

WTI diving under $70 (not good)


demand destruction doing its thing

guess fed is winning



set alarm clock early and went short ES futures.