I think some of us should spend a little more time thinking about this question. It's going to hit a lot of people very hard.
In about 3 hours, I am looking at a few acres of land. What are you guys doing, if anything? Is anyone concerned about the end of the petrodollar? Does anyone think it's a wild conspiracy to even discuss?
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03-19-2022, 04:24 AM #1
Post Petrodollar USA: What happens?
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
- Arthur Schopenhauer
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03-19-2022, 04:36 AM #2
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03-19-2022, 04:45 AM #3
I don't know. it is one of those issues I don't know enough information on. Don't sound good though. Imagine it could hurt Americans quality of life if it happened.
If Biden ruins the American currency, Arabia uses the Yuan instead of the dollar for trading, then the US dollar would be in less demand. The oil trade is worth trillion of dollars. The value of the dollar drops, making goods imported into the country more expensive.
I can imagine though the situation is more complicated than this. Saudi Arabia for example pegs their currency to the dollar. If the dollar falls in value then the Arabian currency falls in value also. there is also the issue of Arabia owning a lot of US treasures. This helps finance our American government and our countries government expenses. Equally it provides Arabia some interest income and a safe place to park their money. If US treasures become less valuable than Arabia loses money on their investment.
i don't know. Maybe I'm thinking this out wrong.
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03-19-2022, 05:25 AM #4
I don't know if there will be a single currency moving forward. Already India and Russia worked out an oil deal using their own respective currencies.
Also, while Biden is awful, corrupt, senile and a war monger -- this has been a long time coming. His policies may have just contributed and sped up the process, if it happens on his watch or not. Fingering him for the blame, as in all of it, that is unfair.
Our dollars will drastically lose value, should this happens. A lot of countries sit on stockpiles of dollars to trade in oil and have just used the dollar to trade in most everything. They will dump them and their buying power will drastically drop. The standard of living in the US has been propped up by this and it will come crashing down.
On the bright side, if the Congress/Senate is sane at all, which they often tend not to be, but if there were -- they would stop spending immediately on foreign aid and our bloated military budget. That budget and all those bases all over the world serve to entice/bully countries into keeping the dollar and as Saudi Arabia's personal army. A lot of the conflicts we've been in lately have been about the dollar. Sadam and Gadafi both wanted to get away from the dollar and we coincidentally went after both and destroyed their countries.
Worst case scenario, congress is addicted to spending, doubles the military budget so that we still spend the same level of buying power, print more money, make the dollar even more worthless, more countries drop even more dollars and the American people are sent back to the middle ages. We are starving, spending $25 on a loaf of bread and they're still sending billions overseas, even more, because the dollar is all the weaker, so they just print up twice/three-times or however many more to compensate. They also triple their salaries, of course.All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
- Arthur Schopenhauer
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03-19-2022, 06:20 AM #5
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03-19-2022, 07:06 AM #6
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03-19-2022, 07:10 AM #7
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03-19-2022, 07:49 AM #8
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03-19-2022, 08:00 AM #9
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03-19-2022, 08:30 AM #10
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03-19-2022, 08:34 AM #11
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03-19-2022, 08:35 AM #12
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03-19-2022, 08:40 AM #13
A digital “currency” is implemented. This is almost certainly already being planned and worked towards. As this happens the people who control the flow of it will have more and more power over citizens and society as a whole. No way to tell how fast the implementation will occur or where it will end, but we can be sure that it will decrease the amount of control people have over their own lives. Imagine when social media giants or governments freeze accounts to certain people for supporting the wrong cause or even just “wrong speak”. It could be as bad as complete authoritarian control where you are only allowed to buy certain things based on your actions and money is frozen for any number of transgressions, or it could start out only slightly different than our current system. Either way, it will only move in one direction once it is put into place, and that is more control for the machine and less freedom for individual citizens. And I’d also bet that there will be lots of discomfort pushed on the population in order to make the acceptance of it go more smoothly.
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03-19-2022, 09:00 AM #14
There is no imminent dollar collapse or similar. The USD:EUR have been very stable for 30 years now. The ruble however is faltering. The Russian web brigades and their many associated propaganda websites posing as 'news websites' have been pushing the 'imminent dollar collapse' since they started when Putin came into office.
The only real competition in the future is the Chinese yuan and most likely what will happen is that they'll just stabilize against one another. Most people outside of SE Asia still want the dollar and to learn English.
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03-19-2022, 09:54 AM #15
I'm very much a neophyte WRT to this, but aren't there essentially two scenarios here?
First, a new currency takes the role as currency for all oil transactions. So the dollar is just replaced with another currency which doesn't elicit really dramatic effects, depending on the currency. As an example, substitute USD for CHF, then nothing much changes. That's a fairly predictable and marked-traded currency and you retain a sturdy platform for all transactions.
But of course, switch to the Yuan which is not a freely tradable currency, the story changes dramatically. This would give China political leverage over all transactions in the oil industry, and that's pretty chitty for obvious reasons. Not likely to downright implausible, though.
But they could abandon using only one currency as the gold standard, life continues, but now the oil economy is very volatile. Fluctuations in prices would be constant and palpable, and hit consumers pretty hard.Back off, Warchild.
Seriously.
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03-19-2022, 10:13 AM #16
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03-19-2022, 11:16 AM #17
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03-19-2022, 11:30 AM #18
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03-19-2022, 12:06 PM #19Battlefield 8 fan
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03-19-2022, 12:18 PM #20
OP.
Why is any type of plausible thought or outcome considered conspiracy to you?
Given everything that is going on in the sphere of geopolitics, why is the perceived end of dollar hegemony a conspiracy?
The dollar is a risk asset. Why would any country want to be bound by the dollar, when the US can take reserves away any time the treasury wants?
Any rational country or countries would be trying to get out of that type of system, which is happening as we speak.
You do realize that no currency throughout recorded history has lasted forever.
Was every other currency that collapsed throughout history a conspiracy?"I am a rational animal who occupies the intermediary position between angel and beast"
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**Summer Walker Crew**
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03-19-2022, 12:24 PM #21
If the US becomes energy independent then the petrodollar will end. The reason the US currency became the petrodollar is because the US bought the most of it. The significance of the petrodollar isn't as significant as it used to be. Still, we will still buy what we need in dollars and the world will continue accepting US Dollars. Yes there are problems with it, but it's not as bad as anyone else's money.
So China is a major buyer of oil now, and some countries will take their yuan for oil but probably at a lower rate because you are a fool to trust Chinese currency because the bank is controlled/owned by the government there and they manipulate it constantly. However Biden's printing of money in all these spending bills is a manipulation as well and doesn't help us.
Now we have crypto and everything else. Don't be surprised if down the road in all this madness they don't go back to gold or some other type of material that can't just be "created".
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03-19-2022, 12:33 PM #22
So in this scenario, what replaces the USD? You could denominate in yuan but China is more opaque, more authoritarian and more apt to apply social conformity than the US, so that's not a good choice. Maybe in 20 years time when China has fully surpassed the US it might be, but as long as its a dictatorship, there are advantages to a free market currency - note that the yuan by definition is artificially priced since its a fixed currency. Currently the most credible rival is the Euro and there's no compelling incentive to retool everyone's banking systems to suit Berlin. In reality what's going to happen over the medium term is that with the slide of the US from global hyperpower, various countries will hedge their bets by holding some of their sovereign wealth that would have been in USD, in other currencies. The demise of the petrodollar will be a long time coming.
"A stupid man's report of what a clever man says can never be accurate, because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand."
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03-19-2022, 12:39 PM #23
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03-19-2022, 12:40 PM #24
Biden’s incompetence dealing with the Saudis will likely have serious repercussions for the dollar, our economy, the US’ position in the Middle East, and nuclear proliferation. His professed posture toward the Saudis as reflecting his disapproval of their human rights position is belied by his abject pursuit of a deal with Iran which has continually violated human rights and promoted terrorism. Just one more fiasco to chalk up to the Delaware Dope’s incompetence and bad judgment.
Some 80% of global oil sales are priced in U.S. dollars, the yuan is not freely convertible as a reserve currency must be, and Saudi Arabia’s currency, the riyal, is pegged to the dollar. Saudi Arabia committed in 1974 to conduct its oil trade only in dollars, in exchange for security guarantees from Washington. The illegitimate Biden Administration has undermined that relationship at every turn, and by all accounts the Saudis are fed up. The dollar is one step closer to getting dethroned as reserve currency.
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03-19-2022, 01:00 PM #25
They figured that out along time ago, Mazda built a prototype hydrogen ICE RX-8 20 years ago and we have hydrogen fuel cells in cars and buses for public transit The only real caveat to a Hydrogen ICE vehicle is the neccesity for forged internals increasing build costs. It is essentially the exact same technology in modern ICE vehicles on the fuel source is swapped
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03-19-2022, 01:07 PM #26
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03-19-2022, 01:34 PM #29
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03-19-2022, 01:42 PM #30
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