How many USA Coronavirus deaths by 5/1?

[JUSA]

Poll incoming...

[Dave22reborn]

Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.

[JUSA]

Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.

Aggressive, aggressively low prediction at that, although I predict your prediction will end up being closer than some of the more dire ones being bandied about.

A fun bb.com option would be an Auto-Bump option on a certain date, such as 5/1 here, but hopefully I or someone recalls to do this - assuming some of the more outspoken people put their opinions where their keyboard where their mouth is and actually vote.

For the record, I voted 2-20K, probably somewhere in the middle but policy-wise I think with human lives you err on the side of caution and haven't been against most of the quarantining thus far for the most part. Here, end of March, I'm starting to think people not at risk or who have already known for sure to have gotten and recovered from it, those types need to intelligently think strongly about being allowed to re-enter the workforce. Maintaining social distancing when possible, not doing anything elective that might expose them, etc..

[Chowboy]

Well, considering the "other" flu has taken out over 20K and I believe (??) we actually have a vaccine for it, I guessed the upper range.


Really, really hope I'm wrong.

[Dave22reborn]

Aggressive, aggressively low prediction at that, although I predict your prediction will end up being closer than some of the more dire ones being bandied about.

A fun bb.com option would be an Auto-Bump option on a certain date, such as 5/1 here, but hopefully I or someone recalls to do this - assuming some of the more outspoken people put their opinions where their keyboard where their mouth is and actually vote.

Maybe 5,000. Once again, 99.9% will be the elderly who were on the verge of death. Media will say, "BREAKING NEWS!"

Trolls like Sillie, Z4V4, Tammy, Trapstar, Isingmodel, etc, will gloat. Mr. 50/50 will say, "Who's gloating?"

[kcadrenalin]

Less than 5k but it's going to be hard to get the real number because a lot of flu related deaths will be lumped in with the covid number.

[Slayermanlet]

Depends very much on government policy and where the actual peak turns out to be (could be now, could be in six weeks)

I'd go with the middle of the range. But nothing would please me more to be totally wrong and Dave correct

[Reliance012]

Without question over 5k. I’m a hopeful believer that warm weather and the measures we’ve taken will help, a lot. Between 2 and 20k, probably around 15k.

Would’ve easily surpassed 100k had we done nothing.

[JUSA]

Well, considering the "other" flu has taken out over 20K and I believe (??) we actually have a vaccine for it, I guessed the upper range.


Really, really hope I'm wrong.

Keep in mind I said 5/1, which isn't likely to be even close to the ending date of this, even I won't hazard a guess on how long this one is out there spreading about. All the current social distancing/quarantining are (intentionally) lengthening the time frame there, so that the medical system isn't run over by a rush at any given time, hopefully. Honestly, I think it could be going on as long as end of year and the end death toll will probably far outpace the 20k Flu by a good margin, simply because it is likely deadlier, it does spread easier and there is no herd immunity or current vaccine.

[Dave22reborn]

Depends very much on government policy and where the actual peak turns out to be (could be now, could be in six weeks)

I'd go with the middle of the range. But nothing would please me more to be totally wrong and Dave correct

Government policy?

[Slayermanlet]

Government policy?

Yes?

[Chowboy]

Keep in mind I said 5/1, which isn't likely to be even close to the ending date of this, even I won't hazard a guess on how long this one is out there spreading about. All the current social distancing/quarantining are (intentionally) lengthening the time frame there, so that the medical system isn't run over by a rush at any given time, hopefully. Honestly, I think it could be going on as long as end of year and the end death toll will probably far outpace the 20k Flu by a good margin, simply because it is likely deadlier, it does spread easier and there is no herd immunity or current vaccine.

Well crap. Need to adjust my guess way down.

[Dave22reborn]

Yes?

Like what?

[kcadrenalin]

and there is no herd immunity

Has that been definitively proven?

[JUSA]

Would’ve easily surpassed 100k had we done nothing.

We'll see. Wonder what Italy will be like on 5/1, which is a good barometer for 'doing nothing', if you round out their initial utter failure and only doing anything after it had already gotten out of control and overtaxed their weak healthcare infrastructure.

They have a smaller population, but if it's around 20-25K by May 1, perhaps your 100K prediction might hold some water (although who knows, they seem to be completely out of control, it's probably unreasonable to draw any kind of parallel to them in any capacity)

[JoshSP1985]

Has that been definitively proven?

No but I believe some anti-body testing is happening to try to determine if there is some gen pop immunity already.

[JUSA]

Has that been definitively proven?

Nope, hasn't.

[wincel]

need to see historic death data for last 2 weeks to predict.

At current rates, most of the US should have been infected by then and the virus should have run its course mostly. I'll say 1M-2M.

[kcadrenalin]

No but I believe some anti-body testing is happening to try to determine if there is some gen pop immunity already.

These are the results I'm waiting for. Will be interesting to see how many people have or had and don't even know it.

[BearyManilowe]

Somewhere between 5-10k is where my head is. I know this thing can spread like wildfire and I know Americans are generally useless (my company for instance is still calling ourselves "essential" by some loose definition of what it is we provide) but I just don't see it going much further beyond that. The largest majority (60%+) of those deaths will be those over 60+ and then that would likely expand to 75% if you include people with pre-existing conditions (auto-immune disorders, asthma, etc.).

Hopefully I'm shooting high and the number is lower but for now I think that's a solid estimate.

[Slayermanlet]

Like what?

As in..... The death rate will depend on govt policy. What isn't clear?

[Reliance012]

We'll see. Wonder what Italy will be like on 5/1, which is a good barometer for 'doing nothing', if you round out their initial utter failure and only doing anything after it had already gotten out of control and overtaxed their weak healthcare infrastructure.

They have a smaller population, but if it's around 20-25K by May 1, perhaps your 100K prediction might hold some water (although who knows, they seem to be completely out of control, it's probably unreasonable to draw any kind of parallel to them in any capacity)

The lockdowns enacted by Italy saved them. It’s why their curve flattened. They are absolutely not an example of doing nothing.

[Audioslave]

Are we talking about only confirmed cases or what will end up being the estimate of deaths?

[Dave22reborn]

As in..... The death rate will depend on govt policy. What isn't clear?

What government policy?

[wincel]

Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.

It's going to be 3k within a week.

[Reliance012]

Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.

We’ll be at 3k in under a week.

Edit: wizard ^^

[iabs]

Maybe 3,000. 99.9% of them will be the elderly who were in the verge of death before they were infected.

this.

And we better be locked down for another month after that just to be safe, fuk the economy, we breadlines now.

[Lefticle]

need to see historic death data for last 2 weeks to predict.

At current rates, most of the US should have been infected by then and the virus should have run its course mostly. I'll say 1M-2M.

Quoting for future reference lol

[Dave22reborn]

We’ll be at 3k in under a week.

Edit: wizard ^^

How? Everything is shut down.

[Dave22reborn]

need to see historic death data for last 2 weeks to predict.

At current rates, most of the US should have been infected by then and the virus should have run its course mostly. I'll say 1M-2M.

Careful what you wish for, if daddy goes who will take care of you?