☣️🦠☣️🦠 Coronavirus (COVID-19) Information Thread 🦠☣️🦠☣️

[ss367]

150,000 people die a day
China is 1/6 of the worlds population

Do the math.

Don't buy into this fear mongoring chit. Yes the virus is real....but don't believe any reported or unreported numbers yet.

If you could read you would see it is referencing death rates in wuhan which is a city of 11 million

They are handing back the remains of 3,500 cremated bodies a day at this stage with a backlog of 12 days .. you do the math

Wuhan

[Johnez]

UK press report PM Johnson has been advised the death toll in China has been understated by a factor of 15 to 40 times

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/est...by-40-20200330

-Wuhan residents said they were growing increasingly skeptical that the figure of some 2,500 deaths in the city to date was accurate
-Since the start of the week, seven large funeral homes in Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains of around 500 people to their families every day, suggesting that far more people died than ever made the official statistics.
-News website Caixin.com reported that 5,000 urns had been delivered by a supplier to the Hankou Funeral Home in one day alone -- double the official number of deaths.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html

Notice how there is no actual evidence here. Not only that, there isn't even a claim! Just a statement that somebody told BJ that there's likely a chit ton of deaths. This means nothing, absolutely zero. There is no person or organization to challenge the statement, just some mythical "somebody." In edition BJ's name is thrown in for the click bait. Utter rubbish. On top of all this is the obvious idiocy that assumes all the urns were from the wuhan flu. Did all the other causes if death take a break? Lol. You should know better man. I don't believe China numbers, but we need hard evidence, not trash journalism that throws a bunch of chit on the wall and expect us to do the work in connecting the dots. Actual investigation.

[wake_me]

Notice how there is no actual evidence here. Not only that, there isn't even a claim! Just a statement that somebody told BJ that there's likely a chit ton of deaths. This means nothing, absolutely zero. There is no person or organization to challenge the statement, just some mythical "somebody." In edition BJ's name is thrown in for the click bait. Utter rubbish. On top of all this is the obvious idiocy that assumes all the urns were from the wuhan flu. Did all the other causes if death take a break? Lol. You should know better man. I don't believe China numbers, but we need hard evidence, not trash journalism that throws a bunch of chit on the wall and expect us to do the work in connecting the dots. Actual investigation.

an actual investigation might have breen easier if the transparent CCP didnt kick journalists out of the country

[ss367]

Notice how there is no actual evidence here. Not only that, there isn't even a claim! Just a statement that somebody told BJ that there's likely a chit ton of deaths. This means nothing, absolutely zero. There is no person or organization to challenge the statement, just some mythical "somebody." In edition BJ's name is thrown in for the click bait. Utter rubbish. On top of all this is the obvious idiocy that assumes all the urns were from the wuhan flu. Did all the other causes if death take a break? Lol. You should know better man. I don't believe China numbers, but we need hard evidence, not trash journalism that throws a bunch of chit on the wall and expect us to do the work in connecting the dots. Actual investigation.

Remember the mythical “somebody’s” who tried to warn the world about coronavirus who were subsequently silenced/reprimanded by the CCP?

[ANumber1]

Notice how there is no actual evidence here. Not only that, there isn't even a claim! Just a statement that somebody told BJ that there's likely a chit ton of deaths. This means nothing, absolutely zero. There is no person or organization to challenge the statement, just some mythical "somebody." In edition BJ's name is thrown in for the click bait. Utter rubbish. On top of all this is the obvious idiocy that assumes all the urns were from the wuhan flu. Did all the other causes if death take a break? Lol. You should know better man. I don't believe China numbers, but we need hard evidence, not trash journalism that throws a bunch of chit on the wall and expect us to do the work in connecting the dots. Actual investigation.

While I agree completely that we have to be careful with letting poorly-sourced articles shape the narrative, I will point out that this is entirely consistent with what I suspect was in the intelligence assessments given to the White House and select members of Congress in early February that prompted sudden stock sales. It seems obvious both that China likely gravely underestimated the death toll and also that this is something any intelligence assets in China would pick up on.

While the stories about what's going on in the Prime Minister's office can be traced to the Daily Mail, some of the primary reporting on the true death toll in Wuhan is being done by Radio Free Asia, which is funded by the United States as a pro-democracy counterweight to Chinese Communist propaganda.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ronavirus.html
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html

Chen said nobody in the city believes the official death toll.

"The official number of deaths was 2,500 people ... but before the epidemic began, the city's crematoriums typically cremated around 220 people a day," he said.

"But during the epidemic, they transferred cremation workers from around China to Wuhan keep cremate bodies around the clock," he said.

A resident surnamed Gao said the city's seven crematoriums should have a capacity of around 2,000 bodies a day if they worked around the clock.

"Anyone looking at that figure will realize, anyone with any ability to think," Gao said. "What are they talking about [2,535] people?"

"Seven crematoriums could get through more than that [in a single day]."

Let's take this for what it is:

- There's plenty of reason to suspect this is true, but RFA, by definition, has an agenda.

- True or false, RFA promoting this claim is likely indicative of the view the United States wants promoted within China.

As I said before, Spain barely had half as many cases as China, in a country with a smaller population than Hubei, and had already exceeded their death toll. If it turns out that they've disclosed their true death toll, well, that'll be amazing.

[LukeLissen]

Updated projections from the IHME ...


IHME COVID-19 Projections
https://covid19.healthdata.org/proje...mfrPo8RUJwbSSM














The drop down box (where is says 'United States of America') in the link has additional projections for each state.

I think this is a pretty good estimation of how this is going to go. It's more important to look at the range(shaded area) than to focus on specific numbers.

[taf1968]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

March 5: 201 / 221
March 6: 271 / 319
March 7: 366 / 435
March 8: 494 / 541
March 9: 667 / 704
March 10: 900 / 994
March 11: 1,215 / 1,301
March 12: 1,640 / 1,697
March 13: 2,214 / 2,247
March 14: 2,989 / 2,943
March 15: 4,035 / 3,680
March 16: 5,447 / 4,663
March 17: 7,353 / 6,411
March 18: 9,926 / 9,259
March 19: 13,400 / 13,789
March 20: 18,090 / 19,393
March 21: 24,421 / 24,207
March 22: 32,968 / 33.546
March 23: 44,496 / 43,734
March 24: 60,070 / 54,823
March 25: 81,094 / 68,211
March 26: 109,477 / 85,435
March 27: 147,794 / 104,126
March 28: 199,522 / 123,578
March 29: 269,355 / 142,047
March 30: 363,629
March 31: 490,899
April 1: 662,714


this thing with adding "specifically" in so many posts is cringe af.

OK, so maybe I'm a little slow . . . but what exactly am I looking at here? I'm looking at the link you sent and I'm not seeing what your numbers are for.

Is there a word you would like people to use when you post generalities and we're wanting to have something with particular context to discuss?

[wincel]

Updated projections from the IHME ...


IHME COVID-19 Projections
https://covid19.healthdata.org/proje...mfrPo8RUJwbSSM














The drop down box (where is says 'United States of America') in the link has additional projections for each state.

I think this is a pretty good estimation of how this is going to go. It's more important to look at the range(shaded area) than to focus on specific numbers.

These are if we practice distancing. But you know idiots are going to go out and fuking spread this chit.

[leoslayer1]

You have zero to say? What do you say about the numbers minus NY? Do you actually have anything to say but push the narrative for mass deaths? Do you actually have any opinion at all? Try to respond with an actual opinion.

I'm a tradie and even I know that there's variance in statistics. A one day move in either direction doesn't mean much especially with a skewed sample size(ie not testing enough) for example a perfectly balanced coin is supposed to be 50/50 heads tails right? But if you only flip it 10 times you might get anywhere from 0 heads to 10 heads in that sample. That's called variance.

[Farley1324]

OK, so maybe I'm a little slow . . . but what exactly am I looking at here? I'm looking at the link you sent and I'm not seeing what your numbers are for.

Is there a word you would like people to use when you post generalities and we're wanting to have something with particular context to discuss?

You're defeating the usefulness of the ignore function

(and understanding why it's in use)

[leoslayer1]

Updated projections from the IHME ...


IHME COVID-19 Projections
https://covid19.healthdata.org/proje...mfrPo8RUJwbSSM














The drop down box (where is says 'United States of America') in the link has additional projections for each state.

I think this is a pretty good estimation of how this is going to go. It's more important to look at the range(shaded area) than to focus on specific numbers.

Thanks for that. That's great news for NC!!!!

[ANumber1]

Updated projections from the IHME ...

So, my main concern in looking at all of these is that while NY is projected to be basically "done" by the end of the month, that's with all current policies remaining in place indefinitely.

Most states look set to be just heating up by the end of April, and nationally, we won't be "done" until, well, the Fourth of July.

Presumably, if we unlock before then, everything starts brewing anew.

So... I may need to top off my freezer.

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Thanks for that. That's great news for NC!!!!

This looks a little over-estimated for Arizona as of today.... Unless we get a massive spike in the next week

[ANumber1]

This looks a little over-estimated for Arizona as of today.... Unless we get a massive spike in the next week

Bear in mind that these are drawn assuming current policies remain in place indefinitely.

Arizona has done almost nothing - and we're all grateful to Governor Ducey for using a state full of retirees as a control group for future researchers - so the odds that you guys are brewing up some serious trouble are pretty high. However, those curves will all change when policies change as a result.

I would be surprised if Florida and Arizona don't change their tune in about a week, but time will tell. There's a lot we don't fully understand about the spread.

[keyboardworkout]

Using a forklift to load bodies into a freezer truck in Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/NYScanner/status...97630958047233

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Bear in mind that these are drawn assuming current policies remain in place indefinitely.

Arizona has done almost nothing - and we're all grateful to Governor Ducey for using a state full of retirees as a control group for future researchers - and the odds that you guys are brewing up some serious trouble are pretty high. However, those curves will all change when policies change as a result.

What I mean is, with current policies, our total number of positive tests is ~1k, the chart has us @ 1k hospitalized in 2 days.... April 1st. This week supposed to be mid-80s and sun. I honestly think the Phoenix area will be OK.... Not so sure about the higher elevation/colder cities, though....

[Doober4]

Using a forklift to load bodies into a freezer truck in Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/NYScanner/status...97630958047233

My wife works at a hospital in Cleveland and they brought in two freezer trucks in case they are needed. I think it’s more to keep the China virus bodies isolated.

[mexanacho]

Anybody else think we might be over the worst of it despite what all the "experts" say? Only 200 deaths yesterday compared with 500 the day before and so far today only 6. Seems like we may be out of this by Easter like Trump originally estimated.

[Farley1324]

Anybody else think we might be over the worst of it despite what all the "experts" say?

No.

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Anybody else think we might be over the worst of it despite what all the "experts" say? Only 200 deaths yesterday compared with 500 the day before and so far today only 6. Seems like we may be out of this by Easter like Trump originally estimated.

I think we can finally start to see the positive effect of shutting everything down.... If nothing closed, we'd be fuked

[AltarOfPlagues]

Anybody else think we might be over the worst of it despite what all the "experts" say? Only 200 deaths yesterday compared with 500 the day before and so far today only 6. Seems like we may be out of this by Easter like Trump originally estimated.

these numbers should hold steady for like 7-10 days.

[R3L3NTL3SS]

Anybody else think we might be over the worst of it despite what all the "experts" say? Only 200 deaths yesterday compared with 500 the day before and so far today only 6. Seems like we may be out of this by Easter like Trump originally estimated.

We'll see what the rest of the week looks like. As discussed before, day to day or even 2-3 days isn't enough - and I definitely wouldn't get excited over weekend numbers.

[MakeABanana]

Using a forklift to load bodies into a freezer truck in Brooklyn.

https://twitter.com/NYScanner/status...97630958047233

Likely just ran out of room in the hospital morgue. Maybe the guy died from COVID-19, maybe from something else. Impossible to tell.

There are FEMA trucks at my hospital as well. We've been running out of space to keep the dead bodies.

[HairyWBush]

Has anyone here been successful in applying for unemployment benefits within the last few days? I tried yesterday and in the morning and their website is broken. It won't let me navigate through their steps because it just sends me back to the login page. I get that or the fukkin ERROR: Error: The system has experienced an unexpected technical error.
fuk this broken bullchit

[HMFIC_BROWSIN]

Has anyone here been successful in applying for unemployment benefits within the last few days? I tried yesterday and in the morning and their website is broken. It won't let me navigate through their steps because it just sends me back to the login page.

The unemployment website basically saying "fuk off, we're full"

[HairyWBush]

The unemployment website basically saying "fuk off, we're full"

fuk this broken bullchit
Error: The system has experienced an unexpected technical error.

[R3L3NTL3SS]

Even IF the numbers were leveling off, which I doubt they are. (Probably just an anomaly or the weekend and numbers not updated like they are during the week.)

Now what? Stay inside for another 4-5 weeks...then everyone goes back tot their lives and the cases just start back up again.

The whole staying inside thing simply sin't going to be sustainable forever...

Eventually comes a point where the choice has to be made of staying inside for...uhh, like months and months...or getting the fk on with life and accept the risks.

[Farley1324]

Even IF the numbers were leveling off, which I doubt they are. (Probably just an anomaly or the weekend and numbers not updated like they are during the week.)

Now what? Stay inside for another 4-5 weeks...then everyone goes back tot their lives and the cases just start back up again.

The whole staying inside thing simply sin't going to be sustainable forever...

Eventually comes a point where the choice has to be made of staying inside for...uhh, like months and months...or getting the fk on with life and accept the risks.

As you have said yourself, there is no good evidence that a person who is infected and recovers (even super mild symptoms) can get reinfected with the same strain, so, as people get infected and 'recover' there will be fewer people who can be infected by the strain(s) already out there. And of course summer weather (we aren't sure yet, but it seems to be likely?) should reduce transmission and that's already sort of here in some areas of the US and coming to others soon-ish.

So, like, the situation does change with time and lend itself more readily to opening back up without overrunning everything (hopefully).



But you're right, no...the numbers are not going down at the moment or the next week.

I can't believe people ITT still see a day or even two of reduction and are like yup turned the corner all better now. uhhhh no. Jesus Christ. It's still going to get worse before it gets better.

[eod8989]

Walking around downtown it's a ghost town. I'm going crazy. Feels like I am legend here but I still have to work

[R3L3NTL3SS]

As you have said yourself, there is no good evidence that a person who is infected and recovers (even super mild symptoms) can get reinfected with the same strain, so, as people get infected and 'recover' there will be fewer people who can be infected by the strain(s) already out there. And of course summer weather (we aren't sure yet, but it seems to be likely?) should reduce transmission and that's already sort of here in some areas of the US and coming to others soon-ish.

So, like, the situation does change with time and lend itself more readily to opening back up without overrunning everything (hopefully).

Been in the high 80's (low 90's the last few days) and humid here in Louisiana for weeks now. It's not slowing down here at all. I'm not banking on summer helping any from what I can see.

And yes, we're banking on HOPEFULLY people not being able to be reinfected. Problem is as of now, we don't know the long term of that. Are you immune for days after? Weeks? Months? Forever?