UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit

[AirJordanB]

UFC 195: Saturday, January 2, 2015
Welterweight Championship Bout: Robbie Lawler(c) vs. Carlos Condit(#4)
Heavyweight Bout: Andrei Arlovski(#2) vs. Stipe Miocic(#3)
Welterweight Bout: Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin
Featherweight Bout: Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega
Lightweight Bout: Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims

[deepfat]

Really stoked for this fight. Big Lawler fan. I think this fight will look a lot of the same way Lawler-Rory looked. This fight has a great chance to be bloody, back and forth, with no clear favorite. Should be great.

[KingSWRV]

In b4 a short clean blood-less submission finish and people start booing

[VladimirVega]

Damnnn, this is one badass poster! WAR Lawler!

[scooterbrah]

pretty fkin excited for the main and co-main events. no care for the rest of the card.

[Gainzzz]

Robbie
Stipe
Tumenov (Larkin is a beast though, hope he wins)
Ortega
Who the fuk is Tony Sims?

[Canadian2point0]

Better not be like the last main event.

Give me a war.....

[zhengterry]

Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Michael McDonald vs. Masanori Kanehara
Kyle Noke vs. Alex Morono
Justine Kish vs. Nina Ansaroff
Drew Dober vs. Scott Holtzman

Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)
Dustin Poirier vs. Joseph Duffy
Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka
Edgar Garcia vs. Sheldon Westcott

[mistahAIM]

Man. UFC cards have been pretty damn good lately. When was the last time we got a PPV with a chitty non-title main event?

I'm super intrigued by Tumenov/Larkin and Poirier/Duffy. I think Lawler's wars catch up to him and chinny Arlovski makes a reappearance.

[LoveHateLift]

Wish this fight was in tact for 193 instead of Rouse v holm, would have paid $$ to watch live even it was lawn chair seats. Two of the most exciting fighers in mma sad to see one get set back. I gotta go with Ruthless one. His resurgence is bertiful, hope it continues.

[TheIronAsylum]

war lawler

[Sparta11]

Lawler wins in 4th by tko

[MinisterOfLust]

Condit Time

[AleaJactaEst]

Condit vs Lawler. Ultimate most clever guy on BB, always correct and 100% accurate prediction.

I will bet this fight so I'm quite certain about my prediction. I am getting almost even odds for Lawler and I think he wins this >80% of the times for certain. So I generate 30%+ expected value on my bet. Now I don't like using these numbers, especially in MMA, but for the sake of bank roll management I gotta put tha finger on it.

Lawler has better, cleaner, more efficient and more effective striking than Condit. I can't say much about defence since I'm not educated enough but what I am certain about is that Lawler has very good control of distance and balance, he has proven to be very good @ all ranges. Lawlers movement looked insanely good in his last fight, very efficient, very effective.

Condit's advantage going into this fight is his variety. I think a lot of Condits wins do not neccessarily come from him technically outboxing his opponents but more of confusing them with throwing very unorthodox combinations, coming from different angles, different stances, spinning elbows, flying knees, upkicks. I think he freezes every opponent who can't take control of him in a fight. I don't really see anything else that favors Condit in this fight. Condit doesn't strike me has having outstanding movement, definitely not very efficient shot selection but he can freeze and confuse his opponents because he is so good at using his variety and unorthodox style.

I don't think that's enough. While a part of me can see condit landing some fancy stuff like upkick that knocks Lawler out - I just don't think it's very likely. I think Condit should fight this very slowly. Stay out of boxing range and legkick, bodykick and occasionally throw safe combinations. And if he manages to freeze Lawler with this or make him overextend he can try to profit with his combinations and fancy chit.

I don't tink Condit will have this gameplan. I think Jackson will tell him to go elbow the chit out of Lawler, put a lot of volume on him and try and get control of the fight. Which is probably exactly what Lawler has been preparing for. Lawler is just a much more polished boxer.

Condits clinge is stronger than Lawlers. And Condit is proven to be extremely dangerous in elbow range. I believe Lawler will have drilled this and have an answer.


So yea, can't really give Lawler more than 80-85%. Very good bet, think it's very good value. If it goes to decision I think Lawlers striking will outscore and I also believe given Condit has tendency to be out of position and a somewhat weak TDD Lawler will take rounds with takedowns.

[risingphoenix73]

dat comain. war arlovski!

[Yotone]

i cant see lawler getting that hurt.

[kevo1295]

If Robbie doesn't go for takedowns, this will be early FOTY. And it won't be like the Diaz fight because Robbie doesn't plod forward, so it will be exchanges all night. Condit by TKO.

[butteredtoast]

Here's the first Embedded video:





Maybe Robbie is naturally a ginger.

[VladimirVega]

Mirin' Robbies car. Dude has taste!

[ilykejordans]

in b4 Condit comes in at 20% body fat cause of Dolce

[trainreqq]

All title fights besides Mighty Midget's this year have delivered, can't wait for this one.

Where my just bleed brothers at?

[deepfat]

Here's the first Embedded video:





Maybe Robbie is naturally a ginger.

The only question I have is why is Condit's house so fuking filthy?

[nikeoneplatinum]

Pourier Duffy fightpass? Huh?

[ashketchup963]

forrest gump vs carlos condit is gonna be insane!

[MinisterOfLust]

Pourier Duffy fightpass? Huh?

Don't complain brother.


And don't question the UFC

[scooterbrah]

[sword_]

All title fights besides Mighty Midget's this year have delivered, can't wait for this one.

Where my just bleed brothers at?

I was thinking about this when an above poster mentioned elbow range strikes. Condit uses them effectively.

I like Condit but Robbie has perfected his southpaw boxing and has a bunch of traps to prevent people from taking advantage of getting within range. Robbie has smooth movement and sometimes he looks hittable and I think there's a risk that there will be some punches traded in close distance but Robbie will get the better of it.

If Condit can vary his attacks and throw kicks and knees like he does without fearing getting taken down due to a nasty guard he can pull off something. I favor Robbie heavily though.

[CorytheKiD]

I honestly think Carlos finishes Lawler within 4 rounds.

[kaurori]

lost my respect for condit after the nick diaz fight tbh, hope lawler lays him down to sleep

[Gainzzz]

lost my respect for condit after the nick diaz fight tbh, hope lawler lays him down to sleep

'it's gonna be a dog fight'