**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IX-

[StevieMe]

I think there will be a gap up tomorrow.

[blinkers88]

I think there will be a gap up tomorrow.

gap n go or gap n fade?

[Barn01]

I think there will be a gap up tomorrow.

Did you buy long on that prediction?

If not please provide some data as to WHY you "think" it will gap up. Since you used the word "think" that should imply that you had a reason to bring you to that thought.

Anyone can make a prediction as to up or down. Even if you're right ... what does that actually mean? Nothing if you don't track it. I don't care if someone is a clairvoyant but they better have a track record to back it up.

[ctownballer04]

Did you buy long on that prediction?

If not please provide some data as to WHY you "think" it will gap up. Since you used the word "think" that should imply that you had a reason to bring you to that thought.

Anyone can make a prediction as to up or down. Even if you're right ... what does that actually mean? Nothing if you don't track it. I don't care if someone is a clairvoyant but they better have a track record to back it up.

checking in

[Venom08]

I think there will be a gap up tomorrow.

I just don't see that happening
DJIA 5-min:


SPX 5-min:
Still bound by this downward channel

[Newinvestor08]

I just started trading stocks and I'm down 2k in one week

One thing I've learned and quickly realized

Don't believe anything people say

[StevieMe]

I went long and here's why. Today finished up after the absolute carnage the previous day which is quite impressive in itself but here's the main reason. There was a massive burst of volume at the end of the day with bulls winning convincingly. There's no obvious reason as to why it shouldn't carry over tomorrow. This long isn't a 100% winning trade, no trade ever is but it's +EV imo.
Lets see what happens boys.

[Venom08]

I think we're close to the bottom and will probably set it tomorrow, but any volume surges EOD were probably shorts covering and realizing profit. The last minute candle was very bearish, especially on AAPL.

[thetrebel]

I just started trading stocks and I'm down 2k in one week

One thing I've learned and quickly realized

Don't believe anything people say

2k is cheap for a lifelong lesson

[woodbarry]

Not sure why but every time I take caffeine to study I always end up thinking about buying/selling instead of what I am trying to study lol. Oh well. I think I am going to play off venom's Apple put and go long if it plunges more tomorrow. It is a solid company that knows how to penetrate new markets even with someone else's product. I honestly think even at it's current price it is a good buy. I am rather irate that I can't time tsla to save my life so giving up on my hopes and dreams of shorting it. Also to anyone considering biotechs don't do it brahs. Speculation is the only reason they are up so high imo. Research is expensive and profits are not that great unless you are the first to the market with something revolutionary. Small companies go under all the time so play safe with the bigger companies.

I'm glad to see that Barn has made progress in teaching fellow Miscers to give reasons why they think the market is moving one way or another. I was getting tired of seeing random predictions with no reason why even though I did it too.

[White-Belt]

Indices finished off bearishly. I'm expecting a huge spike down tomorrow to set in the bottom. I WILL BTFD with everything I have, and then I'll look at my margin and short bonds, huehuehue.
Even Carl Icahn is talking about the poisonous bond market

Interesting video.

Carl Icahn is talking about high yield bonds which is a by word for junk bonds, or low grade corporate bonds (take your pick of name, they are all the same).

High yields move in tandem with stock prices, because corporate bonds is the debt of companies, the likelihood of them being paid in full is directly linked to the fortunes of the underlying companies.

The government bonds, and high yield bonds are different markets, and they move inversely to one another. Government bonds are a safe haven asset, (the US government will pay one way or another) whereas high yields are speculative because there is no guarantee a company can met its obligation.

Money moving into government bonds, and out of high yield bonds is there risk off.
Money moving into of high yield bonds , and out of government bonds is therefore risk on.

If you understand the above, you will understand why your theory about the bond markets collapsing (and you mean economic collapse, rather than risk on movement of capital out of treasures) and stocks rising doesn't make sense.

I hoping you listen lol.

[Newinvestor08]

2k is cheap for a lifelong lesson

Hahaha i guess I can be optimistic

[Venom08]

Well to put it as bluntly as possible, I won't be sticking my money into anything GOVERNMENT. Investing in government debt is a horrible idea, even as a hedge. And since I believe markets are in for a rally, money will be flowing out of government (bonds) and into the the private sector (stock market). Of course these two things are inversely correlated.

[gregbmw]

Plenty of FED speakers this week......Let's see how that affects things.

[Venom08]

^ I'll definitely sell my AAPL puts tomorrow, but I won't jump on its calls. I'm going to enter SPY and DDD calls for sure, and now I'm doing some research for other companies to stick my teeth in for the long haul.

[BigDawg69]

barring QE4 announcement or other major news I'm going to be balls deep short at 1903 in the S&P

[bee su]

Perfect, my philosophy. I bet if you book mark people's predictions check back a year later I've 50% will be wrong.

tmmmr spy be green. boook it hard. 1000k x 4


source-

[ctownballer04]

[Slamt]

awww fuk missed the 1st page

won't miss this dip tho

btfd crew checkin in for now

Yeah buddyyyyyyyy

sick call

[Newinvestor08]

I have a feeling there is gonna be a sick rally idgaf if my stocks are declining I'm going to make another buy in the energy sector price is to good

Any other recommendations on stocks?

[White-Belt]

That is not true. I'll provide examples as I go along to be a bit more helpful.

1. You said stocks move in tandem with bond prices.
That is categorically false because not all high yield issuers are public companies. For instance, I can buy Toys "R" Us' Propco II Notes, or their senior unsecured 10.375% '17 paper - I cannot buy any common stock - TRU is not a public company.
Additionally, if a company issues convertible notes characterized as high yield/junk with the blessing of a credit rating agency, you can see a divergence in the price movement between the convertible issue and the share price. If share price is increasing, the convertible bond will behave like equity, however, if the share price is falling precipitously, the bond will act more like debt than equity ("bond" floorprice). That is, it will not fall as much as the stock would - it's a bond with a coupon, yield, etc.
Also, when bankruptcy and restructuring conversations are taking place, the stocks will still trade despite their imminent delisting from the exchange. Many "penny stocks" trade after a bankruptcy has been filled and represent great short candidates of you are able to get a reasonable "borrow" as they are "zeroes" that will be delisted and the shares may eventually get cancelled in a reorganization plan blessed by the court.
Finally, just by inspection, you can see stocks with >1 billion dollar valuations when their senior notes are trading at 67 - this pricing dislocation really should not happen if the bond price reflects reality (distressed company).

I hope this helps and makes sense.

That doesn't really change anything about what I said.

I think you are being a bit specific, I'm talking about broad flows of the markets rather than individual companies.

In any event, what you are talking about is really degrees of the same thing....I.e. Bonds not falling as much because they have a coupon - the point is they are falling.

Your special situations was clearly not the point I was making.

[Venom08]

Let's see 15,600 today or tomorrow, I'm being serious.
DJIA 10-min:

[Slamt]

Let's see 15,600 today or tomorrow, I'm being serious.
DJIA 10-min:

Got out of my longs and flipped to short here. got spy/tsla puts

think we see breakdown lower as well

[GabrielNovar]

^ 182 on the SPY probably has to hit IMO. Support line. Break above 196 needed but by then you would have missed out on much of the rally.

[thetrebel]

Short here

gbp/usd 1 hour

[thetrebel]

USD is going to get a train run on it srs

[jackedguy87]

carl icahns new video " danger ahead" where he warns about whats coming for the stock market and economy thanks to the fed:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyKIvnied-o


very important video for any investor. he lays out why the stock market is in a bubble very well produced and this is a mainstream guy not peter schiff

[jackedguy87]

Plenty of FED speakers this week......Let's see how that affects things.

they play good cop bad cop

[GabrielNovar]

carl icahns new video " danger ahead" where he warns about whats coming for the stock market and economy thanks to the fed:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyKIvnied-o

cliffs? Looking back QE was so goat though

[Kane_89]

Can anyone who's pretty fluent with options help me? Will rep twice.

Simple question