**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -VIII-

[Venom08]

Stocks fell in January for just the 8th time since 1929. The last seven times that happened, the rest of the year sucked.

Akin Oyedele

The S&P 500 has had a rough start for 2015.

The index fell by 3.1% in January.

A weak January is not just unusual: It's historically an ugly signal, according to the New York Stock Exchange's Rich Barry.

"This year is only the 8th since 1929 to post a January loss after 3 or more consecutive up years," Barry said. "All prior 7 closed down for the year, (avg -14.8%), and all 7 were followed by a recession (according to the National Bureau of Economic Research) on average 7 months later. The prior years: 1953, 1957, 1973, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2008."

But that's just history. And we're talking about just one month.

The S&P 500 was down 1.3% on Friday. Data showed that US GDP missed estimates and slowed to 2.6% in Q4 from 4.0% in the previous quarter, even as personal consumption jumped 4.3% in the fourth quarter.



History repeats itself because the market is driven by human emotions that never change. So every time it's sold off and turned January negative we've had a bear market? 7/7 means that 8/8 will be fulfilled. I'm assuming the mayhem will start in the fall so just expect more chop between now and October 2015.

[White-Belt]

Stocks fell in January for just the 8th time since 1929. The last seven times that happened, the rest of the year sucked.

Akin Oyedele

The S&P 500 has had a rough start for 2015.

The index fell by 3.1% in January.

A weak January is not just unusual: It's historically an ugly signal, according to the New York Stock Exchange's Rich Barry.

"This year is only the 8th since 1929 to post a January loss after 3 or more consecutive up years," Barry said. "All prior 7 closed down for the year, (avg -14.8%), and all 7 were followed by a recession (according to the National Bureau of Economic Research) on average 7 months later. The prior years: 1953, 1957, 1973, 1981, 1990, 2000, 2008."

But that's just history. And we're talking about just one month.

The S&P 500 was down 1.3% on Friday. Data showed that US GDP missed estimates and slowed to 2.6% in Q4 from 4.0% in the previous quarter, even as personal consumption jumped 4.3% in the fourth quarter.



History repeats itself because the market is driven by human emotions that never change. So every time it's sold off and turned January negative we've had a bear market? 7/7 means that 8/8 will be fulfilled. I'm assuming the mayhem will start in the fall so just expect more chop between now and October 2015.

Interesting stuff, what's the source?

[GabrielNovar]

There is too much chit talked in this thread...

@Gab, this period of sideways movement on the sp500, and just generally market wise is gonna produce a big move one way or another. Only time will tell.

that is the my only problem....this sideways movement looks like a massive move to the downside in the markets. Lots of discounts out there from the highs so would be interesting to see their reaction.

Might be 190-195 march spy puts as a slight hedge, Not much but would increase short term cash flow just incase.

[TrillBrah]

what do you guys think about the Columbia Pipeline IPO that's happening on Monday? I was thinking about investing a couple hundred. The price range is expected to be $19-$21

from their site:
"CPG will include Columbia Gas Transmission, Columbia Gulf Transmission, NiSource Midstream Services, and other current NiSource natural gas pipeline, storage and midstream holdings. In total the new public company will operate more than 15,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines, nearly 300 billion cubic feet of underground natural gas storage capacity, and a growing portfolio of midstream and related facilities."

[BlondeRod]

Interesting stuff, what's the source?

Business Insider

[White-Belt]

that is the my only problem....this sideways movement looks like a massive move to the downside in the markets. Lots of discounts out there from the highs so would be interesting to see their reaction.

Might be 190-195 march spy puts as a slight hedge, Not much but would increase short term cash flow just incase.

That's what my gut reaction is too, and there are lots other things which suggest that might happen. I'm not seeing a sell signal just yet though

[cannadian]

It was -14 in Calgary this morning. The last Jan 31 that it was -14 was the Jan 31 before the great crash of 1929. Omg.

[thetrebel]

It was -14 in Calgary this morning. The last Jan 31 that it was -14 was the Jan 31 before the great crash of 1929. Omg.

buy the dip

[White-Belt]

buy the dip

lol, you need that in your sig

[ctownballer04]

It was -14 in Calgary this morning. The last Jan 31 that it was -14 was the Jan 31 before the great crash of 1929. Omg.

Exited all positions, thanks for heads up.

[Dcb456]

So i am literally a illterate on how to trade . like you guys are doing it. Questions is i saw that you need min of $25k to start day trading. and i wouldn't start trading at least after a year or so of practice and see how i do. However i am wondering is that are all of you guys have the min required deposit, is that how you guys are able to trade?. If not is there anyway around the min deposit requirement?

[guest89]

Any of you guys familiar with real estate investment trusts? I was just watching Shark Tank and someone brought in the idea of a real estate crowdfunding business (which they all shot down). However the sharks brought up REITs.


Did a bit of reading on them and I'm gaining interest. Curious if any of you guys mess with this type of thing. Most of the wealthier people I know IRL invest in real estate but they've the money to buy properties outright.

[lolbro]

I'm not sure how much more of a hit to yield investors will accept.

Depends on the investor - Japan investors won't mind - it's better than what they're paying!

You can see now why he is such a gold bull

He HAS to make it back, and is not diversified at all and is pretty much all in. If gold goes up= ceo'n we made it nikka, but if it goes down= fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

Jack3d brah as much as I hate your predictions, I dont hate you brah we need for diff pov. If not it would just be one huge circle jerk.

Hope you stay safe mane, my dad lost all of his savings (50k) in the .com bubble. Had he invested safely, he could have been balling now. That was suppose to be my college fund lel

But while the market might be rational/efficient, people sometimes are not.


Peace out bye

Well if it pays off it pays off, if it doesn't then...

If gold goes up alot (which it could, I don't doubt that it could possibly do that) then jack3d will be CEO'ing. It's if it goes down a lot long-term that he's going to have problems.

[Humungus]

So i am literally a illterate on how to trade . like you guys are doing it. Questions is i saw that you need min of $25k to start day trading. and i wouldn't start trading at least after a year or so of practice and see how i do. However i am wondering is that are all of you guys have the min required deposit, is that how you guys are able to trade?. If not is there anyway around the min deposit requirement?

You can trade with under 25k. I would recommend starting small. But once you hit 4 round trip (buy and sell same stock within the same day) trades in a 5 day span, they freeze you. Just make sure your account is margin enabled so you can short.

My advice would be to paper trade and/or do stock market simulations and track at least a dozen or so stocks to get a feel for how they move and the market in general. Also would recommend waiting for a larger market pullback before getting started with real money. Actually the pullback that is about to happen would be the perfect time to get in, and it's easier to make money during volatility (assuming you can short).

[woodbarry]

Trading with under 2 grand crew.

Was trading with 3.5k when fannie mae was at $6 crew

[psai]

college econ club's virtual trading contest starts tomorrow and lasts for around 2 months
won the contest last year due to a combination of sheer luck and very risky trading
i'm gonna attempt to replicate that this time around...dis gun be gud

my plan (for now) is to trade the earnings reports that are coming out, and perhaps hedge my risk to some degree with an index fund

[AniMaLizTik]

The only reason we're -for the month of January is because of oil. A soon as it begins to rebound steadily, the gains will continue. UNless it stays down, then we'll see another 2009, imo.

[jkh25]

Any of you guys familiar with real estate investment trusts? I was just watching Shark Tank and someone brought in the idea of a real estate crowdfunding business (which they all shot down). However the sharks brought up REITs.


Did a bit of reading on them and I'm gaining interest. Curious if any of you guys mess with this type of thing. Most of the wealthier people I know IRL invest in real estate but they've the money to buy properties outright.

Their popular in low-yield environments like now (same with utilities) due to the large yield that they usually offer. I have about 10% of portfolio in REITs. Help protect against inflation but may see a decline in prices once yields start to rise. Have had strong returns in the past few years. I believe it's good to have some in your portfolio as a stable income generator. Often have low volatility as well. Hope this helps.

[jkh25]

The only reason we're -for the month of January is because of oil. A soon as it begins to rebound steadily, the gains will continue. UNless it stays down, then we'll see another 2009, imo.

I don't think it will be as serious as 2009, however I do think that the impact of low oil going into the 2nd half of 2015 (once a large portion of hedges expire) is being discredited a bit too much. Many claim the large drop in capex spending and resulting impact on GDP will be offset and even increase overall by the savings to consumers. The figures they use largely imply that 100% of the savings will be funneled back into the economy through additional spending, specifically on discretionary items. So far this has not been the case and it has actually been around 25% with the other 75% going towards saving and paying down debt. Once the hedges wear off the unemployment rate will start to rise in areas like North Dakota that will be hit the hardest but in my opinion it will be fairly isolated.

The reason I don't see it becoming a huge disaster is that the price of oil should rebound enough imo to prevent widespread job loss across North America. The results on Friday were positive regarding the drop in rig counts (over 7% drop I believe). The one concern is that with improved technology these rigs are able to extract more than before. Would be interested to hear your thoughts on where you see oil prices in 2015 and 2016.

[Ted Nugent]

brahs, would appreciate a little input or help. have read 2 books thus far and online tutorials on trading options because its something i really want to get into. have a gained a pretty good basic understanding of how it all works, but still no actual real world practice/application. i know oil is going to be back up by the end of the summer, so i really want to invest in some 9 month option contracts (assuming i can find them for the right price) so i can make a nice payout. so essentially i need to fast track the learning phase of picking out which actual contracts i want and actually purchasing them. i imagine most of you will say thats rash and stupid, but theres potential for a sizeable payout, and the confidence i have in my prediction is enough where im willing to risk whatever my investment is on it.

cliffs:
-have entry level understanding of how the options market works/theory
-want/need to enter the market now to maximize wallet gains
-need to learn the practical side of doing things so i can actually buy the contracts
-wat do?

[AniMaLizTik]

I...Would be interested to hear your thoughts on where you see oil prices in 2015 and 2016.

I'm not even close to being an expert, but I have studied the historical data enough to know that oil will rebound eventually. My wild (and hopeful) guess is that oil will not drop below $40 PB. Exon Mobile and Chevron will be at the entry point of a lifetime sometime between summer and fall.

I'm already heavily invested. Right now I'm stockpiling cash for when XOM and Chevron bottom out. I'm (WILD) guessing at around $50 a share.

[xRedStaRx]

I would like to lose my money as fast as possible, please watch and learn

Good luck.

I'm not even close to being an expert, but I have studied the historical data enough to know that oil will rebound eventually. My wild (and hopeful) guess is that oil will not drop below $40 PB. Exon Mobile and Chevron will be at the entry point of a lifetime sometime between summer and fall.

I'm already heavily invested. Right now I'm stockpiling cash for when XOM and Chevron bottom out. I'm (WILD) guessing at around $50 a share.

Yes, because the world turns around historical pattern, and not economic activity.

[Venom08]

lmfao, time for a world war to break out over this chit

[jkh25]

I'm not even close to being an expert, but I have studied the historical data enough to know that oil will rebound eventually. My wild (and hopeful) guess is that oil will not drop below $40 PB. Exon Mobile and Chevron will be at the entry point of a lifetime sometime between summer and fall.

I'm already heavily invested. Right now I'm stockpiling cash for when XOM and Chevron bottom out. I'm (WILD) guessing at around $50 a share.

Definitely a good opportunity currently. If you aren't heavily invested in small cap energy plays then you may want to look into that a bit more. My thought is American investors should be looking a lot more seriously into Canadian companies when it comes to oil & gas currently. Your dollar would go a long way atm and once oil rebounds the CAD should theoretically appreciate against the USD (assuming our interest rate is also increased), which will help when sell. Not to mention how even though oil is at around $45 due to the conversion most oil companies in CA are realizing about $50-60 per barrel (for the ones who sell wti not wcs).

I'm hoping for $60 oil by YE2015 but would actually like to see it stay low until end of 2-3Q, to get rid of a few more companies that have around $50 breakeven.

[Ted Nugent]

Good luck.

i know its going to go up, not worried about potentially losing. asking whats the best route to learn about actually buying them/using a broker/etc. all the books im reading just discuss theory and basics, i know which companies i want to buy the options contracts for

[Dcb456]

i have no trading experience, but i am very keen & intrigued (have a passion) on reading how the economies and companies have a strong correlation between production of a commodity and countries economic status (for past 5 years). The OIL will never sustain at $100 again PERIOD!.


Here's my Theory!.

- the saudi's are trying to drive the US companies out of business (Duh!) and continue having a cartel on Oil. However reaching $100 will happen! (maybe even less like $80) i think .But the minute it hits $80, american corporations and banks will see that there's more profitability now, and will start digging for more shale oil & gas again. Alternatively all that will do is just drive a over supply once again. Then it goes back to the same circle again of going down to $40 again. So this theory of or assumption of reaching $100 is not going to happen, technological advancement has made it cheaper and faster to dig up gas and oil reserves in the US and abroad. Thus there's more competition and more supply. UNLESS there's major collusion . but that will never happen, because when ever there is collusion , the other company/country will always undercut the other country/company to try and gain advantage in market share

[woodbarry]

i know its going to go up, not worried about potentially losing. asking whats the best route to learn about actually buying them/using a broker/etc. all the books im reading just discuss theory and basics, i know which companies i want to buy the options contracts for

Your not going to find favor among those who use options because they have studied them for quite awhile and probably won't in good conscious tell you its a good idea to get into them with limited knowledge of the subject. They will all say to trade paper until you understand what is going on which is a smart move.

If your confident in your ideas why don't you simply buy the stocks? Are you trying to use leverage or what? I mean if your so confident then it shouldn't matter if your buying options or buying the stock as the point of options is when your not 100% sure of yourself and you don't want to get stuck holding the bag.



Also, to Dcb, you contradicted yourself in 4 sentences. Oil will never sustain 100$ and then "However reaching $100 will happen!"
So many different scenarios can occur predicting the future is impossible. What if ISIS demolished the Saudi oil infrastructure? What would happen then?? There are a million reasons why oil production can get disrupted and if it does suddenly there will be a large amount of demand not being met and the prices will skyrocket. However, some of that concern is already being priced into the market and it will lead to further investment thus defeating the concern before it happens.

On the flip side every country in the world is looking for any oil they can find. The quantity of oil within the earth has been vastly underestimated and there is more being found every year. At a certain point it might not even matter if supply from one geographical area is stopped as other places will be capable of picking up the slack. There is never a safe bet from a demand/supply stand point in my opinion. To invest in the company most capable of taking advantage of economic conditions is ideal.

[Ted Nugent]

Your not going to find favor among those who use options because they have studied them for quite awhile and probably won't in good conscious tell you its a good idea to get into them with limited knowledge of the subject. They will all say to trade paper until you understand what is going on which is a smart move.

If your confident in your ideas why don't you simply buy the stocks? Are you trying to use leverage or what? I mean if your so confident then it shouldn't matter if your buying options or buying the stock as the point of options is when your not 100% sure of yourself and you don't want to get stuck holding the bag.

leverage. if im going to risk 3-5 grand, the amount of stocks i could get and the amount they are likely to go up wouldn't net me much money, i'd rather have the potential of much higher payout. this massive drop in oil doesn't happen that often, so im going to make the most of it, when it comes back and is normal then can invest in some choice stocks.

im not unsure of what i think the market is going to do, im unsure of how to actually go about getting a broker and purchasing the contracts, thats all.

[woodbarry]

I see. I hope you also realize you can lose more than the original 3-5 grand if your using leverage and your calls don't pan out correctly.

You can buy options on pretty much any trading platform if I am not mistaken. TDAmeritrade, scottrade, ect ect. I do not myself understand all the risks associated with leveraged options however, so hopefully someone else will chime in with something besides kiss your money goodbye.

I will say that I have heard of people trading on margin have been forced to realize losses at very disadvantageous times because the lender feared losing more that what was already lost. Just sayin'

[cannadian]

The only reason we're -for the month of January is because of oil. A soon as it begins to rebound steadily, the gains will continue. UNless it stays down, then we'll see another 2009, imo.

So...

High energy prices = the world is fukd

And

Low energy prices = the world is fukd

Interesting.