IMHO, Kai brought a deadly combination of mass and conditioning at the 2013 ACE, just a week after the O last year. So clearly, Kai peaked too late for the O last year. Meanwhile, Phil looked like a shadow of his Olympia winning self at the 2013 ACE, which again was just a week after the O last year.
Anyone in the industry and even most Phil fans, will tell you that Kai deserved the 2013 ACE win, but it was a political victory for Phil, same as the Sheru winners in recent years, a glorified cash grab where the placings are identical to that of the O regardless of the shape the competitors come in.
So my point is this, Phil can come in off and Kai can dial it in. We are talking about just days here and it was a reverse at the 2013 ACE as what we saw at the 2013 Olympia.
If Kai comes in to this years O with the same mass and conditioning as he did at the 2013 ACE and Phil comes in a little off like he did at the 2013 ACE, I think they could give it to Kai. Let's not also forget how close 2012 was.
I don't think Phil has to have a glaring injury/tear in order to lose. I also don't think that he has to have 2 consecutive "off" Olympias in order for the judges to award the man with the best physique. That's like saying that every reining Olympia champion gets a "gimmie" where he can come in totally off but will still win no matter the competition, just because he is the reining Mr. Olympia.
Just remember, records and trends are made to be broken and history is made to be written. Jay Cutler was written off in 2009 under the same ideology prior to the Olympia that year, that he had lost the title, and never had someone come back and won the title after losing it in the history of the sport and since he was also so "off" in 2008, he had no chance...and look what happened. I don't think things are as set in stone as some believe, but maybe I also have too much faith in the sport/judges.
Phil is the favourite, but Kai can also do it this year...If the chips fall in Kai's favour given his physique and Phil's, it's possible imho.
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