Early birds fantasy football discussion

[Farley1324]

I've done some streaming qbs in the past.....never works out for me

I'm going Peyton or Brees as number 2 pick unless there's someone I can't pass up. I make A Lot of moves on the waiver wire

Come on now...it's not a matter of taking Peyton 2nd overall or having to stream QB's.

[reverse79]

Come on now...it's not a matter of taking Peyton 2nd overall or having to stream QB's.

It's a matter of solidifying Tds every week. I posted stafford's last 5 games a few pages back. Those games are outright pitiful


Doesn't 20 points at minimum sound good to you? What other players give that ROI...every single week?

[Farley1324]

It's a matter of solidifying Tds every week. I posted stafford's last 5 games a few pages back. Those games are outright pitiful


Doesn't 20 points at minimum sound good to you? What other players give that ROI...every single week?

I do not believe Peyton will repeat his career season this year.

If you think he will, then it's worth taking him in the first round I suppose.

[reverse79]

I do not believe Peyton will repeat his career season this year.

If you think he will, then it's worth taking him in the first round I suppose.

I'd say 5k yards....45-50 tds

[Farley1324]

I'd say 5k yards....45-50 tds

Big difference between 5k yards and 45 TDs, and 5,500 yards 55 TD's.

And even that would be more than 300 passing yards greater than his second best season, and if he got 50 TD's would be the second most TD's he's ever thrown.

That's a very high bar. Especially for a team that seems to understand that it needs to run the ball better.

[vr4don]

Tds win championships....Peyton owns that offense (lol john fox).

Peyton is the safest pick in fantasy based on these facts

He throws a ton
Won't get injured
Best receiving corp in nfl

Nobody faces Peyton and says "easy win this week"

Seahawks Did

[reverse79]

Big difference between 5k yards and 45 TDs, and 5,500 yards 55 TD's.

And even that would be more than 300 passing yards greater than his second best season, and if he got 50 TD's would be the second most TD's he's ever thrown.

That's a very high bar. Especially for a team that seems to understand that it needs to run the ball better.

Even if they run a little more...it's going to open up play action.

They're already a nightmare matchup for secondaries not named Seattle....even if that dump pass gets to montee And he scores..win for Peyton

[Farley1324]

Even if they run a little more...it's going to open up play action.

They're already a nightmare matchup for secondaries not named Seattle....even if that dump pass gets to montee And he scores..win for Peyton

I'll take the under on 5k passing yards, and the under on 50 TD passes

[reverse79]

So..you're running high on Calvin.

What is your expectation for him as a number 1 pick?


A slight recap from last year

Didn't lead the league in yards
Didn't lead the league in Tds
Didn't lead the league in targets
Didn't lead the league in receptions


He did have the 2nd most yards per game though

[vr4don]

So..you're running high on Calvin.

What is your expectation for him as a number 1 pick?


A slight recap from last year

Didn't lead the league in yards
Didn't lead the league in Tds
Didn't lead the league in targets
Didn't lead the league in receptions


He did have the 2nd most yards per game though

having Tate opposite him Will help his numbers I think ( think Tates will go up as well with a heavier pass attack)

[pkahnman]

I just feel like picking Calvin first ****s my whole draft up. Im just used to going with rb

[reverse79]

I just feel like picking Calvin first ****s my whole draft up. Im just used to going with rb

Yeah..it's such a deep position. I like his chances of being in the 10-15 td range but his yards per game should drop off. If he does lineup in the slot...a la colston...I can see his receptions increase.

DT is the guy this year...especially with Gordon out

[Murph0408]

So..you're running high on Calvin.

What is your expectation for him as a number 1 pick?


A slight recap from last year

Didn't lead the league in yards
Didn't lead the league in Tds
Didn't lead the league in targets
Didn't lead the league in receptions


He did have the 2nd most yards per game though

frankly, he's the most likely receiver to top the league in basically every one of those categories lol

calvin's a tricky choice for me and i do prefer a RB early but i can't blame anybody for going with him in the top 5 picks.

[Farley1324]

So..you're running high on Calvin.

What is your expectation for him as a number 1 pick?


A slight recap from last year

Didn't lead the league in yards
Didn't lead the league in Tds
Didn't lead the league in targets
Didn't lead the league in receptions


He did have the 2nd most yards per game though

frankly, he's the most likely receiver to top the league in basically every one of those categories lol

calvin's a tricky choice for me and i do prefer a RB early but i can't blame anybody for going with him in the top 5 picks.

Exactly.

You know that old saying that you can't win your league in the first couple of rounds, but you can lose it? Yeah. You want the closest bet to a sure thing at a skill position, and that's Calvin or Graham. Or maybe Peterson. QB's are typically more of a sure thing, if you get one of the upper tier elites (which frankly I think there are only two of this season, though most would say three), but even an elite QB isn't worth as much as any elite at a skill position.

I'm sick of RB's and their stupidly high turnover rate at the top, what is it, like 60%? They get injured far more than the other positions and their production always manages to vary from season to season, for different reasons.

I seriously seriously considered Calvin 1.02 last season, talked about it in these threads, everybody thought it was too high, etc...but how many people took Doug Martin (raises hand), Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, or Trent Richardson in the first round last year? How did that work out? Seriously, think about that. I just listed FIVE RB's whose FFC ADP was in the top 9 overall last year, and none of them were worth it. That is greater than 50% failure rate. And three of the next six RB's taken were Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley, and David Wilson. They all failed miserably compared to that ADP...that's half! 50% failure rate!. It's going to be the same thing this year, I guarantee it. There are going to be first round RB's who flop, and there are going to be more top pick RB's who flop than top pick WR's. For whatever reason. It's a lock.

And you can get a QB1 literally in like round 8. Good luck getting a WR1 in round 8.

[SmurfCrusher]

I can't bring myself to take a QB in the first two rounds, I just can't do it. I do that that the top few QB's are almost always going to have high scoring games, but I'd rather take my chance on a Rivers, Romo, etc. QB that can put up similar numbers, but maybe not on the same consistent basis.

I'm not trying to go into the season with poverty WR's and poverty HB's.

[Farley1324]

Seriously, let's look at this

Listed in order of ADP last year according to FFC, and end of season finish: (standard scoring)

1. Adrian Peterson (RB8)
2. Doug Martin (RB57)
3. Jamaal Charles (RB1)
4. Arian Foster (RB44)
5. C. J. Spiller (RB27)
6. Marshawn Lynch (RB4)
7. LeSean McCoy (RB2)
8. Trent Richardson (RB34)
9. Ray Rice (RB29)
10. Calvin Johnson (WR3, would be RB6 if scored as a RB))
11. Alfred Morris (RB15)
12. Matt Forte (RB3)
13. Dez Bryant (WR7)
14. Steven Jackson (RB32)
15. Chris Johnson (RB9)
16. David Wilson (RB300?)
17. Stevan Ridley (RB30)
18. A.J. Green (WR4)


7 of the top 8 WR's taken finished in the top 12 at their position (only Julio Jones and his broken foot did not).

3 of the top 8 RB's taken finished in the top 12 at their position.

And that's typical.

QB's did no better, as the top 3 were Brees, Rodgers, and Manning, and Rodgers' injury pushed him way down.

[kkchop28]

Did 2 mocks both with 7th pick. I'm thinking it's time to jump off the rb/rb bandwagon and hop on the who is gonna produce. Here's my results

1-graham
Dez
Morris
Bush
Crabtree
Hilton
Foles
Ellington

1-lynch
Manning- could have had Marshall here
Gio
Vjax
Patterson
Cam- thought about trade bait potential
Tate
E sanders
Colston

Little rusty, but god the rankings have dropped from last year for most RB

[ChalupaBatman]

Did 2 mocks both with 7th pick. I'm thinking it's time to jump off the rb/rb bandwagon and hop on the who is gonna produce. Here's my results

1-graham
Dez
Morris
Bush
Crabtree
Hilton
Foles
Ellington

1-lynch
Manning- could have had Marshall here
Gio
Vjax
Patterson
Cam- thought about trade bait potential
Tate
E sanders
Colston

Little rusty, but god the rankings have dropped from last year for most RB

Like ur Graham draft. 2nd one would never draft 2 qbs in first six picks. Marshall and Cam would have been better than counting on a trade.

[Sandman33]

Exactly.

You know that old saying that you can't win your league in the first couple of rounds, but you can lose it? Yeah. You want the closest bet to a sure thing at a skill position, and that's Calvin or Graham. Or maybe Peterson. QB's are typically more of a sure thing, if you get one of the upper tier elites (which frankly I think there are only two of this season, though most would say three), but even an elite QB isn't worth as much as any elite at a skill position.

I'm sick of RB's and their stupidly high turnover rate at the top, what is it, like 60%? They get injured far more than the other positions and their production always manages to vary from season to season, for different reasons.

I seriously seriously considered Calvin 1.02 last season, talked about it in these threads, everybody thought it was too high, etc...but how many people took Doug Martin (raises hand), Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, or Trent Richardson in the first round last year? How did that work out? Seriously, think about that. I just listed FIVE RB's whose FFC ADP was in the top 9 overall last year, and none of them were worth it. That is greater than 50% failure rate. And three of the next six RB's taken were Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley, and David Wilson. They all failed miserably compared to that ADP...that's half! 50% failure rate!. It's going to be the same thing this year, I guarantee it. There are going to be first round RB's who flop, and there are going to be more top pick RB's who flop than top pick WR's. For whatever reason. It's a lock.

And you can get a QB1 literally in like round 8. Good luck getting a WR1 in round 8.

Very very true. I had the 8th pick in a 14 team league last year...picked Alfred Morris 1st pick...got burnt. Since RB's are so hit and miss thats why I'd never skip on AP if I had the chance to get him. He and McCoy are very reliable. Charles scares me for some reason. I want him, but the injury risk for him just seems far higher. But after those guys...It would be hard to pass up a receiver you know is good for over 1200 yards and double digit TD's. Gamble on Bell or Stacy to REALLY outproduce a Ben Tate/Rashad Jennings type rb that you can pick up far later? Or pick up 2 receivers quick like Graham and Dez?

But yeah, picking up 2 elite receivers right away really isn't a bad idea anymore. You can spend the next 3 or 4 picks just grabbing RB's, as long as you're getting legit starters that aren't in a timeshare you really should be fine.

[vr4don]

I did the research before last season but as I remember it te's and rb's have the biggest immediate drop off from the top 1-2 and top 10, so they can be more important, but rb's there is a higher risk of injury.

[kingofturtles]

pretyy sure i am going rb/wr the brees or rogers. if not them then rb.

[Sandman33]

nevermind

[MURedHawk235]

Exactly.

You know that old saying that you can't win your league in the first couple of rounds, but you can lose it? Yeah. You want the closest bet to a sure thing at a skill position, and that's Calvin or Graham. Or maybe Peterson. QB's are typically more of a sure thing, if you get one of the upper tier elites (which frankly I think there are only two of this season, though most would say three), but even an elite QB isn't worth as much as any elite at a skill position.

I'm sick of RB's and their stupidly high turnover rate at the top, what is it, like 60%? They get injured far more than the other positions and their production always manages to vary from season to season, for different reasons.

I seriously seriously considered Calvin 1.02 last season, talked about it in these threads, everybody thought it was too high, etc...but how many people took Doug Martin (raises hand), Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, or Trent Richardson in the first round last year? How did that work out? Seriously, think about that. I just listed FIVE RB's whose FFC ADP was in the top 9 overall last year, and none of them were worth it. That is greater than 50% failure rate. And three of the next six RB's taken were Steven Jackson, Stevan Ridley, and David Wilson. They all failed miserably compared to that ADP...that's half! 50% failure rate!. It's going to be the same thing this year, I guarantee it. There are going to be first round RB's who flop, and there are going to be more top pick RB's who flop than top pick WR's. For whatever reason. It's a lock.

And you can get a QB1 literally in like round 8. Good luck getting a WR1 in round 8.

Last year I took a chance and went for WRs earlier than I usually would and ended up taking RBs like lacy, leveon bell, (since i got him late due to his injury), etc. I have never had a better season haha

[GriffinForce]

usually when I do a mock where I get to choose my spot, I like to go between 4-6, but I tried going at 9 in this one to see how I liked the close back to back picks. 10 man league. how'd I do

1. Peyton
2. Doug Martin
3. Alshon Jeffrey
4. Julius Thomas
5. Steven Ridley
6. Percy Harvin
7. Julian Edelman
8. Deangelo Williams

I wasn't crazy about taking peyton in the first but no one else remaining really seemed worth it. I think this team would be bake if Harvin stayed healthy, but it's easier for me to take that risk when it's just a mock lol

[ChalupaBatman]

usually when I do a mock where I get to choose my spot, I like to go between 4-6, but I tried going at 9 in this one to see how I liked the close back to back picks. 10 man league. how'd I do

1. Peyton
2. Doug Martin
3. Alshon Jeffrey
4. Julius Thomas
5. Steven Ridley
6. Percy Harvin
7. Julian Edelman
8. Deangelo Williams

I wasn't crazy about taking peyton in the first but no one else remaining really seemed worth it. I think this team would be bake if Harvin stayed healthy, but it's easier for me to take that risk when it's just a mock lol

In most 10 team mocks I've done you can get Ridley much later . Williams goes much later than 8th. If you like these players although in Williams case you shouldn't you can wait on them.

[kingofturtles]

usually when I do a mock where I get to choose my spot, I like to go between 4-6, but I tried going at 9 in this one to see how I liked the close back to back picks. 10 man league. how'd I do

1. Peyton
2. Doug Martin
3. Alshon Jeffrey
4. Julius Thomas
5. Steven Ridley
6. Percy Harvin
7. Julian Edelman
8. Deangelo Williams

I wasn't crazy about taking peyton in the first but no one else remaining really seemed worth it. I think this team would be bake if Harvin stayed healthy, but it's easier for me to take that risk when it's just a mock lol

funny. I did the same. 9th pick in 10.

graham
dez
morris
bush
desean jackson
roddy white
rivers



ray rice
sanders - i get this guy every draft. hes going to get at least what decker got, prob more cause decker sucks. I seem to be the only one high on him.

[ChalupaBatman]

Yahoo 999 message again. I'm going to be afraid to do a mock on Yahoo the day of a real draft.

[Spitfire92]

did my first mock draft of the season, 1st pick Yahoo 12 man league. (Did 10 Picks)
QB: Rodgers
RB: Charles, Sankey, Rice, F.Jackson
WR: Nelson, Harvin , Patterson, Decker
TE: Reed

[kkchop28]

funny. I did the same. 9th pick in 10.

graham
dez
morris
bush
desean jackson
roddy white
rivers



ray rice
sanders - i get this guy every draft. hes going to get at least what decker got, prob more cause decker sucks. I seem to be the only one high on him.

Sanders is not really a sleeper IMO. Anyone who knows fantasy knows he's going to produce under manning. If ur in a potatoe league then yes I can understand the sleeper aspect.

Current 10 man mock-

Forte
Brees
Gio
Vjax
Fitz
Grabbing Patterson next- I'm in a return yard league so this guys value in as high a RB1/high end 2

[SmurfCrusher]

did my first mock draft of the season, 1st pick Yahoo 12 man league. (Did 10 Picks)
QB: Rodgers
RB: Charles, Sankey, Rice, F.Jackson
WR: Nelson, Harvin , Patterson, Decker
TE: Reed

That's not a bad team at all. Which rounds did you get Sankey and Nelson in?