**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -VI-

[White-Belt]

It has worked for the past year, but what happens now. Sad thing is if they give us the chop 1550-75 on the S&P will be here so quick no one can really escape

Well I always try to play it safe, at resistance it is a sell setup, at support it is a buy setup - see sig

However there is an element of discretion used, if you see strength or weakness in the market, or if there is news pending which could turn things on their head I think it is better to leave it.

Personally I prefer to see a direction and hop in after, it needs to be clear though.

[LaxinAround]

Been killing it with speculatives lately, gotten real lucky.




Bought 4500 shares of SGOC yesterday at $2.1999, sold today at $2.60, for a gain of 18.18% in less than 24 hours.

[GabrielNovar]

Well I always try to play it safe, at resistance it is a sell setup, at support it is a buy setup - see sig

However there is an element of discretion used, if you see strength or weakness in the market, or if there is news pending which could turn things on their head I think it is better to leave it.

Personally I prefer to see a direction and hop in after, it needs to be clear though.

yup agree, though IBD has us in confirmed uptrend. I might start to scale out, as you state it I can always hop in after.

[arem20]

Been killing it with speculatives lately, gotten real lucky.




Bought 4500 shares of SGOC yesterday at $2.1999, sold today at $2.60, for a gain of 18.18% in less than 24 hours.

End well, this will...

[White-Belt]

Been killing it with speculatives lately, gotten real lucky.




Bought 4500 shares of SGOC yesterday at $2.1999, sold today at $2.60, for a gain of 18.18% in less than 24 hours.

Results are results, are you consistent? Consistency implies skill, one offs imply luck.

yup agree, though IBD has us in confirmed uptrend. I might start to scale out, as you state it I can always hop in after.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22935085

Interesting piece on Bernanke's offering this Wednesday.

The article seems to suggest that it is expected he will not do anything drastic to upset the bond market too much, and that in both America, and the UK there is cautious optimism going forward which is in stark contrast to the EU bond markets (your favorite topic lol).

It does state he needs to deflate this bond bubble gently, otherwise all the money rushing out will make it pop - he is gonna have to walk a tightrope tomorrow.

Only other news is that Bernanke is leaving at the end of his term, which puts who in the frame for FED chair?


Edit - whilst I loath seeking alpha I just seen this

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1500...che-here-s-why


Interesting take, wasn't it you Gab who said that the market didn't have an increase in QE priced in?

[LaxinAround]

Results are results, are you consistent? Consistency implies skill, one offs imply luck.

Performance vs DJI the last year and a half. Am kicking myself because I was so busy with school that I was disregarding my portfolio and not trading very much earlier this year. Had a lot of money sitting in cash while half of the large cap stocks out there went up like 50% over the last 6 months. Oh well though, nothing I can do about it now.



The trades that I were making though so far this year have been notbad.jpg as you can see by the spikes in account value. I like low-mid cap pharmaceuticals, so FDA drug approvals and buyouts the things that make my mornings.

[arem20]

Performance vs DJI the last year and a half. Am kicking myself because I was so busy with school that I was disregarding my portfolio and not trading very much earlier this year. Had a lot of money sitting in cash while half of the large cap stocks out there went up like 50% over the last 6 months. Oh well though, nothing I can do about it now.



The trades that I were making though so far this year have been notbad.jpg as you can see by the spikes in account value. I like low-mid cap pharmaceuticals, so FDA drug approvals and buyouts the things that make my mornings.

An important question speculators, stock pickers, and those trading ta should ask themselves: What is the added risk I am assuming, and are my returns in excess of the broader market large enough to validate this level of risk?

In regards to the fed, people really need to understand that tapering =/= tightening. When they do begin to taper, it will be slow and gradual and will be on a meeting to meeting basis. They will probably start by tapering down lets say 15-20 billion in purchases to begin with and see how the markets react. Once they begin tapering, it will probably take a year or so for them to completely stop purchases. Something to watch for is where they start tapering first -- this will have an impact on treasury - mortgage spreads and rates, as well as liquidity in the mbs market if they start there. This will have an impact on certain sectors *hint hint* profitability that would benefit from tapering beginning with mortgage bonds before treasuries due to the spread. As far as raising rates, we probably won't return to normal rates until 2017 and full employment. It blows my mind that people seem to not understand these basic concepts. We are not at the Feds targets for employment or inflation. Why the fck would they just rashly adjust course. Expect all changes to be slow, measured, and adaptive. Also expect markets to be over reactive in the short term and increased volatility.

Also, adjustments by the Fed signal a strengthening economy, something that is fundamentally good for the underlying drivers of the stock market. While risks exist, I would caution anyone considering pulling out of the market to instead sell individual holdings as their price extends above value and then either move the cash into better value opportunities, or only sit on a certain percentage of cash while keeping the majority of their wealth invested. Sell overheated equities, buy underperforming equities, control the urge to sit on the sidelines with more than 25% in cash.

[GabrielNovar]

Results are results, are you consistent? Consistency implies skill, one offs imply luck.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22935085

Interesting piece on Bernanke's offering this Wednesday.

The article seems to suggest that it is expected he will not do anything drastic to upset the bond market too much, and that in both America, and the UK there is cautious optimism going forward which is in stark contrast to the EU bond markets (your favorite topic lol).

It does state he needs to deflate this bond bubble gently, otherwise all the money rushing out will make it pop - he is gonna have to walk a tightrope tomorrow.

Only other news is that Bernanke is leaving at the end of his term, which puts who in the frame for FED chair?


Edit - whilst I loath seeking alpha I just seen this

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1500...che-here-s-why


Interesting take, wasn't it you Gab who said that the market didn't have an increase in QE priced in?

I will comment on this later, so many points I realized after we did not sell-off due to tax reasons in December.

We get a selling event (june swoon/end of QE) and it gets bought up...this dip might be Ben signaling for all to get in while you can before he goes for the mega rally, I firmly believe all shorts need to be killed off before we can take a meaningful pause.

[camdls1]

bernanke wont do a thing, and if he does it will be extremely gradual. cant wait til that bald headed prick and his stupid crying voice are gone. His face gives me the ****s.

[DavidJr74]

$20 from ANF. Oh yea. Don't even own this stock anymore.

and finally the first day I'm in the green since I'm 100% ETFs now. ITOT and SLY are up for me. Can't wait to start pulling in those dividends from these.

[Tekkendo]

The market has moved past the singularity. There is a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. And Japan just demonstrated that QE^100 doesn't prevent crash.

But nevermind that. Why aren't you brave ones loading up on stocks? BTFD!! Market is UP!! Don't let my forecast and 'damn market talk' get between you and your destiny.

[devincanada]

im not sure i understand how the announcement tm will affect the markets.

if they decide to taper their stimulus will markets go down due to lack of guaranteed stability, or should that be treated as a sign of a strengthening economy?

conversely, if they announce an indefinite continuation of stimulus, will that send prices up because of the guaranteed stability?

[arem20]

im not sure i understand how the announcement tm will affect the markets.

if they decide to taper their stimulus will markets go down due to lack of stability, or should that be treated as a sign of a strengthening economy?

conversely, if they announce an indefinite continuation of stimulus, will that send prices up?

With almost complete certainty a movement towards tapering will result in a sell off in the short term at the very least. However, moving forward, tapering will intensify as the underlying economy improves, a good long term result for the economy and the market. The economy without any tail events or really any of the realistic risk scenarios occurring (spike in energy prices, countries dropping out of eu, hillary clinton taking the white house in 2016, etc.), will take until around 2017 at the earliest to get back to full employment and strong wage growth. There will be lots of bumps along the way.

[GabrielNovar]

bernanke wont do a thing, and if he does it will be extremely gradual. cant wait til that bald headed prick and his stupid crying voice are gone. His face gives me the ****s.

Never disrespect Uncle Ben!

The market has moved past the singularity. There is a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. And Japan just demonstrated that QE^100 doesn't prevent crash.

But nevermind that. Why aren't you brave ones loading up on stocks? BTFD!! Market is UP!! Don't let my forecast and 'damn market talk' get between you and your destiny.

But we just had a correction.

[camdls1]

there is a reason this round of QE was given the nickname QE infinity.

[snizzle77]

The market has moved past the singularity. There is a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. And Japan just demonstrated that QE^100 doesn't prevent crash.

But nevermind that. Why aren't you brave ones loading up on stocks? BTFD!! Market is UP!! Don't let my forecast and 'damn market talk' get between you and your destiny.

Well looks who's unbanned....


Oh how I've missed you

[LaxinAround]

Short oil right now... Fingers crossed

[CDub73]

Interested to get your guys opinion on the site seekingalpha

I read it faily often but it seems to be filled with crap at times. Though there are some quality contributors that I follow.

Take what "facts" are said with a grain. SA is better used to just keep track of what's being said about your stock and considering how it'll affect it. Some SA articles have been able to catch "Kool-aid" drinkers that end up tanking or pumping a stock for a bit. Long term might not matter so much, but a short term play may present itself.

The actual information has usually gone full retard though.

[blinkers88]

The market has moved past the singularity. There is a confirmed Hindenburg Omen. And Japan just demonstrated that QE^100 doesn't prevent crash.

But nevermind that. Why aren't you brave ones loading up on stocks? BTFD!! Market is UP!! Don't let my forecast and 'damn market talk' get between you and your destiny.

oh lordy he's back

[Tekkendo]

My sincere advice is :

If you must go long, put trailing stops religiously. BTFD is way over played. When everyone is in on the same gig, it always ends. No exception. Silver at 50, gold at 1900, AAPL at 700.. Market is random, but human behavior in a group is self organizing. All super exponential growth will end. No exception. We are now past the point of singularity. The market will churn, and then falls on its own weight.


Based on all the info, indicators, systems I have or have access to, this is a perfect storm. SPX 1300, 1200, 1050 are all within the realm of possibility.


There are different ways to handle this.

1. You can go aggressive and seek to profit from shorting it. I think my set of tools will allow me to time it within days. I plan to short via going long in the VIX etfs.

2. You can continue to buy good stocks (based on whatever criteria you choose) that are acting well. Set your trailing stops religiously, with no exception.

3. Resist the temptation to BTFD as that game is getting too long in the tooth. Everyone and his grandma are in on it. Too late in the game, IM not so humble fuking opinion. If your dream stocks hit bottom and bounce, fine buy them and set trailing stops. But try not to be a fuking hero to play catch the falling knife. If your great stock is that great, there will be a lot more to run beyond that initial run. Remember, all stocks are bad. They must PROVE themselves.

4. If you must go long, buy some puts as insurance. If SHTF, it eases the pain. If you are too cheap to pay for puts, write some calls to pay for them. Collar strategy can work. It is simply good common sense that after such unexpected good run in the stock market, this is time to be more defensive. Be fearful when everyone is greedy.

5. The correction hasn't even begun. When the SPX hits 1300, 1200, or 1050, THAT is a correction. And you can bet that NO ONE will have the ball to load up by then. All talk and no walk. Fukking gunho and bullish at the top, but turn chickenshiet when the rubber meets the road.


6. The market is bouncing now. It is my belief that this will create the classic dibvergence that precedes all major decline. When that occurs, then it truly cannot get any more precise. It would be a text book perfect pattern.


7. People can dismiss all these, and do the opposite. Go massively long. All in. Long calls, long 3x etfs, long inverse VIX etfs, short puts. Have a ball! Uncle Ben got your back. Aunty Yellen is up next. BTFD with both hands.


8. I share what i know in the hope that it may be of use to some. I don't give a raging f what you do with your money. Blow yourself up for all i care. LOL

[snizzle77]

oh lordy he's back

lmao

[DavidJr74]

Short oil right now... Fingers crossed

Luck is on your side if I'm not mistaken if Oil fluctuates between $90-$100 a barrel and its $98 at the moment?

[GabrielNovar]

My sincere advice is :

If you must go long, put trailing stops religiously. BTFD is way over played. When everyone is in on the same gig, it always ends. No exception. Silver at 50, gold at 1900, AAPL at 700.. Market is random, but human behavior in a group is self organizing. All super exponential growth will end. No exception. We are now past the point of singularity. The market will churn, and then falls on its own weight.


Based on all the info, indicators, systems I have or have access to, this is a perfect storm. SPX 1300, 1200, 1050 are all within the realm of possibility.


There are different ways to handle this.

1. You can go aggressive and seek to profit from shorting it. I think my set of tools will allow me to time it within days. I plan to short via going long in the VIX etfs.

2. You can continue to buy good stocks (based on whatever criteria you choose) that are acting well. Set your trailing stops religiously, with no exception.

3. Resist the temptation to BTFD as that game is getting too long in the tooth. Everyone and his grandma are in on it. Too late in the game, IM not so humble fuking opinion. If your dream stocks hit bottom and bounce, fine buy them and set trailing stops. But try not to be a fuking hero to play catch the falling knife. If your great stock is that great, there will be a lot more to run beyond that initial run. Remember, all stocks are bad. They must PROVE themselves.

4. If you must go long, buy some puts as insurance. If SHTF, it eases the pain. If you are too cheap to pay for puts, write some calls to pay for them. Collar strategy can work. It is simply good common sense that after such unexpected good run in the stock market, this is time to be more defensive. Be fearful when everyone is greedy.

5. The correction hasn't even begun. When the SPX hits 1300, 1200, or 1050, THAT is a correction. And you can bet that NO ONE will have the ball to load up by then. All talk and no walk. Fukking gunho and bullish at the top, but turn chickenshiet when the rubber meets the road.


6. The market is bouncing now. It is my belief that this will create the classic dibvergence that precedes all major decline. When that occurs, then it truly cannot get any more precise. It would be a text book perfect pattern.


7. People can dismiss all these, and do the opposite. Go massively long. All in. Long calls, long 3x etfs, long inverse VIX etfs, short puts. Have a ball! Uncle Ben got your back. Aunty Yellen is up next. BTFD with both hands.


8. I share what i know in the hope that it may be of use to some. I don't give a raging f what you do with your money. Blow yourself up for all i care. LOL

your advice makes a lot of sense,BUT! this is the first time we have seen shorts come out all year. Attempting to bring us down, why wouldn't this be a final push to eliminate all them

EDIT: we haven't seen that final push upwards to make everyone question what is going on. dow 17-18k would seriously make everyone dumbfounded. Right now everyone in the world is expecting us to give back a lot of gains if not collapse. Not sure they get that.

[snizzle77]

is there another way to get exposure to Crude, other than UCO or a leveraged ETF?

[binks09]

is there another way to get exposure to Crude, other than UCO or a leveraged ETF?

Be a doomsday prepper and horde some physical barrels in your backyard.

Jk what are you exactly looking for? You could get exposure to refiners like Chevron, Exxon, and Royal Shell. You could buy some relating to oceanic or rail shipping. Dont forget the pipelines. Funally, lots of drillers an explorer plays available. Lots of exposure out there, pick your poison.

[LaxinAround]

Luck is on your side if I'm not mistaken if Oil fluctuates between $90-$100 a barrel and its $98 at the moment?

Yeah but I'm banking on Bernanke giving me a few hundred bucks of stimulus from this trade lol

[snizzle77]

Be a doomsday prepper and horde some physical barrels in your backyard.

Jk what are you exactly looking for? You could get exposure to refiners like Chevron, Exxon, and Royal Shell. You could buy some relating to oceanic or rail shipping. Dont forget the pipelines. Funally, lots of drillers an explorer plays available. Lots of exposure out there, pick your poison.

Guess I should have been more clear I meant like an oil refiner ETF

[binks09]

Guess I should have been more clear I meant like an oil refiner ETF

Check out etfdb.com

They have an etf screener that is really useful.

[snizzle77]

Check out etfdb.com

They have an etf screener that is really useful.

cool man thank you

[meteoraln]

Check out etfdb.com

They have an etf screener that is really useful.

This is awesome. Been looking for something like this.