Unemployment drops to 7.8%

[dr_D]

Economy added 114,000 jobs to drop the unemployment rate from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September. Labor force increased by 418,000

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[Fire8085]

Where are these jobs being added exactly?

[VBSurfer85]

inb4 doesn't count people who ran out of benefits.


Obama loses even if he wins on this message board.

[stealth_swimmer]

Economy added 114,000 jobs to drop the unemployment rate from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September. Labor force increased by 418,000

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

How could the labor force increase by MORE than the number of jobs added? And how could that possibly lead to LOWER unemployment(if the labor force increases more than the number of jobs added, it means there is higher unemployment)? Am I the only one this isn't making sense to?

[dr_D]

just to clarify: the business establishment survey (non-farm payrolls) employment increased by 114,000. July and August numbers were revised upward by 42,000 and 46,000 respectively.

the household survey (the one used to calculate the unemployment rate) employment increased by 873,000

Most of the job growth came from Healthcare and Transportation.

[Bucher15]

Shocker. Obama gets embarrassed on national TV and all of sudden the unemployment rate magically drops. Hell even MSNBC is calling BS on this.

[Streetbull]

Economy added 114,000 jobs to drop the unemployment rate from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September. Labor force increased by 418,000

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I wonder how many people had to give up hunting for work to get the rate to drop THAT much.

[Streetbull]

How could the labor force increase by MORE than the number of jobs added? And how could that possibly lead to LOWER unemployment(if the labor force increases more than the number of jobs added, it means there is higher unemployment)? Am I the only one this isn't making sense to?

Its a complete scam. For all we know, no jobs were created at all. They keep moving the goal posts -- look at last month. 380,000 people gave up so they vanish, the rate drops to 8.1%. We apparently need 150,000 new jobs per month to break even, we created 115,000 and the rate drops to 7.8%....?????

Our government is falling apart at the seams, getting crazier by the day.

[saloman]

Great news

[AloneNoFriends]

Great news

Even if unemployment dropped to 4% alot of these retards would still find **** to moan about

smh

[Streetbull]

Even if unemployment dropped to 4% alot of these retards would still find **** to moan about

smh

"Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers."

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell...d-jobs-number/

No one dislikes prosperity but when the unemployment numbers go down because of a shyster scam, when people are dropping out of the labor force by the hundreds of thousands and the Obama people crow about that...well, that's wrong and we call it.

[badreligion]

Shocker. Obama gets embarrassed on national TV and all of sudden the unemployment rate magically drops. Hell even MSNBC is calling BS on this.

I'm watching MSNBC right now and they aren't calling BS they are having orgasms . I too would like to know where these so called jobs are being created because just because on paper it says it is down and jobs are being created down't mean in the real world that is true .

[T150]

U WOT M8????

[VBSurfer85]

"Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers."

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell...d-jobs-number/

No one dislikes prosperity but when the unemployment numbers go down because of a shyster scam, when people are dropping out of the labor force by the hundreds of thousands and the Obama people crow about that...well, that's wrong and we call it.

'

I bet if Mittens was president and these numbers came out you would be ecstatic!

[dr_D]

As I said in my other post (post 7) the business establishment survey (the headline jobs number) is not the one used to calculate the unemployment rate. The HOUSEHOLD survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate and that number increased by 873,000.

There was no net drop off in the labor force. It increased by 418,000

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

^^^^ all numbers are thousands ^^^^
so 873 in that link should be read as 873,000. 142,000 should be read as 142,000,000.

[ElMariachi]

LOL.....so they added less jobs than last month but the total unemployment rate takes a much bigger decrease? Sounds legit. They may have overplayed their hand with this one as a lot of people are heavily skeptical.....in B4 unemployment rate drops to 4% at the end of the month, lulz.

[ElMariachi]

"“Complete preelection “massaging” farce. “

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-1...xpectations-82

"U-6 Figures remain unchanged at 14.7%."

[T150]

[TruthandJustice]

At this point if anyone still thinks the unemployment rate the BLS comes up with is anything but complete and utter bull****, then they deserve another four years of Obama. Enjoy Obama and the liberal media whispering sweet nothings to you while the true unemployment rate rises above 20% and the labor participation rate drops below 60% over the next 4 years.

[Streetbull]

'

I bet if Mittens was president and these numbers came out you would be ecstatic!

If the percentage of people working wasn't the lowest since 1983, I'd agree somewhat with you. Great news! But what they are doing is this: if a factory has no jobs to offer and no one in the town comes looking for work, then the unemployment rate must be very low here.

Do you see what's wrong with that?

Or maybe 10 people applied there last month but this month no one applied. So those 10 people are no longer looking for work; they must have found jobs. LOL...wut?

It's crazy!

[Streetbull]

From ElMariachi's link...

[Dr._S._Colbert]

Good breakdown of the numbers here:

The Presidential race just ended: Unemployment drops to 7.8%

- by New Deal democrat

You may stop wringing your hands about the debate Wednesday night. The BLS just reported that in September the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8%. 114,000 jobs were added. President Obama was just re-elected.

We'll have more shortly and will update this post.

-----------

Update 1: The internals aren't totally rosy, but there is some welcome relief here compared with the last few months.

- In addition to adding jobs in September, both July and August payrolls were revised upward, July by 40,000 to 181,000 and August by 46,000 to 142,000. Upward revisions happen in expansions, not recessions.

- Aggregate hours increased by 0.4%. This is a broader measure than the number of jobs and confirms the expansion.

- Average hourly earnings increased by about 0.3%. They are up 1.8% YoY. Depending on how gas prices impact September's inflation report, this might be the first time in over a year that YoY real wages have increased.

- The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.1. This is an element of the LEI. Overtime was flat.

- Government added jobs this month, and as after revisions also added to payrolls in July and August as well.

The internals from the household report were even better. In addition to the drop in the unemployment rate ...

- The number of jobs added in this report rose by 873,000! This report tends to lead the establishment survey at turning points. It just negatived a recession.

- The number of persons "not in the labor force" decreased by 211,000. So the unemployment rate didn't decrease because people gave up looking.

- As a result, the employment to population ration increased by 0.4 to 58.7.

- Last but by no means least, one of the most accurate gauges of layoffs -- a better leading indicator than initial jobless claims, and an element of ECRI's unpublished Short Leading Index, is the number of those unemployed from zero to 5 weeks. It decreased by 302,000. This is totally inconsistent with entering a recession.

-----------

Update 2:

- the alternate U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged workers, did not decline, but remained steady at 14.7%.

- the YoY% change in the number of employed persons, at +1.37%, has been holding generally steady now for almost half a year. While that's not great, the lack of a decline in this metric negatives one of the signs ECRI relied upon as proof of an oncoming recession.

There were a couple of little dark clouds:

- Manufacturing jobs decreased by -16,000. This is a leading indicator and is another confirmation that manufacturing is stalled if not contracting.

- Temporary jobs declined by 100 (yes, one hundred), while August was revised from negative to positive 1,000. Temporary jobs are also a leading indicator for employment, and they have stalled.

There are problems, but this month's report was good as to the economy. Politically, unless there is some bolt out of the blue, Barack Obama's re-election was probably just assured.


From Bonddad: a few notes in addition to NDD's points.


1.) The household survey increase is very important as this is a leading number. After a stagnant summer, we see a big jump.

2.) The upward revisions to previous months data is very positive as well, as this is something that happens in expansions rather than contractions.

3.) Expect to see a few exploding heads regarding the difference between the household and establishment survey. Of course, the fact that these are entirely different surveys may have a little to do with that.

The question for the slow summer is, why? I think the primary answer is the global slowdown we've seen in China and the EU, which has tempered US hiring plans and put people on hold. In the US, we have the fiscal cliff, freezing activity. I think now people have gotten to the point where they can't hold-off hiring any longer. So, rather than doing it in slow pieces, they're doing it all at once.

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2012/10/...ust-ended.html

[built656]

[ALREADY THE SCREAMS ARE BEING HEARD HOW COULD THE FIGUREE DROP BELOW 8% WITH 30 DAYS LEFT BEFORE THE ELECTION.....!!!!! THIS ADMINISTRAION WILL/WOULD DO ANYTHING TO WIN THIS ELECTION....THE CHICAGO THUGS ARE JUST THAT....OUR COUNTRY HAS LOST ITS MORAL HONESTY



QUOTE=dr_D;959430023]Economy added 114,000 jobs to drop the unemployment rate from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September. Labor force increased by 418,000

http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm[/QUOTE]

[Realism]

Awesome, I have a nice bottle of bubbly chilling at home that I'll have to pop open to celebrate the unemployment rate dropping below 8%.

[thorton]

Well, not totally unpredictable. I mean, its been 4 years since the start of the recession.

[dr_D]

conservative media/pundits/politicians are going bonkers over this. It is absolutely ridiculous.
FACT: the U.S government publishes the most respected, widely used economic statistics in the world.

FACT: all employment/unemployment rates (u-1 - u-6) are calculated through the HOUSEHOLD SURVEY.

FACT: THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY surveys households and individuals as to whether they are employed/or seeking work, what type of work, full-time/part time etc.

FACT: The headline jobs number is NON-FARM PAYROLL from the BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY

FACT: THE BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY surveys companies as to whether they hired individuals.

FACT: THE BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY doesn't cover all types of employment which is why the HOUSEHOLD SURVEY is used for unemployment statistics, although it is more volatile.

The NON-FARM PAYROLL data is widely seen as the barometer of the employment situation which is why that data is the most widely talked about, and why that number is the FIRST EMPLOYMENT NUMBER shown in the BLS RELEASE STATEMENT

Is this a good jobs report: Yes, it's better than previous ones. Is it stellar? Absolutely not.

[Forty0zFreedom]

conservative media/pundits/politicians are going bonkers over this. It is absolutely ridiculous.
FACT: the U.S government publishes the most respected, widely used economic statistics in the world.

FACT: all employment/unemployment rates (u-1 - u-6) are calculated through the HOUSEHOLD SURVEY.

FACT: THE HOUSEHOLD SURVEY surveys households and individuals as to whether they are employed/or seeking work, what type of work, full-time/part time etc.

FACT: The headline jobs number is NON-FARM PAYROLL from the BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY

FACT: THE BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY surveys companies as to whether they hired individuals.

FACT: THE BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY doesn't cover all types of employment which is why the HOUSEHOLD SURVEY is used for unemployment statistics, although it is more volatile.

The NON-FARM PAYROLL data is widely seen as the barometer of the employment situation which is why that data is the most widely talked about, and why that number is the FIRST EMPLOYMENT NUMBER shown in the BLS RELEASE STATEMENT

Is this a good jobs report: Yes, it's better than previous ones. Is it stellar? Absolutely not.

You have to admit the timing is a bit lol.

[markymark69]

Its a complete scam. For all we know, no jobs were created at all. They keep moving the goal posts -- look at last month. 380,000 people gave up so they vanish, the rate drops to 8.1%. We apparently need 150,000 new jobs per month to break even, we created 115,000 and the rate drops to 7.8%....?????

Our government is falling apart at the seams, getting crazier by the day.

lol! ITT: CT'ers accuse career BLS staticians of fraud.

Absolutely no way you were ever a mathematician.

[markymark69]

You have to admit the timing is a bit lol.

Que? The announcements are set at the beginning of each year.

http://www.bls.gov/lau/lausched.htm

[PSToolman]

Que? The announcements are set at the beginning of each year.

http://www.bls.gov/lau/lausched.htm

Not the debate, though.