how big of an upset would a mir win be?

[battousai216]

Been reading all the news and posts about this fight, and it seems 99% of people are picking dos santos via ko.

Jds has to be the most dangerous opponent ever on paper. His speed power and chin on the feet leave mir no hope standing. Surely mir could submit him but jds has shown incredible tdd which will be very hard for mir to overcome. Trying to takedown jds may be just as hopeless as trying to stand.

I really can't see how mir wins this. Im a big mir fan but will be shocked if he makes it out of the first. Maybe he can pull gaurd but imo he won't be able to do that to jds without getting lit up on the way in.

So, how big of an upset would this be? Couture sylvia? Gsp serra? I think it would be up there.

[John L]

It would be a significant upset, but no where near Gsp/Serra

[Black_Spit]

It would be a significant upset, but no where near Gsp/Serra

Yeah nothing like that. In fact I think Mir has a good chance, far better than he's getting credit for.

[Road2Perfection]

It should be one of the biggest ones in MMA. Most of the ppl i've talked to say he's got a chance of beating but then i say what? a 2%? because how is he going to take junior down when he's got one of the best TDD in the HW division? At the same time, Junior is well aware of this and he will keep his distance at all times. This means this fight will most likely be a striking match and how many fighters have put JDS in trouble in the past? what about mir?

To me, it would be a huge upset.

[Gomi]

It should be one of the biggest ones in MMA. Most of the ppl i've talked to say he's got a chance of beating but then i say what? a 2%? because how is he going to take junior down when he's got one of the best TDD in the HW division? At the same time, Junior is well aware of this and he will keep his distance at all times. This means this fight will most likely be a striking match and how many fighters have put JDS in trouble in the past? what about mir?

To me, it would be a huge upset.

Agreed

Also on top of JDS having excellent TD defense, mir has never been a TD artist so that furthers his chances even more.

[Cannonsex]

I'd say along the lines of Penn/Edgar I. Guy thats dangerous and has the tools to beat the favorite but no ones giving him the chance.

[mmondo13]

Most likely JDS will win, but it wouldn't be that big of an upset. If Mir could somehow pull off a takedown, the fight could be over in seconds.

[Coach McGuirk]

I'd say along the lines of Penn/Edgar I. Guy thats dangerous and has the tools to beat the favorite but no ones giving him the chance.

for me its not so much mirs tools (because he has what he needs to win).. but his weaknesses. I dont think he can weather the storm if jds lights him up.

[pageh656]

would be a huge upset but mir is a miracle worker so it could happen

[battousai216]

Yeah nothing like that. In fact I think Mir has a good chance, far better than he's getting credit for.

Idk man. How do you see mir pulling it off? I just don't see him being able to get this to the ground and he'll have to box jds.

[pojo18]

I think alot of people are underestimating jds's ground game because we've never seen it. I imagine he'll have good sub defense and a great ability to generate scrambles and return to standing. Even if Mir takes it to the ground I dont see hm keeping it there.

[ArizonaEli]

I don't think it will be a huge upset. Mir has the tools to be a problem for JDS - crisp boxing, decent size and strength, great ground-game. In the past Mir has struggled against wrestlers - JDS isn't a wrestler.

[Apoc]

anyone who gives Mir any sort of chance are delusional.
He's going to sleep within 1 round.

[Black_Spit]

anyone who gives Mir any sort of chance are delusional.
He's going to sleep within 1 round.

I've been around this site for a long time and I've seen a few cases where more than 90+% of posters were convinced that something was a given.

Let's just say the track record isn't very good.

[stoker6913]

I honestly think Mir should try to pull guard and see if JDS is willing to take top position and play that game.

[Vayne]

Mir could have trouble if JDS throws punches in bunches. Mir didn't handle it very well against Big Nog and Carwin. Hard to say who wins though.

[Legbuh]

Nutrabolics for the win... then Lesnar pulls out of summer slam for one more fight...

[DFS200]

Nutrabolics for the win... then Lesnar pulls out of summer slam for one more fight...

This, imagine a world where Mir beats JDS and Lesnar comes back to TKO Mir and reclaim the championship. This is why Frank Mir will not win this fight, it's too much fanta sea.

[battousai216]

I've been around this site for a long time and I've seen a few cases where more than 90+% of posters were convinced that something was a given.

Let's just say the track record isn't very good.

I know what you're saying, but this seems a little different. Mostly the times you are talking about people based there pick soley on the recent win streak and hype, not on actual strengths and weaknesses/ stylistic match up. Here i think stylistically jds is mirs worst nightmare.

And i can't multi quote on stupid phone but @ stake, i agree. He needs to.pull gated or pull a paulharris dive for the leg type move.

[HardGainer82]

When Mir is ON, he can do whatever he wants in that cage. The problem is, you never know when he's going to be on. He could very well just stand there while JDS lands ten unanswered punches on him.

[Peacenukka1129]

id give mir a 20% chance, and i think if it does somehow go to the ground mir will handle it nicely. His only real chances are going to come in the first 2 rounds though. If it goes past that JDS is going to pepper him with shots when mirs cardio declines even the slightest bit

[bignate88]

I'm not sure how Mir is going to handle JDS on the feet. JDS is young and fast and hits hard. Maybe Mir can act like he going to stand with him then shoot in for a TD. I think Mir can tap out JDS fairly easily on the ground. It wouldn't be a huge upset, unless Mir K.O's JDS standing.

[LiftBigEatBig]

Mir will be unable to get the TD and be forced to stand and bang with JDS. Mir either gets KO'ed or loses via points.

[Black_Spit]

When Mir is ON, he can do whatever he wants in that cage. The problem is, you never know when he's going to be on. He could very well just stand there while JDS lands ten unanswered punches on him.

Exactly this.

[Von Brawn]

I'd be shocked if he lasted 5 minutes, let alone 5 rounds.

He can't handle heat and he doesn't have good take-downs. Whoever isn't sipping the UFC marketing kool-aid knows this is JDS' fight to lose

[battousai216]

When Mir is ON, he can do whatever he wants in that cage. The problem is, you never know when he's going to be on. He could very well just stand there while JDS lands ten unanswered punches on him.

I agree, and i think typically mir is "on" when he knows he's the underdog. When he is too confident he tends to get pummeled, i thought hebtook not lightly the second time which i think is why he got blasted because he didn't bother to defend himself.

With jds i think he'll have to know how dangerous he is and fight smart.

[ZenMonkey20]

If Mir upsets JDS, I will stop watching MMA haha

[uchoom]

Mir's best stand up performance was probably against Kongo right? Even if he brought that to the fight pretty JDS would outstrike him with speed, but it is the heavies where the champion's belt can change hands in one punch. Going with JDS but if you've watched mma for long enough you learn that no fight is certain.

[HardGainer82]

Mir's best stand up performance was probably against Kongo right? Even if he brought that to the fight pretty JDS would outstrike him with speed, but it is the heavies where the champion's belt can change hands in one punch. Going with JDS but if you've watched mma for long enough you learn that no fight is certain.

I'd say his best standup performance was against Nog the first time. Although he did surprise the hell out of Kongo, the guy's being exposed as being VERY dependent on his reach lately, and an overrated striker.

[steve38]

No upset at all. I got Mir taking this by sub in the second round.