(High I.Q. miscers only): Probability theory has to be wrong

[godsangina2]

Whenever you hear about some obvious riggng/fixing with coin flips or roulette, people always say "you don't understand probability theory, the odds are always 1 in 2", eg The 14 coin flips in a row in the Super Bowl that were won by the NFC.

But if I flip 100 coins it is very improbable that they will all be heads.

[ant1lg]

Whenever you hear about some obvious riggng/fixing with coin flips or roulette, people always say "you don't understand probability theory, the odds are always 1 in 2", eg The 14 coin flips in a row in the Super Bowl that were won by the NFC.

But if I flip 100 coins it is very improbable that they will be heads.

It depends where you stand.Before you flip the coin, very improbable to have all heads (.5^100). But individually speaking, each one is a 50-50

[DizzySmalls]

Whenever you hear about some obvious riggng/fixing with coin flips or roulette, people always say "you don't understand probability theory, the odds are always 1 in 2", eg The 14 coin flips in a row in the Super Bowl that were won by the NFC.

But if I flip 100 coins it is very improbable that they will all be heads.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

[monsterBEN]

Whenever you hear about some obvious riggng/fixing with coin flips or roulette, people always say "you don't understand probability theory, the odds are always 1 in 2", eg The 14 coin flips in a row in the Super Bowl that were won by the NFC.

But if I flip 100 coins it is very improbable that they will all be heads.

Not sure what you're asking/saying here...

Of course 100 in a row is improbable. Each individual coin flip is 50/50, not the entire 100 as a whole.

[soapy]

i dont understand what the OP is implying, chance of 100 heads in a row is 2^(-100) so yes improbable and this means probability theory is wrong how?

[SiWatson]

full retard mode engaged

[godsangina2]

Not sure what you're asking/saying here...

Of course 100 in a row is improbable. Each individual coin flip is 50/50, not the entire 100 as a whole.

So even though each flip is 50/50, if some guy wins betting on red at the roulette 20 times in a row that is evidence of cheating?

Whenever you read about this in sports, like the example I gave in the OP, people always comment that since it's 50/50 14 in a row isn't improbable.

[bringthelulz]

becuase it has two sides dont mean both weigh equal,
also yes op
If flipprd enough assuming no bias weight
it will be 1:2

[topchefveryrare]

has OP even studied binomial distributions?

what are you trying to say OP

[ChicagoBrah]

Does op even math?

Forgot to take your multi

[godsangina2]

has OP even studied binomial distributions?

what are you trying to say OP

Does op even math?

Forgot to take your multi

I'll have you know I graduated magna cum laude from the stabarella school of applied mathematics you cheeky ****z.

[Coonsmell]

Entered thread expecting OP to have something decent to propose. Left thinking wtf did I just read?

[monsterBEN]

So even though each flip is 50/50, if some guy wins betting on red at the roulette 20 times in a row that is evidence of cheating?

Whenever you read about this in sports, like the example I gave in the OP, people always comment that since it's 50/50 14 in a row isn't improbable.

14 in a row of any 50/50 flip is very improbable. Whoever wrote that is an moran.

[NeverLifted]

strong 16 and 17 year olds ITT

[Malidrax]

lol @ OP for thinking that someone as stupid as him could find a flaw in probability theory

[godsangina2]

lol @ OP for thinking that someone as stupid as him could find a flaw in probability theory

lol the (High I.Q. only) tag always rustles the jimmies of insecure miscers and ensures prompt replies.

[TranKy]

Whenever you hear about some obvious riggng/fixing with coin flips or roulette, people always say "you don't understand probability theory, the odds are always 1 in 2", eg The 14 coin flips in a row in the Super Bowl that were won by the NFC.

But if I flip 100 coins it is very improbable that they will all be heads.

2^14 = 1024 * 16 = roughly 16 000.

It's unlikely but It's nothing of a miracle .

[Killamunkz]

Let's assume something has a 50% chance. While each case is independent, with each successive case the probability of repeating the same event is reduced exponentially.

[surf junkie]

Each coin toss is always 50:50, even if 149 times in a row it lands on heads, the 150th time will still be 50:50.

That is assuming it is 100% probability and it isn't rigged.



Played a dice game with my buddy. He rolled a 1 and a 2 (2 dice). All I had to do was roll a two or greater, with three dice, to win.

I laughed and said "ahh this oughta be easy".

Rolled the three dice.

1 and 1 and 1

What is the probability?

[Overqualified]

you have a 50% (1/2) chance of getting a heads or a tail. to get a second heads you have another 50% (1/2). since both the flips are independent of each other, the formula would be 1/2^n where n is the number of flips.

50/50 getting heads or tails. harder and harder to get straight heads after the first flip though.

[TaxEvade]

math declined retard checking in.

[Knapman]

full retard mode engaged

Came in assuming my iq was low.



Left thinking this.

[bazookasword]

2^14 = 1024 * 16 = roughly 16 000.

It's unlikely but It's nothing of a miracle .

everything you just said is wrong

oh an OP, improbability =/= impossibilty.

incredibly unliklely events will and must occur at some arbitrary point in time (given that time is an infinte resource)
the law of averages of random events is only valid over an infinte number of events

[Nasri1990]

I like turtles

[jmson23]

Whenever you hear about some obvious riggng/fixing with coin flips or roulette, people always say "you don't understand probability theory, the odds are always 1 in 2", eg The 14 coin flips in a row in the Super Bowl that were won by the NFC.

But if I flip 100 coins it is very improbable that they will all be heads.

What? I hope you worded this the wrong way. The probability of 100 heads in a row is (1/2)^(100) which is very small number.

Please respond.

[anonymous]

[mpelto]

ITT: OP discovers apparent flaw in probability theory that the rest of the great mathematicians throughout history managed to overlook. -_-

[mirinbrah247]

Not exactly bro..

Its not 50/50 for each if you are doign multiple numbers.

Example, probability of 5 heads is the probability of it being heads 50/50x5

Yes it is. It's only not some integer 2^-n when TTTTT or HHHHH isn't the outcome.

[jmson23]

Not exactly bro..

Its not 50/50 for each if you are doign multiple numbers.

Example, probability of 5 heads is the probability of it being heads 50/50x5

Not quite. It's to the fifth power, not multiplied by five.

why negative 100?

2^(-100)= 1 / (2^(100)) = (1/2) ^ (100)

[mahousesn]

i dont understand what the OP is implying, chance of 100 heads in a row is 2^(-100) so yes improbable and this means probability theory is wrong how?

This because you have to multiple each trial (1/2)*(1/2)...... until you reach all 100 trials. OP explain /clarify maybe we dont get what you're going for. Or you're just dumb?