**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IV-

[Tekkendo]

Remember when I was warning about the metals being overvalued technically, I was mocked and nobody listened because metals were hyped & in favor? It works on both sides of the fence, buy side and sell side.
http://www.tradersbase.com/2011/09/0...losing-luster/

I feel a sound edge must take into account human psychology, euphoria and panic.

PS: Gold has reverted to the weekly mean and has rounded out/balanced nicely. The risk/reward ratio favors bulls taking a stab here I believe. FWIW of course.

There is a guy who called the bottoms and tops in PMs for the last few decades, almost to the week. I watched him called the tops in 2011, right to the week. He uses nothing but sentiment. Not from those sentiment survey and indicators, but from the endless tradeshows and conferences he attends year around. He is still down 50% in 2011. He doesn't read charts and doesn't sell his holdings.

He called the 2011 year end bottom. He just called this bottom. Double bottom, as it turns out. May be a triple bottom.. We shall see.

[Tekkendo]

I agreed with you on that one, I like too see the metals taking a hit and stocks rising.

Economy is turning south. Bernanke is getting panicky. He wants to keep his job but Romney has said he will not renominate Bernanke. So, guess what Bernanke is gonna do?

[pachovia]

Economy is turning south. Bernanke is getting panicky. He wants to keep his job but Romney has said he will not renominate Bernanke. So, guess what Bernanke is gonna do?

I think your right but I hope your wrong, if your right gold would be a good idea, but gold isn't looking like people expect more money printing.

[cannadian]

You'd be surprised to find brilliant minds out there willing to share their knowledge for free. I found several on finance messageboards/blogs. Hard to spot as the imposters outnumber them.

Agreed - the thing is, what's free to us may make them a lot of money through ads. If someone gives great advice on a blog and it causes thousands of people to visit that blog daily - that person is going to make a lotttt of money just through blogging.

I don't mind sharing my strategy because that's not really my edge. My edge, like many others, cannot be copied by most people. That edge is discipline. It's a confidence that you can only achieve by thorough understanding of what you're doing. It requires being able to go against a basic human instinct. We're wired to believe that a positive result means we're doing something right. It's very difficult to instead, believe that positive results will eventually come when we're actually doing something right. The stock market and casinos are games of intermittent reinforcement, and evolution has not wired us properly to handle outcomes that look random.

Plenty of people have asked me to teach them how to play poker. Only a few ever got over this physiological barrier. Looks like same thing all over again for the market.

I'm really digging your posts brah. As someone who's extensively studied evolutionary biology/evolutionary psychology and is a former poker player (more of a side hobby though than a profession - but I was consistently profitable) I couldn't agree more.

People are designed by nature to only look at the results of our actions/processes, and if those results are positive it reinforces that the process was correct - which in the stock market (much like in poker) the process can be right but the results wrong and vice versa. I've had good results so far in the market, and while I think my strategy (which is like a childish form of yours I'd say) is solid, I recognize that it is likely due to luck - I don't want any profits to go to my head and poison me by making me think I'm way better than I am leading to more risk taking etc you know?

The good thing about trading is every one will have a different opinion. Your edge could be my Achilles heel and vice versa. There are so many participants that if you had a replicable edge you could easily share it without repercussion.

That's what I love about investing/trading man. There are just SO many different approaches to it, and it really ties together many different life skills.

For example: I think my study of evolutionary psych, chess, and poker have given me a slightly different perspective of the market than many people and if I can work my ass off to develop my tools to match some of the guys in this thread hopefully I can start to exploit that perspective in the next few years.

Damn I love this game, haha.

[auron990]

Why are a few posters here playing with the VXX today?

[NiR]

Why do you consider that cheating? Unless you knew the IR person and/or paid them to post in advance I don't see how it's cheating. Just curious.

i guesss cheating isnt the right word. exploiting is. not everyone has the programming knowledge (i certainly dont), to do that. I want to know what other forms of value research your looking for. Something like the one he mentioned is pretty smart but just doesnt seem as practical for the regular person. Or maybe i can just make meteorain do all that stuff and give me the info lol.

[NiR]

Well publicly known facts is somewhat subjective, right? I think you have a pretty good idea of what I've been talking about. Though there are research techniques that don't require a lot of capital, nor strong connections. However, they will require a lot of time and hard work which most people aren't willing to put in.



I don't consider it cheating whatsoever...

Maybe if we ever meet in person I'll explain those methods.

when will you be free for some drinks in the city(nyc). we can get a little group together to meet.

[Tekkendo]

brb, exploiting pennies on the dollar via leverage and then lose all historic profit on unforeseen (bad model assumptions) tail-risk event.

Ha... welcome to the world of modern finance.

On one hand they increase the liquidity in the market. On the other hand, they also heighten instablility and the risk of shock into the system.

But fuk'em. I have it covered. Short term trading to front-run them. Trend following to ride them. Deep value to take advantage of their herd stupidity.

[Sirtitan]

And you better pray the little woman doesn't pay attention to your business cuz you are gonna get it at home too when you are done getting it at the office.

I think my wife refreshes the portfolio more than I do.

On a worse note, I had a close family member ask me to liquidate them in the december 2011 bottom.

[Sirtitan]

There is a guy who called the bottoms and tops in PMs for the last few decades, almost to the week. I watched him called the tops in 2011, right to the week. He uses nothing but sentiment. Not from those sentiment survey and indicators, but from the endless tradeshows and conferences he attends year around. He is still down 50% in 2011. He doesn't read charts and doesn't sell his holdings.

He called the 2011 year end bottom. He just called this bottom. Double bottom, as it turns out. May be a triple bottom.. We shall see.

What's his conjecture on % of the US population that's long? Faber mentioned in 79-80, longs were equivalent to # of evangelists. That would require about 100 million longs today.

[Tekkendo]

What's his conjecture on % of the US population that's long? Faber mentioned in 79-80, longs were equivalent to # of evangelists. That would require about 100 million longs today.

He judges by the enthusiasm of the crowd at industry conferences and tradeshows, the market response to drilling news released by companies (it is bottom when drill result comes up 5g/ton and market treats it as April Fool's joke ), and the premium on a couple of physical funds.

[Tekkendo]

I think my wife refreshes the portfolio more than I do.

On a worse note, I had a close family member ask me to liquidate them in the december 2011 bottom.

Ha.. now you know how Mike Burry felt.

[AFDestruction]

There is a guy who called the bottoms and tops in PMs for the last few decades, almost to the week. I watched him called the tops in 2011, right to the week. He uses nothing but sentiment. Not from those sentiment survey and indicators, but from the endless tradeshows and conferences he attends year around. He is still down 50% in 2011. He doesn't read charts and doesn't sell his holdings.

He called the 2011 year end bottom. He just called this bottom. Double bottom, as it turns out. May be a triple bottom.. We shall see.

Who are you referring to here?

[Tekkendo]

Who are you referring to here?

Uncle Bob.

No not Baghdad Bob.

Bob Moriarty.

He is down 50% last year. So don't blame me if you lose money listening to Bob.

[Sirtitan]

He judges by the enthusiasm of the crowd at industry conferences and tradeshows, the market response to drilling news released by companies (it is bottom when drill result comes up 5g/ton and market treats it as April Fool's joke ), and the premium on a couple of physical funds.

Premiums on cef phys etc... indicating go time right now.

I may have to put on my wool suit and hit up some conferences

[adambomb]

Profit taking on apple is the reason for the decrease?

[AFDestruction]

Uncle Bob.

No not Baghdad Bob.

Bob Moriarty.

He is down 50% last year. So don't blame me if you lose money listening to Bob.

Actually never heard of him. I usually try to follow a handful of analysts I typically agree with, and try to come to my own consensus given the arguments they present. Thank ya sir.

[mcichocki]

There is a guy who called the bottoms and tops in PMs for the last few decades, almost to the week. I watched him called the tops in 2011, right to the week. He uses nothing but sentiment. Not from those sentiment survey and indicators, but from the endless tradeshows and conferences he attends year around. He is still down 50% in 2011. He doesn't read charts and doesn't sell his holdings.

He called the 2011 year end bottom. He just called this bottom. Double bottom, as it turns out. May be a triple bottom.. We shall see.

Calling tops & bottoms is great for the ego, I must admit. The difference I suppose is I can create a strategy with stops based on support & resistance. Those that blindly follow top/bottom calls are likely to be hurt badly. This is one of the reasons I don't give exact prices or strategies, it's a personal risk kinda of game for me.

Speaking of resistance the DOW is back at it's prior triple top which IMO is likely bullish considering the triple top was confirmed yet bears weren't able to do much with the momentum shift. I wouldn't buy here but if resistance breaks I'd look for long entries...JMHO anyhow.

[RandomWalk]

You'd be surprised to find brilliant minds out there willing to share their knowledge for free. I found several on finance messageboards/blogs. Hard to spot as the imposters outnumber them.

Depends on what kind of knowledge you're talking about, certainly core strategy is never shared and if it is that person is either extremely naive or has some kind of angle. There's maybe only one finance forum on the internet where anything of substance is consistently posted, however even there you will have to read between the lines.

[Tekkendo]

Actually never heard of him. I usually try to follow a handful of analysts I typically agree with, and try to come to my own consensus given the arguments they present. Thank ya sir.

Who do you follow?

[LaxinAround]

Just picked up 200 shares of YNDX @ 23.09, it got rocked hard today.

Just sold it @ 25.00, solid 8.2% in 24 hours

[RandomWalk]

On one hand they increase the liquidity in the market. On the other hand, they also heighten instablility and the risk of shock into the system.

This is incorrect, have you attempted to think this problem through yourself? Or are you regurgitating what you've read/heard?

An increase of liquidity typically means better price resiliency and more depth in the order book. When you have more depth, larger orders can be sustained without taking massive 'shocks to the system'. Now resiliency ties into stability, meaning shifts in your price won't affect trading as a whole. Now just for fun, you can think about when these things are removed in an illiquid market, then you're starting to get toward heightened instablility and the risk of shock into the system.

[Tekkendo]

This is incorrect, have you attempted to think this problem through yourself? Or are you regurgitating what you've read/heard?

An increase of liquidity typically means better price resiliency and more depth in the order book. When you have more depth, larger orders can be sustained without taking massive 'shocks to the system'. Now resiliency ties into stability, meaning shifts in your price won't affect trading as a whole. Now just for fun, you can think about when these things are removed in an illiquid market, then you're starting to get toward heightened instablility and the risk of shock into the system.

You apparently don't know anything about trading. If you have actually examined the price moment of stocks as measured in terms of a proprietary indicator ( which of course I would not tell you what it is), for the last few decades, it would be as clear as daylight that the influx of idiots who buy and sell for reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with the fundamentals of the underlying business, have injected boat load of noise into what used to be orderly ebb and flow of the market. But since you don't access to my proprietary indicator, you wouldn't know what i am talking about.

In the old days, without these lobotmized products from quant finance, participants in the market were people who actually KNOW the underlying business. And stocks have a higher tendency to follow a logical accumulation and distribution flow based on business insight. You have far less idiots buying and selling en mass for no reason whatsoever.

[RandomWalk]

You apparently don't know anything about trading. If you have actually examined the price moment of stocks as measured in terms of a proprietary indicator ( which of course I would not tell you what it is), for the last few decades, it would be as clear as daylight that the influx of idiots who buy and sell for reasons that have nothing whatsoever to do with the fundamentals of the underlying business, have injected boat load of noise into what used to be orderly ebb and flow of the market. But since you don't access to my proprietary indicator, you wouldn't know what i am talking about.

Eh, I'd like you to prove me wrong but it seems like all I'll get out of you is passive aggressive comments.

[Sirtitan]

This is incorrect, have you attempted to think this problem through yourself? Or are you regurgitating what you've read/heard?

An increase of liquidity typically means better price resiliency and more depth in the order book. When you have more depth, larger orders can be sustained without taking massive 'shocks to the system'. Now resiliency ties into stability, meaning shifts in your price won't affect trading as a whole. Now just for fun, you can think about when these things are removed in an illiquid market, then you're starting to get toward heightened instablility and the risk of shock into the system.

I'd agree if it was done without leverage.

[NumberOneStunna]

Profit taking on apple is the reason for the decrease?

Option expiration today. Hence the slow movement. They'll likely walk it down to 600 in the coming minutes. I absolutely hate this because if you bought next weeks option this will eat away at your premium which is why I'll wait until Monday. I don't expect a huge gap up in the morning.

[ClinicallyBored]

Question: Fooling around today paper trading on ToS and I could not figure out what the hell was going on. BTO Call during a rally and I was losing money. Weird. So later on I tried BTO Put during a dip and again lost profit?

Did it 2 more times with same results. So I tried selling calls/puts and same results. It seemed everything was in reverse! WTF?

Anybody follow what Im saying. Is it the paper trading or something else going on that Im unaware of?

lol god I feel like a retard for asking but Im confused.

[AFDestruction]

Who do you follow?

For PM's I like Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, James Rickards, Michael and Rich Checkan at ASI, Steve Sjuggerud sometimes has nuggets of wisdom though I don't always agree, Adrian Day, anything I hear from Van Simmons.... hmm those are probably my biggest guys. You?

[RandomWalk]

I'd agree if it was done without leverage.

Would you say leverage contributes to factors that Tekkendo was talking about? Because I think any MM shop will have to use leverage, but obviously they'll need strong leverage control.

[Tekkendo]

Eh, I'd like you to prove me wrong but it seems like all I'll get out of you is passive aggressive comments.

You dont even know what I am referring to. lol

If you actually know about trading and investing, and not just the execution part of trading and investing, you would know what I am talking about.

People in the business or have extensive investing experience understand what happens when a stock is owned by knowledgeable investors, ie in strong hands, and when a stock is owned by a crowd of fools, ie in weak hands. Stocks in strong hands don't get jerked around.


P/S . MC would know what i am talking about. Some futures are pricky. Some are less so. The pricky ones are dominated by numbnuts jerking in and out every second.