**OFFICIAL** Trading and Investing Thread- Part -IV-

[aberry33]

Doubt this works but here's my main spreadsheet.

[adambomb]

Heres my portfolio rocking some pretty good gains lately =)

What ya guys think?

3D Systems Corp 24%
Activision Blizzard 19%
Stratasys 26%
Petrobras 19%
North American Palladium 10%
Cash 2%

Cash position will grow overtime.. Dividends plus regular contributions.

Are you enrolled in a DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) or are the dividends simply added to your cash account or do you receive a check in the mail?

[drewbagel423]

Posting a couple trades in JOY that I'm looking at:
http://sellingpremium.blogspot.com/2...redit-put.html

[meteoraln]

Can you eleborate more as to why it makes less sense to do this with individual companies? Not knocking, but pachovia mentioned above it's good to do with mutal funds so it seems you both are thinking the same thing so I want to know how you guys are coming to that conclusion.

I'm a firm believer that given a desired rate of return, there is a very specific maximum price that you can pay to achieve that return, based on expected future cash flows. The purpose of DCA of buying specified amounts at periodic intervals is that you will receive the average price, not the best price. This is great if you have no idea what the company is actually worth. DCA will lower your variance, which is perfect for the risk averse. You will receive an "average price" over time. However, an "average price" does not necessarily mean "good price". Every home transaction before the crash was a fair market value price. Few buyers, if any, would today conclude that they got a "good" price.

If you decide you will pay no more than $X for a company, you're no longer using DCA when you stop contributing as soon as the company goes above $X in price.

[aberry33]

I'm a firm believer that given a desired rate of return, there is a very specific maximum price that you can pay to achieve that return, based on expected future cash flows. The purpose of DCA of buying specified amounts at periodic intervals is that you will receive the average price, not the best price. This is great if you have no idea what the company is actually worth. DCA will lower your variance, which is perfect for the risk averse. You will receive an "average price" over time. However, an "average price" does not necessarily mean "good price". Every home transaction before the crash was a fair market value price. Few buyers, if any, would today conclude that they got a "good" price.

If you decide you will pay no more than $X for a company, you're no longer using DCA when you stop contributing as soon as the company goes above $X in price.

Makes sense, thanks for the response.

[pachovia]

here is my latest aapl trade, blue arrows are buys. This systems is the best mean reversion system I've traded, 70% wins.

copy the image url and open it in a new tab the pic is much bigger.

[cannadian]

If you're playing with an account based/backed by a different currency I suppose I would be more open to it. Of course I'd have to study the dilution and habits of their government...is there a country that has strong currency these days? I'm not a huge FX guy so I know a lil bit but not enough to comment very intelligently on other currency value. Having spent almost 6 years of my life studying and watching how companies d!ck over shareholders (like GM for example) it's fair to call me leery.

To go a step further...if it's an American company using offshore labor I have issues with them. Well not them directly because they are clearly good capitalists. I have an issue with our government allowing tax breaks and assistance to "job creators" when they aren't creating jobs here. I imagine you all share the same frustration as I on that topic?

If you don't like investing in companies simply because of the dollar devaluation then what are you doing to protect yourself from that?

Seems to me like there would be little to no difference between someone making 20% returns per year off value investing through oil companies vs someone making 20% returns per year through daytrading?

[pachovia]

Can you eleborate more as to why it makes less sense to do this with individual companies? Not knocking, but pachovia mentioned above it's good to do with mutal funds so it seems you both are thinking the same thing so I want to know how you guys are coming to that conclusion.

I'm going to get pounded for saying this, but I'll also follow it up with my explanation. Yes, I do pay commissions. I use Sharebuilders automatic investment program. I can either pay $4 a transaction, or $12 a month for up to 12 investments. So I pay the $12 a month and typically make 10-12 investments each month. Each paycheck I buy more shares of 5-6 companies. I currently hold 8 companies.

I realize this is far from optimal, but I do it because I know my personality. If I'm not putting anything real on the line I'm much less likely to follow through with it long term. The thought of saving little by little each check and then investing once or twice a year, or paper trading for a year or two it isn't appealing to me. It's a flaw I have, but it's just how I am. I look at the cost of the program as one less pizza each month or something along those lines which is basically nothing. Technically, yes it is eating into my portfolio, but if I would have not started this back in December, odds are I would not be involved in all of this as much as I am now (or at all) and would definitely have nowhere near amount the money I have in my account that I do now. The money would have been blown on who knows what.

I'm sure I don't do as much research before I buy a stock compared to some in here, but I definitely do feel that I put work and thought into it beforehand. Part of the reason is I'm still learning and getting a feel for exactly what it is I should be focusing on. I've been at this since December, and instead of just jumping in hog wild and going crazy with all sorts of different types of trading, or heavy speculating throughout the majority of my portfolio, I feel I've played it pretty safe for now and at the same time allowed a little bit of speculation for growth. I've listed the stocks I'm holding in this thread in the past, but I'll throw them out there again. Hell I'll even put my excel chart out there that I currently work from. I don't really ever see anything excel posted here so I'm not sure if you can even do it but I'll try after this post.

HAL - 15.3%
KOG - 14.7%
XOM - 13%
MSFT - 13%
HUM - 12.5%
BAC - 11%
HD - 9.5%
Cash - 7.2%
SSN - 3.8%

There are a couple of speculative tilted plays in there, but overall I feel it's fairly safe as I continue to learn. The automatic investment plan also automatically re-invests all dividends. I've already gotten a few of them and even though they are pathetically measly amounts at this point, it's still a good feeling seeing those deposits start to roll in.

I think its still a good plan, with fundamentally sound stocks. Probably better then trading for most people, 90% of people loose money trading.

[adambomb]

How is everyone feeling about Intel?

Personally, I feel like their stock is incredibly cheap that pays a divi along with huge future potential. Overall, they are solid company investing heavily in R&D....

[sh4de]

Are you enrolled in a DRIP (Dividend Reinvestment Plan) or are the dividends simply added to your cash account or do you receive a check in the mail?

Dividends are just added to account under Cash then I decide where best to allocate. Was in a DRIP, but since I live in Canada if I had a ADR from Europe or whatever the dividend would come like 6 months later, by then I may have already got out of the position and would be holding on to like 2 or 3 shares. The bank would sell the shares commission free though after I called them though.

How is everyone feeling about Intel?

Personally, I feel like their stock is incredibly cheap that pays a divi along with huge future potential. Overall, they are solid company investing heavily in R&D....

Solid blue chip stock, wish I pulled the trigger under 20. Trading near its 52 week high right now I wouldn't be a buyer at this level, especially with May coming.

[Nikhiln25]

Heres my portfolio rocking some pretty good gains lately =)

What ya guys think?

3D Systems Corp 24%
Activision Blizzard 19%
Stratasys 26%
Petrobras 19%
North American Palladium 10%
Cash 2%

Cash position will grow overtime.. Dividends plus regular contributions.

I'm a fan of petrobras. Looking to get in my self

[mcichocki]

If you don't like investing in companies simply because of the dollar devaluation then what are you doing to protect yourself from that?

Seems to me like there would be little to no difference between someone making 20% returns per year off value investing through oil companies vs someone making 20% returns per year through daytrading?

Daytrading would be more damning because of the fees...for sure. I am trying to focus more on tangibles and staying liquid. It could come back to bite me in the ass...especially the liquid part but that's a risk I'm willing to take. If they don't bring jobs back AND we stay with USD as our currency I will be in a good position to get in on the cheap in several different areas of interest.

[sh4de]

I'm a fan of petrobras. Looking to get in my self

I just bought it a few days ago, the whole Bovespa is tanking because of Brazilian inflation. Petrobras also had some problems with their offshore rigs, small leaks; they seem to be okay now. Also their investments in Argentina were threatened by the government nationalizing the oil and gas sector, but that too seems to be progress. I think its a good time to buy Petrobras on the cheap.

Honestly aside from PAL, I re-did my whole portfolio with stuff I'd be comfortable holding long-term about a week ago. Already made massive gains on the 3d Printing stuff.

[Barn01]

Heres my portfolio rocking some pretty good gains lately =)

What ya guys think?

3D Systems Corp 24%
Activision Blizzard 19%
Stratasys 26%
Petrobras 19%
North American Palladium 10%
Cash 2%

Cash position will grow overtime.. Dividends plus regular contributions.

To save us some time, could you indicate days held beside each of the %

[cannadian]

Daytrading would be more damning because of the fees...for sure. I am trying to focus more on tangibles and staying liquid. It could come back to bite me in the ass...especially the liquid part but that's a risk I'm willing to take. If they don't bring jobs back AND we stay with USD as our currency I will be in a good position to get in on the cheap in several different areas of interest.

Tangibles like commodities? Gold/silver and the like?

I guess what I'm saying is that I agree that I think the dollar is being devalued quite a bit, but I don't see how sitting on cash would help that? Wouldn't it be good a good idea to invest in oil companies or something? If you find a good one that's growing faster than the market is you'll get returns just from that, and if the dollar is devalued oil prices should rise right? So it could provide returns while hedging for inflation at the same time?

Sorry I'm still new to this, this is kind of my strategy but if there's something wrong with it I'd definitely like to hammer it out you know?

[MrOJ]

Better late than never! I'll be starting to get serious in a month when my exams are over. Only got £1k at the moment, but i want to build up a pretty decent portfolio when I start my placement year.

[mcichocki]

Tangibles like commodities? Gold/silver and the like?

I guess what I'm saying is that I agree that I think the dollar is being devalued quite a bit, but I don't see how sitting on cash would help that? Wouldn't it be good a good idea to invest in oil companies or something? If you find a good one that's growing faster than the market is you'll get returns just from that, and if the dollar is devalued oil prices should rise right? So it could provide returns while hedging for inflation at the same time?

Sorry I'm still new to this, this is kind of my strategy but if there's something wrong with it I'd definitely like to hammer it out you know?

The only true "wrong" is not having a strategy or failing to execute your strategy because of emotion. If you're wrong you learn from the loss and move on. If you're smart you don't put all eggs in one basket and kill your chance of continuing when a loss hits.

If you think about cash, and if you consider there may again be monetary contraction then you'd be best off if you amass cash while it's flowing and set it aside for when it's not flowing. I'm a saver at my core anyhow and I can assure you in deflation it was AWESOME to have reserves. People were so desperate when cash stopped flowing that I grabbed a ton of stuff I wanted at bargain prices. In deflation oil would be punished as it was in the last crash. IF we see deflation the most likely safe bet at this point would be cash...even more than bonds after you consider bond yields are near 0 and could go negative.

Just what works for me...your mileage may vary and there's no wrong way to do what works for you.

Added---
The major risk with cash is of course failing to keep up with inflation. The hidden risk that concerns me is a shift to an alternate currency and a USD death...that would be earth shattering for many though so it's not likely at this stage it seems.

[cannadian]

The only true "wrong" is not having a strategy or failing to execute your strategy because of emotion. If you're wrong you learn from the loss and move on. If you're smart you don't put all eggs in one basket and kill your chance of continuing when a loss hits.

If you think about cash, and if you consider there may again be monetary contraction then you'd be best off if you amass cash while it's flowing and set it aside for when it's not flowing. I'm a saver at my core anyhow and I can assure you in deflation it was AWESOME to have reserves. People were so desperate when cash stopped flowing that I grabbed a ton of stuff I wanted at bargain prices. In deflation oil would be punished as it was in the last crash. IF we see deflation the most likely safe bet at this point would be cash...even more than bonds after you consider bond yields are near 0 and could go negative.

Just what works for me...your mileage may vary and there's no wrong way to do what works for you.

Added---
The major risk with cash is of course failing to keep up with inflation. The hidden risk that concerns me is a shift to an alternate currency and a USD death...that would be earth shattering for many though so it's not likely at this stage it seems.

Thanks man, that was really informative. Need to spread some reps around before hitting you again

Honestly, I think I've probably picked up the equivalent of a book or 2's worth of knowledge/understanding just from following this thread for a few months/tapping everyone's brain hah. It's pretty awesome, especially since I don't really have any friends who are interested in building wealthn that I can bounce thoughts off with etc

[NumberOneStunna]

I've been in on NFLX calls since it hit it's lows and re-tested with a bounce, Monthly 105 calls at .90/contract. NFLX looks like it'll be making an earnings run. Wouldn't surprise me to see it at 120, at the same time wouldn't suprise me if their was a mass exodus and we saw 80 prior to next week.

Got out of my NFLX monthly 105 calls at 3.50. Nice gains and nice pop. It'll probably get to 110 by opex but I don't really feel like waiting.

A lot of it was fueled by calls being closed. It's very important to look at the open interest. The big players know exactly what they're doing, and know how to bring a stock down adn cause panic selling. Once that occurs it's over, but they will accumulate on the cheap. AAPL will rebound this week, or Monday the latest. It's way too early to tell, and way too risky to buy calls or puts at this time unless you're a gambler that likes to scalp a few bucks when everything can be taken away from you in a matter of seconds.

Just like I suspected, the big boys would snag cheap shares and rally the eff out of AAPL. This was the perfect time to take the stock up because sentiment was waning and a lot of bears started appearing out of no where. This was the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Easy 2-500% gainers from the open. Gotta admit though, I was pretty tempted to buy puts when it dropped right off the bat to the low 570s, but just waited to see what would happen then made my move as it recovered $10 off the lows.

Isn't that strategy called a straddle, not a strangle? Either way this is a sound strategy for playing AAPL with minimal risk especially with earnings coming up next week.

Straddle, my bad was typing from my phone.

[mcichocki]

Thanks man, that was really informative. Need to spread some reps around before hitting you again

Honestly, I think I've probably picked up the equivalent of a book or 2's worth of knowledge/understanding just from following this thread for a few months/tapping everyone's brain hah. It's pretty awesome, especially since I don't really have any friends who are interested in building wealthn that I can bounce thoughts off with etc

This thread lately has been incredible. We had a few generations of it where there was bickering and drama but it's turned pretty productive, in part because of questions like you're asking.

I learn stuff every day about myself, the markets, from old traders and newer guys like you asking questions. The day you think you know it all is the day you fall on your a$$ and get checked IMO. Life is about balance and humility...the market amps that up x100 it seems.

[RandomWalk]

Lol don't ever buy options that are pennies, in simulation or in real life. Try to get out at break even setting limit order at what you paid. Buy as many long strangles as you can on AAPL. Equal long calls and long puts at the same strike, for may expiry. Sit back an watch yourself win the competition and the best part is, it doesn't matter what apple does as long as it remains volatile.

Well, as spot moves you lose exposure and you're also exposed to the higher moments as well. So with a straddle/strangle, there's a bit more to worry about if your intention is to trade vol.

[sk1nnyphagg0t]

Tangibles like commodities? Gold/silver and the like?

I guess what I'm saying is that I agree that I think the dollar is being devalued quite a bit, but I don't see how sitting on cash would help that? Wouldn't it be good a good idea to invest in oil companies or something? If you find a good one that's growing faster than the market is you'll get returns just from that, and if the dollar is devalued oil prices should rise right? So it could provide returns while hedging for inflation at the same time?

Sorry I'm still new to this, this is kind of my strategy but if there's something wrong with it I'd definitely like to hammer it out you know?

Why do you think that the dollar is being devalued? If anything the dollar is gaining strength just take a look at the ForEx markets. With the impending problems in the EU with spanish and italian bond yields rising and austerity measures only hurting their economies pushing deficits down at the expense of their citizens, the EUR/USD should FALL. This would mean the dollar is gaining strength relative to a basket of all other currencies. For the time being this trade is relatively stable as there is very high resistance in the EUR/USD at about the 1.2945 level as it hasn't fallen below here since mid-march. Many traders on the Street have complex derivatives and take bets as the trade nears this point pushing it higher. However, if the situation in Europe were to materialize further and investor fears regarding further bailouts and the possibility of Spanish Banks needing to be bailed out and the level falls below 1.2945 the EUR/USD trade could go into a tailspin. This would strengthen the dollar. The Fed also targets 2.0% inflation and although the recent reports have shown the CPI trending higher the Fed thinks there is sufficient slack in the economy that Year end inflation numbers will not be far off from 2.0% (safe and stable currency appreciation). Just watch out for better long term buys and always look for value. (Low P/E and PEG)

[Consciousness]

Just my opinion.. everybody playing AAPL recently, watch out below to $430 it's not going to be pretty.

[aberry33]

Earnings question.

HAL reports today. Looks like they are reporting EPS of 68 cents, a 21% increase from the same quarter a year ago. They also posted a 30% increase in revenue.

However, analysts expected 85 cents a share and HAL had a $300 million charge for estimated losses due to the 2010 gulf oil spill. HAL says they then earned 88 cents a share.

When they post their official numbers, I'm assuming it will be the 68 cents per share? And if so, even though both EPS and revenue seemed to have good increases I'm guessing odds are it would go down some since it missed analysts expectations by a decent amount?

It's up in pre-market so I'm assuming when the analysts came up with the 85 cents they weren't factoring in the oil spill losses, so in Wall Streets view HAL beat expectations?

[mcichocki]

Why do you think that the dollar is being devalued? If anything the dollar is gaining strength just take a look at the ForEx markets. With the impending problems in the EU with spanish and italian bond yields rising and austerity measures only hurting their economies pushing deficits down at the expense of their citizens, the EUR/USD should FALL. This would mean the dollar is gaining strength relative to a basket of all other currencies. For the time being this trade is relatively stable as there is very high resistance in the EUR/USD at about the 1.2945 level as it hasn't fallen below here since mid-march. Many traders on the Street have complex derivatives and take bets as the trade nears this point pushing it higher. However, if the situation in Europe were to materialize further and investor fears regarding further bailouts and the possibility of Spanish Banks needing to be bailed out and the level falls below 1.2945 the EUR/USD trade could go into a tailspin. This would strengthen the dollar. The Fed also targets 2.0% inflation and although the recent reports have shown the CPI trending higher the Fed thinks there is sufficient slack in the economy that Year end inflation numbers will not be far off from 2.0% (safe and stable currency appreciation). Just watch out for better long term buys and always look for value. (Low P/E and PEG)

How did the US banks recapitalize? Where did the money come from? Currency dilution is akin to inflation & devaluing. You're looking at FX charts but that doesn't reflect the spending power of the USD on the streets entirely. It shows the USD compared to another currency. If you put a piece of $hit in either hand is one turd really any more attractive than the other? LOL

The fact that we see US bond yields near 0, near 0 interest rates for this long, a ripping stock market and yet the banks are sitting on TRILLIONS because there are no qualified borrowers are big warning signs IMO.

[NumberOneStunna]

Got out of AAPL once it went over the 10 day at 619 and change. I didn't want to get too greedy and hold past, in case the profit taking and bears would show up. And they did show up.

Had some 130 WYNN calls I've been holding, got out of those when WYNN was at 132 flat and bought 130 puts. Pattern for WYNN has been to break out over 130s then slowly creep back down to 125.

Edit: Reason why I like WYNN so much is because generally it makes most of it's gains through Gaps. The theory of gaps fill most of the time is definitely true with this bad boy. Check out the chart and see how often WYNN gaps up and gaps down.

[sh4de]

The fact that we see US bond yields near 0, near 0 interest rates for this long, a ripping stock market and yet the banks are sitting on TRILLIONS because there are no qualified borrowers are big warning signs IMO.

How do you plan to make money off this call? Seems like quite the ballsy one for sure... I wouldn't wanna be a short this year, in anything but natty gas lol.

[mcichocki]

How do you plan to make money off this call? Seems like quite the ballsy one for sure... I wouldn't wanna be a short this year, in anything but natty gas lol.

I never said go short though & I'm not telling others how to time anything...that's not my job and would be foolish. I'm merely stating facts, don't shoot the messenger. LOL
Shorting natural gas is ballsy IMO, at this stage of the game anyhow. The trend is your friend unless you get in late...risk/reward IMO is in favor of bulls in the mid-long term.

Do you disagree with the facts I posted? Are you suggesting I posted items that are opinion? If you agree they are facts do they not concern you at all?

[drewbagel423]

Sold $ISRG May 545/540 credit put spreads on the earnings pop.
http://sellingpremium.blogspot.com/2...40-credit.html

[guest]

Silly question...that I'm probably way over thinking, but I was trying to figure out what weeklies can be used for. So, I was reasoning that if I wrote weekly strangles ATM (on anything, but I'll use AAPL just as a frame of reference) and closed them out 3 days later - I basically walk away with a chunk of decay every time.

What is the flaw in my logic? I know there has to be one, but I can't figure out what it is.