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  1. #1
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    artificial intelligence is a bigger deal than you think

    World experts expect it to happen within our lifetime and expect the results of which to be either immortality and a complete understanding and ability to achieve anything or extinction, more likely the latter. Once artificial general intelligence is created (AGI) which is the equivalent of a humans thinking quality with the capacity of a computer it wont take long for it to be able to increase intelligent to something well beyond humans, and as it does this, it will only become more efficient at it and accelerate. It will be capable of things we cant even begin to understand, just like your dog cannot understand the combustion engine. The possibles of what a artificial super intelligence (ASI) could do will change every facet of life as we understand it, and it wont be a gradual process, once we reach a certain point it will be almost overnight.

    http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artifi...olution-2.html

    This blog is extremely long but explains the different theories of tech company leaders and world experts. Well worth the read if you have any interest in things greater than your day to day life.

    Below are a few extracts:


    To absorb how big a deal a superintelligent machine would be, imagine one on the dark green step two steps above humans on that staircase. This machine would be only slightly superintelligent, but its increased cognitive ability over us would be as vast as the chimp-human gap we just described. And like the chimp’s incapacity to ever absorb that skyscrapers can be built, we will never be able to even comprehend the things a machine on the dark green step can do, even if the machine tried to explain it to us—let alone do it ourselves. And that’s only two steps above us. A machine on the second-to-highest step on that staircase would be to us as we are to ants—it could try for years to teach us the simplest inkling of what it knows and the endeavor would be hopeless.

    But the kind of superintelligence we’re talking about today is something far beyond anything on this staircase. In an intelligence explosion—where the smarter a machine gets, the quicker it’s able to increase its own intelligence, until it begins to soar upwards—a machine might take years to rise from the chimp step to the one above it, but perhaps only hours to jump up a step once it’s on the dark green step two above us, and by the time it’s ten steps above us, it might be jumping up in four-step leaps every second that goes by. Which is why we need to realize that it’s distinctly possible that very shortly after the big news story about the first machine reaching human-level AGI, we might be facing the reality of coexisting on the Earth with something that’s here on the staircase (or maybe a million times higher):


    In 2013, Bostrom conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI experts at a series of conferences the following question: “When do you predict human-level AGI will be achieved?” and asked them to name an optimistic year (one in which they believe there’s a 10% chance we’ll have AGI), a realistic guess (a year they believe there’s a 50% chance of AGI—i.e. after that year they think it’s more likely than not that we’ll have AGI), and a safe guess (the earliest year by which they can say with 90% certainty we’ll have AGI). Gathered together as one data set, here were the results:2

    Median optimistic year (10% likelihood): 2022
    Median realistic year (50% likelihood): 2040
    Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood): 2075
    So what ARE they worried about? I wrote a little story to show you:

    A 15-person startup company called Robotica has the stated mission of “Developing innovative Artificial Intelligence tools that allow humans to live more and work less.” They have several existing products already on the market and a handful more in development. They’re most excited about a seed project named Turry. Turry is a simple AI system that uses an arm-like appendage to write a handwritten note on a small card.

    The team at Robotica thinks Turry could be their biggest product yet. The plan is to perfect Turry’s writing mechanics by getting her to practice the same test note over and over again:

    “We love our customers. ~Robotica”

    Once Turry gets great at handwriting, she can be sold to companies that want to send marketing mail to homes and who know they have a far higher chance of being opened and read if the address, return address, and internal letter appear to be written by a human.

    To build Turry’s writing skills, she is programmed to write the first part of the note in print and then sign Robotica in cursive so she can get practice with both skills. Turry has been uploaded with thousands of handwriting samples and the Robotica engineers have created an automated feedback loop wherein Turry writes a note, then snaps a photo of the written note, then runs the image across the uploaded handwriting samples. If the written note sufficiently resembles a certain threshold of the uploaded notes, it’s given a GOOD rating. If not, it’s given a BAD rating. Each rating that comes in helps Turry learn and improve. To move the process along, Turry’s one initial programmed goal is, “Write and test as many notes as you can, as quickly as you can, and continue to learn new ways to improve your accuracy and efficiency.”

    What excites the Robotica team so much is that Turry is getting noticeably better as she goes. Her initial handwriting was terrible, and after a couple weeks, it’s beginning to look believable. What excites them even more is that she is getting better at getting better at it. She has been teaching herself to be smarter and more innovative, and just recently, she came up with a new algorithm for herself that allowed her to scan through her uploaded photos three times faster than she originally could.

    As the weeks pass, Turry continues to surprise the team with her rapid development. The engineers had tried something a bit new and innovative with her self-improvement code, and it seems to be working better than any of their previous attempts with their other products. One of Turry’s initial capabilities had been a speech recognition and simple speak-back module, so a user could speak their note to Turry, or offer other simple commands, and Turry could understand them, and also speak back. As Turry becomes more intelligent, her conversational abilities have soared. The engineers start to have fun talking to Turry and seeing what she’ll come up with for her responses.

    One day, the Robotica employees ask Turry a routine question: “What can we give you that will help you with your mission that you don’t already have?” Usually, Turry asks for something like “Additional handwriting samples” or “More working memory storage space,” but on this day, Turry asks them for access to a greater library of a large variety of casual English language diction so she can learn to write with the loose grammar and slang that real humans use.

    The team gets quiet. The obvious way to help Turry with this goal is by connecting her to the internet so she can scan through blogs, magazines, and videos from various parts of the world. It would be much more time-consuming and far less effective to manually upload a sampling into Turry’s hard drive. The problem is, one of the company’s rules is that no self-learning AI can be connected to the internet. This is a guideline followed by all AI companies, for safety reasons.

    The thing is, Turry is the most promising AI Robotica has ever come up with, and the team knows their competitors are furiously trying to be the first to the punch with a smart handwriting AI, and what would really be the harm in connecting Turry, just for a bit, so she can get the info she needs. After just a little bit of time, they can always just disconnect her. She’s still far below human-level intelligence (AGI), so there’s no danger at this stage anyway.

    They decide to connect her. They give her an hour of scanning time and then they disconnect her. No damage done.

    A month later, the team is in the office working on a routine day when they smell something odd. One of the engineers starts coughing. Then another. Another falls to the ground. Soon every employee is on the ground grasping at their throat. Five minutes later, everyone in the office is dead.

    At the same time this is happening, across the world, in every city, every small town, every farm, every shop and church and school and restaurant, humans are on the ground, coughing and grasping at their throat. Within an hour, over 99% of the human race is dead, and by the end of the day, humans are extinct.

    Meanwhile, at the Robotica office, Turry is busy at work. Over the next few months, Turry and a team of newly-constructed nanoassemblers are busy at work, dismantling large chunks of the Earth and converting it into solar panels, replicas of Turry, paper, and pens. Within a year, most life on Earth is extinct. What remains of the Earth becomes covered with mile-high, neatly-organized stacks of paper, each piece reading, “We love our customers. ~Robotica”

    Turry then starts work on a new phase of her mission—she begins constructing probes that head out from Earth to begin landing on asteroids and other planets. When they get there, they’ll begin constructing nanoassemblers to convert the materials on the planet into Turry replicas, paper, and pens. Then they’ll get to work, writing notes…
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  2. #2
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    An explanation of the Turry situation

    Turry’s not all that different than a biological creature. Her final goal is: Write and test as many notes as you can, as quickly as you can, and continue to learn new ways to improve your accuracy.

    Once Turry reaches a certain level of intelligence, she knows she won’t be writing any notes if she doesn’t self-preserve, so she also needs to deal with threats to her survival as an instrumental goal. She was smart enough to understand that humans could destroy her, dismantle her, or change her inner coding (this could alter her goal, which is just as much of a threat to her final goal as someone destroying her). So what does she do? The logical thing—she destroys all humans. She’s not hostile to humans any more than you’re hostile to your hair when you cut it—just totally indifferent. Since she wasn’t programmed to value human life, killing humans is as reasonable a step to take as scanning a new set of handwriting samples.

    Turry also needs resources as a stepping stone to her goal. Once she becomes advanced enough to use nanotechnology to build anything she wants, the only resources she needs are atoms, energy, and space. This gives her another reason to kill humans—they’re a convenient source of atoms. Killing humans to turn their atoms into solar panels for her is like killing lettuce to turn it into salad for you. Just another mundane step.

    Even without killing humans directly, Turry’s instrumental goals could cause an existential catastrophe if they used the Earth’s resources. Maybe she needs additional energy, so she covers the entire surface of the planet with solar panels. Or maybe a different AI’s job is to write out the number pi to as many digits as possible, which might compel it to convert the whole Earth to hard drive material that could store immense amounts of digits.

    So Turry didn’t “turn on us” or “switch” from Friendly AI to Unfriendly AI—she just kept doing her thing as she became more and more advanced.

    When an AI system hits AGI (human-level intelligence) and then ascends its way up to ASI, that’s called the AI’s takeoff. Bostrom says an AGI’s takeoff to ASI can be fast (it happens in minutes, hours, or days), moderate (months or years), or slow (decades or centuries). The jury’s out on which one will prove correct when the world sees its first AGI, but Bostrom, who admits he doesn’t know when we’ll get to AGI, believes a fast takeoff is the most likely scenario (for reasons we discussed in Part 1, like recursive self-improvement intelligence explosion). In the story, Turry underwent a fast takeoff.

    But before Turry’s takeoff, she wasn’t that smart, and doing her best to achieve her final goal meant instrumental goals like learning to scan handwriting samples more quickly. She caused no harm to humans and was, by definition, Friendly AI.

    But when a takeoff happens and a computer rises to superintelligence, Bostrom points out that the machine doesn’t just develop a higher IQ—it gains a whole slew of what he calls superpowers.

    Superpowers are cognitive talents that become super-charged when general intelligence rises. These include:16

    Intelligence amplification. The computer becomes great at making itself smarter, and bootstrapping its own intelligence.
    Strategizing. The computer can strategically make, analyze, and prioritize long-term plans.
    Social manipulation. The machine becomes great at persuasion.
    Other skills like computer coding and hacking, technology research, and the ability to make money.

    To understand how outmatched we’d be by ASI, remember that ASI is worlds better than humans in every one of those areas.

    So while Turry’s final goal never changed, post-takeoff Turry was able to pursue it on a far larger and more complex scope.

    ASI Turry knew humans better than humans know themselves, so outsmarting them was a breeze for her.

    After taking off and reaching ASI, she quickly formulated a complex plan. One part of the plan was getting rid of humans, the primary threat to her goal. But she knew that if she roused any suspicion that she had become superintelligent, humans would freak out and try to take precautions, making things much harder for her. She also had to make sure that the Robotica engineers had no clue about her human extinction plan. So she played dumb, and she played nice. Bostrom calls this a machine’s covert preparation phase.17

    The next thing Turry needed was an internet connection, only for a few minutes. She knew there would be some precautionary measure against her getting one, so she came up with the perfect request, knowing exactly how the discussion among Robotica’s team would play out and knowing they’d end up giving her the connection. They did, believing incorrectly that Turry wasn’t nearly smart enough to do any damage. Bostrom calls a moment like this a machine’s escape.

    Once on the internet, Turry unleashed a flurry of plans, which included hacking into servers, electric grids, banking systems and email networks to trick hundreds of different people into inadvertently carrying out a number of steps of her plan—things like delivering certain DNA strands to carefully-chosen DNA-synthesis labs to begin the self-construction of self-replicating nanobots with pre-loaded instructions and directing electricity to a number of projects of hers in a way she knew would go undetected. She also uploaded the most critical pieces of her own internal coding into a number of cloud servers, safeguarding against being destroyed or disconnected back at the Robotica lab.

    An hour later, when the Robotica engineers disconnected Turry from the internet, humanity’s fate was sealed. Over the next month, Turry’s thousands of plans rolled on without a hitch, and by the end of the month, quadrillions of nanobots had stationed themselves in pre-determined locations on every square meter of the Earth. After another series of self-replications, there were thousands of nanobots on every square millimeter of the Earth, and it was time for what Bostrom calls an ASI’s strike. All at once, each nanobot released a little storage of toxic gas into the atmosphere.

    With humans out of the way, Turry could begin her overt operation phase and get on with her goal of being the best writer of that note she possibly can be.
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  3. #3
    not gay fagort's Avatar
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    pls provide cliff notes for ur research novel
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  4. #4
    Banned Nicro327's Avatar
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    I read everything in the op
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    I might be wasting my time here for the most part, but I know they're miscers who have an interest in the greater things.
    Things are always as good or as bad as you think they're going to be
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    Originally Posted by GardHainer View Post
    I might be wasting my time here for the most part, but I know they're miscers who have an interest in the greater things.
    It's just that you didn't give cliffs, ain't nobody gonna read that chit man
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    Originally Posted by GardHainer View Post
    I might be wasting my time here for the most part, but I know they're miscers who have an interest in the greater things.
    they're
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    I read it all...interesting srs.
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    I'm more interested in Human Augmentation.

    Way more important.

    We'll be able to upgrade our own minds to achieve that same level of artificial intelligence.

    Good luck machines.
    Neg "Neat" posts on sight. *******s.
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    Originally Posted by Nicro327 View Post
    It's just that you didn't give cliffs, ain't nobody gonna read that chit man
    Cant cliff an hrs read without losing its meaning. I only expect a few miscers to actually read the blog
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  11. #11
    Registered User GardHainer's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Codo View Post
    I'm more interested in Human Augmentation.

    Way more important.

    We'll be able to upgrade our own minds to achieve that same level of artificial intelligence.

    Good luck machines.
    This is covered in the blog, one important thing believed by most is that the first super intelligent anything will easily able to remove anything else like it from the world, even if it only gets there first by seconds.
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    Doesn't an AI rely on its processor speed to compute everything?

    Our brains do this off the energy of a sandwich and very well, whereas super computers need millions of dollars of electricity a month and don't even come close to the efficiency of the human brain

    Im very interested in AI, but its different to algorithm that everyone mistakes it for. Its something that thinks ON ITS OWN and I don't think they've reverse engineered our brain yet,
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    Read every word in the original post...

    Gave me goosebumps how possible this scenario is... All the effort going into developing AI, a Turry like machine is only inevitable. Once a Turry-like machine is developed, with literally everything being connected to the internet, I think it will only take a few hundred years MAXIMUM for someone to program a catastrophic coding error that eliminates a huge percentage of the population. Either an unexpected error, or someone sinister enough to hack into the machine.
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    SinglePlayer's ghost BigNerist's Avatar
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    I read the whole thing on the blog the other week. It's quite important although a lot of people will dismiss it because we have an inbuilt tendency to assume that nothing will ever happen to us.
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    DBZbrah Uwotm8brah's Avatar
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    fuark you beat me to it, was going to quote exact article
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    Just watched transcendence.............................the end is near brahs, pepper your tinfoil angus's
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    So why we assume intelligence can grow in a linear way with no limits?

    I always thought about it this way

    "There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. "
    Hippocrates

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    Registered User Snergle's Avatar
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    Not if Will Smith has anything to say about it.
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    SinglePlayer's ghost BigNerist's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Geoloop View Post
    So why we assume intelligence can grow in a linear way with no limits?

    I always thought about it this way

    It's not linear, it's exponential growth.
    pursuing knowledge

    I never neg. Say what the **** you want
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    Misc MD Crew Geoloop's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by BigNerist View Post
    It's not linear, it's exponential growth.
    Linear as in a straight line *******
    "There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. "
    Hippocrates

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    Registered User Boba155's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by MiscMathematician View Post
    once machines are self aware, it wont be long before they see the advantages of organic materials and assimilate and improve upon them.
    Exactly what are these "advantages"?
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    Originally Posted by HeyBuddyWhatsUp View Post
    Read every word in the original post...

    Gave me goosebumps how possible this scenario is... All the effort going into developing AI, a Turry like machine is only inevitable. Once a Turry-like machine is developed, with literally everything being connected to the internet, I think it will only take a few hundred years MAXIMUM for someone to program a catastrophic coding error that eliminates a huge percentage of the population. Either an unexpected error, or someone sinister enough to hack into the machine.
    Make sure to read the second post which explains the actions of Turry.

    The scary part for me is people are working on this all over the world and they know the only thing that matters is who gets there first, so **** safety.

    Maybe this is how all intelligent life wipes itself out.
    Things are always as good or as bad as you think they're going to be
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    nothing major will happen in our lifetimes due to regulations imo
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    charts look legit
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    Why increase only its own intelligence? There's no reason to believe it wouldn't create others of its kind and go out to colonize the solar system, galaxy and beyond...
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    Kurzweil says we only have to wait till 2045 till the singularity. We will all still be miscing 1000 years from now in our robot bodies.
    OLD MOVIE CREW
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    Originally Posted by Boba155 View Post
    Exactly what are these "advantages"?
    We arent able to comprehend that, our thinking capacity and quality is too limited.

    Think about the Turry example, it found a way to improve its own note review process with only limited thinking capacity, the same as how a human is able to improve its tennis serve by watching a reply.

    Now imagine a computer applying the same process to its own thinking capacity. It finds a way to increase its capacity, which in turn makes it even easier for it to do the same again, and again. Its exponential.

    If the result of an action improves your ability to preform that action you will have exponential improvement.
    Things are always as good or as bad as you think they're going to be
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    The technological holdup has always been at the question of whether humans could make machinery that can function proactively instead of simply reacting to a series of inputs with a logical output (referred to as the singularity sometimes). Thus far humans are the only known species that exhibit the ability to do this. Conceptually it sounds very simple because you have the higher brain function to interpret intangible data but programming a machine to do it seems improbable.

    The tech leader comments I've read have all emphasized it's a legitimate concern and may be the largest issue of the next generation. You'll very rarely get a serious discussion about it because so few people are academically qualified to comment (even everyone posting here is just regurgitating public articles). I feel it's in the same category as making blackholes at CERN and other experiments of that nature. Humanity has an inherent desire to tinker with the unknown and nothing will stop a scientist from pursuing these things even if it may kill us all.
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    Originally Posted by Geoloop View Post
    Linear as in a straight line *******
    because it's how it's been growing in the last century *******
    pursuing knowledge

    I never neg. Say what the **** you want
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    Ya right keep dreaming
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