It's that time of year to fire up the old meat grinder. Camps are about to open, mags are long off the presses and there's a dozen threads about draft strategy starting to pop up.
We've primed the pump with the sleeper-study... Time to chew some of the meat off the bone.
The last couple of years we've run this thread with some pretty serious success for the regular posters. As the season progresses the strategy study will obviously shift from Draft strategy to Waiver wire commodities.
Please make note of any kind of unique scoring system or roster requirements. If your league is a PPR, note it at the TOP of your post. If your league starts 2 QB's, Note it at the top of your post, if Passing TD's are worth 6 instead of 3, and you're asking a QB ranking question, note it in your post.
While I might be called away with my new job frequently, I know there is a powerful cadre of experienced Fantasy Footballers who have really gone above and beyond the call in past years to help everyone ring the FF dinner bell every Sunday.
|
-
07-23-2010, 06:41 AM #1
***Official Fantasy Football Advice Thread***
6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-23-2010, 08:41 AM #2
- Join Date: Aug 2008
- Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
- Posts: 5,556
- Rep Power: 1771
alright guess I'll start it off. I've got a big hole in my starting offense in my big keeper league. (10ypp, .5ppr, 6pptd). I need a starting RB or WR right away. we start 1Qb, 3 RB/WR flex, 1 WR/TE, and 1 TE slot. My starting lineup looks like this so far (last years positional rank in parentheses)
QB- Shaub (4th)
RB-Pierre Thomas (21st)
WR-Desean Jackson (1st)
WR-Randy Moss (4th)
TE-Shiancoe(9th)
I've got a couple guys on my bench that I'm waiting for (hester and Donald brown), but I'd really like a proven guy until donald brown is ready. The top few players that weren't kept are as follows:
WR Ginn Jr. (24th)
WR Driver (26th)
WR Meachem (27th)
RB Hightower (22nd)
RB Bradshaw (28th)
so theres some marginal talent out there. Hightower, to me, seems like the best option. I've got the 11th overall pick out of 12, so I'm kind of wondering where to target him. I know Ryan Mathews will be gone #1 so thats out of the question too. I plan on picking up a few young guys later in the draft like Hardesty, ben tate, Golden tate, etc. but I'd really like a guy that can put up a few points right away. thanksJaguars and Diamondbacks +
1500 +
ACE Certified Personal Trainer
Squat twice as much as I weigh crew
Forever skinny crew
-
07-23-2010, 08:45 AM #3
-
07-23-2010, 09:00 AM #4
-
-
07-23-2010, 10:52 AM #5
First off... I would just toss Ginn off that list... He's at best going to be the #3 WR for the 9'ers in a Run based offense. Unless you get points for him returning kicks (He's looked AWFUL in passing drills at MC's.) Then he's probably more headache than he'll be worth.
As for Driver... I think this is the year he starts giving way to younger talent, like a Jordy Nelson or James Jones... When you consider that this is a keeper we're talking about, I think it DQ's him from this list.
Meachum would step up to the top of the list for sure.
As for Hightower... If beanie wells busts or gets hurt... Hightower is a stud.
Otherwise I think you have to put Bradshaw ahead of him... Hopefully Bradshaw gets his healthy back 110%... And when Jacobs gets hurt re-re-again, like he always does... Then you've got a potent back with possible starter potential!6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-23-2010, 10:57 AM #6
-
07-23-2010, 11:20 AM #7
repped for posting requirements, scoring and roster.
I will continue that in this thread, and I will ignore any post that does NOT include that.
So there ya have it folks, an easy 39k reps your way, just ask a question and give me the basic requirements!
ok, so out of the list, we can ignore Ginn. You need to have a league that gives good points for returns if you even consider Ginn. He may not even start as a WR3 on his own team. Driver is too old.
Meachem is a breakout waiting to happen. Snatch him up. Hightower and Bradshaw just aren't going to be any more reliable than Donald Brown, and both are less talented with more talented RBs in front of them than Brown, who simply needs experience, as he is far more talented than Addai. If I had to rank them, here's how I'd do it
1) Meachem
...
...
...
2) Bradshaw
3) Hightower
4) Driver
-
07-23-2010, 11:26 AM #8
Well if someone wants to JUST talk sleepers... I'm going to leave the sleepers thread open.
http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showth...#post5124882336'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
-
07-23-2010, 11:30 AM #9
-
07-23-2010, 11:58 AM #10
Oh yeah... We don't need the old think tank. It's got some good reference info so there's no sense in me locking or deleting it... But it's just better for the health of the boards to not turn it into a bloated big thread that turns itself over like Ferris Buhler's Odometer at 10K posts!
6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-23-2010, 12:13 PM #11
Okay... So here's a debate:
League Stats
-Keeper/Dynasty Builder League
-Salary cap of $500 with Auction Draft
-Max contract length you can hold a player is 3 years
-Scoring system is your standard 1/10 rec-rush 1/20 pass... TD's are 6 and 3 for passing... No PPR
I can pick any 6 from this list of keepers. I think I know what I'm going to do, but always good to have another pair of eyes on it!
(* denotes a player who is in his final year)
Matt Ryan: $46
Shonn Greene $8
D-will $10*
J-stew $51
Miles Austin $7
V-Jax $8*
S. Smith (NYG) $7
Vernon Davis $3
Quick Notes: TE's are highly prized in our league if I throw Vernon back I will end up paying in the Mid $20-$30 range to get a comprable TE back.
I am also public enemy #1 after 4 bowl trips in 8 years, if I drop J-stew I will have to pay more to get him back.
Big names going back in the Talent pool this year:
P. Manning
Brees
Brady
Rivers
A.D.
Turner
S-Jax (Do Not Want)
Ryan Grant
Andre Johnson
Fitzgerald
Randy Moss
Reggie Wayne
Calvin Johnson
Roddy White
Brandon Marshall
Greg Jennings
So clearly WR and Big name QB have more depth than #1 RB in this draft class.6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-23-2010, 01:41 PM #12
RB depth is lacking, especially if your league is RB-hungry, I'd be hard pressed to lose any of your RBs. Ryan is too expensive IMHO, but the QBs are going to be too damn expensive.
Greg Jennings might be a decent pickup because of his down season last year, but you know your league better than I do
-
-
07-23-2010, 02:15 PM #13
Yeah I've got a real acheing feeling that Matt Ryan is going to take that breakout step this year.
However with my high powered free salary cap space... I can probably grab a big QB and still get Ryan back for a similar price.
So with that in mind I'm thinking
Greene
D-will
J-Stew
Austin
Smith (NYG)
V. Davis
Then Target one of the Elite QB's (On the logic that I'll throw him back at the end of this year.)
An Emerging young QB (Like Ryan, Flaaco, Henne) to take over the reigns next year
One of the high end rookie RB's (Like Mathews, Tate or Spiller)
One of those elite WR's like Jennings or Megatron
A sleeper WR (Like Aromashodu or Wallace)
And then toss a bunch of remaining cash at a stud Defense with an early Bye week (Like the Vikings)6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-23-2010, 02:23 PM #14
-
07-23-2010, 02:28 PM #15
Yeah I figure if you gotta own a tandem that's the one to own. Better that Tandem than say Felix and Marion... Or Bush and McFadden etc... Plus if either one of them gets hurt, the other becomes a clear cut #1 RB!
*****
As for Roddy White... In Conjunction with my Matt Ryan "Breakout" predictions... I think this will be a "Career Year" for Roddy White.
Even if I'm wrong... Short of him getting hurt... I think he's still going to finish in the Top 10 of WR's.
If I can get him on my squad instead of Jennings or Megatron... I'll be happy!6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-23-2010, 02:48 PM #16
- Join Date: Apr 2007
- Location: Florida, United States
- Age: 40
- Posts: 5,272
- Rep Power: 76677
Shonn Greene $8
D-will $10*
J-stew $51
Miles Austin $7
S. Smith (NYG) $7
Vernon Davis $3
those are the 6 i'd keep in that leauge
thats 86$ for 6 guys, gives you a good amt of $ to play with to fill the team, and for a shot in the dark at WR grab a guy like James Jones from GB as if/when driver slows done, he should be getting the ballInch by Inch is a Sinch
*MMC 4 life*
Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Crew
-
-
07-23-2010, 03:22 PM #17
- Join Date: Aug 2007
- Location: Windsor, Ontario, Canada
- Age: 41
- Posts: 535
- Rep Power: 2035
Shonn Greene $8
D-will $10*
J-stew $51
Miles Austin $7
S. Smith (NYG) $7
Vernon Davis $3
I think these are the 6 you keep.
J-Stew, while one of the heftier prices you listed there, will next year be probably the most sought after RB in non-ppr.
Stud RB's are generally at a cost of 25% of your salary cap.. even at $51 you're looking at a great deal.
Pair Shonne Greene with him and you've got a ridiculous 1-2 TD punch for the next few years.
Throw Ryan back in for now, get him back for the same cost if not less with what's going to be available.I'm lost~
-
07-23-2010, 10:11 PM #18
- Join Date: Aug 2008
- Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
- Posts: 5,556
- Rep Power: 1771
thanks for the help nai and naab. Would it be crazy to target Meachem or bradshaw with the #11 overall pick in the redraft?? I imagine the first few rounds will be very veteran heavy since there's not many big name rookies this year other than the obvious mathews pick.
Also I love stocking up on the rookie LB's. picked Cush last year and he scored 3rd in our system. speaking of which the scoring system is as follows:
1 point per solo tackle (2 point bonus every 5 tackles)
.5 pp tackle assist
3 pp INT
2 pp FF
3 pp fumble recovery
4 pp safety
2 pp pass defense
so there are a lot of ways to rack up the points for defenders, especially LB's. we've got 2 LB slots and an IDP slot, so basically 3 starting LB slots. I've got Cush (3rd last year, but 6 game suspension fuks me), Kirk Morrison (9th), Dansby (24th), and Durant (37th, but banged up last half of the year). the unkept player pool is headlined by Daryl smith (17th, would lmao if I got the whole starting jags LB unit) and Dhani Jones (22nd). the obvious rookie is mcclain. He's in contention for my selections at #11 or #14 overall. My question is where do you guys rank the other rookie LB's? I've got them like this
1. McClain
2. Sean Lee
3. Weatherspoon
4. Spikes
5. Daryl washington
this is tough pre-training camp because guys like spikes and lee would do much better in the middle, wheras washington would do good as WLB. but only when the training camp dust settles will we be able to know who is starting where.
I'd do this as well. you pretty much have to either keep both dwill and jstew or don't keep either, cause their both decently productive when both are healthy, but if one goes down, you've got a surefire elite back with a minimal investment.Jaguars and Diamondbacks +
1500 +
ACE Certified Personal Trainer
Squat twice as much as I weigh crew
Forever skinny crew
-
07-24-2010, 05:30 AM #19
I would probably put Weatherpsoon at the top of the LB group. If he starts at WLB is he is going to rack up a ton of tackles, he blitzes pretty well too. I told someone in another thread that Spikes will be a situational player, offeses will look to isolate him on a quicker RB TE or slot WR in some instances and while he is a beast against the run, he can keep up with those guys. Sean Lee should be decent, but wait till camp is over to fins out what exactly he is doing. McClain should be the second LB, lot od tackles coming to him. I wouldnt worry about the other guys right now.
Weatherspoon
McClain
Spikes
others
-
07-24-2010, 08:48 AM #20
- Join Date: Aug 2008
- Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
- Posts: 5,556
- Rep Power: 1771
Don't know if you guys have heard, but Welker is slated to NOT go on the PUP list and is getting cleared to go for training camp. This bodes well for Moss' production this season, as he will see less attention over the top, as well as obviously welkers production. This hurts Edelmans stock, cause he was going to be starting slot if welker was unable to go for the first 6 weeks. however, if your in a league that counts punt and kick return yards, edelman is the guy that looks to be taking over the PR duties for welker. bilecheck is smart enough not to put a guy coming off of ACL surgery out there on the most dangerous situation of the game.
hmm interesting. you're a Falcon fan aren't you? probably know more about the LB situation then me. and yeah i have been keeping up with a few cowboys message boards and it looks like he won't be competing for brooking's starting MLB job just yet. I'm still ranking him probably 3rd because brooking is old and its only a matter of time before he becomes a liability on the field.
Spikes' situation is a tough one too, just because the patriots ILB core is really crowded. I predict he will be really inconsistent this season. some games putting up 8 tackles and a sack, other games barely on the field. however, i like his long term potential as a starting ILB.Jaguars and Diamondbacks +
1500 +
ACE Certified Personal Trainer
Squat twice as much as I weigh crew
Forever skinny crew
-
-
07-24-2010, 08:52 AM #21
Regarding Welker, word is that he will not go on the PUP list, but I live in RI and follow the Patriots and I am hearing conflicting reports. Some say that he won't go on PUP but some others are convinced that he will be. A couple writers for the Globe or Herald or something both said that they know for sure he will be on the PUP, so just keep a close eye on it before drafting Welker in the 3rd. If i hear anything knew I'll be sure to update everyone.
-
07-24-2010, 09:05 AM #22
Sorta. You obviously want WLB and MLBs when you play IDP leagues. Lofton is pretty tough in the middle, he isnt moving. Weatherspoon, I thought, was the 2nd best if not best LB in this draft. He will start against a division that will be run heavy, hes gonna have a lot of chances.
You never trust anything coming out of Patriots camp. Ever.
-
07-24-2010, 09:08 AM #23
Yeah and lets keep in mind that even though he might not hit the 6 week PUP... That doesn't mean he'll be 100% and starting on week 1.
Players on the PUP vs not on the PUP can do more things with the team, like practice. So not putting him on the PUP is more than likely bellichecks way of saying he'll eat the roster spot on the chance that it helps speed up Welker's comeback, while progressively shaking off the rust that would build if he just sat in a training room on the PUP.
I don't care how much Optimism and wonder-meds you inject into that knee. NO WAY does he rip it week 17, bounce back in 7 months and start with the same kind of shake-and-bake moves that made him so effective in the past.
Every other player in the history of the game who rips a knee like he did take AT LEAST a year to get their moves and their confidence back. I say whether Welker starts on the PUP or not, Edelman's Value through the Fantasy regular season is going to be the same.
Then by the Fantasy Playoffs I think you see Welker taking so much of the value out of Edelman that he loses relevance.
IMO these positive Welker Reports turn Edelman into an even better late-late round steal, and a guy who can start for you for 6 weeks.6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-24-2010, 09:26 AM #24
Unfortunately I don't have enough IDP experience to give you "Quality" advice on that one. But one factor that I always work in with regards to keeper/dynasty leagues is that if you have to choose between an older productive player and a younger guy who's on his way up... I choose the younger guy who's on his way up. This way I'm making a longer term investment in my team. Hopefully I've been doing this long enough that I have a strong foundation that covers whatever weakness the younger player brings to my team.
6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
-
07-24-2010, 10:12 AM #25
- Join Date: Aug 2008
- Location: Albuquerque, New Mexico, United States
- Posts: 5,556
- Rep Power: 1771
yeah i know lofton is going to be the starting MLB for a long time in ATL. I like whoever is at WLB next to him a lot too, especially a guy with the versatility of Weatherspoon.
and hmm, interesting stuff about welker. maybe i condemned edelman too soon. I don't expect welker to have his moves back, but the question will be whether he is on the field a lot at first. hopefully BB comes to the conclusion that an Edelman at 100% is more effective than a Welker at 60-70%. All these questions will have to be answered in training camp. ugh I hate that this league drafts on july 30th. thats like early training camp for most teams, no time at all to see who snags what role. but then again, its another challenge because you have to predict who will be where on the depth chart.Jaguars and Diamondbacks +
1500 +
ACE Certified Personal Trainer
Squat twice as much as I weigh crew
Forever skinny crew
-
07-24-2010, 10:14 AM #26
-
07-24-2010, 10:29 AM #27
I think it's sort of a blessing in disguise. Early in the season you're going to be able to play Edelman, while Welker is rebuilding and shaking off the rust in practice... Then getting a handful of reps each game etc...
In the mean time though... Edelman will go 5-6 rounds later, and you can grab him as a value pick, should it come down to the late rounds... Where he would have normally gone in the mid rounds.
The only problem is, unless Welker re-injures by pushing himself, you're almost surely going to lose edelman by the FF playoffs.
Better instead to target Edelman if you get a WR who's going to be out early in the season.
Like say in Round 4 you're looking at a Vincent Jackson or a Santonio Holmes... Most guys will let them fall due to their suspensions... But you could grab them... And then 5 rounds later you grab Edelman... Edleman can start for you while V-Jax or Santonio sit out their suspension.
I think that's ^^^^ the secret Value of Edelman, rather than looking at him as a Welker-Handcuff.6'4"
258
"There are only two mistakes one can make along the road to truth: not going all the way, and not starting." The Buddha
-
07-24-2010, 11:37 AM #28
-
-
07-24-2010, 11:41 AM #29
-
07-24-2010, 01:03 PM #30
Herer's some general questions for this year for just standard leagues 10yds/pt for reception/rushing and 6pts/td, NOT PPR, 1QB/3WR/2RB/TE/K/DEF plus bench:
1.) How much do you think the Ravens will rely on Rice this year to carry them? Will he be as affected this year by the presence of McGahee in short yardages situations and the lack of TDs due to this as he as last year? With the addition of Bouldin, will the Ravens shift some of the focus towards Bouldin therefore leaving Rice with less to do, so decreasing his production a little bit from last year?
Just what is the overall lookout on Rice this year compared to the 2nd half of last year after he broke out? I still like him, it's just that last year McGahee really sucked some life out of him.
2.) Do you think it will be profitable to hold onto either Manningham/Nicks from the Giant's receivers or do you think they will both eat into each other's playing time enough for both not to be consistent fantasy options? Do you see Steve Smith repeating his performance of last year and staying the goto receiver for Manning? And, do you see either Nicks/Manningham having an even bigger breakout year than last and solidifying themselves as a starter?
3.) With Kolb now at quarterback for the Eagles, how do you think that affects the value of Desean Jackson? Is he much more of a risk as a first wide receiver taken in a draft, or would you still count on him to produce as the #1 option in Philadelphia? I loved this guy last season even though I didn't have him on my team, but the fact that Kolb is not proven over the long season is kind of worrying me if I get the chance to draft him.
4.) Finally, the dilemma of Megatron. Do you think the addition of Nate Burleson will allow Johnson to greatly increase his production from last year as teams won't be able to double him literally almost the whole game like they did last year? Also, do you think he is capable of staying healthy an entire year and also do you think Stafford is also able to stay healthy (gotta have someone to throw to him lol)?
I picked Megatron last year and it was just a huge burden each week not knowing whether he would play, whether stafford would play, or who I would have to choose off of waivers or the bench to replace him last minute not knowing if he would have one of his dominant performances or one of his one catch for 20 yards performances like he had a few weeks last season.
These are just a few questions that intrigued me going into this season of the draft after playing last, if anyone has any input that is greatly appreciated This thread was a great help last year and it should be fun times again this season.
Similar Threads
-
The Official Fantasy Football Thread... post all your Q&As, start em/sit em HERE
By heidt410 in forum SportsReplies: 1522Last Post: 01-09-2009, 04:47 PM
Bookmarks