A public service message that will save you lots of $$$ (completely serious)

[Pad264]

well honestly I just underestimated the power of QE and the Fed's willingness to destroy the value of the currency to boost the stock markt in the short term. I guess I figured they were smarter than that, but they proved me wrong. I guess the moral of the story is "Don't fight the Fed", because they have more money than anyone else..... and if they don't they'll just print it

Again, there are two sides to that coin as well. What you call "destroying" the US currency, someone else could call: "attracting foreign business." The US economy does not exist in a vacuum; by devaluing the dollar, foreign currency increases in value (relatively). Ten years ago, Americans were pouring out of the country looking to spend money abroad, now the trend has reversed. Right now, as I type this, an Italian jeweler on the Ponte Vecchio is cursing the Fed for sapping its tourist income.

Ebb and flow, my friend; but there's no catastrophe on the immediate horizon.

[V8 Muscle]

Again, there are two sides to that coin as well. What you call "destroying" the US currency, someone else could call: "attracting foreign business." The US economy does not exist in a vacuum; by devaluing the dollar, foreign currency increases in value (relatively). Ten years ago, Americans were pouring out of the country looking to spend money abroad, now the trend has reversed. Right now, as I type this, an Italian jeweler on the Ponte Vecchio is cursing the Fed for sapping its tourist income.

Ebb and flow, my friend; but there's no catastrophe on the immediate horizon.

except if the Fed prints too much money investors will have no confidence in holding dollars any more because anyone who invests in dollars gets raped by the loss of value in dollar denominated assets. The reality of it is that Keynesian economics requires tight monetary policy in good times, slowing down growth. Slowing growth is not something that is politically good, so it never happens. This time the Fed has let out so much liquidity that if they begin to take it out in the next 2 years the economy will tank again. A bad economy/stock market is not something the Fed has shown itself to tolerate, even if it is positive in the long run. So in my opinion it pretty much guarantees the Fed will try to print itself out of this mess, and will eventually fail.

Keynesian economics is like communism... good in theory, horrible in practice.

[Pad264]

except if the Fed prints too much money investors will have no confidence in holding dollars any more because anyone who invests in dollars gets raped by the loss of value in dollar denominated assets. The reality of it is that Keynesian economics requires tight monetary policy in good times, slowing down growth. Slowing growth is not something that is politically good, so it never happens. This time the Fed has let out so much liquidity that if they begin to take it out in the next 2 years the economy will tank again. A bad economy/stock market is not something the Fed has shown itself to tolerate, even if it is positive in the long run. So in my opinion it pretty much guarantees the Fed will try to print itself out of this mess, and will eventually fail.

Keynesian economics is like communism... good in theory, horrible in practice.

I'm not referring to printing more money, you are. The dollar wasn't weakened because more money was printed, you're simply assuming that such an act will result because of the weak dollar. I disagree.

You've made too many jumps in your head before they've actually happened. You've only followed one line of thought all the way through and the result is a fabricated reality -- now you're using that reality to give advice, haha. My problem with your line of thinking is that it's not based on any historical trends.

[V8 Muscle]

I'm not referring to printing more money, you are. The dollar wasn't weakened because more money was printed, you're simply assuming that such an act will result because of the weak dollar. I disagree.

You've made too many jumps in your head before they've actually happened. You've only followed one line of thought all the way through and the result is a fabricated reality -- now you're using that reality to give advice, haha. My problem with your line of thinking is that it's not based on any historical trends.

how can the dollar not be weakened because more money was printed? Thats the entire basis of quantitative easing. Weaken the dollar to force rates down by making the liquidity move into risky assets.

And how are you able to base something on historical trends if its never happened before? Basing asset prices on historical trends was a huge contributing factor to this crisis

[big stud steve]

cliffs on thread (i read the original post)


update to wat happpened?

[Frank Drebin]

cliffs on thread (i read the original post)


update to wat happpened?

U SRS?

OP predicted major crash

Crash didn't happen, markets up >20% since prediction

[V8 Muscle]

U SRS?

OP predicted major crash

Crash didn't happen, markets up >20% since prediction

lol the market is up like 11% since then dumbass. Today was almost a disaster, next week should be fun. Made a ton of money on both sides of the tape today.

[fevr]

lol the market is up like 11% since then dumbass. Today was almost a disaster, next week should be fun. Made a ton of money on both sides of the tape today.

more like 15-16%

anyways, i wouldn't mind a dip here... majority of my investments are going ex-div soon and i have the cash built up to place some bets here

[V8 Muscle]

more like 15-16%

anyways, i wouldn't mind a dip here... majority of my investments are going ex-div soon and i have the cash built up to place some bets here

the only long I have on is Valero. Sitting tight until next week but I picked the top in the market today. Great spot to add, if ***** blows up **** will go down. The volatility last night/today was incredible

[Frank Drebin]

lol the market is up like 11% since then dumbass. Today was almost a disaster, next week should be fun. Made a ton of money on both sides of the tape today.

lol I didn't go back and check, it's up over 20% from July lows...not from when you predicted. My bad.

Edit: Your math's not the best either dumbass

7/17 - 940
Today - 1091

16%

[fevr]

the only long I have on is Valero. Sitting tight until next week but I picked the top in the market today. Great spot to add, if ***** blows up **** will go down. The volatility last night/today was incredible

i know

hindsight is 20/20 and i honestly had no clue what is going on in *****... BUT... huge multi month rally and an abbreviated trading day over a holiday... it really should have been a no brainer to place a bet on vol

once again hindsight 20/20, but i was more concerned with my ability to consume alcohol than the stock market

anyways, i dont htink ***** will blow up. i think (hope?) people learned a lesson when russia defaulted on the ruble years ago

[V8 Muscle]

i know

hindsight is 20/20 and i honestly had no clue what is going on in *****... BUT... huge multi month rally and an abbreviated trading day over a holiday... it really should have been a no brainer to place a bet on vol

once again hindsight 20/20, but i was more concerned with my ability to consume alcohol than the stock market

anyways, i dont htink ***** will blow up. i think (hope?) people learned a lesson when russia defaulted on the ruble years ago

***** is supposed to have $80B in off balance sheet liabilities... of course over the weekend they might get bailed out by someone. There are a ton of news stories about ***** on Bloomberg, I need to catch up on some reading.

[fevr]

***** is supposed to have $80B in off balance sheet liabilities... of course over the weekend they might get bailed out by someone. There are a ton of news stories about ***** on Bloomberg, I need to catch up on some reading.

i haven't done much reading and i wont until the weekend, but it doesn't look like US banks have much exposure to *****. every bank is entangled with every other bank, though.

either way i'll come up with an idea to make money off this by monday

[CLK-GTR]

i got absolutely ****ing raped by ***** and to make it worse i was away on business since wednesday so couldnt get to a PC regularly. goddamn arabs

lloyds closed at 88 yesterday and opened at 56 today. completely irrational, and im just counting my lucky stars i closed my big positions the other day. no other option but to hold now and only sell if the rot continues


they will most likely be bailed out by another emirate...and the real problem is that they have 10-20% holdings in so many companies and so many industries around the world. if they default it wont be lehman sized, it wont affect anyone really, but it has introduced concerns about other bigger governments who raised finance in similar ways such as greece, ireland etc.

[big stud steve]

whats your views on that trading and investing thread?

not a good time to learn the stock market?

[V8 Muscle]

i got absolutely ****ing raped by ***** and to make it worse i was away on business since wednesday so couldnt get to a PC regularly. goddamn arabs

lloyds closed at 88 yesterday and opened at 56 today. completely irrational, and im just counting my lucky stars i closed my big positions the other day. no other option but to hold now and only sell if the rot continues


they will most likely be bailed out by another emirate...and the real problem is that they have 10-20% holdings in so many companies and so many industries around the world. if they default it wont be lehman sized, it wont affect anyone really, but it has introduced concerns about other bigger governments who raised finance in similar ways such as greece, ireland etc.

I'm sure most US traders are glad it happened on Thanksgiving when the markets were closed.... lol I'm really surprised it rallied as hard as it did though. Guess it means dip buyers are still there. Just goes to show that the global economy isnt as well recovered as most think. It will be interesting to see how institutional traders react to this on Monday, I'm sure most of them were off today. Today's buying was mostly retail I think, which could be why it popped so hard. Technicals played out absolutley perfectly also

[V8 Muscle]

whats your views on that trading and investing thread?

not a good time to learn the stock market?

trading and investing thread should be renamed "the official trading pennies and biotechs with no knowledge of market structure and macroeconomics thread"

[V8 Muscle]

this was on zhedge about *****:

Debt:

United Arab Emirates (via Bank of America - Amortization figures only):

Total Debt: $184 billion

of which...

*****: $88 billion
Abu Dhabi: $90 billion

*****:

Due in:
2010: $12.0 billion
2011: $19.0 billion
2012: $18.0 billion
2013: $ 7.5 billion
2014: $ 5.5 billion

Abu Dhabi:

Due in:
2010: $ 8.5 billion
2011: $14.7 billion
2012: $10.0 billion
2013: $12.4 billion
2014: $ 9.4 billion

UAE:

Due in:
2010: $22.0 billion
2011: $34.7 billion
2012: $29.0 billion
2013: $20.3 billion
2014: $14.9 billion


***** World:

Total Debt $26.5 billion
Due in next 36 months: ~$20.4 billion

Creditors:

Of United Arab Emirates (By Origin via Credit Suisse citing Bank for International Settlements):


United Kingdom: $50.2 billion
France: $11.3 billion
Germany: $10.6 billion
United States: $10.6 billion
Japan: $ 9.0 billion
Switzerland: $ 4.6 billion
Netherlands: $ 4.5 billion

Of United Arab Emirates (By Entity via Credit Suisse, citing Emirates Bank Association):

HSBC Bank Middle East Limited: $17.0 billion
Standard Chartered Bank: $ 7.8 billion
Barlays Bank Plc: $ 3.6 billion
ABN-Amro (RBS): $ 2.1 billion
Arab Bank Plc: $ 2.1 billion
Citibank: $ 1.9 billion
Bank of Baroda: $ 1.8 billion
Bank Saderat Iran: $ 1.7 billion
BNP Parabas: $ 1.7 billion
Lloyds: $ 1.6 billion

Other notes of note:

* UBS speculates that (among other possibilities) $80-90 billion (which is already over 100% of GDP) may be a low figure for *****'s debt and that significant "off-balance sheet" amounts might explain the restructuring attempt
* The ***** government is on holiday (Eid Al-Adha) until December 6th
* Abu Dhabi's Sovereign Wealth Fund (generally thought to command upwards of $500 billion) may have significantly less available. (Rumors of $125 billion in 2008 losses abounded last year). Bloomberg quotes sources to the effect that Abu Dhabi SWF's AUM has been "overstated, sometimes by as much as 100 percent."

[NorthernRaZ]

trading and investing thread should be renamed "the official trading pennies and biotechs with no knowledge of market structure and macroeconomics thread"

Wow, you don't get it, do you? This thread proves that you do not know anything about the economy or investing.






































Nothing at all

[Ilovehotmoms]

trading and investing thread should be renamed "the official trading pennies and biotechs with no knowledge of market structure and macroeconomics thread"

and ur two star thread poses a valid arugment

[NewEgo]

long term investing is dead. Its bubble economics right now. People don't think we're in a bubble but the USD carry trade is essentially the next bubble to pop. Keeping rates this low for this long is fueling one of the biggest bubbles we've had. When the carry trade unwinds the USD is going to see incredible strength and will probably cause equities to tank into the ground. Considering the sheer scale of it, it is lining up to be bigger than the commodities bubble imo

Are you an intern at some investment firm? You remind me of idiots in $200 suits that just get out of college and land internship and big invest. co then throw 'stock discussions' in bars. I point and laugh at them in the open.

If anybody takes 'v8 muscles' advise on investment, I have a bridge to sell you.

[CLK-GTR]

i ended up not coming up with an idea... lol

ive got a good one if you fancy losing some money? it has not been a particularly fruitful couple of days shall we say

[superdoopr]

trading and investing thread should be renamed "the official trading pennies and biotechs with no knowledge of market structure and macroeconomics thread"

hey boy,

The market was at 8711 the day you made your prediction, now it is at 10,344 today. That is a 15% gain on the DOW. That is an enormous gain. Calling tops and bottoms in a "public service announcement" makes you look like a tool mainly because the market is infamously uncooperative when it comes to people that can predict it. There has never been anyone that can do it. Now you look like a dumbass, this is a good learning experience for you.

[V8 Muscle]

lol @ so many dumbasses in here hating on me. I've grown immune to it now I could care less. They can keep saying I'm an idiot and dont know anything, but if they had to explain any kind of mid/low level economics or financial issue they would fail miserably. Hell, I bet 95% of the haters in this thread don't even know what the GDP equation is.

[PatrickBateman1]

lol @ so many dumbasses in here hating on me. I've grown immune to it now I could care less. They can keep saying I'm an idiot and dont know anything, but if they had to explain any kind of mid/low level economics or financial issue they would fail miserably. Hell, I bet 95% of the haters in this thread don't even know what the GDP equation is.

GDP = G x D x P

Duhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Roke]

lol @ so many dumbasses in here hating on me. I've grown immune to it now I could care less. They can keep saying I'm an idiot and dont know anything, but if they had to explain any kind of mid/low level economics or financial issue they would fail miserably. Hell, I bet 95% of the haters in this thread don't even know what the GDP equation is.

Well that's easy. GDP= G + D + P

In your face boy.

[PatrickBateman1]

Well that's easy. GDP= G + D + P

In your face boy.

Wrong. See my post above. Dumbass!

[gotspeed22]

Hell, I bet 95% of the haters in this thread don't even know what the GDP equation is.

GDPn= C + I + G + NX

I WIN THE PRIZE!

so do you all think asset prices are propped up and are going to go down? that's what i heard, down down down soon

[V8 Muscle]

Well that's easy. GDP= G + D + P

In your face boy.

Wrong. See my post above. Dumbass!

GDPn= C + I + G + NX

I WIN THE PRIZE!

so do you all think asset prices are propped up and are going to go down? that's what i heard, down down down soon

LMAO!!!

and yes of course they are propped up. Even the econ data they are releasing is fake and propped up. They just revised the Q3 GDP to +2.8% down from 3.5%, meaning that we saw essentially zero organic growth in Q3. I am going to guess that they will revise the recently "bullish" unemployment data so that it is not so rosy pretty soon. They just want Bernanke to get confirmed again so theyre helping him look good right now.

[fevr]

lol @ so many dumbasses in here hating on me. I've grown immune to it now I could care less. They can keep saying I'm an idiot and dont know anything, but if they had to explain any kind of mid/low level economics or financial issue they would fail miserably. Hell, I bet 95% of the haters in this thread don't even know what the GDP equation is.

just wondering, did you ever short GE (not hating)

because GE has over $60b in cash with more coming in from the NBC deal, more than enough to sustainibly boost their (albeit pathetic currently) div by 50% in the weeks ahead, which would be a shot in the arm for them

pure speculation on my part, of course