When is the great depression coming?

[BalloonKnot]

Except it hasn't been the government handouts to the financial sector which are scaring people away from the dollar. It was the monetary expansion that is scaring people away from the dollar. The real effects of monetary expansion, as in higher prices, have not yet occurred because all the monetary expansion is being held in bank reserves.

Unless there is a monetary contraction, there will be a significant loss of value in the American dollar. The only reason gold is lagging behind the monetary supply so much right now is because, as I mentioned, all the money is being held in bank reserves.

The future of the American dollar is very weak. That is I bet TIPS and I-Bonds will be more popular in the months ahead



Easy gold.

You are confusing inflation with supply and demand...monetary expansion is irrelevant as aggregate demand will remain weak for years and we are facing a job loss recovery and a L-shaped recession.

Prime borrows don't want to borrow and lending to subprime is certain default. With job losses and wage contraction this will not change for a very long time.

Where is the demand going to come from. We are in deflation and speculation is proping everything up as the banks are playing in equities, emerging markets and commodities.

Trust me...the lofty levels are purely from central bank printing in the US and everywhere around the world. I work in the capital markets...this is exactly what is going on contrary to what the Street's firehouse is telling us.

[dizi24]

You are confusing inflation with supply and demand...monetary expansion is irrelevant as aggregate demand will remain weak for years and we are facing a job loss recovery and a L-shaped recession.

Prime borrows don't want to borrow and lending to subprime is certain default. With job losses and wage contraction this will not change for a very long time.

Where is the demand going to come from. We are in deflation and speculation is proping everything up as the banks are playing in equities, emerging markets and commodities.

Trust me...the lofty levels are purely from central bank printing in the US and everywhere around the world. I work in the capital markets...this is exactly what is going on contrary to what the Street's firehouse is telling us.

Of course there is no demand for it right now.

There is only going to be demand for lending once there is a real recovery going on (not the fake one we're seeing right now). Once that happens, all those reserves will be able to be lent out, leaving us with a choice of either a huge monetary contraction, high interest rates which will encourage banks to hold reserves (buying us some time), or let it be and watch the dollar crash.

That L shaped recession is the exact opposite of what you will see in the gold markets. The value of gold has tripled in less than a decade, but as lending as stopped, the dollar expansion isn't going to raise the value of the gold anymore, and we'll see a flat line in that market for a year or two.

But what do you believe is going to happen once there is a demand for lending again? If the reserves stay at current levels, there is going to be a massive crisis in the US>

[Duckenheimer]

bumping for the lulz. I remained optimistic on the economy and invested wisely in January. I'm up 125% on my portfolio currently. I was laughed at here as everyone was preparing either for the Great Depression or the Summer Stock Market Crash of '09.

Bad Job Dave Men


DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

O hai

In before a deceased tabby bounces off the ground and a 1930s style rally brings smiles back onto peoples faces.

[Stizzel]

bumping for the lulz. I remained optimistic on the economy and invested wisely in January. I'm up 125% on my portfolio currently. I was laughed at here as everyone was preparing either for the Great Depression or the Summer Stock Market Crash of '09.

Bad Job Dave Men


DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

Good job. Everyone I know lost a minimum of 50% of their portfolio last July.

Hope you don't get burned like they did. Its sad when someone thats independantly wealthy suddenly has to beg for a job at walmart.

[Duckenheimer]

Let me guess - the government 'rigged' the number to a more positive position?

Clinton did. The long term unemployed magically disappear.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Seasonally-adjusted labor participation rate is down 0.2%.

[dizi24]

Clinton did. The long term unemployed magically disappear.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Seasonally-adjusted labor participation rate is down 0.2%.

Yeah, you really have to look into these numbers that the government puts out.

For instance, the 1% fall in GDP wasn't actually a 1% fall. It was really closer to about a 5% fall in GDP once you factor out increases in government spending and such.

Only with federal governments reporting data can a quarter of a million people lose jobs and then magically have the unemployment % drop. I understand the problem of counting the actual labor force, but the way they report unemployment is much more dishonest and misleading than the alternatives.

[BalloonKnot]

But what do you believe is going to happen once there is a demand for lending again? If the reserves stay at current levels, there is going to be a massive crisis in the US>

We are entering a loss decade (or two). Without consumer demand (it is not going to come back ever) there will be no credit (debt) demand.

Inflation will not be a problem but sovereign debt yields worldwide (not just US) are rising and that tread will continue irrespective of aggregated demand.

[reyalp]

When is the great recovery going to happen?

[Fist-Of-Freedom]

When is the great recovery going to happen?

According to the kool-aid drinkers, it happened in 2009.

[MistaO]

DOW will head to 14,000 in 24 months, and I'm loving it.

How many times do you need to be told that the DOW is not an indicator of the U.S. economy?

[Fist-Of-Freedom]

How many times do you need to be told that the DOW is not an indicator of the U.S. economy?

lol

[Emperiorjack]

Our economy is sh*t.

House = expensive
Land = expensive
Wages = low
Jobs = ha ha ha

The only thing keeping our economy together is chinas ability to produce cheap enough goods to support our lifestyle, but this is a double edge sword and won't last forever. Once china decides they don't want to be the worlds bitch anymore we will be struggling even more than we are now.

[NiceBoat]

When is the great recovery going to happen?

When is it going to completely fail and fall into a depression?

[5x10]

i work with alot of different cpas, frequently in their office, and the conversations i have with them recently are not looking good

im in houston, so weve been somewhat sheltered from this recession(oil influence) until now.
my cpas are seeing deterioration in their client's financials across the board, they are also losing clients that are going out of business or can no longer afford the cpas services, etc

this isnt just one cpa telling me this, this is multiple

im not trying to be a pessimist, but i dont see anything improving until foreclosures slow significantly(imo, that will free credit up)

[NorthernRaZ]

How many times do you need to be told that the DOW is not an indicator of the U.S. economy?

Yes it is. Prove how it is not an economic indicator. It's called a coincident economic indicator.


lol... Typical arrogant 20 year old thinking you can get all your economic information from a 5 minute youtube video.

[NorthernRaZ]

Once again I prove everyone wrong:


Private sector decline/growth



Jump in hiring lifts spirits on economy
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...le+Feedfetcher

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 in October, the first gain since May, and more than double economists' expectations, a Labor Department report showed on Friday. Private hiring rose by 159,000, while government cut only 8,000 jobs.

[NorthernRaZ]

i work with alot of different cpas, frequently in their office, and the conversations i have with them recently are not looking good

im in houston, so weve been somewhat sheltered from this recession(oil influence) until now.
my cpas are seeing deterioration in their client's financials across the board, they are also losing clients that are going out of business or can no longer afford the cpas services, etc

this isnt just one cpa telling me this, this is multiple

im not trying to be a pessimist, but i dont see anything improving until foreclosures slow significantly(imo, that will free credit up)

CPAs make as good as economists as grocery clerks.

[NorthernRaZ]

i work with alot of different cpas, frequently in their office, and the conversations i have with them recently are not looking good

im in houston, so weve been somewhat sheltered from this recession(oil influence) until now.
my cpas are seeing deterioration in their client's financials across the board, they are also losing clients that are going out of business or can no longer afford the cpas services, etc

this isnt just one cpa telling me this, this is multiple

im not trying to be a pessimist, but i dont see anything improving until foreclosures slow significantly(imo, that will free credit up)

Since when are CPAs good economists? It's a completely different financial perspective. They deal with the past.

Are we to ask grocery clerks their opinions now?

[NorthernRaZ]

Our economy is sh*t.

House = expensive
Land = expensive
Wages = low
Jobs = ha ha ha

The only thing keeping our economy together is chinas ability to produce cheap enough goods to support our lifestyle, but this is a double edge sword and won't last forever. Once china decides they don't want to be the worlds bitch anymore we will be struggling even more than we are now.

Wow, I've never read anything so completely asinine in my life (which is saying a lot since I've read a Fist of Fail threads before).

[MistaO]

Yes it is. Prove how it is not an economic indicator. It's called a coincident economic indicator.


lol... Typical arrogant 20 year old thinking you can get all your economic information from a 5 minute youtube video.

I have justified my statement several times or more in other threads where I asked you the same question without getting any response.

So...

Prove how it is an economic indicator.


Better make it good 'cause I can use a challenge to get my mind rolling to prove you wrong.

[NorthernRaZ]

I have justified my statement several times or more in other threads where I asked you the same question without getting any response.

So...

Prove how it is an economic indicator.


Better make it good 'cause I can use a challenge to get my mind rolling to prove you wrong.

Nice try. You know you're wrong and you're trying to weasel your way out of it again. Prove how it isn't an economic indicator.

[MistaO]

Nice try. You know you're wrong and you're trying to weasel your way out of it again. Prove how it isn't an economic indicator.

Really? I have to go first AGAIN?!?!

Okay I will but, funnily enough I am about to take a bike ride over to the auditorium here at my school to see and hear Thomas Woods speak.

After that I have FASB Codification Research to do.

When I get the time though, I'll make it special for you. We can have our own thread.

Keep a look out:

"Is the DOW an indicator of the U.S. economy?"

[NorthernRaZ]

Really? I have to go first AGAIN?!?!

Okay I will but, funnily enough I am about to take a bike ride over to the auditorium here at my school to see and hear Thomas Woods speak.

After that I have FASB Codification Research to do.

When I get the time though, I'll make it special for you. We can have our own thread.

Keep a look out:

"Is the DOW an indicator of the U.S. economy?"

Again? There was never a first time to my knowledge.

I'll be looking forward to your thread. Funny how you can post here at all hours of the day, everyday and suddenly you have things to do.

[MistaO]

Again? There was never a first time to my knowledge.

I'll be looking forward to your thread. Funny how you can post here at all hours of the day, everyday and suddenly you have things to do.

What a common lie:

Thomas Woods. 7pm. Braden Auditorium.


Quiet wanker. Don't worry, I won't forget about you.

[Fist-Of-Freedom]

Yes it is. Prove how it is not an economic indicator. It's called a coincident economic indicator.


lol... Typical arrogant 20 year old thinking you can get all your economic information from a 5 minute youtube video.

Wait, are you REALLY being serious when you say indices are an indicator of economic growth?

You sir, have just lost all credibility. Not as though you had much to begin with.

[NorthernRaZ]

Wait, are you REALLY being serious when you say indices are an indicator of economic growth?

You sir, have just lost all credibility. Not as though you had much to begin with.

Here are a few quick and simple reads:

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...indicators.asp

Leading Economic Indicators Predict Market Trends
by Bruce Allen (Contact Author | Biography)

Filed Under: Active Trading, Economics, Forex, Futures
Economists typically group macroeconomic statistics under one of three headings: leading, lagging or coincident. Figuratively speaking, one views them through the windshield, the rearview mirror, or the side window. But how can an investor determine the direction of the economy in this blizzard of data?

Coincident and lagging indicators provide investors with some confirmation of where we are and where we've been, but here we'll take a look at the leading economic indicators. They're a good place to start, because they help us understand where the economy is heading. (For a more general understanding of these indicators, check out Economic Indicators To Know. For background reading, see What are leading, lagging and coincident indicators? What are they for?)

Market Indexes
In order for an economic indicator to have predictive value for investors, it must be current, it must be forward-looking, and it must discount current values according to future expectations. Meaningful statistics about the direction of the economy start with the major market indexes and the information they provide about:

* Stock and stock futures markets
* Bond and mortgage interest rates, and the yield curve
* Foreign exchange rates
* Commodity prices, especially gold, grains, oil and metals

also


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator

Leading indicators

Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes.[1] They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Stock market returns are a leading indicator: the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy as a whole declines and usually begins to improve before the general economy begins to recover from a slump. Other leading indicators include the index of consumer expectations, building permits, and the money supply.[citation needed] The Conference Board publishes a composite Leading Economic Index consisting of ten indicators designed to predict activity in the U. S. economy six to nine months in future.

Fist of Failure loses again!

[ONtop888]

My great depression arrived when I read your thread.

[Streetbull]

The real unemployment rate is around 17%. Right now, once 26 weeks has elapsed and you still haven't found a job, then you're no longer counted. Unemployment is massive and growing worse, government stats (lies) notwithstanding.

America has far too much debt to recover at this point. We either send taxes through the roof to pay on it or inflate like mad. Either one crushes the economy even more.

Let the economy collapse, repudiate all debts, and start over.

[reyalp]

Once again I prove everyone wrong:

random graphs and quotes about jobs

proves nothing really

you have a little over 10 months on this one:

DOW will head to 14,000 [by Aug 2011], and I'm loving it.

[NorthernRaZ]

The real unemployment rate is around 17%. Right now, once 26 weeks has elapsed and you still haven't found a job, then you're no longer counted. Unemployment is massive and growing worse, government stats (lies) notwithstanding.

America has far too much debt to recover at this point. We either send taxes through the roof to pay on it or inflate like mad. Either one crushes the economy even more.

Let the economy collapse, repudiate all debts, and start over.

This is why we don't listen to our elders.