You are confusing inflation with supply and demand...monetary expansion is irrelevant as aggregate demand will remain weak for years and we are facing a job loss recovery and a L-shaped recession.
Prime borrows don't want to borrow and lending to subprime is certain default. With job losses and wage contraction this will not change for a very long time.
Where is the demand going to come from. We are in deflation and speculation is proping everything up as the banks are playing in equities, emerging markets and commodities.
Trust me...the lofty levels are purely from central bank printing in the US and everywhere around the world. I work in the capital markets...this is exactly what is going on contrary to what the Street's firehouse is telling us.
|
-
08-07-2009, 02:04 PM #61
Last edited by marmadogg; 08-07-2009 at 02:07 PM. Reason: typos
"The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls looking like hard work."-T. Edison-
"Governments should also decrease the role of economists - they're no more reliable than astrologers, and they do more damage."-N. Taleb-
"A fundamental characteristic of our economy is that the financial system swings between robustness and fragility, and these swings are an integral part of the process that generates business cycles."-H. Minsky-
-
08-07-2009, 02:26 PM #62
Of course there is no demand for it right now.
There is only going to be demand for lending once there is a real recovery going on (not the fake one we're seeing right now). Once that happens, all those reserves will be able to be lent out, leaving us with a choice of either a huge monetary contraction, high interest rates which will encourage banks to hold reserves (buying us some time), or let it be and watch the dollar crash.
That L shaped recession is the exact opposite of what you will see in the gold markets. The value of gold has tripled in less than a decade, but as lending as stopped, the dollar expansion isn't going to raise the value of the gold anymore, and we'll see a flat line in that market for a year or two.
But what do you believe is going to happen once there is a demand for lending again? If the reserves stay at current levels, there is going to be a massive crisis in the US>
-
08-07-2009, 02:52 PM #63
-
08-07-2009, 02:55 PM #64
-
-
08-07-2009, 02:56 PM #65
Clinton did. The long term unemployed magically disappear.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
Seasonally-adjusted labor participation rate is down 0.2%.Last edited by Duckenheimer; 08-07-2009 at 03:02 PM.
Interested in investing in militarizing poultry? Based in our Southernmost continent, no local taxes, no laws to worry about, guaranteed return! PM for further details
-
08-07-2009, 03:15 PM #66
Yeah, you really have to look into these numbers that the government puts out.
For instance, the 1% fall in GDP wasn't actually a 1% fall. It was really closer to about a 5% fall in GDP once you factor out increases in government spending and such.
Only with federal governments reporting data can a quarter of a million people lose jobs and then magically have the unemployment % drop. I understand the problem of counting the actual labor force, but the way they report unemployment is much more dishonest and misleading than the alternatives.
-
08-10-2009, 08:43 AM #67
We are entering a loss decade (or two). Without consumer demand (it is not going to come back ever) there will be no credit (debt) demand.
Inflation will not be a problem but sovereign debt yields worldwide (not just US) are rising and that tread will continue irrespective of aggregated demand."The reason a lot of people do not recognize opportunity is because it usually goes around wearing overalls looking like hard work."-T. Edison-
"Governments should also decrease the role of economists - they're no more reliable than astrologers, and they do more damage."-N. Taleb-
"A fundamental characteristic of our economy is that the financial system swings between robustness and fragility, and these swings are an integral part of the process that generates business cycles."-H. Minsky-
-
11-17-2010, 09:10 AM #68
-
-
11-17-2010, 09:14 AM #69
-
11-17-2010, 09:59 AM #70
-
11-17-2010, 10:02 AM #71
-
11-17-2010, 11:33 AM #72
Our economy is sh*t.
House = expensive
Land = expensive
Wages = low
Jobs = ha ha ha
The only thing keeping our economy together is chinas ability to produce cheap enough goods to support our lifestyle, but this is a double edge sword and won't last forever. Once china decides they don't want to be the worlds bitch anymore we will be struggling even more than we are now.
-
-
11-17-2010, 12:28 PM #73
-
11-17-2010, 01:18 PM #74
i work with alot of different cpas, frequently in their office, and the conversations i have with them recently are not looking good
im in houston, so weve been somewhat sheltered from this recession(oil influence) until now.
my cpas are seeing deterioration in their client's financials across the board, they are also losing clients that are going out of business or can no longer afford the cpas services, etc
this isnt just one cpa telling me this, this is multiple
im not trying to be a pessimist, but i dont see anything improving until foreclosures slow significantly(imo, that will free credit up)Dallas Cowboys
Lifted for 30 years
Ass > tits
No Debt Crew
-
11-17-2010, 03:32 PM #75
-
11-17-2010, 03:38 PM #76
Once again I prove everyone wrong:
Private sector decline/growth
Jump in hiring lifts spirits on economy
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN...le+Feedfetcher
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 151,000 in October, the first gain since May, and more than double economists' expectations, a Labor Department report showed on Friday. Private hiring rose by 159,000, while government cut only 8,000 jobs.
-
-
11-17-2010, 03:41 PM #77
-
11-17-2010, 03:43 PM #78
-
11-17-2010, 03:45 PM #79
-
11-17-2010, 04:04 PM #80
- Join Date: Sep 2007
- Location: Illinois, United States
- Age: 36
- Posts: 3,845
- Rep Power: 6055
I have justified my statement several times or more in other threads where I asked you the same question without getting any response.
So...
Prove how it is an economic indicator.
Better make it good 'cause I can use a challenge to get my mind rolling to prove you wrong.Do you know about the Federal Reserve?
If not, find out here:
endthefederalreserve.blogspot.com
RON PAUL 2012
-
-
11-17-2010, 04:08 PM #81
-
11-17-2010, 04:13 PM #82
- Join Date: Sep 2007
- Location: Illinois, United States
- Age: 36
- Posts: 3,845
- Rep Power: 6055
Really? I have to go first AGAIN?!?!
Okay I will but, funnily enough I am about to take a bike ride over to the auditorium here at my school to see and hear Thomas Woods speak.
After that I have FASB Codification Research to do.
When I get the time though, I'll make it special for you. We can have our own thread.
Keep a look out:
"Is the DOW an indicator of the U.S. economy?"Do you know about the Federal Reserve?
If not, find out here:
endthefederalreserve.blogspot.com
RON PAUL 2012
-
11-17-2010, 04:16 PM #83
-
11-17-2010, 04:18 PM #84
-
-
11-17-2010, 04:19 PM #85
-
11-17-2010, 04:32 PM #86
Here are a few quick and simple reads:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...indicators.asp
Leading Economic Indicators Predict Market Trends
by Bruce Allen (Contact Author | Biography)
Filed Under: Active Trading, Economics, Forex, Futures
Economists typically group macroeconomic statistics under one of three headings: leading, lagging or coincident. Figuratively speaking, one views them through the windshield, the rearview mirror, or the side window. But how can an investor determine the direction of the economy in this blizzard of data?
Coincident and lagging indicators provide investors with some confirmation of where we are and where we've been, but here we'll take a look at the leading economic indicators. They're a good place to start, because they help us understand where the economy is heading. (For a more general understanding of these indicators, check out Economic Indicators To Know. For background reading, see What are leading, lagging and coincident indicators? What are they for?)
Market Indexes
In order for an economic indicator to have predictive value for investors, it must be current, it must be forward-looking, and it must discount current values according to future expectations. Meaningful statistics about the direction of the economy start with the major market indexes and the information they provide about:
* Stock and stock futures markets
* Bond and mortgage interest rates, and the yield curve
* Foreign exchange rates
* Commodity prices, especially gold, grains, oil and metals
also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator
Leading indicators
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes.[1] They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Stock market returns are a leading indicator: the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy as a whole declines and usually begins to improve before the general economy begins to recover from a slump. Other leading indicators include the index of consumer expectations, building permits, and the money supply.[citation needed] The Conference Board publishes a composite Leading Economic Index consisting of ten indicators designed to predict activity in the U. S. economy six to nine months in future.
Fist of Failure loses again!Last edited by NorthernRaZ; 11-17-2010 at 04:40 PM.
-
11-17-2010, 04:33 PM #87
-
11-17-2010, 04:42 PM #88
The real unemployment rate is around 17%. Right now, once 26 weeks has elapsed and you still haven't found a job, then you're no longer counted. Unemployment is massive and growing worse, government stats (lies) notwithstanding.
America has far too much debt to recover at this point. We either send taxes through the roof to pay on it or inflate like mad. Either one crushes the economy even more.
Let the economy collapse, repudiate all debts, and start over.“From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be rememberèd—
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother...”
-
-
11-17-2010, 04:47 PM #89
-
11-17-2010, 04:53 PM #90
Similar Threads
-
When is the new FUZU coming out?
By PumpingBricks in forum SupplementsReplies: 8Last Post: 08-15-2004, 01:45 PM
Bookmarks