When is the great depression coming?

[NorthernRaZ]

I no way endorse or support Obama and his fiscal policy. However, I am sick of all you "economists" and doomdayers. I was told by r/p economists that the economy would hit rock bottom around the time frame of June. Also, that there is no positive economic news. Our economy will collapse, and we'll reach the greatest economic depression ever witnessed by mankind.

However, there is plenty of positive economic news and these are some recently published articles in the past two weeks:
1. I know this rebuttal will come up quickly: we have a weak dollar. Yes, nevertheless, a weak dollar is AWESOME for our economy right now. Foreign markets are enabled to purchase more power, thus, they can purchase more of our goods.

2. GDP hints recession is moderating
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews

3. Housing Picture Brightens in California
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124353047811163187.html

4. Stocks jump as confidence data fuels economy hopes
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews

5. Where Home Prices Crashed Early, Signs of a Rebound
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/bu...er=rss&emc=rss

6. Sales and construction data lift hopes for U.S. housing
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews

7. Manufacturing index hits 9-month high
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/01/news...ion=2009060111

8. Stocks extend gains after positive economic data
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks...-15401590.html

I could go on and on. Yes, we are still in a recession and everything isn't great with the economy, but all this positive economic news is constantly ignored in this forum. The foreign stock indexes have rallied for sometime and the U.S. stock market indexes have rallied for several straight months.

Give it a break with all the negative economic news.

[Spetsnazos]

age 12

stopped reading

[frankenstein]

Before being extremely negative or positive about the near term (next 5 years) we should wait out the next 3 months and see what overall results are.

A 2nd Great Depression will not surface. I think we have a good 12+ months until a true recovery has begun. Instead, we'll see public debt and taxes to pay off the interest on the debt go up. Inflation will get pretty ugly too, which screws over savers.

One good thing I see coming from all of this is less conspicuous consumption.

[NorthernRaZ]

age 12

stopped reading

Typical. Instead of enlightening yourself, you refuse to look at the actual situation. You must enjoy remaining uninformed and uneducated. Go back to your TV for the news.

[mrawdtsi]

finally, another RP member who has a positive outlook on the economy!!!

thought i was the only one

[Pay_Me]

Fed can't even hold down rates with QE.

Unemployment, the only reason it was under 600k last month was government hiring and birth/death model.

How's California doing? If on it's on it's the 8th largest economy in the world.

GM declaring bankruptcy today, economy must be doing great.

How are banks CC deliquencies doing?

[Kane_89]

2. GDP hints recession is moderating
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews

3. Housing Picture Brightens in California
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124353047811163187.html

4. Stocks jump as confidence data fuels economy hopes
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews

5. Where Home Prices Crashed Early, Signs of a Rebound
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/bu...er=rss&emc=rss

6. Sales and construction data lift hopes for U.S. housing
http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...e=businessNews

7. Manufacturing index hits 9-month high
http://money.cnn.com/2009/06/01/news...ion=2009060111

8. Stocks extend gains after positive economic data
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks...-15401590.html

[reyalp]

OP, you ever watch the David Walker videos?

[Morbid_Mind]

Fed can't even hold down rates with QE.

We just need more QE

Unemployment, the only reason it was under 600k last month was government hiring and birth/death model.

Even the most optimistic expectations have Friday's NonFarm at 9.2%, we'll hit 10% U3 by the end of the year easily, especially with the auto plants and dealerships closing.

Even though unemployment claims are slowing, it doesn't make that much of a difference. You lose jobs at 18%, 16%, 12% your business is still going bust.

How's California doing? If on it's on it's the 8th largest economy in the world.

5th...

How are banks CC deliquencies doing?

Up. Don't forget commercial real estate, Jumbo and ALT-A mortgage delinquencies.

The only reason we saw forclosures slowing is because there was a moratorium on them, that's been lifted...

[reyalp]

According to The World Factbook published by the CIA, if California were an independent state, it would have had the tenth largest economy in the world in 2007.[18]

[Pay_Me]

Up. Don't forget commercial real estate, Jumbo and ALT-A mortgage delinquencies.

The only reason we saw forclosures slowing is because there was a moratorium on them, that's been lifted...

And I forgot the expected increase in redefaults for modified mortgages.

[NorthernRaZ]

Fed can't even hold down rates with QE.


Unemployment, the only reason it was under 600k last month was government hiring and birth/death model.

Okay, then let's look at the private sector, so I'll counter your argument with this:

Private Sector Job Losses Slow In April, By Over 200,000
From Reuter?s News Service:

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? U.S. private sector job losses slowed in April, coming in below economists? expectations, according to a report by ADP Employer Services on Wednesday.

ADP said private employers cut 491,000 jobs in April versus a revised 708,000 lost in March that was originally reported at 742,000 jobs lost.

Economists had expected 650,000 private-sector job cuts in April, according to a Reuters poll.

How's California doing? If on it's on it's the 8th largest economy in the world.

In what aspect? Unemployment is down according to this state's website:
http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200905.pdf

GM declaring bankruptcy today, economy must be doing great.

Your point? The market responded favorably. As I type this, it is up 240 points on the DOW. Also, they should have declared bankruptcy years ago.


People, I didn't say the economy was in an economic boom. I simply said there is a lot of positive news out there.

[NorthernRaZ]

Even though unemployment claims are slowing, it doesn't make that much of a difference. You lose jobs at 18%, 16%, 12% your business is still going bust.

Decreasing unemployment claims doesn't make a difference??? When should they make a difference then?

[Pay_Me]

Okay, then let's look at the private sector, so I'll counter your argument with this:

Private Sector Job Losses Slow In April, By Over 200,000
From Reuter?s News Service:

NEW YORK (Reuters) ? U.S. private sector job losses slowed in April, coming in below economists? expectations, according to a report by ADP Employer Services on Wednesday.

ADP said private employers cut 491,000 jobs in April versus a revised 708,000 lost in March that was originally reported at 742,000 jobs lost.

Economists had expected 650,000 private-sector job cuts in April, according to a Reuters poll.

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in April (-539,000), and
the unemployment rate rose from 8.5 to 8.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Sta-
tistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Since the recession
began in December 2007, 5.7 million jobs have been lost. In April, job los-
ses were large and widespread across nearly all major private-sector indus-
tries. Overall, private-sector employment fell by 611,000.


http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

From the official source. Then you add in government hiring to get the sub 600k number.

In what aspect? Unemployment is down according to this state's website:
http://www.edd.ca.gov/About_EDD/pdf/urate200905.pdf

From what aspect, are you joking?

In that climate, the Republican governor's annual address was more austere than usual. Such speeches often are lengthy, filled with new policy ideas and held in the evening; this one took less than 20 minutes and was over before 11 a.m.

Schwarzenegger warned that California, which would be the world's eighth-largest economy if it were a country, faces insolvency within weeks if lawmakers fail to close the widening deficit.

Schwarzenegger said the state's financial problems are so pressing that no other issue ? including education, water policy or health care ? can be addressed until its budget problems are resolved.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/...-deficit_N.htm

Your point? The market responded favorably. As I type this, it is up 240 points on the DOW. Also, they should have declared bankruptcy years ago.


People, I didn't say the economy was in an economic boom. I simply said there is a lot of positive news out there.

LOL of course market reacted favorably it knew they were going into bankruptcy. Do you think all of those closed plants and employees out of work is great for an economic boom?

[codhead]

i've read conflicting reports that during the '30's, the peak of unemployment at 25% was calculated similarly to what we now call U6 unemployment. Others have said that the 25% was actually calculated like our U3(the official unemployment rate). I know the U3 in several counties in SC is 16-20%. So, it could in fact be worse than the depression (in terms of unemployment) in some areas if the published unemployment during the depression was, in fact the U6. I would assume @18% U3 the U6 would be higher than 25%. Bottom line, it is pretty bad in many places.

[Morbid_Mind]

Decreasing unemployment claims doesn't make a difference??? When should they make a difference then?

When they're still not spectacularly high. How long do you think the economy can handle job losses at ~550k? Just because they're lower doesn't mean things are better, unemployment changes with the seasons. Last year's NonFarms for May and April beat expectations too. You can't look at such a short time frame and make a broad statement about the economy. Look at the overall number of job losses and the pace at which we're losing jobs.

[Morbid_Mind]

Your point? The market responded favorably. As I type this, it is up 240 points on the DOW. Also, they should have declared bankruptcy years ago.

"Ocasionally you can have stock markets moving up very strongly in nominal terms and having a disconnection with the real economy. In other words, the real economy in the world, I don`t think it will go back to the 2006 and 2007 prosperity levels, but the market could go up, theoretically making new highs if you print enough money."

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/20...ck-market.html

[SB_Stong]

If anyone is still selling off their stocks, I'd be happy to buy them from you.

Still waiting for the collapse everyone is still talking about even though they don't know it is already behind them.

Economy will be fine. Can we shift over to doomsday inflation scenario now?

[reyalp]

Still waiting for the collapse everyone is still talking about even though they don't know it is already behind them.

I guess you should call Arnie and let him know he's just imagining things.

California Retail Sales Tax Receipts YoY
Apr-09 -50.90%
Mar-09 -19.20%
Feb-09 -10.60%
Jan-09 -40.70%
Dec-08 1.60%
Nov-08 -17.30%
Oct-08 -4.90%
Sep-08 3.50%
Aug-08 -9.10%
Jul-08 -0.70%
Jun-08 0.90%
May-08 -16.50%

http://sco.ca.gov/Press-Releases/2009/05-09summary.pdf

[Kane_89]

"Ocasionally you can have stock markets moving up very strongly in nominal terms and having a disconnection with the real economy. In other words, the real economy in the world, I don`t think it will go back to the 2006 and 2007 prosperity levels, but the market could go up, theoretically making new highs if you print enough money."

http://marcfaberblog.blogspot.com/20...ck-market.html

LOL Marc Faber aka Dr. Doom

nuff said.

[SB_Stong]

I guess you should call Arnie and let him know he's just imagining things.

California Retail Sales Tax Receipts YoY
Apr-09 -50.90%
Mar-09 -19.20%
Feb-09 -10.60%
Jan-09 -40.70%
Dec-08 1.60%
Nov-08 -17.30%
Oct-08 -4.90%
Sep-08 3.50%
Aug-08 -9.10%
Jul-08 -0.70%
Jun-08 0.90%
May-08 -16.50%

http://sco.ca.gov/Press-Releases/2009/05-09summary.pdf

Is there really a need to compare that cesspool of political ignorance, taxation, and fantasy we call California to the rest of the nation. If anything, California has given us a prime example of what not to do.

[reyalp]

Is there really a need to compare that cesspool of political ignorance, taxation, and fantasy we call California to the rest of the nation. If anything, California has given us a prime example of what not to do.

IIRC the Federal tax receipts for April 09 were down 38% YoY, so Cali was only a little bit worse off than the Federal government in that regard.

[Illiad]

Wait until the baby boomers begin retiring in record numbers until you claim we're in the clear.

[SB_Stong]

IIRC the Federal tax receipts for April 09 were down 38% YoY, so Cali was only a little bit worse off than the Federal government in that regard.

Sell California to China?

[stealth_swimmer]

yeah I don't like when people make predictions about recessions. You can only describe trends. You can't predict when a recession will come. Even professional economists have terrible track records about predicting recessions. You simply CAN'T predict a recession. You can say "if we keep on the path we're on, we'll probably eventually have a recession and have some problems" but you can never really say when a recession will hit. There simply is no way to tell.

[Illiad]

yeah I don't like when people make predictions about recessions. You can only describe trends. You can't predict when a recession will come. Even professional economists have terrible track records about predicting recessions. You simply CAN'T predict a recession. You can say "if we keep on the path we're on, we'll probably eventually have a recession and have some problems" but you can never really say when a recession will hit. There simply is no way to tell.

Although with demographics you can predict when we may be more susceptible to economic turbulence and at this point, America is in a very vulnerable situation.

[Pay_Me]

Sell California to China?

And they have to take Pelosi, Waxman, and Boxer as part of deal.

[stealth_swimmer]

Although with demographics you can predict when we may be more susceptible to economic turbulence and at this point, America is in a very vulnerable situation.

yeah, of course but that still doesn't mean you can predict exactly when a recession will occur.

[Morbid_Mind]

LOL Marc Faber aka Dr. Doom

nuff said.

Where has Faber been incorrect? Look at his history, everything is on the mark. Just because people call him "Dr. Doom" doesn't invalidate his message.

If you have anything constructive I'd like to hear it, if not, you should probably just leave the thread.

[reyalp]

yeah, of course but that still doesn't mean you can predict exactly when a recession will occur.

I feel Loki's wager coming on