i think we disagree just because you look at it as a man saying "i have one kid, he's a boy, my wife just got pregnant, what are my next kids chances of being a boy? in this case the answer is 50%....
it's not gamblers fallacy dude, gamblers fallacy would be okay i went to the casino got **** on 100 times in a row, it's so unlikely i'll lose this next one. no the prob for each discrete event...
discrete probability of that single instance is .5. if you wanted to do a cumulative density function of that it'd be 1 trial, .5 chance of success, looking for 1 or more successes. you'd get .5. ...
i mean ffs the guy even worded it as "what is the probability the other one is a boy". the probability of getting 2 successes with distinct probabilities of .5 each is .25...how is this hard
they are not independent events because they are probability distributions holy ****. the question says this: i flipped a coin 10 times, it came up heads at least 9 times, what is the probability...
no, he's saying he already has 1 boy and is asking what the probability is that his OTHER child is also a boy. we know the answer is .25 by knowing the probability of getting two unique instances of...
that's fine, but it seems to me like you're more concerned with feeling superior to both groups than you are facilitating any real discussion. academia stresses specificity and clarity of intent...
he's playing semantics. it's a way to try to catch you in what is, admittedly, a fallacious position to hold. most atheists just take for granted, however, that people know we are rejecting the...
i agree -- to say with absolute certainty that there is no god is not possible. we can be absolutely certain of nothing. most atheists accept this, and those that don't are being hypocritical.
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