TuffGirl's FREE Spike TV Fight Night; Sept 17th - Who you got? - Thread

[TuffGirl]

Some good fights tomorrow night and FREE, too! :D


UFC Fight Night 15
Date: Sep 17, 2008
8:00pm

Location: Omaha, Neb.
Venue: Omaha Civic Auditorium
Broadcast: Spike TV

MAIN CARD

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer
Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida
Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer
Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman
Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon
Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen

PRELIMINARY CARD

Drew McFedries vs Mike Massenzio
Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris
Rob Kimmons vs. Dan Miller
Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo

[chodan9]

I looking forward to watch danzig again,
he seems like such a smart methodical fighter,
I'm not sure I could hang out with him LOL but I like hist fighting style

[chrisbute]

I'm looking forward to seeing Rob Kimmons fight. I saw him a few months ago and he seems like he has it all.

[farsscf]

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer
Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida
Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer
Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman
Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon
Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen

PRELIMINARY CARD

Drew McFedries vs Mike Massenzio
Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris
Rob Kimmons vs. Dan Miller
Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo

Here are my picks, not familiar with the other fighters

[farsscf]

Speaking of Danzig, check this out with Forrest.

http://ihopetheyservebeerinhell.com/archives/my_favorite_cam.html

[ntrllftr]

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer -- I think that Nate is a little punk.
Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida -- Danzig should get a knock out 1st round.
Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer
Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman -- Should be an easy fight for Herman.
Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon
Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen

[farsscf]

I will agree that the Diaz family is comprised of punks.

[cgc]

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer -- I think that Nate is a little punk.
Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida -- Danzig should get a knock out 1st round.
Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer
Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman -- Should be an easy fight for Herman.
Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon
Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen

I agree here on all counts...

.

[TuffGirl]

MAIN CARD

Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer
Nate might be a punk, but this will be an easy win over Josh "I need a Dentist" Neer! Those Diaz brothers have SPUNK. Growing up in Stockton, they have never backed down from a fight. Nate can pull some 'Stockton Jui-Juitsu' out of his ass in a second and make your GranDaddy cry "Uncle!"

... Oh, And while I'm at, it let me send a shout out to the 209 (Stockton area code) :D

Mac Danzig vs. Clay Guida

Houston Alexander vs. Eric Schafer

Alan Belcher vs. Ed Herman

Kyle Bradley vs. Joe Lauzon

Wilson Gouveia vs. Ryan Jensen



PRELIMINARY CARD

Drew McFedries vs Mike Massenzio
Jason Brilz vs. Brad Morris
Rob Kimmons vs. Dan Miller
Alessio Sakara vs. Joe Vedepo

[farsscf]

What did ya do, copy and paste mine?

[TuffGirl]

What did ya do, copy and paste mine?

Looks like it. I didn't even realize it. Damn. That's strange.

[farsscf]

Great minds....

[TuffGirl]

Performify's (very quick) Picks for UFC Fight Night 15
by Eric Foster on Sep 17, 2008 at 8:54 am ET


* * * *


Results of 2-2, +.2 units on UFC 88 brings my recent running total (since UFC 75) for my public predictions to 55-43 for +22.15 units.



Main Card

Nate Diaz (-220) vs. Josh Neer (+170)

Winner of "The Ultimate Fighter 5," Diaz (9-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is being assigned a 69% chance to pull out the victory against Iowa's Josh "The Dentist" Neer (24-6-1 MMA, 3-3 UFC). Neer has shown improved striking in his past few fights, especially in his unanimous decision victory over Din Thomas at UFC Fight Night 13. Despite improved striking, however, Neer has demonstrated some vulnerability to submissions, getting tapped in his career by Drew Fickett, Nick Thompson and, most recently, by Nate's brother Nick Diaz. While Neer's improved striking should make this a much more competitive fight than Neer's one-sided loss to Diaz's older brother at UFC 62, I still believe that we'll see the younger Diaz utilize his jab to keep Neer's power at bay en route to a second round win by way of submission once this fight eventually hits the ground.

Clay Guida (-165) vs. Mac Danzig (+135)

Guida (23-9 MMA, 4-3 UFC) is 2-3 in his past five, rebounding with a victory over Samy Schiavo at UFC Fight Night 13 after losing to Roger Huerta at the TUF 6 Finale. Guida is a one-dimensional wrestler whose speed and toughness have won him several fights, but he's struggled getting to the next level without significantly well-rounded skills. Danzig (18-4-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC) is almost exactly the opposite; he's the definition of a modern, well-rounded mixed martial artist with solid striking and excellent submissions. This is a solid test for Danzig, to see if he's ready to take the next step in his career after winning "The Ultimate Fighter 6" and out-grappling a tough Mark Bocek at UFC 83. I like Danzig here as a small underdog; Guida's past three losses (Roger Huerta, Tyson Griffin and Din Thomas) make me think he's beatable by a well-rounded fighter, and Danzig is certainly that. Danzig by submission in a later round.

Ed Herman (-265) vs. Alan Belcher (+205)

Look for Herman (14-6 MMA, 3-3 UFC) to use his typically aggressive approach to try to overwhelm Belcher (12-5 MMA, 3-3 UFC). Belcher holds a purple belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu but hasn't demonstrated elite-level grappling skills, losing to Kendall Grove by submission at UFC 69. He was most recently knocked out by Canadian Jason Day at UFC 83 in the first round, and it will be interesting to see if he comes back "gun shy" after the KO. Herman should have an edge in wrestling, which should be enough to neutralize Belcher's offensive submissions. I expect Herman to win a unanimous decision with a conservative gameplan and ground and pound. Herman would have to win this fight more than 75% of the time to be worth a bet at the current line, and I'm definitely not that confident to recommend a play even though a Herman victory is the most likely outcome here.

Houston Alexander (-285) vs. Eric Schafer (+225)

A couple quick observations that MMA fans need to keep in mind for this fight:

1) Houston Alexander's ground game is not as bad as it appeared against Thiago Silva at UFC 78.
2) Houston Alexander's chin is not as soft as it appeared against James Irvin at Fight Night 13.

That said, Eric Schafer's ground skills are much better than Alexander's, and if Schafer spends much time in a dominant position (i.e. puts Alexander on his back), this fight will be over quickly. Alexander's striking, speed and athleticism are all strengths against Schafer. Don't be surprised if you see some better grappling skills from Alexander than you might expect, and don't be surprised to see Schafer do a bit better on the feet than you might expect; he's got a significant reach advantage and should try to keep Alexander at bay with jabs and leg kicks. Schafer has lost his past two UFC fights by TKO (against Michael Bisping and Stephan Bonnar), and Alexander's Muay Thai skills should be up to the task of knocking out Schafer here.

Still, at the current line, Alexander is being predicted to win almost 75% of the time. I was hoping for a more favorable line, hoping that Alexander would be more underrated after losing his past two fights. However, I think the betting line is an indication that the impact Alexander made in his first two fights has stuck through his two losses, and if anything the betting line overvalues him against Schafer's submission threat. I can't argue with those who are recommending a play on Schafer here, but I'd like to see better odds than the approximately 30% chance that Schafer is being assigned.

Undercard

Alessio Sakara (-130) vs. Joe Vedepo (+100)

Vedepo (7-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a local Midwestern fighter from neighboring Iowa who is making his UFC debut. The 25-year-old former light heavyweight and standout high school wrestler has never gone to decision; he's won four fights via knockout and three by submission. He's got strong ground and pound, and a solid chin.

Sakara (12-7 MMA, 3-4 UFC) will look to push his UFC record to .500. He most recently suffered a loss to Chris Leben at UFC 82 in March. The hard-hitting Italian's other losses have come to Houston Alexander, Drew McFedries and Dean Lister; victories have come over James Lee and Victor Valimaki via knockout, and Elvis Sinosic via unanimous decision. The American Top Team fighter has lost four of his past six fights.

If Vedepo is smart, he puts Sakara on his back quickly and brings out the aggressive ground and pound quickly. Sakara will look to keep things standing and utilize his edge in experience and striking discipline to give the rookie a tough welcome to the UFC. If Vedepo were a larger underdog, I'd recommend a play there, but with a line this close, the variability is too high to recommend either side.

Wilson Gouveia (-400) vs. Ryan Jensen (+300)

Wilson Gouveia (10-5 MMA, 4-2 UFC) looks to rebound from a disappointing TKO loss to Goran Reljic at UFC 84, a loss which ended a five-fight UFC win streak for the Brazilian. As a local fighter from Omaha, Neb., Jensen -- a strong wrestler -- will certainly have the crowd on his side. Still, Jensen is 0-2 in the UFC, submitted both times, and Gouveia is a BJJ black belt. Jensen also took this fight on just over two weeks' notice, and it's hard to recommend a play despite what look like semi-attractive odds.

Joe Lauzon (-1100) vs. Kyle Bradley (+600)

Wow. Just, wow. "J-Lau" is almost a 92% favorite here, coming off a TKO loss to Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 13. A protege of Rich Clementi, Bradley has a 13-5 MMA record and had won seven fights in a row before falling short in his UFC debut against Chris Lytle at UFC 81. This line is almost identical to the massive gap in Anderson Silva vs. Patrick Cote (-1150 for Silva, or 92% exactly). I understand completely why Silva's dominance means he's such a huge favorite over Cote, but Lauzon coming off a loss shouldn't be this big of a favorite. Take a small flier on Bradley, even though it's not likely he can win, the odds are simply too large to pass up.

Jason Brilz (-275) vs. Brad Morris (+215)

Local fighter Jason Brilz brings a 15-1-1 MMA record to his UFC debut. Brilz hasn't lost since September 2001 -- an 11-fight streak without being beaten. Australian Brad Morris is 9-3 in MMA and 0-1 in the UFC after dropping his debut to Cain Velasquez at UFC 83. If this line were significantly closer, I'd recommend a play on Brilz, but I haven't seen enough of Morris to recommend an underdog play at these odds.

Drew McFedries (-190) vs. Mike Massenzio (+150)

Massenzio holds a 10-2 MMA record and is making his UFC debut. If you were a die-hard IFL fan, you might recognize Massenzio, who actually dropped his most recent fight (before getting called up to the big leagues) at IFL Connecticut in May 2008. McFedries has five fights in the UFC, a 3-2 UFC record in those fights, and not one of the five has gone out of the first round, win or loss. Massenzio is a decorated grappler and wrestler, despite only having a blue belt in BJJ. His past five fights have ended by submission while McFedries' past three wins are all by KO or TKO. Expect a classic striker vs. grappler battle here, with McFedries scoring a quick first-round knockout. Still, this is not a fight I'd consider betting, with McFedries' recent inconsistent performances and Massenzio's lack of big-stage experience.

Dan Miller (-140) vs. Rob Kimmons (+110)

Miller holds an 8-1 MMA record and comes into this fight off a submission victory over Ryan McGivern at IFL Connecticut. Miller's lone loss was a split decision to Masenzio in April 2006. Kansas City's Rob Kimmons holds a 21-3 MMA record and is 1-0 in the UFC after submitting Rob Yundt at The Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale. I've seen Kimmons fight several times, and he's got the skills to make an impact on the relatively thin 185-pound division. While I've seen fewer of Miller's fights, I think Kimmons has better striking and better submission skills. As such, I think this is a great spot to bet him and that he should be a moderate favorite instead of a slight underdog. Still, I haven't seen enough of Miller to make this a huge play, especially given the larger volitility inherent in such a close line.

Performify's Public Picks for UFC Fight Night 15:

Nate Diaz (-220): 1.1u to win .5u
Mac Danzig (+135): 0.74u to win 1u
Kyle Bradley (+600): 0.1u to win 0.6u
Rob Kimmons (+110): 1u to win 1.1u

[pokey151]

Looking forward to tonight's fights... There are a lot of good matchups here and I think we're in for a good show. Diaz & Lauzon's fights are the ones I want to see.

[taf1968]

Alexander has been really good . . . and really, really bad. But since he's a Husker and this is in Omaha, I'll give him the nod. He should be pumped up to get after it in his backyard.

Diaz is a very skilled fighter . . . but he's a world-class douche as well. I treat him like Notre Dame football--cheer for whoever the opponent is.

:D

Guida has great conditioning and wrestling . . . and a hard head from what I have seen. SHould be a good fight with Danzig. I'd give Danzig the edge, but Guida definitely has a chance there.

[TuffGirl]

Mac Danzig - LOST

Ed Herman - LOST

Houston Alexander - LOST

Damn! :eek:

I'm 0 for 3!

[rpaul11]

Mac Danzig - LOST

Ed Herman - LOST

Houston Alexander - LOST

Damn! :eek:

I'm 0 for 3!

that's ok...I still like ya :p

[ntrllftr]

Mac Danzig - LOST

Ed Herman - LOST

Houston Alexander - LOST

Damn! :eek:

I'm 0 for 3!

Someone call 911...
Herman got robbed!!!

[TuffGirl]

Nate! Love me some DIAZ Brothers! :eek:

[cgc]

Mac Danzig - LOST

Ed Herman - LOST

Houston Alexander - LOST

Damn! :eek:

I'm 0 for 3!


See, Yeah....
- Danzig lost.
- I thnk the Herman fight was close but he should have won the decission in my book.
- Alexander needs to move to strait Kickboxing if he's not going to take the time to learn any ground work. I said it over in the MMA section, but he looks like it's just an alien world to him when he's on his back...He keeps getting tooled on the ground, it's time for a change of either learning some ground skills or moving to KB instead of MMA. And I hate that cause the guy is a beast.

.

[TuffGirl]

Diaz, Neer, Sakara and Gouveia earn $30K "Fight Night" bonuses
by MMAjunkie.com Staff on Sep 18, 2008 at 9:05 am ET
Headliners Nate Diaz and Josh Neer, as well as undercard fighters Alessio Sakara and Wilson Gouveia, earned $30,000 "fight night" bonuses stemming from Wednesday's UFC Fight Night 15 event.

The event took place at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Neb., and aired on Spike TV.

Diaz and Neer split Fight of the Night honors, Sakara earned the Knockout of the Night, and Gouveia secured the Submission of the Night bonus.

In the night's main event, Diaz used a late-fight surge to edge Neer for a split-decision victory. Both lightweights had opportunities to finish the fight, but the decision was ultimately the judges' to make. Diaz earned the split-decision nod for his fifth consecutive win in the UFC.

Sakara -- never one to post a boring performance -- needed just 87 seconds to floor UFC newcomer Joe Vedepo with a knockout via head kick. The Italian striker's past three victories have all come via KO.

Gouveia, meanwhile, picked up his fourth victory in his past five fights with a slick, second-round arm-bar submission of local fighter Ryan Jensen. Gouveia edged Eric Schafer, Mike Massenzio and Dan Miller for the submission bonus.

PRELIMINARY RESULTS

Alessio Sakara def. Joe Vedepo via knockout (head kick) -- Round 1, 1:27
Wilson Gouveia def. Ryan Jensen via submission (arm-bar) -- Round 2, 2:04
Joe Lauzon def. Kyle Bradley via TKO (strikes) -- Round 2, 1:34
Jason Brilz def. Brad Morris via TKO (strikes) -- Round 2, 2:54
Mike Massenzio def. Drew McFedries via submission (kimura) -- Round 1, 1:28
Dan Miller def. Rob Kimmons via submission (rear-naked choke) -- Round 1, 1:27

[TuffGirl]

DIAZ AND NEER BATTLE IT OUT AT UFC FIGHT NIGHT
Wednesday, September 17, 2008 - by Al Yu, MMAWeekly.com


Ultimate Fighter season five winner Nate Diaz faced off against Josh Neer in the main event of the evening. "The Dentist" had the support of former UFC champion Jens Pulver and LC Davis in his corner while Diaz was supported by his older brother Nick.

Diaz impressed the fans with smooth transitions into submission attempts while Neer scored more damage with his strikes and slams.

Both fighters showed excellent poise and resilience in defending the offense of each other, making it a highly entertaining yet technical fight.

After three exciting rounds, Nate Diaz was awarded a split decision. The fight was very close and the victory could have gone to either fighter. Some of the fans expressed their displeasure regarding the decision but were ultimately pleased by the fight as a whole.

The Cesar Jiu-Jitsu fighter gave Neer a lot of credit afterwards for his ability to defend against Diaz?s submission attempts.

"Josh Neer, he ain't no black belt in Jiu-Jitsu like the other guys I've been fighting. This (expletive), this dude right here can fight. All these other Jiu-Jitsu guys and (expletive) and wrestlers, ya'll need to learn how to box. Get in here and fight us. This dude is down."

"I train hard. I just try to work my ass off, I ain't quitting. Neither is that dude (pointing at Neer)."

[TuffGirl]

MMAWeekly has obtained the fighter salary information for UFC Fight Night 15 featuring Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer, which took place on Wednesday, Sept. 17, at the Omaha Civic Auditorium in Omaha, Neb.

The following figures are based on the fighter salary information that promoters are required by law to submit to the state athletic commissions, including the winners' bonuses.

Although mixed martial arts fighters do not have collective bargaining or a union, the fighters' salaries are still public record, just as with every other major sport in the United States. Any undisclosed bonuses that a promoter also pays its fighters, but does not disclose to the athletic commissions (specifically, pay-per-view bonuses, fight of the night bonuses, etc.), are not included in the figures below.

In the listings below, "Main Event Fighters" are defined as fighters who compete in the main event of a show. "Main Card Fighters" are defined as fighters whose fights appear on the main card, but not in the main event. "Preliminary Card Fighters" are defined as fighters whose matches take place before the live broadcast goes on the air, regardless of whether or not those matches end up airing on the TV or Internet broadcast.


MAIN EVENT FIGHTERS

? Nate Diaz ($40,000/win bonus was $20,000) def. Josh Neer ($9,000)
*Each also earned an extra $30,000 for "UFC Fight Night 15 Fight of the Night"


MAIN CARD FIGHTERS

? Clay Guida ($26,000/win bonus was $13,000) def. Mac Danzig ($15,000)

? Alan Belcher ($26,000/win bonus was $13,000) def. Ed Herman ($16,000)

? Eric Schafer ($12,000/win bonus was $6,000) def. Houston Alexander ($13,000)


PRELIMINARY CARD FIGHTERS

? Alessio Sakara ($34,000/win bonus was $17,000) def. Joe Vedepo ($3,000)
*Sakara also earned an extra $30,000 for "UFC Fight Night 15 Knockout of the Night"

? Wilson Gouveia ($36,000/win bonus was $18,000) def. Ryan Jensen ($4,000)
*Gouveia also earned an extra $30,000 for "UFC Fight Night 15 Submission of the Night"

? Joe Lauzon ($20,000/win bonus was $10,000) def. Kyle Bradley ($4,000)

? Jason Brilz ($6,000/win bonus was $3,000) def. Brad Morris ($4,000)

? Mike Massenzio ($6,000/win bonus was $3,000) def. Drew McFedries ($16,000)

? Dan Miller ($10,000/win bonus was $5,000) def. Rob Kimmons ($5,000)


UFC FIGHT NIGHT 15 DISCLOSED FIGHTER PAYROLL: $305,000



UFC FIGHT NIGHT 15 AWARD BONUSES
(as disclosed by UFC officials to MMAWeekly.com)
Each fighter received a $30,000 bonus for the following awards.

Fight of the Night:
-Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer

Knockout of the Night:
-Alessio Sakara

Submission of the Night:
-Wilson Gouveia