OT: "Peak oil"

[johnnyironboard]

A few links to help explain the world's oil production profile. I'm a Petroleum Engineer so forgive me if some links are technical. This isn't a political debate it's only about reserves and production.

The best book I know of is "The coming oil crisis" by Colin Campbell. I read it in 1998 and still refer to it often. That book has changed my life.

http://www.oilcrisis.com/Campbell/

M.King hubbert led the way to modeling depletion based on reserve discoveries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory

The Hubbert Center for Petroleum Supply Studies had several good newsletters.

http://hubbert.mines.edu/



Matt Simmons has done a lot work as well.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Connecticut%20College.pdf

this one is very good I recommend it to everyone.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/giantoilfields.pdf

Jim Rogers:

http://www.amazon.com/Hot-Commodities-Anyone-Invest-Profitably/dp/140006337X

Review of Saudi Arabia:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Kuwait%20Talk.pdf

http://www.twilightinthedesert.com/

Production simulation for Ghawar the worlds largest field:

http://www.theoildrum.com/files/17_Ghawar_basecase.png

[chodan9]

I thought this was gonna be about some kind of oil that gives you higher peaks on your biceps :(

[John Prophet]

IMO peak oil is a fraud. They told us we were out of oil in 73.

There is way more than enough oil in the world.

two words for you "artificial scarcity"

[johnnyironboard]

IMO peak oil is a fraud. They told us we were out of oil in 73.

There is way more than enough oil in the world.

two words for you "artificial scarcity"

note the date of the peak in US production.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.p ng

oil isn't the issue- cheap oil is.

[John Prophet]

yeah, ARTIFICAL scarcity. as in big companies buying out smaller ones and then closing or limiting production

The Myth of Peak Oil (http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm) if nothing else check the links at the bottom showing internal documents from big oil companies where they discuss the need to limit production to increase margins

1 hr audio clip discussing peak oil fraud http://www.prisonplanet.com/audio/110405peakoil.mp3

[johnnyironboard]

yeah, ARTIFICAL scarcity. as in big companies buying out smaller ones and then closing or limiting production

The Myth of Peak Oil (http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm) if nothing else check the links at the bottom showing internal documents from big oil companies where they discuss the need to limit production to increase margins

1 hr audio clip discussing peak oil fraud http://www.prisonplanet.com/audio/110405peakoil.mp3

LOL at those links. I worked EI 330- production went up because we drilled wells!! The reason guys got excited about migration happening during production was that most of the proved reserves were based on a 40% recovery factor of the OOIP- the water drive was strong and the Sor was low so recovery was higher.

The Hubbert center was at the Colorado School of Mines, Jimmy Rogers, Colin Campbell and Matt Simmons are respected all over the world- are your guys? The laws of physics cannot be repealed- no matter who is President or who is in Congress.

[John Prophet]

oh noooooossss...the sky is falling.

if there was truth to peak oil our govts and companies would have found alternative sources and technologies longggggggg ago. instead they just gouge the sheeple more.


or look at it this wya..so u posted peak oil stuff..uhmm, exactly what do u want anyone to do about it??


I personally cannot respond to anymore govt/megacompany fearmongering...theyve already been caught in too many lies.

[johnnyironboard]

oh noooooossss...the sky is falling.

if there was truth to peak oil our govts and companies would have found alternative sources and technologies longggggggg ago. instead they just gouge the sheeple more.


or look at it this wya..so u posted peak oil stuff..uhmm, exactly what do u want anyone to do about it??


I personally cannot respond to anymore govt/megacompany fearmongering...theyve already been caught in too many lies.


Lets assume for a moment you are a smart guy- I am telling you "peak oil" is real and you are arguing with me. Look I don't know why people can look at the data and not know what the answer is(it was obvious to me)- what part of Hubbert Center articles do you not believe (I assume you read them before commenting). Why do all fields decline with the same general profile (I'm sure you read the paper on the worlds largest fields before commenting).

What do I hope to gain from this? For people to start off by talking about the real problem and not a bunch of political or conspiracy bs.

[John Prophet]

Lets assume for a moment you are a smart guy- I am telling you "peak oil" is real and you are arguing with me. Look I don't know why people can look at the data and not know what the answer is(it was obvious to me)- what part of Hubbert Center articles do you not believe (I assume you read them before commenting). Why do all fields decline with the same general profile (I'm sure you read the paper on the worlds largest fields before commenting).

What do I hope to gain from this? For people to start off by talking about the real problem and not a bunch of political or conspiracy bs.

hate to break it to you...but people go to jail everyday for "conspiracy"

bottom line..this is a bbing website.

u want to justify record price gouging and record profits for your industry?..do it somewhere else

there is enough oil in Prudhoe Bay alone to hold the usa for many moons

[EMISGOD]

What's interesting is that the discussion is about a finite and not very replaceable resource (fossil fuels take how long to make?) and yet there is denial that depletion is occurring. This particular resource is being consumed at an awesome rate, yet it's a conspiracy...

I wish people would have actually read the interview that the guy from Shell Oil North America did on CNN as so many are forgetting the history lessons there. Back in the 80's and earlier, there was a lot of oil being recovered from places like North Dakota and Montana, etc. It was nowhere near the level of the Alaskan coast or Texas or Saudi Arabia, but there was production. Enter in the various governments, who decided that this equated to free money and taxed the **** out of the oil companies to the point that it was far cheaper to just import the oil. Because no one ever learns any ****ing thing, we're now back to the same old **** and under the Arabian gun, except this time there's a precedent set. Glenn Beck also did a piece on CNN commenting on synthetic oil and the same thing occurred, except synthetic oil is obviously more expensive to produce.

No **** we're behind the curve in getting to alternate fuel sources. We've been coasting on a free ride for such a long time that it's part of our culture and believed to be part of our birthright, though we're quickly being educated that the latter part is false.

What's also interesting is this supposed governmental benevolence, i.e.


if there was truth to peak oil our govts and companies would have found alternative sources and technologies longggggggg ago. instead they just gouge the sheeple more.

Where do you think they will "find" stuff like this and what incentive is there to do so? It's not as easy as flying a kite during a lightning storm, for example...

On the other hand, looking just at our space program, if there is a governmental mandate in place, even the moon is a very achievable goal. When Kennedy made his announcement, there was no space program to speak of and nothing certain in place, just a bunch of Air Force experiments...

The idea here is to understand the problem in a comprehensive manner before being able to begin to address how it is fixed. The oil companies are operating on a 7.8% margin. The sheer volume alone is what is putting them that far into profitability. It was not so many years ago that they were running losses in those same huge numbers as we see on the plus side now. Windfall taxing them is an idiotic idea that is partially responsible for the current mess and also sets a dangerous precedent by directly stating what is an acceptable amount of money to make, which is a stupid road to ever go down. Finally, before we get too far into pissing on the oil companies for making money (which is what they're supposed to be doing), we should take a look into the mirror at who is financing them...

[dbx]

hate to break it to you...but people go to jail everyday for "conspiracy"

bottom line..this is a bbing website.

u want to justify record price gouging and record profits for your industry?..do it somewhere else

there is enough oil in Prudhoe Bay alone to hold the usa for many moons

Addresses subject
Throws in unwarranted jab
Ends with addressing subject again

No need to be a dick. He started the thread and appropriately labeled it OT. He probably should have included it in the other running thread, but....

You recently tried to tell runners this was exclusively a BBing site, and have been cited for repeatedly doing this type of "monitoring". In case you...um...haven't noticed, this site is much more than a BBing site.

And to respond to the topic, he posted some interesting links and made some intelligent, well thought out comments. And EMI, your response recapped many of the same points I made in the other thread, with some other great points added. Excellent post!

[herculesinwyo]

i have yet to belive it is fossil fuel. oil comes from way deep in the core of the earth, here in wyoming the coal seams are 100 feet deep thats alot of dead fossil with no dirt in the layer, so we have a 100 foot layer of fossil coal with no other minerals in the layer, i see them in person i just dont buy it.
oil is a earth by product that is all.

[John Prophet]

No need to be a dick.

takes one to know one huh?

I state my opinions...u dont like it..go drop, ya know?

[Jules Verne]

The Saudis (and OPEC) should have wiped out US and S. American oil production with artificially low prices when they had the chance (20+ years ago).

Then we'd really be screwed.

It's the volatility in prices that have resulted in the current mess. If $14-18/bbl was guaranteed for 10-15 years in 2000, for instance, we would all be a lot better off, including the oil companies.

BTW if you think all the big oil companies are doing so well, take a look at BP. Also for return on investment, they are not such a great deal either.

Anyway, it's hard to really explain to people that just see the 'pump prices' and oil company names associated with them.

BTW the 'major' oil companies control a tiny portion of the worlds oil supply.

[johnnyironboard]

bottom line..this is a bbing website.

u want to justify record price gouging and record profits for your industry?..do it somewhere else



I posted this in this forum because most folks over 35 are mature, smart, and have people depending on them. I want to inform them so they can be logical and not emotional.

I know plenty of producers that are having a hard time of it. Expenses have skyrocketed, by definition reserve sizes have gotten smaller, and production for a lot has continued to decline. Companies that in the past grew by acquisition are finding very little to buy at these prices- so there production declines and there expenses go up - prices have gone up but they are not doing as well as you think. The big companies with legacy assets have done well- but there reserves and production are declining and there costs are going up as well- profit margins are higher in other industries.

Drilling in ANWR would be great we could use the production, Opening up offshore California would be great believe it or not California has muliple billion barrel fields, Pully Ridge offshore Western Florida could turn out to be good as well.

The companies aren't the only ones doing better.
http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/whatsnew/newsreal/2008/080319.pdf

I said I would not get political but here how you can use this data to project what will happen in the future.

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/giantoilfields.pdf

refer to page 46 of this report and you will notice how Venezuala is on a constant treadmill of adding new wells to offset declines. Chavez has nationalized the oil fields and I guarentee he will not invest the same capital to fight the decline that foreign companies did. The declines will accelerate at the same time he is increasing welfare. When oil prices correct- he will have a huge problem (if I were him I would have an escape route planned).

[kneedragger85]

I love conspiracy theories...

Oil is a commodity and traded. Its price is manipulated by the masses and follows the deepest pockets. More sellers...it goes down. More buyers...it goes up. Sometimes buyers will buy the price up to sell it off...and vice versa.

Price has little, if anything, to do with production.

Funny that I had this conversation with a friend last night. She works for a major oil company in their pricing department. Believe me when I say "gasco" doesn't sit around a big table and suggest making oil $125/barrell. Fat guys with leverage in the commodoties market do. (some may be skinny...I don't know for sure)

added-Why do we get so sad about companies making money?

[EMISGOD]

The Saudis (and OPEC) should have wiped out US and S. American oil production with artificially low prices when they had the chance (20+ years ago).

Then we'd really be screwed.

I believe they didn't because they fully expected to be invaded if they tried that, especially after Israel was established. There is precedent for that belief, such as after Libya had their dicks knocked into the dirt.


BTW if you think all the big oil companies are doing so well, take a look at BP. Also for return on investment, they are not such a great deal either.

Well, refineries (or gas stations maybe) are probably having the worst time of it as there is very little financial incentive at the moment to either refine gas or sell it at the pumps. They apparently are not so into public works of charity, which is seemingly what everyone wants.


Anyway, it's hard to really explain to people that just see the 'pump prices' and oil company names associated with them.

It will be harder to explain when they form into mobs with guns and burning firebrands.

The only real way out of this is to strip demand as low as possible. This will do two things. First, it will get people accustomed to non-reliance on their cars and hopefully erode some of the more wasteful travel habits. Second, as soon as OPEC starts panicking and dumping oil on the market in an effort to stimulate demand through pricing again, we will have bought some degree of time to get to the alternate energy sources, which is where we really need to go ultimately.

[jude-o]

u want to justify record price gouging and record profits for your industry?

The oil industry isn't price gouging. The big oil companies are making about a 10% profit (so, about thirty cents on your $3/gallon (wholesale) gasoline.) While that's a healthy profit, the reason the total profits are so huge (in the billions of dollars per quarter) is because these corporations are absolutely huge, doing huge dollar amounts of business. (By way of comparison, Microsoft and the pharmaceutical companies tend to make about a 30% profit.)

The people who are really getting absurdly rich are the owners of oil fields (mostly middle-eastern nations.)

[John Prophet]

I love conspiracy theories...

Oil is a commodity and traded. Its price is manipulated by the masses and follows the deepest pockets. More sellers...it goes down. More buyers...it goes up. Sometimes buyers will buy the price up to sell it off...and vice versa.

Price has little, if anything, to do with production.

Funny that I had this conversation with a friend last night. She works for a major oil company in their pricing department. Believe me when I say "gasco" doesn't sit around a big table and suggest making oil $125/barrell. Fat guys with leverage in the commodoties market do. (some may be skinny...I don't know for sure)

added-Why do we get so sad about companies making money?


it was announced in the annual Bilderberger meeting in 07 (or 06, not sure offhand) by Henry Kissinger that oil prices would reach $200/barrel. That was well before the prices began their current skyrocketing. But I know..the world elite doesnt sit around and discuss these things

[johnnyironboard]

it was announced in the annual Bilderberger meeting in 07 (or 06, not sure offhand) by Henry Kissinger that oil prices would reach $200/barrel. That was well before the prices began their current skyrocketing. But I know..the world elite doesnt sit around and discuss these things


Jim Rogers wrote about it in his book in 2004 and started his commodity fund in 1999. Colin Campbell wrote about it in 1997. The data has been in the public domain for a very long time - those that chose to study it objectively have not been surprised at all by what has happened.

http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Oil/Inflation_Adj_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm

the attached chart shows the price of oil nominal and inflation adjusted terms back to 1946. Note how the first rise in the 1970's coincided with the peak and start of decline in the US. Of note on this chart is that the price of oil adjusted for inflation was essentially flat from 1946 to 2001 (actually much longer if you go back further when the East Texas field came on in the early 30's oil dropped to ten cents a bbl)-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.p ng

The breakout in 2004 coincided with the Non-Opec peak and demand surge of India and China.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hubbert_world_2004.png

Prices will correct as supply and demand balances things out but the production profiles won't change. BTW the market is working as we do not have shortages, are prices artifically high? no because artificially high prices create surpluses, that is a law of supply and demand, and worldwide inventories are dropping not building.

Two laws of supply and demand:
1. Artifically low prices create shortages.
2. Artifically high prices create surpluses.

law no.1 are why price controls always lead to shortages (and why Russia under communism had chronic shortages). The laws of supply and demand, like the laws of physics, cannot be repealed by politicians (as an aside law no.1 is why socialized medicine can not work).

[dbx]

takes one to know one huh?

Still using the 3rd grade play book, eh?

*expectations met*


I state my opinions...u dont like it..go drop, ya know?

It wasn't your opinion, it was your unwarranted suggestion that I found objectionable.

[kneedragger85]

But I know..the world elite doesnt sit around and discuss these things

Bottom line is Kissinger looked at the current trend of oil consumption and price and made a guess on what it would get to. HOw silly would he have sounded if he predicted it would go to $38/barrell? Everything gets more expensive over time and recognizing that hardly adds validity to the conspiracy theories.

Guys trading corn long-term made a killing with E85. As rumors of its expanded usage spread the demand for corn rose. Thus, corn being a commodity and openly traded, experience a rapid spike in value. More and more folks wanted to be a part of the money...more bought and the price continued to rise. Eventually a large portion of these traders will "sell" to claim profits. When big money sells, the market dips...fear takes over and more sell to lock in their profits and the market falls more and price continues to sink. The guys who sold at the top buy again after panic drops the price $100/bushell and the process starts again.

There is more corn now than 5 years ago because of E85 yet corn is selling at an all time high. Supply and demand has nothing to do with it when the item is traded as a commodity.

This is what I do for a living...trust me when I say deep pockets move markets more than corporate leaders.

[EMISGOD]

There is a certain degree of OPEC price fixing. The last time I heard the $200 figure was from one of the OPEC heads, stating that they would either increase production or drop the price when it hit that level, but were not inclined to bother much until then. I forget his name -- I'll have to try to find it.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/01/news/international/usgas_price/index.htm

[mike_sargent]

Prices will correct as supply and demand balances things out but the production profiles won't change.

It seems to me that the problem is that the demand is inflexible. It doesn't matter whether the supply is short, demand is high, or the price is artificially fixed -- the price of oil goes up, and so far, we have no choice but to pay it.

I imagine there'll someday come a price so steep that we'll choose the alternative, if that's what you call "balance"; but that's a long way off, and a great deal more painful.

Mike

[ServoScanMan]

johnnyironboard,

Im sorry you got slammed for trying to help people think. I had my son (19yr now) research peak oil over 3 years ago. He said it kinda made him wish he knew how to raise animals, farm, and be totally self sufficant. He now says our country had been through many problems in the past and worked throught it.
Ex #1: This country used to run off of whale oil. Now we don't
Ex #2: We had a severe timber shortage in the 1800s. Now we don't.

My son is very optimistic that we will get throught this. It may be painful but we will change.

I bought a Toyota Prius over 2 years ago because at the time it was the greenest, most energy efficent car I could buy. I work at a factory with 1000 workers. There is not one other Prius in the parking lot. The majority of the workers drive the big SUVS and the crew cab Pickups. I have to listen to these guys bitch about gasoline and diesel everyday. At first I tried to explain what was about to happen. They all deny it. It makes me wish that gasoline was $6 per gallon. Maybe they would WAKE up! BTW, when I bought the Prius, I had 20 high school students come over to my house to see it. It seems some of the younger generation is in tune with whats going on globally in our world.

One of the things that disturbs me is it appears that no one in congress is helping push alternate energy incentives. EX: wind, solar, wave. There should be a hugh tax break so smaller investers can break into the field. We also should fast track nuclear energy. I personally believe electric cars is the way to go.

Sorry for the running of the mouth. But I have been biting my tongue at work for years now. I'm just beginning to smile on the outside and laugh my ass off on the inside because all of a sudden those pickup truck dudes are asking me about my gas mileage. :)

[John Prophet]

yes, it would be interesting to see what everyone in this thread drives.

Interesting to see if the peak oil advocates drive fat SUVs.

I drive a tercel...35mpg

[EMISGOD]

yes, it would be interesting to see what everyone in this thread drives.

Interesting to see if the peak oil advocates drive fat SUVs.

I drive a tercel...35mpg

This was addressed somewhat in the other thread and in similar threads prior to both of these two...maybe we should petition Ryan to put it up in our stats under our avatar, since this is apparently such a crucial point that it has to make it into every thread? :rolleyes:

[johnnyironboard]

johnnyironboard,

Im sorry you got slammed for trying to help people think.

I'm used to it. This was a post I made on the OXY board at Yahoo finance:

^^Re: Johnnyironboard 18-Mar-02 06:27 pm Heard you bought some more production when prices were below $20. Good move. We just need companies like Williams to be around when we sell out.<br><br>As you recall in late '98 early '99 I said we'd see $30 oil in three years and $50 in five. That has not changed. The move from early '99 to October of 2000 was wave 1 and we have just completed wave 2 which means we are now in wave 3. This move will carry us to 50+. Since wave 2 was steep and quick on a relative basis wave 4 should be sideways and take some time. Since wave 5's are normally extended in commodities it means the later part of this decade should be very interesting. I don't know the term of you loans as far as collars are concerned. If hedging some helps you sleep then help your sleep. Overpaid CEO's of big companies certainly hedged at worse times than this^^^

Note the last part of the decade comment I made. I was chastised hard for calling $50 oil back then (oil was in the low $20's when I posted that).

[johnnyironboard]

^^^^^

[johnnyironboard]

anybody see Boone Pickens this AM on CNBC?

[johnnyironboard]

My partner is in Europe this week and next- he said the leaders openly talk about peak oil. They think we are denial and kind of foolish for having congressional hearings trying to assign blame for the price going up- they know it's because the world has platdeud(sp) in production.

[partsRheavy]

It's well-known that Europe taxes gas much more than the U.S. does. I'm not going to discuss whether their gas taxes are right or wrong. There are two sides to it that both have merit.

Those who argue that driving is a privilege and not a right might be happy about the European gas taxes - because the high taxes make car ownership a more "special" thing than it is in the United States and they reduce gas consumption.

Those who do not like taxes, in the tradition going back to America's founding (Boston Tea Party), would of course be against the European gas taxes. This philosophical difference between the U.S. and Europe goes back to the roots of our country.

I'm aware that European countries (except Russia) are a lot smaller than the U.S.

Those things as they are...

Europe has been way ahead of the U.S. in the following areas for 20 years or more:

1. Rail infrastructure and clean, comfortable passenger service
2. Subways in major cities and buses in outlying area
3. Bicycle use, at least in some countries

If you go over to Europe, one of the first things that you notice is how much people walk. If you travel independently "on the cheap" (without renting a car and not using a guided tour), you will get lots of cardio in Europe. If a person is in reasonable physical condition, a car is unnecessary to travel around Europe, except maybe to get to remote areas.

I tend to think that this situation where driving is expensive but there are lots of facilities for biking, walking and exercise, tends to promote physical fitness.

Back in early 2005 (gas was about $2.50 here), I was on my way back home from a vacation in Europe. A fellow from England standing next to me in line commented about how many big SUV's he saw when he visited the United States. He was wondering when our mindset would change.


My partner is in Europe this week and next- he said the leaders openly talk about peak oil. They think we are denial and kind of foolish for having congressional hearings trying to assign blame for the price going up- they know it's because the world has platdeud(sp) in production.

[johnnyironboard]

Europe has been way ahead of the U.S. in the following areas for 20 years or more:

1. Rail infrastructure and clean, comfortable passenger service
2. Subways in major cities and buses in outlying area
3. Bicycle use, at least in some countries


Back in early 2005 (gas was about $2.50 here), I was on my way back home from a vacation in Europe. A fellow from England standing next to me in line commented about how many big SUV's he saw when he visited the United States. He was wondering when our mindset would change.

Nuclear power was embraced in the 1970's in Europe and a lot of the gasoline taxes were used to build nuke plants- except for Russia Europe doesn't have any significant oil production so they kind of had to do something different. We are funny in that we have a lot of oil that could be produced and nukes that could be built but enviro's and Democrats(primarily) have made it against the law to develop these assets.

I just got back from a vacation my self- there were six of us with two small children (child seats). We rented a suburban and it was worth every penny.

[John Prophet]

but enviro's and Democrats(primarily) have made it against the law to develop these assets.



who do you reckon funds the enviros??

[StrengthNSmarts]

who do you reckon funds the enviros??
One thing I've heard many times, but I've never seen hard evidence, is that the coal and oil industries were involved in the anti-nuclear movement and the fear mongering surrounding it.
Honestly, I'd rather live near a nuclear plant than a traditional coal burning plant. They're safer.

[partsRheavy]

What interesting replies!

It so happens that I favor nuclear energy! Of the non-fossil fuel sources, it yields the most energy output (electricity) per unit of resources and energy invested (concrete + metal forgings + uranium + electronics...).

Although I'm "liberal" on stuff like transportation policy, I freakin' CRINGE when the Democrats go anti-nuclear power.

I'm politically independent. I tend to feel that the fossil fuel industries fund the anti-nuclear activists on the Left....and the anti-global warming activists on the Right.

A guy named Rod Adams has made some blogs you might be interested about whether the oil/coal interests are connected with the anti-nuclear people -

http://atomicinsights.blogspot.com/search?q=smoking+gun

[johnnyironboard]

Energy chief: Flat production behind oil prices By JOSEPH COLEMAN, Associated Press Writer
2 hours, 9 minutes ago



AOMORI, Japan - Nations should fight rising oil prices by cutting subsidies and vastly increasing investment in energy, while oil-producing countries need to ramp up output and divulge more information about how much they produce, the U.S. energy secretary said Saturday.

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Samuel Bodman, attending two days of meetings in northern Japan among energy chiefs from Group of Eight industrialized countries and other top economies, said the surge in world oil prices was largely a simple problem of supply and demand.

Production has stalled since 2005 at 85 million barrels a day, while economic growth ? particularly in China and India ? has pushed demand ever higher, Bodman said before a meeting of ministers from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, India and China.

"We're in a difficult position where we have a lid on production and we have increasing demand in the world," he told a small group of reporters, dismissing the effects of speculation and unclear inventory levels and other factors on oil prices.

"I would devoutly hope we ... see a reduction of the use of oil in the world on the one hand, and an increase in the supply so we can see some mitigation in the pressure on price," Bodman said.

Oil prices made their biggest single-day surge on Friday, soaring $11 to $138.54 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, an 8 percent increase. That followed a $5.50 increase the day before, taking oil futures more than 13 percent higher in just two days.

While demand has increased as supply has stalled, analysts have also cited the decline of the U.S. dollar, fears about the long-term supply of oil, and aggressive speculation as factors in rising prices.

Bodman said he would likely urge China and other countries at the Japan meeting to slash fuel subsidies, which make gasoline cheaper for consumers ? thereby giving them no reason to reduce consumption and allow prices to level off or drop. The International Energy Agency has estimated that oil subsidies in China, India and the Middle East in 2007 totaled some $55 billion.

At the same time, he urged nations to pay heed to an IEA report that the world needs $22 trillion investment in energy supply infrastructure by 2030 to meet rising demand, while developing alternative energy sources.

"We have a situation where we have these high prices and the only solution is to diversify your resources, diversify your sources of fuel," he said, listing nuclear energy, natural gas and renewable sources such as wind and hydropower.

Lack of transparency in the oil market has also been cited as a possible cause of higher prices. Bodman said that while the United States and host Japan have been "diligent" in disclosing production and consumption data, some other countries need to do more.

Proponents of such transparency, including the IEA, say greater disclosure of accurate statistics helps markets set prices that more precisely reflect supply and demand. Underreporting of production, for instance, can drive prices higher as traders think supply is lower than it actually is.

Rising prices were having a negative effect on world economies. The U.S. government, for instance, reported on Friday the nation's unemployment rate rose to 5.5 percent in May, a monthly rise of half a percentage point, the biggest in 22 years.

Bodman said economic troubles because of high prices would only hurt oil producers.

"It's not good for producing nations to see the U.S. struggling economically. They depend on us to be a significant engine in world economic activity," Bodman said

[johnnyironboard]

Until we get serious about nuclear power we are not getting serious.

[Jules Verne]

Until we get serious about nuclear power we are not getting serious.

I don't know a lot about the subject and history, but it seems to me the biggest problem was that the technology was developed and implemented a bit ahead of it 'time' and that really killed it off when fossil fuels became cheap.

Not to mention the various accidents and thought of transporting all those spent fuel rods around the country and globe.

I hope if we ever do get fusion reactors to be viable, they wont suffer the same fate.

[StrengthNSmarts]

It's saturday and I'm bored, so I'm going to throw this out there...

In california if you have solar or wind, you can send any excess power you generate back to the electric company for credits towards use. Not cash. This ensures that the majority of individuals who look into a solar system or wind power on their own property, will go out of their way to not buy more production capacity than will satisfy their needs. This is a bigtime wasted opportunity!

The power companies should be forced to pay fair market value for the excess power you generate(fair market meaning what they pay a big producer, not what they charge customers) AND they should be forced to take power generated from solar and wind BEFORE they buy from the traditional polluters. This would create a market based incentive for individuals who live in highly windy areas or very sunny areas(like myself) to invest in more solar than they need in order to recoup some costs and maybe even make a little money.

Now, I don't think this would solve any problems over night, however, this would leverage free market principles with sensible regulation that would not require any significant infrastructure investment on the part of the state or power companies, to realize expansion of alternative energy power generation.

Furthermore, on the subject of security, this would be far more secure in the sense of terrorist threats in our nation as 1 big mega producing power plant is far more vulnerable to attack by a few people, than thousands of homes(eventually millions) generating the same amount of power.

This plan is really only bad for the big power producers but that's not really our problem if they have an old and outdated business model. In california, the power companies did used to have to buy your excess at one point(so I'm certain the infrastructure is already in place), but it was during the era of cheap energy, and oddly enough, that stopped and turned into credits around the same time as energy prices began to skyrocket. Had they continued with the ability to sell your excess, I am very certain that there would be substantially more solar and wind private installations. Lost opportunity.

[johnnyironboard]

houses with solar panels and windmills will help but remember we use about 22 million bbls of oil per day and 70% of that is for transportation. Nuclear plants or big wind farms (what Boone Pickens is trying to build) could divert natural gas from electricity production to transportation. The tight shale gas plays look like they could really be a national treasure and could help for transportation.

http://geology.com/articles/marcellus-shale.shtml

[DarinK]

If we have reached peak oil, the production costs of alternative energy sources are going to be extremely high because all of the factories that produce these items require oil.
I was listening to some Coast to Coast AM archives and came across a show in which Matt Savinar said the constuction of an electric car requires 2000 gallons of oil. He also said the resources to produce biodiesel, nuclear power plants, windmills, and solar panels all rely on oil. That means if we are in peak oil, the cost of these alternatives is going to be so high the average homeowner will not be able to afford solar panels or an electric car.
So what's the solution? I have no clue.

[johnnyironboard]

So what's the solution? I have no clue.

from an energy board I regularly post on:

Author: johnnyironboard send pm ? add member to favs ? ignore


view thread, thread start In response to msg 110762 by hotelonthemoon

Recs: 19 Re: OT: NPR - The National Information Station-raise
^^what do you suggest we do, please list 10 potential solutions for peak oil^^

Let the markets work.

Open all areas for exploration.
Don't tax the ability to increase production.
Don't subsidize consumption.
If nukes makes money build them.
If wind makes money build them.
If dams make money build them.
If high prices slow demand let it.
If high prices increase demand for smaller vehicles with higher mpg then build them.
If you want to pay whatever for gasoline you should be allowed to buy all you want.
Keep out politicians that offer a government solution.

The market took us away from whale oil and horses and if allowed to work will see us through this as well.

[StrengthNSmarts]

If we have reached peak oil, the production costs of alternative energy sources are going to be extremely high because all of the factories that produce these items require oil.

They will be higher, but not neccesarily extremely high. You have to remember something about solar panels for instance... The production has been relatively low volume because the demand has been relatively low. If such a policy was enacted, and demand went high enough, the money saved by a much larger mass production would offset some of the other costs. NOT TO MENTION, as we've seen in every industry, the way that we've done things gets innovated in the face of rising material and energy costs and we find ways to cut those costs. Take cars for example. Steel went through the roof and we started using not just plastics, but we came up with different metal alloys and methods of constructing cars that would allow them to be safer, while using less steel in the process.

There's also a different element to consider in what I proposed. Say that yes, they are more expensive. So the big guys dropping 50 million on property and new windmills probably isn't going to happen. However, that's the big guys. Small business people, individuals, don't think like big guys. I helped a friend build a windmill out of used parts. A broken treadmill supplied the generator, and the rest of the stuff was scavenged or bought cheap. The blades were made out of 2 ft of 8" pvc. The receipts when we were done added up to 83 bucks. To be fair, that didn't count the inverter as his house was already wired to have generators hooked up as he has solar and another wind mill.

In the context of requiring power companies to buy such wind power, I think it is realistic to expect 10s of thousands of small operators looking into building clusters of small windmills out of junk parts to make some money. That's just for starters. You open up access to that market to the thousands of tinkerers in this country, and you're going to see classic American innovation occur.



I was listening to some Coast to Coast AM archives and came across a show in which Matt Savinar said the constuction of an electric car requires 2000 gallons of oil. He also said the resources to produce biodiesel, nuclear power plants, windmills, and solar panels all rely on oil. That means if we are in peak oil, the cost of these alternatives is going to be so high the average homeowner will not be able to afford solar panels or an electric car.

Again, think about cars. How much steel did a car require to be built back in the 1950s versus how much is required to build one now. New techniques, new technologies, new materials, ways to use less materials, etc... there is no reason to think that all these things wouldn't be applied to solar, wind, and electric cars. His view of things is based on the concept that we don't innovate, that our current methods are it, that they don't evolve, etc... In other words, his view of things is not based on reality.


So what's the solution? I have no clue.

Well, my proposal isn't meant as a solution in and of itself, there isn't ONE solution, but it would make a difference and I am convinced it is one valid piece of the puzzle. It would cost so little, it should be pursued. Open up the market to let the little guy compete and we'll have real market forces at work on the problem. Not these protected monopolies that masquerade as the free market we have.

[gympunk]

They told us we were out of oil in 73.
There is way more than enough oil in the world.

Who are "they", when did this proclamation make headlines in 1973?

[John Prophet]

Who are "they", when did this proclamation make headlines in 1973?


u dont know your history.

we have a way of forgetting things and therefore the same scams r played on us over and over again. Gee, seems I vaguely remember the big scare a while back was global COOLING....there was another ice age looming etc.

Fast forward 20-30 years or so and now its global warming. warming, cooling....I guess in the minds of those who lie to control, it doesnt matter



Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia

[johnnyironboard]

u dont know your history.

we have a way of forgetting things and therefore the same scams r played on us over and over again. Gee, seems I vaguely remember the big scare a while back was global COOLING....there was another ice age looming etc.

Fast forward 20-30 years or so and now its global warming. warming, cooling....I guess in the minds of those who lie to control, it doesnt matter



Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia

http://icecap.us/

Global cooling is starting again- the PDO is the reason it's a multidecade cycle of ocean temps. Dr.Gray, the hurricane guru, forecasted a couple of decades of warmer temps in the 1970's in the midst of the new ice age hyseria and he is now forecasting a few decades of cooler temps based on this cycle. The icecap site is pretty good it's a bunch of retirement age studs that don't care about getting funded or tenured- just about the truth.

[mike_sargent]

yeah, ARTIFICAL scarcity. as in big companies buying out smaller ones and then closing or limiting production



Even if that were true, what do you think we should do about it? It seems like the solution is the same, whether the scarcity is real or artificial...

What difference does it make why oil prices are high? The solution is to diversify our energy sources. It's good for the consumer (in terms of lower prices), and good for any alternative energy industries that can undersell the fossil fuel industries when the prices get too high.

What other options are there?

Mike

[gympunk]

u dont know your history.
we have a way of forgetting things and therefore the same scams r played on us over and over again. Gee, seems I vaguely remember the big scare a while back was global COOLING....there was another ice age looming etc.
Fast forward 20-30 years or so and now its global warming. warming, cooling....I guess in the minds of those who lie to control, it doesnt matter
Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia

#1) You din't answer my question, who told "us" in 1973 that we were out of oil?

#2) 2007 was the 2nd warmest year on record, (but if a few scientists predicted something else 32 years ago, I guess we should ignore this data....)

http://climateprogress.org/2007/12/11/nasa-hansen-2007-second-warmest-year-ever-warmest-year-likely-by-2010/

[John Prophet]

#1) You din't answer my question, who told "us" in 1973 that we were out of oil?



Thats a bigger question even than "how do I lift weights?"

Ill give you a clue, then u have to do your own reading and research. The Bilderbergers are meeting in Chantilly, Va this past weekend. Ask yourself how approx 125 of the worlds most powerful people meet every year and youve never heard of it. They get together for their little meeting and they decide your future for the next year. In this, and other such NONgovt meetings the policies are set and then what is shown to us on TV in official govt meetings is just the charade of those decisions being carried out.

OH, btw, plenty of media moguls attend also. If two washed up retired NFL players were seen eating at IHOP it would be on the news....yet 125 heads of state and industry and finances can meet and it is totally blacked out.


In a nutshell that is going to answer "who" to just about any question you ask? for instance "who is pushing a global warming scam in order to bring about a world global carbon tax?" (to further crush Amreicas once powerful and free middle class and bring us into 3rd world status)

Whether you or anyone else in this thread or forum decides to believe it is up to you....for the last 5-6 years or so ive looked at too much evidence and too many of THEIR own written documents (plenty available online) for me to believe in our fairly tale charade anymore.

in the end, you either have a conspiritorial view of events or a coincidental view. Either wars and such are premeditated events planned out long in advance..or they are total concidences that just happen to come along at random.

[IR45N]

Not going to wade thru the whole thing and 'solutions' that are 10-20 years down the road don't mean a d**n thing to me. It's sobering though. School districts bussing kids this fall, City/county governments with fiscal years begnning July 1. Car dealerships with big new/used trucks they can't unload & owners of big trucks/suv's with payment balances more than it's now worth. How some of these little strip mall businesses will stay in business....how they ever stayed in business, I dunno.
Airlines and airfares; eventually those who booked a long time ago will dry up; I just checked for a possible flight for myself; was $290 early may; now it's $560:eek: Flying will now revert back to the early days; for the rich and big business travelers BUT, unlike the past, the 'driving is cheaper' thinking is gone. Heating oil, gas, electric this winter....don't want to think about it.

Ok, so there are probably a lot of flaws in the above. Saudi Arabia, gas is 45c /gal.....reported on the news a couple weeks ago. So, yeah, the gas IS there; even they'd be paying more if there was a shortage imho. A necessary commodity mainly in areas that would be very happy if we'd just disappear.

I have no answers. I am irked; the Prius has been on the road for 10 years and America's Big 3 are still talking 'maybe in 5 years we'll have something'. GM touts the electric 'VOLT'...think that will be priced like a COBALT?! If cars could/can actually be made to get 50/60 mpg......maybe that is like squeezing blood from a turnip.....then $4+ gas would be a lot more palatable. Sobering times, for sure. Sorry this OT post went on so long.

[John Prophet]

If cars could/can actually be made to get 50/60 mpg......maybe that is like squeezing blood from a turnip

maybe im senile. Seems I remember a honda getting 54MPG highway, like 20+ years ago

[gympunk]

Thats a bigger question even than "how do I lift weights?"
Ill give you a clue, then u have to do your own reading and research. The Bilderbergers are meeting in Chantilly, Va this past weekend. Ask yourself how approx 125 of the worlds most powerful people meet every year and youve never heard of it. They get together for their little meeting and they decide your future for the next year. In this, and other such NONgovt meetings the policies are set and then what is shown to us on TV in official govt meetings is just the charade of those decisions being carried out.
OH, btw, plenty of media moguls attend also. If two washed up retired NFL players were seen eating at IHOP it would be on the news....yet 125 heads of state and industry and finances can meet and it is totally blacked out.
In a nutshell that is going to answer "who" to just about any question you ask? for instance "who is pushing a global warming scam in order to bring about a world global carbon tax?" (to further crush Amreicas once powerful and free middle class and bring us into 3rd world status)
Whether you or anyone else in this thread or forum decides to believe it is up to you....for the last 5-6 years or so ive looked at too much evidence and too many of THEIR own written documents (plenty available online) for me to believe in our fairly tale charade anymore.
in the end, you either have a conspiritorial view of events or a coincidental view. Either wars and such are premeditated events planned out long in advance..or they are total concidences that just happen to come along at random.


OK, you're not saying anything. Might as well ask "Why do we park on drive ways and drive on parkways??" You're trying to make whatever your point is sound so.......mysterious & evil,,,,

[IR45N]

maybe im senile. Seems I remember a honda getting 54MPG highway, like 20+ years ago

1988? Yikes, that seems like yesterday to me. Would have been a manual Civic & they didn't look half bad. I remember really wanting a Prelude; a high end Honda at the time. Haven't driven a manual in decades; yes, I'm a wuss.

I do remember the '70s gas "shortage:rolleyes:" years and how $1.50/gal gas was outrageous. Wish I didn't also remember 30c/gal gas!

[DarinK]

Ill give you a clue, then u have to do your own reading and research. The Bilderbergers are meeting in Chantilly, Va this past weekend. Ask yourself how approx 125 of the worlds most powerful people meet every year and youve never heard of it. They get together for their little meeting and they decide your future for the next year. In this, and other such NONgovt meetings the policies are set and then what is shown to us on TV in official govt meetings is just the charade of those decisions being carried out.

You listen to Alex Jones don't you?

[John Prophet]

OK, you're not saying anything. Might as well ask "Why do we park on drive ways and drive on parkways??" You're trying to make whatever your point is sound so.......mysterious & evil,,,,

actually I thought I was fairly straighforward. Freedom is rare..slavery is normal.

What do you call it when powerful elite families control the destinies of their fellow men? What do you call it when a few elite families control basically every top business and govt thru interlocking directorships? What do you call it when the same international banking families fund both sides of every war and thus they manipulate events to keep a continual war state? What do you call it when the same few companies that make trillions off of continual war also own 99% of your media outlets? What do you call a system where to advance up the ladder you almost MUST go thru one or more "channels" established by those same elite families? for instance to be anyone in politics you almost HAVE to come up thru or be member of one of the following: Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commision, Rhodes Scholarship, Demolay, Skull and Bones. Nevermind that those organizations are controlled by a tiny handfull of elite families and that 80-90% of our leaders come thru those few controlling hands. How is it that BOTH of your Prez "choices" in 2004 came from one tiny little bitty Secret Society at Yale?

It sounds mysterious and evil because it is just that. When there is a long and detailed history of secret manipulations it is hard to say it isnt evil. What we are presented on TV etc is just a little punch and judy show. If you call it anything BUT propaganda then you are being fooled. The decisions are literally made in meetings long beforehand. Then the policies are passed down and all of the think tanks start to write their papers to promote those policies. Then, gee what are the odds, the President forms a public council to look at this or that problem and, golly gee, he sites all of those white papers etc from those think tanks. You dont get to see the decisions being made ahead of time...u just see the part thats for public consumption. All you get to see is the hollywood style false front.

As a matter of fact, its just one tiny little bitty detail but it is official policy for Bushs White house to push out fake news stories as if they are real. Of course the GAO told him it was illegal to do that...but he basically said "so what" and increased the budget for this illegal operation. Armstrong Williams was the tiniest little bitty tip of the iceberg.


read for yourself....im going to hit golf balls today, lol.


google:

Illuminati
Moneymasters
Federal Reserve fraud (monopoly men)(creaturee from Jekyll Island)
Bilderbergers
Trilateral Commission
Skull and Bones
Council on Foreign Relations
Club of Rome
New World Order (overall name for the elite control movement)

[Jules Verne]

We are certainly not out of oil.

But prices will have to stay high (without the fear of dropping back to $10-20/bbl) for most of the undeveloped sources to become economically viable.

Actually at a stable $100-$150/bbl, the US might just become the new 'world oil barron'. Possibly.....

Then you can really say goodbye to alternative energy!

[ChocoChick]

Slightly O/T: What does anyone know about the various automobile conversion kits that claim to enhance gas mileage?

[johnnyironboard]

maybe im senile. Seems I remember a honda getting 54MPG highway, like 20+ years ago

My '88 civic was in the 30's- a stick with four bucket seats.

[johnnyironboard]

What do you call it when powerful elite families control the destinies of their fellow men? What do you call it when a few elite families control basically every top business and govt thru interlocking directorships? What do you call it when the same international banking families fund both sides of every war and thus they manipulate events to keep a continual war state? What do you call it when the same few companies that make trillions off of continual war also own 99% of your media outlets? What do you call a system where to advance up the ladder you almost MUST go thru one or more "channels" established by those same elite families? for instance to be anyone in politics you almost HAVE to come up thru or be member of one of the following: Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commision, Rhodes Scholarship, Demolay, Skull and Bones. Nevermind that those organizations are controlled by a tiny handfull of elite families and that 80-90% of our leaders come thru those few controlling hands. How is it that BOTH of your Prez "choices" in 2004 came from one tiny little bitty Secret Society at Yale?


What does any of that have to do with fluid flow through porous media? (the phyics behind oil production and depletion)

[gympunk]

google:

Illuminati
Moneymasters
Federal Reserve fraud (monopoly men)(creaturee from Jekyll Island)
Bilderbergers
Trilateral Commission
Skull and Bones
Council on Foreign Relations
Club of Rome
New World Order (overall name for the elite control movement)

Oh, now I get it, you're one of those guys...I've read about most of those things... they're all like a 2nd rate Hollywood movie thriller, minimal details & logic, lots of OMINOUS PORTENT though....
A million words later you never answered: who & where did "they" tell us in 1973 that we were out of oil?

[John Prophet]

Oh, now I get it, you're one of those guys...I've read about most of those things... they're all like a 2nd rate Hollywood movie thriller, minimal details & logic, lots of OMINOUS PORTENT though....
A million words later you never answered: who & where did "they" tell us in 1973 that we were out of oil?

youre not interested...no problemo

[johnnyironboard]

Who are "they", when did this proclamation make headlines in 1973?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.p ng


The US peaked in oil production in 1971- at that time we produced more than Saudi Arabia does today.

[dbx]

... they're all like a 2nd rate Hollywood movie thriller, minimal details & logic, lots of OMINOUS PORTENT though....

A guy on another site I'm a member of posted a video of the "World Order" thing, and then asked, "Wow, this is really scary stuff, is this true?" What's really scary, is that someone would have to ask such a question, and that there are actually people who believe in such things. At first, I honestly thought it was a SNL skit I'd missed 25yrs ago. LOL, the narration reminded me of the Faces of Death videos in both, voice and melodrama :rolleyes:

[ServoScanMan]

Slightly O/T: What does anyone know about the various automobile conversion kits that claim to enhance gas mileage?

I believe they are all a scam. Just my opinion. :)

[D1111]

I thought this was gonna be about some kind of oil that gives you higher peaks on your biceps :(

yeah SYNTHOL!!!!!!

[John Prophet]

A guy on another site I'm a member of posted a video of the "World Order" thing, and then asked, "Wow, this is really scary stuff, is this true?" What's really scary, is that someone would have to ask such a question, and that there are actually people who believe in such things. At first, I honestly thought it was a SNL skit I'd missed 25yrs ago. LOL, the narration reminded me of the Faces of Death videos in both, voice and melodrama :rolleyes:

not sure what video you watched. I do know that sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction. That there is a relatively small group of people controlling most of the world is beyond debate IMO.

If one cant be bothered to do a little reading or research on their own, then they simply cant be informed. Id suggest anythign by G Edward GRiffin. He has been around for a good while and his work stands the test of time.

Federal Reserve Scam http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6507136891691870450&q=G+Edward+GRiffin&ei=S-VMSNiwEIO8rwKw6c2WDA&hl=en

G Edward Griffin interviewing Norman Dodds http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=848650195892827201&q=G+Edward+GRiffin&ei=dOVMSKCKO57GrQLcgYGzDA&hl=en


I dont see it is 2nd rate drama stuff. I see it is a very sad fact. That America has been almost brought to its knees is pretty obvious.

interesting quotes from famous people about a "world order" or 'New World ORder" http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6456720191173207616&q=nwo+quotes&ei=f-ZMSN-DBZSUrgKWv8SeDA no big deal...just the destruction of American Soveriegnty

[dbx]

not sure what video you watched. I do know that sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction. That there is a relatively small group of people controlling most of the world is beyond debate IMO.

The video I had previously seen was different, yet along the same lines as the first one you linked.


If one cant be bothered to do a little reading or research on their own, then they simply cant be informed.

Thanks for posting the additional videos, as they confirmed what 60 seconds into the first one I had previously watched confirmed; that people like you are complete idiots. What truly scares me the most is that people like you can vote and reproduce.

[johnnyironboard]

What truly scares me the most is that people like you can vote and reproduce.


The founding fathers originally had the ownership of property qualification for voting for a good reason. I think everyone should have the same amount of votes as dollars they pay in taxes, rich people don't pay taxes remember, you pay $100,000 you get 100,000 votes. You pay $1 you get 1 vote. You collect welfare and don't pay anything your vote counts as 1/4 vote.

[TDetroit]

i am a financial guy,

I am worried about a price crash.

the conversations I am having with clients who want to invest in oil (btw, they have been in oil since 2003) sound the same as the conversations about tech stocks we had in 1997 and 1998. not quite 1999 yet, but getting there fast. I am worried that we aren't pulling enough money out of oil and putting it in stocks and bonds, and then the crach will happen and all of my clients will leave for the same reason they came to me after the tech crash

[EMISGOD]

A guy on another site I'm a member of posted a video of the "World Order" thing, and then asked, "Wow, this is really scary stuff, is this true?" What's really scary, is that someone would have to ask such a question, and that there are actually people who believe in such things. At first, I honestly thought it was a SNL skit I'd missed 25yrs ago. LOL, the narration reminded me of the Faces of Death videos in both, voice and melodrama :rolleyes:

Was it "Zeitgeist", possibly? I remember one that heavily referenced something touchingly referred to as the "North American Union"...

[bubba g]

IMO peak oil is a fraud. They told us we were out of oil in 73.

There is way more than enough oil in the world.

two words for you "artificial scarcity"

Agreed...

[dbx]

Was it "Zeitgeist", possibly? I remember one that heavily referenced something touchingly referred to as the "North American Union"...

I think you've got it, but it wasn't titled Zeitgeist, at least, not that I recall. OK, I went and found it :). It mentions Zeitgeist in the opening, but you can see it's titled as "N. American Union & Vchip..". Yes, this one ties in Vchips too, lofl, as well as a "world order". Like the others posted here, it takes simple catch phrases, half truths, and...um...lots of liberties, and turns them into "a conspiracy beyond your wildest dreams". I can hear Twilight Zone music......... OH, here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vuBo4E77ZXo

I cannot begin to tell you how disturbing it is to me that people would even entertain the notion for more than one minute. I'm only glad that nobody asked "why don't you believe it?", as the blatantly obvious limitations of their rational thought processes would be a non-starter for me.

[EMISGOD]

I cannot begin to tell you how disturbing it is to me that people would even entertain the notion for more than one minute. I'm only glad that nobody asked "why don't you believe it?", as the blatantly obvious limitations of their rational thought processes would be a non-starter for me.

Posting stuff like this is really only begging the question so....ummm....why didn't you...ahhhh... :D

Oh nevermind. ;)

[johnnyironboard]

Agreed...


based on what?

[johnnyironboard]

given boone's testimony on capitol hill I wanted to bump this.

FYI this AM natural gas inventories went to a 414 bcf yoy deficit- even though natural prices are high the deficit continues to build. Given the hot summer natural gas prices may get very high next winter(throw a hurricane in the mix offshore La and it could be a lot worse).

[doncarlin]

actually I thought I was fairly straighforward. Freedom is rare..slavery is normal.

What do you call it when powerful elite families control the destinies of their fellow men? What do you call it when a few elite families control basically every top business and govt thru interlocking directorships? What do you call it when the same international banking families fund both sides of every war and thus they manipulate events to keep a continual war state? What do you call it when the same few companies that make trillions off of continual war also own 99% of your media outlets? What do you call a system where to advance up the ladder you almost MUST go thru one or more "channels" established by those same elite families? for instance to be anyone in politics you almost HAVE to come up thru or be member of one of the following: Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commision, Rhodes Scholarship, Demolay, Skull and Bones. Nevermind that those organizations are controlled by a tiny handfull of elite families and that 80-90% of our leaders come thru those few controlling hands. How is it that BOTH of your Prez "choices" in 2004 came from one tiny little bitty Secret Society at Yale?

It sounds mysterious and evil because it is just that. When there is a long and detailed history of secret manipulations it is hard to say it isnt evil. What we are presented on TV etc is just a little punch and judy show. If you call it anything BUT propaganda then you are being fooled. The decisions are literally made in meetings long beforehand. Then the policies are passed down and all of the think tanks start to write their papers to promote those policies. Then, gee what are the odds, the President forms a public council to look at this or that problem and, golly gee, he sites all of those white papers etc from those think tanks. You dont get to see the decisions being made ahead of time...u just see the part thats for public consumption. All you get to see is the hollywood style false front.

As a matter of fact, its just one tiny little bitty detail but it is official policy for Bushs White house to push out fake news stories as if they are real. Of course the GAO told him it was illegal to do that...but he basically said "so what" and increased the budget for this illegal operation. Armstrong Williams was the tiniest little bitty tip of the iceberg.


read for yourself....im going to hit golf balls today, lol.


google:

Illuminati
Moneymasters
Federal Reserve fraud (monopoly men)(creaturee from Jekyll Island)
Bilderbergers
Trilateral Commission
Skull and Bones
Council on Foreign Relations
Club of Rome
New World Order (overall name for the elite control movement)
You are a funny dude!

[johnnyironboard]

Boone Pickens: U.S. In Energy Crisis Article By Steve Toon Published Jun 10, 2008



Billionaire oilman T. Boone Pickens says energy is in a crisis in the U.S. and should be the No. 1 campaign issue for the presidential candidates. Pickens spoke at Oil and Gas Investor?s Energy Capital Forum in Houston today. ?Energy is not a debate; it?s a crisis for this country,? Pickens said. ?You cannot continue to do this. We?re 12 years away from disaster and the guys running for president don?t get it. The candidates don?t understand the problem.? The 80-year-old former owner of Mesa Petroleum, which he sold in the mid-1990s, said the U.S. currently pays out $700 billion per year on oil imports?72% of total consumption?and will increase to $10 trillion annually within 10 years if the pattern continues. The energy crisis is a result of decades of lack of leadership that has led to a break down. Now, ?somebody has to show up to fix it because we?re going on the wrong path.? Pickens chided Democrat candidate Sen. Barack Obama for ?throwing around the windfall profits tax like a piece of balsa wood. ?I don?t think the senator knows anything about energy. He sounds good for about two minutes.? Republican candidate Sen. John McCain received little more support. ?I don?t know how much he knows either. He wants to lower the gas tax during the summer. What the hell is he talking about? Will that fix anything?? Pickens said he is not impressed by either candidate on energy issues and plans to elevate the issue into this year?s presidential election campaign through a series of television ads talking about energy. ?I?m going to force this into this campaign. We?ll see if I have the credibility to force it into the debate.? The price of oil is more likely to reach $150 per barrel before it reaches $120, he said, and believes that is a necessary event to force a change in thinking in the American mindset. ?The more gas goes down the more you send a signal that there?s enough and to buy more. It would be better for the country if the price goes up.? Americans must experience an attitude change to give everything a chance. He said there is ?no question? that America must embrace alternate energy sources to alleviate the $700-billion transfer of wealth out of the country to oil imports. ?People are going to start to come to grips with change. This country is not going to go to its knees and get screwed in a bad deal,? referring to oil imports. Ethanol is ?an ugly baby but it?s ours and it will move cars,? he said, emphasizing that he prefers the less-than-perfect fuel over imported oil. Biofuels, however, will never account for more than 10% of the U.S.? energy needs, he predicts. The belief that the Saudi Arabians can twist the spigot on oil production by adding an additional 2 million barrels a day to lower global prices is a false assumption, he said. ?I don?t think the Saudis have two quarts a day of added capacity. They?re selling us all they?ve got.? Pickens said the abundance of recent natural gas discoveries in the U.S. is divine intervention and foresees a short-term solution in which natural gas replaces gasoline and diesel in American?s cars. Pickens himself owns such a car that he refills through an attachment in his garage from his home?s natural gas line. The Port of Los Angeles is converting thousands of big-rig trucks to natural gas and municipalities nationwide are doing the same with their city vehicles. Converting one diesel trash truck, he said, equals removing 325 cars from the roads. At today?s prices, the price to fill up with natural gas correlates to about $1.25 per gallon.

The ability to use natural gas as a transportation fuel, though, can only be achieved if the need for it to power utilities is diminished. Wind power, an energy source Pickens is investing heavily in, can provide that buffer by adding up to 200,000 megawatts of energy usage to the grid, or approximately 20% of current U.S. demand. ?It?s going to happen because it has to happen,? Pickens said. ?It?s a renewable source we can live with. People don?t like the towers but that?s too bad because we?ve got to have it.? Wind towers ?go over pretty well in the central part of the U.S.,? he said, where residents are eager for jobs. A corridor extending from Sweetwater, Texas, up through the Great Plains into Canada is ideal for harnessing wind power. Pickens has set up operations in Pampa, Texas, where he is building a wind farm. Pampa is going to be the wind capital of the U.S. because of his project, he said, and is adding 2,000 wind-related jobs to the area. Small communities throughout middle America will be reborn because of the wind industry, he portends. ?It will be an unbelievable revitalization of rural America.? He said up to this point Americans have not been forced to consider alternate energy sources. ?We are going to have changes,? he said, ?and they?ll come very fast.?

[johnnyironboard]

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2234&mn=117699&pt=msg&mid=5087246


good post on Chinese demand growth.

[johnnyironboard]

http://www.pickensplan.com/

Boone Pickens plan- at least he has one. I met Boone in Amarillo back in 1989 the guy has energy like I've never seen. He's 80 and wants to work for ten more years to see thing work. He's a billionaire and is doing it for the one's he leaves behind.

[johnnyironboard]

My trading incorparates the following two time tested maxims "the trend is your friend" and "buy panic and sell hysteria" now what does that mean? It means of backtesting back to 1920 the most profitable approach I've found to stock market investing is get long when the S&P 500(I used the Dow from 1920 to 1960- the results are essentially the same) makes a 20 week high and sell (short- or stay flat) when it makes a 50 week low. During bear markets history shows all sectors lose- except gold which is 50:50. Now I make an exception with 1/3 of my money- when long and I see hysteria (that is subjective but I use put/call ratio's,AAII bull bear surveys, and NYSE bullish percent) I can sell 1/3 of my longs- the reverse is true when short when I see panic I let allow 1/3 buying. What am I doing now?

I sold all but my gold stocks in Jan of this year when the S&P made a 50 week low and bought SH which is a bear fund I'm in the process of covering all my shorts and between Friday and Monday will get long the following oil and gas stocks:

CVX
BP
OXY
APA
the four above are solid value plays.
CHK
XTO
these two are shale basin plays that have been hammered.

Peak oil isn't going away and now is a great chance to buy the leading companies in the sector.

[Fifty+]

Very interesting post and thanks for posting it. I often wonder about the big picture and Mother Nature. Is there not a greater result from pulling all this oil from within the earth and putting it into the atmosphere then simply transportation and heating? Will we suck every drop from within our earth before we mandate change? It seems that mankind has to hit bottom before we actually do something.

[johnnyironboard]

Very interesting post and thanks for posting it. I often wonder about the big picture and Mother Nature. Is there not a greater result from pulling all this oil from within the earth and putting it into the atmosphere then simply transportation and heating? Will we suck every drop from within our earth before we mandate change? It seems that mankind has to hit bottom before we actually do something.

http://www.dieoff.org/page125.htm

Duncan thinks we will hit bottom but not recover.

[Ed_Nauseum]

The energy stocks do look interesting. Oil and Nat Gas prices seem to have settled...however, all is predicated on the depth of a global recession. Seeing you follow the industry, any thoughts on Natural Gas Trusts or the OIH? And how about Aubrey McClendon...wow, just wow. BTW, I took a small position in PBR.

Also, we need Fitty to move this thread to the OV35 misc...

[johnnyironboard]

The energy stocks do look interesting. Oil and Nat Gas prices seem to have settled...however, all is predicated on the depth of a global recession. Seeing you follow the industry, any thoughts on Natural Gas Trusts or the OIH? And how about Aubrey McClendon...wow, just wow. BTW, I took a small position in PBR.

Also, we need Fitty to move this thread to the OV35 misc...

OIH is ok here- BPT is very interesting. I think the takeout swaps are crazy- to me it's like buying home owners insurance that covers broken windows but not a complete wipeout. I insure against the worse and hope for the best- not the other way around.

[Baldiewonkanobi]

I sell alternate fueled big rigs. In the past month I have listened to T Boone give keynote speeches in 3 So Calif green conventions. Other than being a self made Billionaire, oil/gas man, full of youthful vigor....he is all about making T Boone richer. If greening the planet along the way using your tax money to do it....so be it. Here in Californis we bend over and grab our ankles and hand out grant money (tax money) to go alternate fuel. T Boone owns all the LNG fueling stations and 50% of the largest CNG/LNG truck engine manufacture. I have some 60 rigs on order with his engines.

Hybrid electric is our future. Plug in, brake Regen, and engine (gas/diesel/hydrogen) generators. Batteries are getting cheaper, lighter and longer lasting.

Attached is a diesel/electric hybrid which I sell. If we can get the greenies to swallow the "D" word portion.....Baldie is gonna be a rich man.

[Tishalicious]

I sell alternate fueled big rigs. In the past month I have listened to T Boone give keynote speeches in 3 So Calif green conventions. Other than being a self made Billionaire, oil/gas man, full of youthful vigor....he is all about making T Boone richer. If greening the planet along the way using your tax money to do it....so be it. Here in Californis we bend over and grab our ankles and hand out grant money (tax money) to go alternate fuel. T Boone owns all the LNG fueling stations and 50% of the largest CNG/LNG truck engine manufacture. I have some 60 rigs on order with his engines.

Hybrid electric is our future. Plug in, brake Regen, and engine (gas/diesel/hydrogen) generators. Batteries are getting cheaper, lighter and longer lasting.

Attached is a diesel/electric hybrid which I sell. If we can get the greenies to swallow the "D" word portion.....Baldie is gonna be a rich man.


Sweet!

I've been watching the hybrids and waiting for a diesel one - much better economy than petrol (gas) so it seems an obviously good idea to me.


My thoughts on peak oil / greenhouse / etc...

Even if all that stuff is hokum - we are wasting resources to live the way we have been - so if you can't swallow Mr Gore's powerpoint presentation you have to see the fact that we are not being as economical as we currently have to the technology for.

[johnnyironboard]

Jim Rogers comments:

Commodity bull market will last longer: Jim Rogers
2008-10-20 10:45:00 Print | Email | Discuss | Related Stories

SINGAPORE: Credit crisis, collapse of banking majors and inflation have led stock and commodities markets to the depths of despair in the last one month. Now that the world is gripped by recession fears, is the commodities bull market all over?

Not really. Jim Rogers, one of the best known global commodities investors, says the commodity bull market will last longer thanks to the global economic meltdown.

?We have had 8-9 periods of forced liquidation over the past 100-150 years wherein everything was liquidated without regard to fundamentals. This is such a period,? Rogers told Commodity Online in an exclusive e-mail interview.

Read Jim Rogers on commodities here!

Rogers words on commodities are Biblical. More than that, he is the well-known author of books like Hot Commodities and A Bull in China, a must read for anyone who wants investing wisdom.

Rogers, the best known global guru on commodities, said the commodities market is these days hit by the prospects of growth slowdown in countries like China and and the large-scame economic pessimism in the US and Europe.

?Historically the things which have come out best on the other side are things where the fundamental have been unimpaired. Commodities are the only thing I know with unimpaired fundamentals,? he said.

In fact, Rogers said, what is happening means there will be even less supply of everything in the future.

?The cyclical demand for commodities may slow, but the secular supply will be badly affected so the commodity bull market will last longer and go further in the end,? he added.